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August30,2012
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WhattheMarketSees:NegativeOpticsCauseForDepressedInvestorSentiment 1. LegacyTelecomSpaceUnderPressureSellsideandinvestmentcommunityiswellawareofsecular operationalpressuresascustomerscutthecordandinvestorshavegottenburnedbadlybyseverallarge blowups(2yr.SharePerformancePeaktoTrough:FTRdown67%,FRPdown85%,ALSKdown85%). 2. HighlyLeveredLeveredat~5xEBITDA. 3. NodividendOneoftheonlylegacytelecomnamesgloballynottoofferadividend. 4. NoFCFAgain,ararityinthetelecomspaceandFCFisakeymetricinvestorsfollow. 5. OrphanStockNonaturalshareholderbaseorcompsforacompanythatisamixofbothlegacyconverged telecomoperationsandhighgrowthcarrierneutralpremiumcolocationdatacenterfacilities. a. NaturalshareholdersofILEC/wirelessandColoareverydifferent.Telecominvestorsacceptrevenue declinesbutplaceahugeamountofemphasison1)FCFand2)returnofcapitaltoshareholdersvia dividends.Meanwhile,datacenterinvestorslikelyarentpayingattentiontoCBBand/ordonthavean interestinowningthelegacytelecombusiness(majorityofrevenueandearningstoday). 6. HistoryofBadCapitalAllocation/StyleDriftFailedinvestmentintoBroadwing(nationwidefiberbackbone network)atheightoflate90sTMTbubbleburnedinvestorsandleftCBBsaddledwith$2.5Bofdebtafterselling itforfarlessseveralyearslater. 7. ExitofLargeShareholderPeninsulaCapitalAdvisorswentfromCBBslargestholderat6/30/11tozeroshares at12/31/11. 8. LittleEnthusiasmfromSellsideOf10wellfollowedsellsidebrokeragesthatcoverCBB,only3rateasabuy. 9. SayonPayAnotherrecentnegativeheadline.Companywasoneofonly45lastyearwhosecompensation packagetoexecutiveswasnotapprovedbyshareholders. WhattheMarketisMissing:KeyPoints/Mitigants 1. LegacyTelecomSpaceUnderPressurePeerblowupsreflectsteepstartingvaluationpointsdrivenbydividend yields(FTRandALSK)andM&Aexpectations(FRPrumoredtarget).Operationalpressuresanderosionreflect thesecompaniesspecificvulnerabilityandexposuretodeclinesincoppervoiceaccesslines,costrestructurings
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andsubsidyrevenues(atriskfrompendingreform).CBBhasdeminimusexposuretosubsidyrevenueandhas keptrevsalmostflatinlegacywirelinebusinessbypushingoutfiberproductandIPTVtooffsetvoicerevenue declines.Peersharedevaluationsreflectedoperationaldegradationandconsequentdividendcutsaswellas highstartingvaluations(~8xEV/EBITDAforFTRandALSK). HighlyLeveredLeverageismanageablegivensubstantialFCFgenerationoflegacybusinessesandassetvalue ofdatacentersegment.Largedebtloadwillsubstantiallybenefittheequityinthecaseofarerating. NodividendManagementhasindicatedtheywouldbewillingtopayadividendifattractiveandsuperior opportunitiestodeployFCFviadatacentergrowthcapexnolongermakesenseorareavailable. NoFCFNoFCFonlyaftermanagementelectstoreinvestallFCFsbackintodatacenterviagrowthcapex.CBB doesgeneratesubstantialfreecashflowsfromhighmarginrecurringrevsandcashtaxshelterprovidedby largeNOLsbeforeCyrusgrowthcapex. OrphanStockUnlikelytoremainthatway.ManagementhasguidedtoanIPOofdatacentersegmentand IncentivePlan(disclosedin8K)providessubstantialincentiveforexecutivestodoso.Separationoflegacy telecomassetsanddatacentersshouldallowforsubstantialreratingofsharesasthetwodistinctbusinesses findnaturalshareholderbases. HistoryofBadCapitalAllocation/StyleDriftPriorCEO.Thisteamhasdemonstratedimpressivedisciplineand focusuponshareholdervaluevialargesharebuybacks,theopportunisticacquisitionofCyrusOneand subsequentinvestmentinbothhiringmarqueeindustrypersonnelandfundingcapexforitsrapidgrowth. ExitofLargeShareholderPeninsulaportfoliomanagerTedWeschlerwashiredbyBuffettandlookstohave exitedallpositionsinhisfundashetransitionedtoBerkshire. LittleEnthusiasmfromSellsideSentimentisgenerallyapendulum,sobullsgetfreeoptiononitswingingthe otherwayfromhere.NegativesentimentisreflectedinpricetargetsandcommentaryandneglectsSOTPvalue andpotentialupsidefromREITconversion.Currentsellsideapproachcontributestoanattractiveentrypointfor deepdrillerswhoindependentlyassessthevalueofthecorebusinesses,reratingpotentialfrompotential corporateactions,andoverallrisk/returnfromaprospectiveinvestment. SayonPayHassincebeenresolvedandinconsequentialtoequitystory.
