CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Friday, September 14, 2012 6:30 pm EDT DRAFT Heading

into the Fall Campaign: President Obama has the Edge September 8-12, 2012

With their parties conventions behind them, President Barack Obama has the edge in a tight race among likely voters nationwide: 49% back President Obama, while 46% support Mitt Romney. The President enjoys a larger lead (eight points) among registered voters. Mr. Obama is seen as the candidate who would do a better job on foreign policy and fares better than Romney on handling an international crisis. The candidates are even on handling the economy voters top concern. Most voters think Barack Obamas policies will favor either the middle class (26%) or treat all equally (30%), but 53% say Mitt Romneys policies would favor the rich. There is some optimism in the poll: 40% of Americans say the country is headed in the right direction, the highest percentage in three years. 32% think the economy is improving.

The State of the Race President Barack Obama has a three-point edge over Republican Mitt Romney among likely voters nationwide. This is the first national poll in which CBS News and the New York Times have measured the presidential race among likely voters. The measure for likely voters takes into account voters reported intent to vote, voting history and other factors that historically affect an individuals decision to vote. Likely Voters: 2012 Vote for President (Among likely voters) Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46 Undecided 4 The gender gap continues. The president leads among women by double digits, but Romney holds a lead among men (please see page 9 for demographic table.) President Obama has a wider lead over Romney among the broader group of registered voters nationwide. 51% say theyll vote for Mr. Obama (the first time he is above the 50% mark), while 43% choose Romney. Heading into the parties conventions, the President and Romney were neck and neck among registered voters. Registered Voters: 2012 Vote for President (Among registered voters) Now Before Conventions (8/2012) Barack Obama 51% 46% Mitt Romney 43 45 Undecided 4 6

There are some signs that candidate support may be starting to solidify. More of each candidates voters now say they strongly favor their candidate than said so in July. 46% of Romneys supporters strongly back him, up 17 points from two months ago, but Romney still trails Mr. Obama on this: two-thirds of the Presidents voters strongly favor him. About a quarter (24%) of Romney voters say they are supporting him because they dislike President Obama, down from 37%. Strength of Support (Among voters with a candidate choice) Romney Voters Obama Voters Now 7/2012 Now 7/2012 Strongly favor 46% 29% 65% 52% Like with reservations 27 32 21 37 Dislike other candidate 24 37 12 8 There is some room for movement in the presidential race but not very much. More than eight in 10 voters who back a candidate say their minds are made up, while just over one in 10 say its too early and their minds could still change. Handling the Issues As the U.S. responds to a violent attack on an American consulate in Libya, likely voters give Barack Obama the edge in handling an international crisis. Two-thirds are at least somewhat confident in his ability to handle an international crisis, including four in 10 who have a lot of confidence. 58% have confidence in Mitt Romney to do so, including just one in four with a lot of confidence. Confidence in Handling an International Crisis (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney A lot 39% 26% Some 26 32 A little 13 15 None at all 21 22 Most of the interviews for this poll were conducted in the days just before the consulate attack in Libya. The economy and jobs remains the top concern of voters in this election, and likely voters are divided between the two candidates on this issue. 47% of likely voters now think Barack Obama would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, while 46% choose Mitt Romney. The candidates are about equal on handling taxes, and Mitt Romney (51%) leads Barack Obama (43%) on handling the budget deficit. Meanwhile President Obama has a ten point lead over Mitt Romney on foreign policy, and he leads Romney on handling Medicare and health care. Who Will Do a Better Job On? (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Economy & jobs 47% 46 Foreign Policy 49% 39 Medicare 50% 43 Health Care 50% 46

Taxes Budget Deficit Helping the Middle Class

Who Will Do a Better Job On? (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney 48% 46 43% 51

As for who will do more to help middle class Americans a prominent theme of both parties conventions President Obama has a 14 point lead over Mitt Romney. Most voters earning less than $100,000 a year choose Barack Obama on this measure, while half of those earning more choose Mitt Romney. Who Will Do More to Help Middle Class Americans? (Among likely voters) Total Under $50K $50K-$100K $100K+ 54% 62% 54% 45% 40 32 40 52

