POLLING

MEMORANDUM

FR: Fritz Wenzel, President, Wenzel Strategies RE: Survey of likely voters statewide in Minnesota regarding the 2012 race for U.S. Senate
Wenzel Strategies is a public opinion research firm founded in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio, serving political, government, non-profit, media, and corporate clients nationwide. The firm conducted a telephone survey of likely voters in Minnesota September 4-6, 2012, and included 500 respondents. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.36 percentage points.

The Wenzel Strategies survey of likely General Election voters statewide in Minnesota shows incumbent Democratic Senator Amy Klobuchar holds a 14-point lead over Republican challenger Kurt Bills. She leads Bills by a 52% to 38% margin, with 11% undecided. Klobuchar wins support from 86% of DFL members, while Bills wins 74% support from Republicans. Among independents, Klobuchar leads Bills by a 47% to 38% margin, with 15% undecided in the race. Among women, Klobuchar leads by a 56% to 33% advantage, but the race is significantly tighter among men, as Klobuchar leads by just 4 points, 47% to 43%. The race is closer than might otherwise be indicated by the survey data, as 55% said Klobuchar deserves re-election and 59% give her good job marks. The fact that she wins only 52% support in a ballot test against Bills is indicative of headwinds facing incumbents running for re-election to both houses of Congress this year. Just 45% said they think things in general in Minnesota are headed in the right direction, while 48% said things are off on the wrong track and 7% are unsure on the question. These headwinds stem from widespread perception that the national economy is failing to recover; commodity prices for such things as gasoline and foodstuffs continues to rise far faster than wages; public confidence in the ability of Congress to solve the serious problems facing the nation is near all-time lows; and nagging concerns that the Middle East is unstable and could explode at any time, creating a whole new set of challenges for the U.S. that we are ill-equipped to manage right now. These concerns could become a greater drag on the Klobuchar campaign before Election Day, especially if things get even worse. Incumbent Democrats nationally are paying a higher price for this overall dissatisfaction than are Republicans, our surveys show, in part because the political party of the U.S. President tends to benefit from public sentiment during good times but also suffer during bad times. This factor is also reflected in President Obamas struggle in recent polling to keep up with Republican challenger Mitt Romney, both in national polls and surveys of key swing states. In terms of favorability ratings, Klobuchar is seen favorably by 66%, while 29% hold an unfavorable opinion of her and 5% dont know enough about her to have formed an opinion one way or the other. By contrast, Bills is seen favorable by 19%, while 23% hold an unfavorable opinion of him and 58% dont know enough about him to have formed an opinion. If Bills is able to significantly increase his profile in a favorable way, this race could change, and change quickly. Like many other Senate races around the country, this one is bound to be a referendum on Klobuchars support of the Obama agenda. The more voters know about Bills, the more informed a vote they will be able to cast in judgment of her, and the more comfortable they may become in electing him to serve in the U.S. Senate.

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