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TheBullCase 1. Sumofthepartsvalueisintheprocessofbeingunlockedandofferssubstantialupsideandhugemarginof safetytoequityinvestorsattheselevels.Markingvarioussegmentstotradingpeermultiplesdemonstrates substantialdiscountintodaysmarketvaluationandpotentialforsharestodouble. a. TodayCBBtradesonconsolidatedEBITDAmultipleatonlyslightpremiumtopeers.Sharepriceof $4.50impliesanEV/FwdEBITDAmultipleof6.7x,aslightpremiumtopeers(6.2x).Thisvaluation disregardsmuchhighervalueofCyrusOnesegmentEBITDA. b. DataCenterPartialIPOplannedforendof12.Mgmtisproactivelylookingtounlockshareholdervalue viacorporateactionsandseparationofdatacentersegmentshouldachievethis. c. CyrusLikelytobeaREIT.MgmthasfiledanS11withREITdesignation.Comparabledatacenterpeers w/REITdesignationtrade16x18xEV/forwardEBITDA. d. LegacytelecombizcanpaybigdivOncedatacentersegmentisseparate,cashflowsfromlegacy currentlyfundingCyrusgrowthcapexcanbedeployedtowardsahealthydividend.Yieldshouldsupport anEBITDAmultipleinlinewith(ifnotinexcessof)otherlegacypeers. i. Mgmthasalludedtopotentialfordividendonrecentearningscalls 2. LegacybusinessesgeneratesubstantialandpredictableFCFsandarevaluableSubscriptionrevenuemodel withhighmargins,minimalcapitalintensityandcashtaxshieldviasubstantialNOLbalance(leftoverfrom Broadwing).ReinvestmentintofiberfootprintandIPTVhasminimizedrevenueerosiononwirelinesidewhile costdisciplinehasoptimizedmarginsandFCFs. 3. DataCentersegmentCyrusOneisacrownjewelasset;Likelyworth$2BstandaloneRapidlygrowing premiumdatacenterproviderthatcaterstoenterpriseclientelewithaspecificfocusupontheenergyvertical.
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Companyboastssubstantialindustryexpertiseandindustryleadingchurn.Customerlistincludesnearlyall supermajorsandmajoroilandgasfirmsintheworld. 4. ManagementincentivesarestronglyalignedwithshareholdersCEOJackCassidyholds6.8mshares(3.4%) andotherkeyexecutivesparticipateinanincentiveplanthattiesabigpaydaytoaCyrustransactionthat valuesdatacentersegmentat$2B(seebelowforfurtherdetailsandcalculation). KeyRisks 1. Delayinspin/marketobservationofSOTPdiscountVisibilityislimitedastowhenthemarketwillcorrect substantialdiscountintodaysshares.PartialIPOofdatacentersegmentasREITvehicleshouldhelpbut completeseparationofbusinessesisstill1year+awaysomarketcouldtakeitstimeinassigningmarket multiplestoCBBbizsegments. 2. CyrusfailstoqualifyasREITImpliessmalldownsidetotodaysshareprice(seetodaysdownsidecase). OpportunityOverview:Whatdrivestheupside? 1. Atfirstglance,CBBlookslikeotherlegacytelecosCBBaccesslineerosion,organicrevgrowth,profitability andvaluationappearinlinewithpeergrouponaconsolidatedbasis(WSconsensus#s) AccessLinesContinuetoErode(VoiceDisconnects)
FY12P Y-o-Y Access Line Loss
9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 7.7% 7.4% 7.1%
OrganicRevenuesareFlattoDecliningForMost
FY12P Organic Rev Growth
4.0% 2.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.7% 6.5%
6.3% 4.9%
Rural
4.4%
1.1%
6.0% 8.0%
OrganicEBITDAtrendsgenerallyworsethanRevs
FY12P Organic EBITDA Growth
4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 0.1% 2.7% 4.4% 6.9% 7.6% 3.4% 1.2%
EV/EBITDARatio6.2xFwdTodayatPeerAvg
TEV / FY12P EBITDA
8.0x 7.0x 6.0x 5.0x 4.0x 3.0x 2.0x 1.0x 0.0x 7.2x 7.0x 6.7x 6.3x 6.1x 5.6x 5.3x
Avg: 6.2x
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FTR
$12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $6.00 $4.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00
Aug10 Sep10 Oct10 Nov10 Dec10 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11 Jun11 Jul11 Aug11 Sep11 Oct11 Nov11 Dec11 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12
ALSK
Peakto Trough: Down67%
$14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00
FRP
$30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00
Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11 Jun11 Jul11 Aug11 Sep11 Oct11 Nov11 Dec11 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12
$2.00 $0.00
Aug10 Sep10 Oct10 Nov10 Dec10 Jan11 Feb11 Mar11 Apr11 May11 Jun11 Jul11 Aug11 Sep11 Oct11 Nov11 Dec11 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12
CyrusStats Ann.Churn
Cyrus
15.2%
22.5%
Sq.Ft.(ink)
YoYGrowth
Revenues
YoYGrowth
$184.7
NM
$228.7
23.8%
$291.9
27.6%
EBITDA
Margin YoYGrowth
$101.2
54.8% NM
$122.1
53.4% 20.7%
$154.7
53.0% 26.7%
Note:HighCostSupportDataprovidedinFederalCommunicationsCommissionResponsetoUnitedStatesHouseofRepresentativesCommittee onEnergyandCommerceUniversalServiceFundDataRequestofJune22,2011
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3,606
934
70.7%
4.8x
6.8x
6.7x
6.6x
No Div
NA
(1) Pro forma for acquisition of Paetec (2) Pro forma for acquisition of Savvis (3) Pro forma for acquisition of Surewest
CBB TEV CB Share Price B (x) FD Shares CB Market Cap B (-) Cash (-) N OL's (10% disc., $1.1B nom $'s) (+ D ) ebt & Pfd (+ $'s to fully fund pension ) CBB Enterprise Value D ata Center Segments TEV G (6.20.12 report) S PiperJaffray (8.8.12 report) MS (2.10.12 m odel) UB (8.13.12 report) S B AML (8.7.12 report) G abelli (2.9.12 report) Avg. Value % of CB TEV Today B
M ethod M etric
$4.50 207.6 $934.1 (4.1) << As of 6/30/12 (250.0) << As of 6/30/12 2,681.6 244.1 $3,605.7
M ult. Ent. Value
<< As of 6/30/12 << As of 6/30/12
EV / EV / EV / EV / EV /
FY13P EB ITD A FY13P EB ITD A FY12P EB ITD A FY13P EB ITD A FY13P EB ITD A
Notes
Assum not a R es EIT Pre-R EIT announcem ent Pre-R EIT announcem ent Assum R es EIT status R EIT assum ption not clear Assum R es EIT status
EV / FY13P EB ITD A
@ REIT Peers
CB TEV B (-) Cyrus One TEV Implied Legacy T eleCo TEV CB FY12P Legacy Teleco EB B ITD A TEV / FY12P EBITD M A ultiple
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Leg Biz Ent. Value (-) Debt (3x FY12P) (-) Pension (-) Pfd Implied Legacy Equity FY12P FCF to Equity Implied FCF Yield FY13P FCF to Equity Implied FCF Yield
FCF Yield Implied Equity Value Delta from Curr. - ($39m) Delta Per Share % upside to today's Px
(1) Not Co.'s EBITDA definition. Includes pension expense and allocates corp cost.
