The precision of the Reuters / Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. A sample of 1,660 registered voters (age 18 and over) was interviewed online. Non-aligned Registered Voters are defined as those individuals not indicating a candidate preference.
The precision of the Reuters / Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. A sample of 1,660 registered voters (age 18 and over) was interviewed online. Non-aligned Registered Voters are defined as those individuals not indicating a candidate preference.
The precision of the Reuters / Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. A sample of 1,660 registered voters (age 18 and over) was interviewed online. Non-aligned Registered Voters are defined as those individuals not indicating a candidate preference.
Base for Voting Intention: 1,419 Likely Voters (LV)
Ipsos Poll conducted for Reuters CONVENTIONS DAY 14 (9.9.12) These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Sept 5-9, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,660 American registered voters (age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for all respondents. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix. The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of a per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
Non-aligned Registered Voters are defined as those individuals not indicating a candidate preference at the Presidential Voting Intention question (Q3 below).
POLITICAL AND ISSUES QUESTIONS
Q1. Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs Right direction 31% 56% 8% 16% 14% Wrong track 57% 26% 88% 68% 68% Dont know 12% 18% 3% 15% 18%
Q2. Generally speaking, would you say the following things are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs The national economy Right direction 20% 37% 6% 9% 4% Wrong track 72% 54% 92% 79% 80% Dont know 7% 9% 2% 12% 16% Employment and jobs Right direction 27% 46% 8% 21% 8% Wrong track 66% 47% 89% 69% 75% Dont know 7% 8% 3% 10% 18% Healthcare system Right direction 32% 59% 6% 20% 13% Wrong track 58% 31% 89% 64% 70% Dont know 9% 10% 5% 16% 17% Immigration policy Right direction 25% 41% 9% 20% 12% Wrong track 56% 35% 82% 55% 53% Dont know 19% 24% 9% 25% 36% National deficit Right direction 15% 27% 4% 6% 2% Wrong track 72% 52% 93% 78% 70% Dont know 14% 21% 3% 16% 28% Education system Right direction 27% 42% 14% 18% 13% Wrong track 58% 44% 75% 63% 64% Dont know 14% 14% 11% 18% 23% 1146 19 th St., NW, Suite 200 Washington, DC 20036 (202) 463-7300
All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Independents (RV) National politics Right direction 16% 28% 5% 11% 10% Wrong track 67% 53% 86% 69% 66% Dont know 16% 19% 9% 20% 25% American foreign policy Right direction 28% 48% 8% 25% 8% Wrong track 48% 25% 75% 48% 51% Dont know 24% 27% 17% 27% 42% Fuel and gas prices Right direction 8% 15% 3% 4% 1% Wrong track 84% 75% 93% 86% 79% Dont know 7% 10% 4% 9% 20% Your cost of living Right direction 17% 26% 8% 10% 10% Wrong track 75% 64% 88% 79% 69% Dont know 8% 10% 4% 11% 21%
Q3. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and [INSERT CANDIDATE BELOW AND ROTATE LIST] Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats 47% 45% 85% 7% 31% Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans 43% 40% 6% 88% 35% Wouldnt vote 1% 4% 2% 1% 6% None / Other 2% 3% 2% 1% 9% Dont know / Refused 7% 8% 6% 4% 19%
Q4. In your opinion, which candidate for President has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following?
Q5. When you think about abortion, which of the following is closest to your personal opinion?
All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs Abortion should be illegal in all cases 16% 11% 24% 14% 20% Abortion should be illegal in most cases 27% 17% 42% 28% 21% Abortion should be legal in most cases 23% 30% 15% 25% 18% Abortion should be legal in all cases 22% 31% 13% 19% 18% Unsure 11% 12% 6% 13% 24%
Q6. As you may know, the US federal budget has a significant deficit. Here are the main expenses for the government. In your view, which of the following areas can we afford to cut back on? (Select all that apply)
All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs Social Security 10% 7% 14% 12% 10% Medicare 10% 5% 16% 13% 7% Defense & the Military 34% 43% 23% 36% 22% Education 11% 4% 21% 12% 7% Alternative energy development 29% 15% 47% 25% 22% Law enforcement 10% 9% 10% 17% 9% Other 27% 22% 34% 25% 22% None 20% 25% 14% 23% 24%
Q7. Would you say you are generally favorable or unfavorable towards these public figures?