Barack Obama Mitt Romney

26% of voters think Barack Obamas policies will favor the middle class (26%), but just 8% say the same about Mitt Romneys policies. In fact, 53% think Mitt Romneys policies would favor the rich. Who Will Their Policies Favor? (Among likely voters) Obamas Policies Romneys Policies 12% 53% 26 8 22 1 30 33

Rich Middle Class Poor All equally Candidate Qualities

Barack Obama also leads Mitt Romney on a number of candidate qualities. Majorities of voters think the President understands the needs and problems of people like them, is clear about what he wants to accomplish if re-elected, says what he believes rather than what people want to hear, and is honest and trustworthy. Voters tend to think Mitt Romney is honest and trustworthy (though by a smaller margin), and that he is clear about what he wants to accomplish as president. But voters are divided over whether or not he understands their problems, and about half think he mostly says what people want to hear. Obama vs. Romney: Candidate Qualities (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Yes No Understands problems of people like you 60% 37 Clear about what he wants to accomplish 59% 37 Honest and trustworthy 58% 37 Says what he believes 54% 43

Mitt Romney Yes No 46% 48 50% 44 53% 36 42% 53

Referendum on the President? One question that is often asked when an incumbent president is running for re-election is whether the country and voters are better off than they were before he took office. Nearly half of voters say their families are about the same but the rest are divided, with 25% better off and 28% worse off. When it comes to the country overall, just a quarter say it is about the same as four years ago. 36% say things in the U.S. are better, and 39% say things are worse. Better or Worse Off Compared to 4 Years Ago? (Among registered voters) Country Your family 36% 25% 39 28 24 46

Better Worse Same

While views of the country compared to four years ago may be mixed, 40% of Americans now say the country is headed in the right direction the highest that number has been in three years, and up nine points since before the party conventions. Now 40% 54 Country is Headed in the 8/2012 1/2012 2/2011 31% 29% 36% 62 65 58 9/2010 33% 60 9/2009 41% 53

Right direction Wrong track

That increase has come primarily from Democrats. Last month, 56% of Democrats said the country was going in the right direction; now, that number has risen to 71%. Just 11% of Republicans say the country is headed in the right direction. Country is Headed in the Right Direction Now 8/2012 Republicans 11% 6% Democrats 71% 56% Independents 30% 27% The percentage of registered voters that think President Obamas economic policies are improving the economy now has risen slightly from 17% in July to 25% today. Effect of Barack Obamas Policies on the Economy (Among registered voters) Now 7/2012 Improving it now 25% 17% Will improve it if given more time 36 34 Will never improve it 38 46 While 49% of voters say they are at least somewhat satisfied with the Obama presidency so far, only 18% are very satisfied. Half of all registered voters say they are disappointed, including nearly one in three who are very disappointed. Opinion of the Candidates Coming out of the conventions, registered voters now have a slight net favorable opinion of Barack Obama a reversal from what was found in August when slightly more viewed him