Interxion
1,501
1,281
11.5%
1.5x
16.7%
21.0%
15.9%
20.8%
6.0%
15.1x
13.0x
10.8x
Telec ityGroup
1,977
1,771
10.4%
1.6x
16.6%
20.6%
16.5%
20.7%
8.0%
18.1x
15.1x
12.5x
Rackspace
$7,290
$7,356
-0.9%
-0.1x
28.7%
29.8%
23.6%
27.5%
9.6%
22.6x
16.2x
12.6x
Average Median
1.3x 1.5x
20.5% 18.3%
23.5% 21.8%
17.7% 16.2%
21.6% 20.8%
7.8% 7.7%
17.6x 16.6x
14.1x 14.1x
11.5x 11.6x
Cyrus One
23.8%
20.7%
25.2%
25.9%
3.0%
(1) May look unfamiliar as most peers report c hurn on monthly basis.
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Kevin Timmons Michael Duckett Bill Williams Josh Snowhorn Gary Wojtaszek Kimberly Sheehy Christopher Opat John Hatem
CTO COO VP of Network Svcs VP and GM of Interconection President CAO for Finance & HR VP of Corp. IT Systems VP of Construction
Microsoft, Yahoo CoreLink, Terremark Terremark Terremark Cincy Bell Parent Cincy Bell Parent JPMorgan / Bear Stearns JPMorgan / Bear Stearns
Ran data centers at those two firms, highly regarded / premier industry exec Former Pres and COO of CoreLink, SVP at Terremark before that Interconnection expertise as former VP of IP Architecture at Terremark Expertise in interconnection / internet exchange construction (NAP of Americas) Former CFO Former IR 20 years of executive IT experience in financial services Expertise in design and construction of data center facilities
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cum Capex 2.4 5.6 21.9 31.8 54.2 70.1 112.8 156.8 213.4 270.5 316.7 $365.8 Cost Basis $718.0 720.4 723.6 739.9 749.8 772.2 788.1 830.8 874.8 931.4 988.5 1,034.7 $1,083.8 +$500m 1,220.4 1,223.6 1,239.9 1,249.8 1,272.2 1,288.1 1,330.8 1,374.8 1,431.4 1,488.5 1,534.7 $1,583.8 +$1B 1,720.4 1,723.6 1,739.9 1,749.8 1,772.2 1,788.1 1,830.8 1,874.8 1,931.4 1,988.5 2,034.7 $2,083.8
Cost of Accum Capital Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Capex Starting Q1'10 2.4 10.0% 2.4 Q2'10 3.1 2.5 3.1 Q3'10 16.2 2.5 3.2 16.2 Q4'10 9.4 2.6 3.3 16.6 9.4 Q1'11 21.6 2.6 3.3 17.0 9.6 21.6 Q2'11 14.6 2.7 3.4 17.4 9.9 22.1 14.6 Q3'11 41.0 2.8 3.5 17.8 10.1 22.7 15.0 41.0 Q4'11 41.3 2.8 3.6 18.2 10.3 23.2 15.3 42.0 41.3 Q1'12 52.8 2.9 3.7 18.7 10.6 23.8 15.7 43.0 42.3 52.8 Q2'12 52.0 3.0 3.8 19.1 10.8 24.3 16.1 44.0 43.3 54.1 52.0 Q3'12P 39.6 3.0 3.8 19.6 11.1 24.9 16.4 45.1 44.4 55.4 53.3 39.6 Q4'12P $41.4 $3.1 $3.9 $20.1 $11.4 $25.5 $16.8 $46.2 $45.4 $56.7 $54.5 $40.6 $41.4
TEV / Revenue TEV 13,369 3,252 1,383 FY11A 12.52x 11.40x 8.00x 10.64x 11.40x 8.75x
(17.8%) (23.3%)
$2,000
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2. LegacyTelecomBusiness:Thisisgenerallytheharderpartoftheexerciseandsourceofwiderdissentamongst valueinvestors.BelowoutlinesanapproachtodiscerningthevalueofCincylegacytelecombusiness. a. AttractiveproformaFCFGenerationonGoForwardBasisAnalysisbelowassumesproforma leveragetakentoguidedmultiples. i. MinimalcashtaxesgivenNOLs ii. Pensioncashcontributionslikelyconservativegivenrecentlegislationthatallowscompaniesto boostdiscountrate(usingdiscountratebaseduponaverageofpast25yearsinsteadofpast two)usedtodiscountliabilitiesforthepurposeofsettingcompanycontributions iii. Mgmthasindicated23xleveragewouldbeappropriateforstandalonetelecomasset(with higherleveragebetterfortheequitybullcase)
(Re:appropriateleverageforlegacybizstandalone)Wewouldexpectthattheleverageinthelocaltelcowouldhavetobe somewherebetweenatwoandathree(andalotclosertoatwo).CEOJackCassidy,5.03.12
Optimize Value in Legacy (Wireline & Wireless) FY12P Case #1 Leverage EBITDA (1) Debt Interest Rate Interest Expense EBITDA (1) (-) Capex EBITDA - Capex (-) Cash Interest (-) Cash Taxes (-) Pfd Dividend (-) Cash to Pension FCF 2.0x $399 $797 6% $48 $399 (120) $279 (48) (4) (10) (40) $176 Case #2 3.0x $399 $1,196 8% $96 $399 (120) $279 (96) (4) (10) (40) $128
R eturns from D C's - U nlevered CyrusOne Acq Legacy D Operation C Capex (thru D '12) ec $'s Invested Proj. Cyrus Value - R EIT IR (unlevered) R MOI (3 yrs, unlev) $'s Made $'s Invested $526.0 192.0 335.5 $1,053.5 $2,000.0 15.4% 1.90x $946.5
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c. ValuationFloorWouldBeProvidedbyFCFYield20%FCFyieldimplies$2.2BTEV
Implied Equity Val - "3x Lev @ 8%"
Legacy Biz FY12P FCF (/) FCF Yield Implied Equity Value (+) Debt (+) Pension (+) Pfd Implied Legacy Ent Value Multiple of EBITDA
d. ButitisRareforLegacyTeleCotoNotPayaDivCBBdoesntcurrentlypayadividendbutthatisrare intelecom.