8. President Barack Obama All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs Very favorable 30% 58% 4% 12% 5% Somewhat favorable 15% 23% 5% 18% 11% Lean towards favorable 9% 8% 5% 21% 25% Total favorable 54% 89% 13% 52% 41% Lean towards unfavorable 11% 5% 17% 18% 25% Somewhat unfavorable 6% 1% 11% 7% 7% Very unfavorable 29% 5% 59% 23% 27% Total unfavorable 46% 11% 87% 48% 59%
b. Vice President Joe Biden All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs Very favorable 16% 30% 4% 3% 1% Somewhat favorable 18% 31% 3% 16% 9% Lean towards favorable 17% 20% 9% 31% 18% Total favorable 51% 82% 15% 50% 28% Lean towards unfavorable 16% 10% 20% 26% 31% Somewhat unfavorable 9% 3% 16% 8% 16% Very unfavorable 24% 5% 49% 17% 25% Total unfavorable 49% 18% 85% 50% 72%
c. Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs Very favorable 17% 5% 39% 7% 8% Somewhat favorable 17% 4% 34% 15% 7% Lean towards favorable 14% 7% 18% 26% 19% Total favorable 49% 16% 91% 47% 34% Lean towards unfavorable 16% 22% 5% 23% 29% Somewhat unfavorable 12% 20% 2% 15% 11% Very unfavorable 23% 42% 3% 14% 26% Total unfavorable 51% 84% 9% 53% 66%
d. Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs Very favorable 18% 3% 45% 5% 2% Somewhat favorable 13% 6% 22% 14% 13% Lean towards favorable 16% 8% 20% 31% 15% Total favorable 48% 17% 87% 50% 31% Lean towards unfavorable 19% 25% 9% 26% 35% Somewhat unfavorable 10% 16% 2% 12% 9% Very unfavorable 23% 42% 2% 12% 25% Total unfavorable 52% 83% 13% 50% 69%
CONVENTION QUESTIONS
Q8. In your opinion, which candidate for President is stronger on each of the following?
All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs Represents America Barack Obama, Democrat 44% 77% 8% 36% 16% Mitt Romney, Republican 36% 6% 78% 28% 12% Neither 11% 8% 9% 15% 34% Dont know 10% 8% 5% 22% 38% Smart enough for the job Barack Obama, Democrat 46% 82% 7% 36% 17% Mitt Romney, Republican 36% 6% 80% 28% 15% Neither 7% 4% 7% 12% 28% Dont know 11% 8% 6% 25% 40% Has the right values Barack Obama, Democrat 45% 80% 7% 37% 16% Mitt Romney, Republican 36% 6% 79% 24% 17% Neither 9% 6% 8% 18% 31% Dont know 10% 8% 6% 21% 36% Will protect American jobs Barack Obama, Democrat 42% 76% 7% 32% 12% Mitt Romney, Republican 35% 6% 76% 27% 13% Neither 11% 8% 11% 17% 35% Dont know 12% 10% 6% 25% 40% A man of faith Barack Obama, Democrat 31% 56% 5% 23% 9% Mitt Romney, Republican 43% 18% 80% 36% 30% Neither 10% 9% 8% 11% 25% Dont know 16% 17% 7% 29% 37% Would be fun to meet in person Barack Obama, Democrat 48% 79% 14% 42% 23% Mitt Romney, Republican 21% 4% 47% 11% 10% Neither 19% 9% 24% 28% 35% Dont know 13% 8% 15% 18% 32% Can be effective in Washington Barack Obama, Democrat 39% 71% 5% 29% 17% Mitt Romney, Republican 35% 6% 76% 29% 10% Neither 14% 11% 12% 21% 35% Dont know 13% 12% 7% 21% 38%
ACTIVATED AUG 28 ONWARDS Q9. The Republican National Convention is currently under way [AUG 31 ONWARDS: CHANGE TO was recently held] in Tampa, Florida. How much, if anything, have you seen or heard or read about the Republican National Convention?
All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs A great deal 23% 20% 34% 12% 5% Some 34% 31% 36% 49% 25% A little bit 28% 33% 22% 26% 37% Nothing at all 15% 16% 8% 13% 33%
ASK ALL WHO HAVE HEARD AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT (BASE = 1,444) Q10. And what is your evaluation of the Republican National Convention so far?
ACTIVATED SEPT 4 ONWARDS Q11. The Democratic National Convention is currently under way [SEPT 7 ONWARDS: CHANGE TO was recently held] in Charlotte, North Carolina. How much, if anything, have you seen or heard or read about the Democratic National Convention?
All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs A great deal 22% 29% 19% 11% 7% Some 36% 38% 34% 47% 30% A little bit 25% 21% 29% 26% 29% Nothing at all 17% 12% 18% 16% 35%
ASK ALL WHO HAVE HEARD AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT (BASE = 1,374) Q12. And what is your evaluation of the Democratic National Convention so far?
ASK ALL WHO HAVE HEARD AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT ABOUT EITHER CONVENTION. TO BE ACTIVATED AUG 28 ONWARDS Q13. And where have you seen or heard or read about the Convention?
All Registered Voters (RV) Democrats (RV) Republicans (RV) Independents (RV) Non-aligned RVs Television 87% 90% 86% 81% 79% Newspaper 32% 30% 33% 35% 27% Social media like Facebook or Twitter 22% 23% 20% 24% 21% Radio 21% 19% 27% 16% 12% Blogs 7% 8% 5% 7% 3% News websites 34% 36% 31% 38% 24% Conversations with friends, family, or colleagues 27% 28% 27% 20% 13% Other 3% 5% 2% 2% 12%
The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribuon condioned on the parameter , i.e., Y$Bin(n,), where n is the sie of our sample. In this seng, Y counts the number of yes, or 1, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion . This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is ones knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution ((/y)(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
Our credibility interval for is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on n(0). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and = n / . Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
+
V n
..
For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting 2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sies are below.