unfavorably. Views of Mitt Romney remain net negative: slightly more voters view him unfavorably than favorably. A quarter has not formed an opinion yet, down slightly from 32%. Opinion of the Presidential Candidates (Among registered voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Now 8/2012 Now 8/2012 Favorable 45% 41% 33% 31% Not favorable 41 44 40 36 Undecided/dont know 13 14 26 32 Michelle Obama and Ann Romney both of whom made prominent speeches at their respective husbands nominating conventions came out of those conventions with a favorable public opinion rating. 61% of Americans now view Michelle Obama favorably the highest rating she has received since April 2009. Ann Romney is also viewed far more favorably than unfavorably, though more than half of registered voters dont know enough about her to make a decision. Opinion of Michelle Obama and Ann Romney (Among registered voters) Michelle Obama Ann Romney Favorable 61% 32% Not favorable 19 13 Undecided/dont know 19 53 Former Democratic President Bill Clinton, who also spoke at his partys convention, is viewed even more positively. 66% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, compared to just 25% who view him unfavorably the highest rating he has received since CBS News first asked the question in 1987. Opinion of Bill Clinton (Among registered voters) Now 7/2008 10/2004 1/2001 2/1998 Favorable 66% 46% 48% 54% 58% Not favorable 25 42 38 39 31 Undecided/dont know 9 12 14 7 11 Likely voters who watched the conventions came away with more positive rather than negative impressions of both candidates. As might be expected, there are strong partisan differences on this. 77% of Republicans say the GOP convention gave them a better impression of Romney, while 82% of Democrats say their partys convention improved their view of President Obama. More than four in 10 independents came away from the conventions with a better opinion of each candidate. Perhaps not surprisingly, Republicans were more likely to watch their own partys convention, as were Democrats. Did Republican Convention Make You think Better or Worse of Romney? (Among Likely Voters: Republican convention watchers) All Rep Dem Ind Better 47% 77% 15% 47% Worse 26 4 58 20 No diff. (vol.) 26 18 27 33

Did Democratic Convention Make You think Better or Worse of Obama? (Among Likely Voters: Democratic convention watchers) All Rep Dem Ind Better 49% 10% 82% 45% Worse 23 52 4 22 No diff. (vol.) 27 38 14 34 The Campaign More voters think Mitt Romney (42%) rather than Barack Obama (32%) is running the more negative campaign. 15% volunteer that both candidates campaigns are negative. As might be expected, most of each candidates supporters say the opponents campaign is more negative. Who Is Running A More Negative Campaign? (Among likely voters) Obama Romney Total Voters Voters 32% 3% 66% 42 80 5 15 8 19

Obama Romney Both (vol.)

By more than three to one, voters describe this presidential campaign overall as more negative than positive compared to past campaigns. However, more than half of voters (52%) think this campaign is no different in tone than previous ones. Compared to Past Campaigns, This One Is (Among likely voters) Obama Romney Total Voters Voters 11% 16% 6% 36 34 38 52 49 54

More positive More negative Same

One of the goals of conventions is for political parties to rally their base of support, and it appears the Democrats have made progress on this front. 43% of Democrats now say they are more enthusiastic about voting compared to past elections; up from 27% in July. Republicans remain more enthusiastic than Democrats, but their enthusiasm level hasnt increased much from two months ago. Enthusiasm Compared to Past Elections (Among registered voters) Republicans Democrats All Now 7/2012 Now 7/2012 43% 52% 49% 43% 27% 19 15 20 17 24 37 33 30 40 48

More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic Same

Independents Now 7/2012 37% 29% 25 38 37 42

Democrats are less likely than Republicans to be paying a lot attention to the campaign. Overall, fewer voters are tuning in than did so at this point in the presidential campaign four years ago.

A lot Some Not much/none VP Candidates

Attention to the Campaign (Among registered voters) Total Rep Dems Inds 47% 55% 43% 47% 36 30 38 37 17 14 18 15

Total (9/2008) 63% 30 7

Even after the party conventions, Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan remains unknown to nearly half of voters nationwide. Views of him are divided, just as they were before the conventions. Opinions of Vice President Joe Biden are split now. More than half of likely voters think Mr. Biden is honest and trustworthy. Fewer say that about Ryan, but a third of voters did not offer an opinion on this question. 39% of voters think Biden would be able to serve as an effective President if that became necessary, but 49% do not. Likely voters are divided on this question about Ryan, but a quarter did not have an opinion. Assessing the President 51% of Americans now say they approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president - a slight increase from August - while 42% disapprove. President Obamas Job Rating 8/2012 5/2012 9/2011 48% 50% 43% 43 48 50