North American Telecom Companies on Nasdaq and NYSE over $200m Dividend Payers
Firm Div Y ield
Windstream Consolidated Communications Alaska Communications Frontier Bell Aliant CenturyLink BCE Manitoba Telecom AT&T Verizon TELUS
10.6% 9.5% 9.3% 8.6% 7.2% 7.0% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 3.8%
e. Managementwillcontinuetoworktowardsmaximizingvaluefortheshareholders,bothwithrespect tofurthercorporateactionsandallocationofcapital.Asaleofwirelesssegmentwouldbebullish.
(Re:wirelesssegment)It'shardnottonoticethatsomebodycouldcomeinandbuythatbusinessandjustthesynergyvalue alonewouldbehugelyaccretivetothem.WhenyoulookatourSG&Aversusit'sjustduplicatedinothersIsitforsale?I haveneverfalleninlovewithmyinvestments.Thewirelinebusiness,thewirelessbusiness,theDataCenterbusiness,it'sall basedonshareholdervalue.CEOJackCassidy,2.28.12 f. AFutureDividendisLikely;Implies$2.12.7BTEVforLegacyLegacyFCFsnolongertobeusedto fundCyrusOnegrowthcapexonceseparated.Adividendwouldmaximizelegacyequityvalue. i. RecallCEOislargeshareholder(3.6%ofshares,~$30mstake)andlikelywilllooktomaximize sharevalue ii. Managementcommentarysuggestspotentialforfuturedividend Sodebtreductionwasthereasonwhywedidthis(Cyrusacqandgrowth)anddebtreductionwillbethepurposeforit.And you'llseeitinouractionsthatwe'reveryseriousaboutgettingthetelcotoaleverageratewhereitwillthenbeabletodo thingsthatitwantstodo,whetherthat'spayadividend,orinvestinotherbusinesses,orrolloutitsFiopticsbusiness,orlook atLTE,orlivewiththeassetsthatithas.CEOJackCassidy,5.3.12 Butthecashflowfromthatbusiness(legacyteleco)wouldthenhavetobeusedtoprovidewhateverisinthebestinterest oftheshareholder,whetherthat'sinvestinginfurtherintheFiopticsbusiness,whetherit'sinvestinginanLTEwireless network,whetherit'sinvestinginadividendfortheshareholderIt'sgoingtobewhatever'sinthebestinterestofthe shareholder.CEOJackCassidy,2.9.12
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PuttingItAllTogether:ReturnsProfile 1. Current:Sharesareup~50%YTDonrecentCyrusspinnewsbutTEV/EBITDAmultipleremainsonlyinlinewith otherlegacytelecosonaconsolidatedbasis,reflectingthedeepdiscountCBBtradedatlastyearrelativeto peers.ValuationtodayreflectsaCCorpmultipleonCyrusOneandthelowendofpeermultiplesonCBBlegacy business(FTR@5.3xEBITDA;25%PFFCFyieldforCBBlegacybiz)despitemateriallybettertrendsandFCF generation. 2. TodaysBaseCase:SOTPFrameworkw/legacyandCyruseachatdiscounttopeers:AssignsCyrus1xdiscount todatacenterpeersFY12PEBITDAmultipleof17.0x.Assignslegacytelecombusinessdiscount(5.5x)topeer telecommultipleof6.2xFY12PEBITDA. 3. TodaysDownside:Mostlypricedin:StocktodayalreadyappearstoreflectaCCorpmultipleforCyrusOneand 25%FCFyieldforlegacytelecombusiness.Veryconservativeassumptions. a. AdditionaldownsidelikelyifnopartialIPOoccursbutmanagementincentiveplanandS11filing indicatethattobeunlikely. 4. 6/30/14ALotCanGoRight(100%+upside):AssumesCyrusasREITandsegmentsbecomefullyseparatedas CBBmonetizesCyrusstaketodeleverlegacybusiness.CyrusOnegrowth(~20%)andREITmultiplesareexpected tocontinue(inbaseandbullcases).LegacybusinesslikelytopayadividendonceFCFsnolongerneededto funddatacentergrowth;thiswillmaximizevalue.Recallmanagementishighlyincentivizedtomaximize shareholdervaluegiveninsiderincentiveplanatCyrusandCEOassubstantialCBBshareholder. Note:Forsimplicityssake,IdonotmodelgradualselldownofCyrusequitybyCBBparent(initialpartialIPO,subsequent offerings,etc.)butrathershow6/30/14valuationstoreflectentireCyrusseparationatthatpoint.Inreality, monetizationprocessislikelytobegradualinnaturewithseveralincrementalselldowns(vs.allatonetime).
($ in m, except per share data) Assumes no REIT designation for CyrusOne and multiple inline w/ low-end of peer group for legacy biz (FTR) despite significantly better operating trends. Highly unlikely that Cyrus isn't a REIT. Value Today - Sum of the Parts Value on 6/30/14 - Legacy and Cyrus Fully Separated Legacy Teleco does not initiate a dividend; Assumes Cyrus has qualified as a REIT but growth stalls (EBITDA well below base projections) and multiple compresses meaningfully FY14P Bear EV $2,191.9 EBITDA (1) $354.3 298.2 56.2 122.1 $3,605.7 4.1 250.0 (2,552.2) (129.4) (244.1) $3,687.7 4.1 250.0 (2,552.2) (129.4) (244.1) 12.0x 1,465.2 $3,548.3 4.1 250.0 (2,552.2) (129.4) (244.1) Discount to DC REITs FY12P Mult 16.0x 1,953.6 $4,145.6 4.1 250.0 (2,552.2) (129.4) (244.1) 165.0 13.0x 2,145.0 $3,921.1 4.1 250.0 (2,552.2) (129.4) (244.1) (79.0) $934.1 207.6 $4.50 $1,016.1 209.1 $4.86 8.0% $876.7 206.4 $4.25 (5.6%) $1,474.0 215.3 $6.85 52.1% $1,170.6 213.3 $5.49 21.9% 11.4% Corresponds to 60% payout ratio, 3x leverage and 8% div yield Downside Mult 5.0x EV $1,776.1 FY14P Base EBITDA (1) $354.3 298.2 56.2 193.6 16.0x 3,097.3 $5,170.6 4.1 250.0 (2,552.2) (129.4) (244.1) (79.0) $2,420.1 221.4 $10.93 142.9% 62.3% Mult 5.9x Legacy telecom (wireline and wireless stay combined) initiates dividend, Cyrus is a REIT, hits MK projections and trades at 1x discount to current [FY + 1] peer multiples Base EV $2,073.3 6.3x 8.0x 17.0x $1,874.5 449.4 3,290.9 $5,614.8 4.1 250.0 (2,552.2) Mult Legacy wireline initiates dividend, wireless segment is sold to strategic for subs and spectrum, Cyrus is a REIT, hits MK projections and trades at parity to current [FY + 1] peer multiples Bull EV Legacy still trades at meaningful discount to peers (no div) and Cyrus qualifies as a REIT but trades below peer multiples [FY +1] given limited float
Description:
FY12P Current Legacy Telecom Wireline & Other Wireless CyrusOne (Data Centers) Total Enterprise Value Add: Cash on B/S Today Add: NOL's (3) Less: Debt Less: Pfd Equity Less: $'s to fully fund pension (4) Add: FCF (6/3012 - 6/30/14) Equity Value FD Shares Outstanding (5) Price Per Share % Prem to Current 2 Yr. IRR WS Target EBITDA (1) $398.5
Base 5.5x
Multiple in-line w/ low-end of peer group (FTR) despite significantly better operating trends; Reflects 25% FCF yield (2)
(129.4) Wireless: Spectrum (244.1) and (79.0) subscriber value to nat'l $2,864.3 network 223.5 $12.81 184.7% 77.0%
(1) Not Co.'s EBITDA definition. Includes pension expense. (2) FCF calculated as EBITDA - Capex - Cash Taxes - Cash Interest - Cash to Pension - Pfd Dividend. Assumes 3x pro forma leverage @ 8%. (3) $1.1B nom $'s in NOL's valued at 10% discount rate (4) Per 10-K, less contributions YTD. In 2009, pension benefits were frozen for certain management employees below 50 years of age and provided a 10 year transition period for employees over age 50. (5) Adjusted for legacy warrants from Broadwing mezz financing w/ $3.00 strike. Expiration date of Mar '13 but share count in various scenarios as of 6/30/14 assumes full price appreciation and dilution from warrants. Add'l upside if some of price appreciation happens after Mar '13.
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OverviewofKeyInvestorObjections/ConcernstoaReRatingandCommentary/Mitigants 1. Whatifatransactiondoesnthappen?Noguaranteeanytransactiontakesplaceasfilinganddiscussionsare preliminaryatthispointandCBBhasyettoattainaprivateletterruling. Mitigant:MgmtincentiveplanmakesaninitialtransactionandREITqualificationhighlylikely.Cyrusbusiness modelmuchmorelikeDLR/DFTthanEQIX,soprecedenceofpriorqualificationsofsimilarbusinessmodelsisalso supportive. 2. WhatifCBBneverspinsouttheremainingstakeinCyrus?CBBhasonlyannouncedplansforapartialIPOof CyrusOneandoffersnoguaranteeortimingregardingafullseparationofthetwobusinesses. Mitigant:DeleveragingoflegacytelecombusinesswillrequirecashproceedsandmonetizationofCyrusasset. 3. IsitevenpossiblefordatacenterstobepartiallyIPOdgivencovenants?Isitpossibletopayadividendat legacy?CyrusNetworksisaguarantorofCBBdebtandexistingcapitalstructurehascovenantsthatrestrict assetsalesand/orrestrictedpayments,whichshouldpresentobstaclestoaseparationofCyrusOne.Anda separationofCyrusrequiresCBBlegacytodelever. Mitigant:CyrusNetworksequitycanbesoldinapartialIPOunderassetsalesguidelinesaslongascashproceeds arereceivedandusedtopaydowndebtwithinoneyear.Adividendtoshareholdersfromlegacyispermissibleso longasthereiscapacityintherestrictedpaymentsbasket(estd$1.5Bcapacityat12/31/12). 4. HowcanCBBdeleverthelegacybusinessgivenlongdatedmaturitiesandbondheavycapitalstructure? Legacybusinessrequiresleverageof2x3x(permgmt.team)butbondsdontmatureforseveralyears. Mitigant:SpinningoutCyruswillrequiresomelevelofdebtpaydown.Additionalmonetizationanddeleveringis possiblebyexaminingcallscheduleofCBBbonds(ifholdersdontwanttotenderatreasonablepriceearlier).Sub 3xproformaleverage(forlegacyonly)looksachievablebyearly14. 5. WhowantstoownlegacytelecombizonceCyrusisseparated?Hedgefundsarenotenticedbyowning legacytelecom. Mitigant:FCFyieldshouldprovidefloor.Dividendwouldsolicitstrongerbidfromincomeorientedfundsandyield investors.Legacybusinesscomparesfavorablytopeers. 6. WhywouldIwanttoownadatacenterbusinessatsuchhugemultiples?DatacenterREITstradeathigh multiples,REITvaluationsaretiedtospreadsoverrecordlowTreasuryyields,andsomehavecalledthespacea bubble. Mitigant:CyrusOneishighqualityassetwithattractiveenergyendmarketexposureandhighquality counterparties(mostlyFortune1000s)thatcomparesfavorablytopeers. Note:Mitigantto5)and6) ValueinvestorslookingtocapturealphafromCBBSOTPbutaversetolongexposuretolegacytelecomand/orREITS haveseverallarge,liquidpeersineachspacethatcanbepairedtotransformthetradefromlongbiasedtorelative value.PairingexposurewouldeffectivelybecomeabetonmultipleconvergencetopeersforCyrus(currently16x+for REITs)andlegacytelecom(currently5.5x+)inlieuofoutrightappreciationofCBBshares.
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Appendix CompanyDescription/SituationOverview 1. Convergedregionaltelecommunicationsprovider(bothwirelineandwireless)inCincyareathatalsooffersa bestinclassdatacenterproduct(colocation)focuseduponFortune1000customers. 2. Companyisacombinationoffourdistinctoperatingsegments. a. Wireline(48%ofCY12Prev,59%ofCY12PEBITDA) i. CorebusinessdrivenbyroleasILECinCincinnatiarea.Productofferingdrivenbyvoice,video anddataservicestobothresidentialandenterprisecustomers.Revenueindeclinebuthighly FCFgenerative. b. Wireless(16%ofCY12Prev,15%ofCY12PEBITDA) i. #2mktshareplayerinCincyareabehindVerizonwithAT&Tadistant3rd(lessthan15%)but losingsubstonatlnetworks.Spectrumholdingsinclude50MHzinCincinnati(2.18Mpops)and another40MHzinDayton(1.2Mpops). c. DataCenters(15%ofCY12Prev,22%ofCY12PEBITDA) i. Industryleadingmarginsdrivenbyhighutilizationratesandlowchurn.Companytargets Fortune1000customerswith~36%comingfromenergyspace. ii. Energycompaniesareattractivecustomersgivenhighdegreeofprofitability(notasprice sensitiveassmallerorlessprofitablecompanies),sensitivitytosecurityofdataandsubstantial scaleofdatacenterneeds(seismicworkislargeandpowerintensive).Customersarewillingto payforqualityandwillonlyworkwithvendorsthathaveindustryleadingofferingandtrack record(barriertocompetitionforincumbentColoproviderlikeCyrusOne).Inaddition,these companiesoftenrunhighendhardware(supercomputers,proprietarybuilds)whichmakes themlesslikelycandidatestotransitionupthestackandawayfromcolocation/towardsa managedhostingorpubliccloudoffering. d. EquipmentSalesandServices(20%ofCY12Prev,4%ofCY12PEBITDA) i. Lowvalueaddequipmentresellingtoexistingtelecomanddatacentercustomers.Division existsprimarilyasaservicetoexistingcustomersandisnotoperatedtobeaprofitcenter. FinancialSummary 1. Giveninvestorconcernsarounddegradationoflegacywirelinebusiness,belowoutlinesdetailedwirelinerev modelingthatassumescontinuedtrenderosionofresidentialvoiceandsuccesswithbundlingFioptics entertainmentproducttocustomerswithhighspeedconnections(FTTPorFTTNw/shortlooplength) a. KeydistinctionbetweenwirelineCBBandpressuredpeers(WIN,FTR,CNSL)islackofsubsidyrevenue andartificiallyhighterminationrevsthatare100%marginandbeingreformed
( $ in m, except per share data; FYE 12/31) MK Scenario Base 2008 Wireline Revenue Voice - local service Data Long Distance / VOIP Entertainment Other Total Wireline Revenues Y-o-Y Wireline Growth Voice - local service Data Long Distance / VOIP Entertainment Other Total Growth (38.4%) (5.0%) (10.6%) 3.9% (1.2%) (10.3%) (0.4%) 7.5% 116.9% (0.4%) (2.7%) (10.1%) 2.9% 6.6% 59.3% (14.5%) (1.4%) (9.9%) 4.4% 3.9% 20.3% (22.2%) (1.4%) (10.0%) 3.0% 3.0% 12.0% (15.0%) (1.6%) (10.0%) 3.0% 3.0% 12.0% (15.0%) (1.1%) (10.0%) 3.0% 3.0% 12.0% (15.0%) (0.6%) $389.1 273.5 98.3 0.0 42.7 $803.6 $347.7 284.3 97.1 7.7 26.3 $763.1 $311.9 283.3 104.4 16.7 26.2 $742.5 $280.3 291.5 111.3 26.6 22.4 $732.1 $252.5 304.3 115.7 32.0 17.4 $721.9 $227.2 313.5 119.2 35.8 14.8 $710.5 $204.5 322.9 122.7 40.1 12.6 $702.8 $184.1 332.6 126.4 45.0 10.7 $698.7 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P 2014P 2015P
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2. NoteFCFgenerationpriortoDCgrowthcapex.Also,minimalcashtaxburdenatCBBdrivenbyNOLsandnot bonusdepreciation(thatisgoingawayandinflatingFCFgenerationatpeertelecos).
( $ in m, except per share data; FYE 12/31)
Only incl. half year for CyrusOne
MK Scenario Base 2011 $732.1 277.6 184.7 300.5 (32.5) $1,462.4 2012P $721.9 247.2 228.7 305.0 (34.7) $1,468.1 2013P $710.5 229.2 291.9 305.0 (34.0) $1,502.5 2014P $702.8 213.2 358.5 305.0 (34.0) $1,545.5 2015P $698.7 198.4 428.2 305.0 (34.0) $1,596.3
2008 Revenue Wireline Wireless Data Centers Equipment Sales & Svcs Intersegment Total Revenues Y-o-Y Growth Wireline Wireless Data Centers Equipment Sales & Svcs Total Growth Gross Profit Wireline Wireless Data Centers Equipment Sales & Svcs Intersegment Total Gross Profit Gross Margin Wireline Wireless Data Centers Equipment Sales & Svcs Total Gross Margin EBITDA Wireline Wireless Data Centers Equipment Sales & Svcs Corp (and SBC addback) Total EBITDA EBITDA Margin Wireline Wireless Data Centers Equipment Sales & Svcs Total EBITDA Margin EBITDA - Capex Wireline Wireless Data Centers Equipment Sales & Svcs Corp (and SBC addback) Total EBITDA - Capex EBITDA - Capex (% of sales) Wireline Wireless Data Centers Equipment Sales & Svcs Total Less: Cash Interest (Expense) / Income Less: Cash Taxes Less: Cash to Pension / Post Ret Less: Div to Pfd Levered Free Cash Flow FCF before DC Growth Capex -11.1% 17.6% (145.0) (2.0) 61.4 (10.4) $151.3 151.3 29.9% 20.2% (35.1) (21.4) $247.3 $240.0 63.8 11.1% 34.1% 47.5% 26.2% 35.1 (21.4) $478.2 $381.7 82.8 23.7% 54.4% 66.9% 48.6% 74.8 (2.8) $763.2 $537.7 153.5 315.2 (31.9) $1,403.0 $803.6 316.1
30.3% 13.8% 40.5% -3.0% 20.6% (118.8) (6.0) (65.6) (10.4) $74.3 77.2
33.3% 27.3% 31.2% 2.4% 25.6% (172.4) (3.5) (10.7) (10.4) $154.9 186.0
30.4% 25.4% -9.4% 4.4% 18.2% (211.8) 0.0 (19.5) (10.4) $24.8 143.3
30.8% 25.8% -27.9% 4.2% 14.5% (213.2) (4.0) (40.0) (10.4) ($55.0) 130.9
28.9% 23.6% -10.5% 6.7% 15.0% (218.0) (4.0) (50.0) (10.4) ($56.8) 128.4
27.5% 21.1% 13.8% 6.7% 18.4% (223.5) (4.0) (50.0) (10.4) ($3.0) 141.0
26.2% 18.5% 16.2% 6.7% 17.9% (223.5) (4.0) (50.0) (10.4) ($1.6) 160.5
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KeyLanguageFromMgmtIncentivePlan8Kon12/31/10 KeyhiresandmanagementwiththeexceptionofCEOJackCassidyparticipateintheprogram.TheAgreementprovides fora(presumablylarge)cashpaymenttotheparticipatingemployeeintheeventthat: (i) theemployeeiscontinuouslyemployedforathreeyearperiodafterthedateofgrant (ii) specifiedEBITDAtargets(undisclosed)fortheTSSBusiness(Cyrus)aremetoversuchthreeyearperiod (iii) a"qualifyingtransaction"isconsummatedwithintenyearsofthedateofgrantand (iv) atleast$1,000,000,000ofequityvalueiscreatedintheTSSBusinesspriortothe"qualifyingtransaction". TheAgreementalsogivestheCommitteediscretiontomakefractionalpaymentsinanamountupto,butnotmore than,thebasepayoutamountintheeventthereiseither:(a)aqualifyingtransactionbeforethefifthanniversaryofthe initialawardgrantdate;or(b)thereisaqualifyingtransactionafterthefifthanniversaryoftheinitialawardgrantdate andtheequityvaluecreatedisatleast$500,000,000.
KeyDefinitions "Transaction"meansanyofthefollowing:(A)theconsummationofasaleofallorsubstantiallyalltheassetsrepresentingtheTSS Segment(otherthantotheCompanyoranyofitsaffiliates),(B)theconsummationofanytransaction(includingastocksale, merger,initialpublicoffering,spinoff,splitofforsimilarstockdistribution)thatresultsinatleast20%oftheEquityValueofthe TSSSegment(determinedatthetimeoftheTransaction)ceasingtobeownedbytheCompanyoranyofitsaffiliates,(C)the consummationofanytransaction(includingastocksale,merger,initialpublicoffering,spinoff,splitofforsimilarstock distribution)thatresultsintheCompanyoranyofitsaffiliatescontinuingtoowntheTSSSegment,butceasingtoownallor substantiallyalltheassetsofthebusinessesconductedbytheCompanyoranyofitsaffiliates(otherthantheTSSSegment)asof June11,2010or(D)a"ChangeinControl"oftheCompany(assuchtermisdefinedontheEffectiveDateinthePlan). "EquityValueoftheTSSSegment"means,asofanyspecifieddate,(x)theaggregateEnterpriseValueofeachentityconductingthe TSSSegmentasdeterminedbytheValuationFirmminus(y)theaggregateprincipalamountandaccruedinterestoftheinterest bearingdebtandintercompanyliabilities,netofintercompanyreceivables,oftheTSSSegment(excludingintercompanyaccounts betweentheentitiesconductingtheTSSSegment)determinedinaccordancewithGAAPand,ineachcase,determinedasofsuch dateandtakingintoconsiderationanybusinessorportionthereofnotbeingvalued. "EquityValueCreated"means,withrespecttoaTransaction,theexcess,ifany,of(i)theEquityValueoftheTSSSegmentcalculated asoftheconsummationoftheTransactionover(ii)(w)theEquityValueoftheTSSSegmentcalculatedasofDecember31,2009 [(includingtheequityvalueofCyrusasoftheCyrusPurchaseDate)],plus(x)theTSSContributionAmountplus(y)theTSSCostof CapitalAmountCumulativeTotalminus(z)theTSSDistributionAmount.Foravoidanceofdoubt,thecashusedtoacquirethe membershipinterestsofCyrusshallbedeemedtohavebeencontributedbytheCompanyoroneofitsaffiliatesasanequity contributiontoCBTS,providedhowever,suchcontributionshallnotbeaTSSContributionAmount. "TSSContributionAmount"meanstheaggregatevalueofanycashorproperty(includingstockorotherequityinterestsinanyother entity)contributed(ordeemedcontributed)asacapitalorotherequitycontributiontotheTSSSegment(ortheentitiesconducting theTSSSegment)bytheCompanyoranyofitsotheraffiliatesduringtheperiodfromDecember31,2009throughthe consummationoftheapplicableTransaction.EachsuchcontributionshallbevaluedbasedontheFairValueofthecontributed propertyontheapplicablecontributiondate.Fortheavoidanceofdoubt,adeemedcontributionwilloccurifachangeinthe Company'sreportingoftheTSSSegmentresultsinabusinessorentitythatwasformerlyexcludedfromtheTSSSegmentasof December31,2009becomingincludedinthereportingoftheTSSSegment(otherthananychangeduetotheacquisitionofCyrus bytheCompanyontheCyrusPurchaseDate). "TSSCostofCapitalAmount"means,withrespecttoanycontributionincludedintheTSSContributionAmountoranydistribution includedintheTSSDistributionAmount,theproductof(a)theFairValueofsuchcontributionordistributionmultipliedby(b)arate of10%perannumappliedovertheperiodbeginningonthedateofsuchcontributionordistributionandendingonthedateofthe applicableTransaction.
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Seebelowforestimateofcostbasis.Calculationimpliesfullpayoutofincentiveplantomanagementat$2Bvaluation.
Value Creation from Mgm Contract t Cost B asis '10 EB ITD A CyrusOne $44.6 Legacy 32.0 Est'd Cost Basis as of 12/31/09 Mult 11.8x 6.0x EV $526.0 192.0 $718.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cum Capex 2.4 5.6 21.9 31.8 54.2 70.1 112.8 156.8 213.4 270.5 316.7 $365.8 Cost Basis $718.0 720.4 723.6 739.9 749.8 772.2 788.1 830.8 874.8 931.4 988.5 1,034.7 $1,083.8 +$500m 1,220.4 1,223.6 1,239.9 1,249.8 1,272.2 1,288.1 1,330.8 1,374.8 1,431.4 1,488.5 1,534.7 $1,583.8 +$1B 1,720.4 1,723.6 1,739.9 1,749.8 1,772.2 1,788.1 1,830.8 1,874.8 1,931.4 1,988.5 2,034.7 $2,083.8
Cost of Accum Capex Capital Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Starting Q1'10 2.4 10.0% 2.4 Q2'10 3.1 2.5 3.1 Q3'10 16.2 2.5 3.2 16.2 Q4'10 9.4 2.6 3.3 16.6 9.4 Q1'11 21.6 2.6 3.3 17.0 9.6 21.6 Q2'11 14.6 2.7 3.4 17.4 9.9 22.1 14.6 Q3'11 41.0 2.8 3.5 17.8 10.1 22.7 15.0 41.0 Q4'11 41.3 2.8 3.6 18.2 10.3 23.2 15.3 42.0 41.3 Q1'12 52.8 2.9 3.7 18.7 10.6 23.8 15.7 43.0 42.3 52.8 Q2'12 52.0 3.0 3.8 19.1 10.8 24.3 16.1 44.0 43.3 54.1 52.0 Q3'12P 39.6 3.0 3.8 19.6 11.1 24.9 16.4 45.1 44.4 55.4 53.3 39.6 Q4'12P $41.4 $3.1 $3.9 $20.1 $11.4 $25.5 $16.8 $46.2 $45.4 $56.7 $54.5 $40.6 $41.4
Cumulative
Cincy Bell TEV Build A/R Securitization ($105m capacity) Credit facility ($210m capacity) Senior Notes due 2015 Senior Notes due 2017 Senior Notes due 2020 Senior Notes due 2023 Debentures due 2028 Var. Cincinnati Bell Tel Notes Capital lease / Other Total Snr Debt
Coupon
Maturity
Callable
6/30/12 $19 0
EBITDA Mult
8.250%
3/15/18
3/15/2014
104.370
$'s to fully fund pension Cum Preferred NOLs (10% disc, $1.1B nom $'s) Cash
Price Shares
244 129 (250) (4) $4.50 208 934 $3,606 6.9x $521
Common Equity (Mkt) Cincy Bell Enterprise Value Memo: MK FY12P EBITDA (1) Call Price at sooner of today or First Day Callable
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IMPORTANTINFORMATION This presentation was prepared by an employee of Lonestar Capital Management LLC (LCM), to be used solely in connectionwiththeValueInvestingChallenge.Itisnotanoffertoprovideinvestmentadviceorasolicitationofsuchan offer. No one should rely on the information contained in this presentation to make any investment decision. The presentationcontainsandisbaseduponinformationthattheauthorandLCMbelievetobecorrectbuttheyhavenot verifiedthatinformationandassumenoliabilityifsuchinformationisincorrect.NeitherLCMnortheauthorhasany duty to correct or update the information contained herein. LCMs clients currently have a significant position in the securitymentionedtherein.LCMmaybuy,sellorsellshortthesecurityatanytimewithoutnoticetoanyone. This document contains forwardlooking statements based on the authors expectations and projections. Those statementsaresometimesindicatedbywordssuchasexpects,believes,willandsimilarexpressions.Inaddition, anystatementsthatrefertoexpectations,projectionsorcharacterizationsoffutureeventsorcircumstances,including any underlying assumptions, are forwardlooking statements. Such statements are not guaranties of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actualreturnscoulddiffermateriallyandadverselyfromthoseexpressedorimpliedinanyforwardlookingstatements asaresultofvariousfactors.
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