Approve Disapprove

Now 51% 42

5/2011 57% 37

In particular, more Americans now give President Obama better ratings on handling the economy than did so in August. While most disapproved in August, Americans are now divided. On his handling of foreign policy, 50% approve while 36% disapprove. President Obamas Job Ratings on The Economy Foreign Policy Now 8/2012 Now 8/2012 45% 39% 50% 45% 47 54 36 35

Approve Disapprove The Economy

Evaluations of the economy have risen slightly since last month, but remain overwhelmingly negative. Just 31% of Americans rate the economy as good, and more than twice as many say it is in bad shape -- but views are more positive now than they were one or two years ago. Now 31% 68 Condition of the Economy 8/2012 4/2012 27% 27% 71 70 9/2011 14% 86 9/2010 17% 81

Good Bad

Similarly, the percentage that says the economy is improving has risen since last month, to about a third where it was in April. Slightly more say it is staying the same (39%).

Better Worse Same

Now 32% 28 39

Direction of the Economy 8/2012 4/2012 25% 33% 30 28 43 38

9/2011 12% 43 44

9/2010 22% 30 48

Six in ten Americans are concerned about job loss in their household. When asked a general question about life for the next generation of Americans, a third is optimistic that their future will be better, but more, 42%, expect a worse future for the next generation. Still, Americans are more optimistic now than they have been over the past couple of years. Future for the Next Generation Now 4/2012 10/2010 32% 24% 22% 42 47 51 18 23 23 3/2009 35% 32 26

Better Worse Same Congress and the Parties

16% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, the highest that has been in over a year. 74% disapprove. Americans are more likely to blame the Republicans in Congress (44%) than Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress (29%) for difficulties reaching agreements and passing legislation. Positive assessments of the Democratic Party have increased a bit since their convention: 49% now hold a favorable opinion of the party, up from 43% before the conventions. Favorable views of the Republican Party are unchanged since last month. Favorable Views of the Political Parties Now Last month Democratic Party 49% 43% Republican Party 36% 35% Issues Medicare and Health Care Three in four Americans, including more than half of Republicans, expect it will be necessary to make at least some changes to the Medicare system in order to keep it financially sound. To Keep Medicare Sound, All Reps Major changes 40% 51% Minor changes 36 34 No changes 14 6 Necessary to Make Dems Inds 30% 42% 40 34 22 12

At the same time, 78% would like the Medicare system to continue as it is now, with the government providing seniors with health insurance. 14% think it should be changed to a system in which the government provides seniors with a fixed amount of money to purchase private health insurance.

Just 42% of Americans approve of the 2010 health care legislation, and a majority would like the law to be repealed at least in part or completely. Tax Cuts Americans views on what should happen to the tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003 have changed little in recent months. Most went them to continue for everyone or for those with incomes below $250,000. Tax Cuts Should Continue for all Continue only for those with incomes < $250k Expire for all Voter IDs Seven in ten voters support efforts that would require voters to show photo identification in order to vote, because that it is needed to prevent people who are not eligible to vote from voting. Just a quarter oppose it because such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minority voters. There are large partisan differences: nearly all Republicans support this, as do 76% of independents, while Democrats are more divided. Require Photo Identification to Vote? (among registered voters) All Reps Dems Inds Support 70% 94% 48% 76% Oppose 28 6 50 21 Whos Supporting Who? Each presidential candidate is getting the support of nine in 10 of their party stalwarts, while independents are breaking for Romney. While Romney beats Mr. Obama among likely voters age 65 and over, the President leads among younger voters and enjoys his largest lead among voters under age 30. Romney leads among whites, while the President is getting the support of 94% of African Americans voters. The gender gap continues. The president leads among women by double digits, but Romney holds a lead among men. Who Would You Vote for if the Candidates Were? (Among likely voters) Obama Romney Total 49% 46% Men Women Republicans Democrats Independents 44% 53% 7% 92 40 52 41 90 5 51 Now 30% 47 15 7/2012 27% 49 17

Who Would You Vote for if the Candidates Were? (Among likely voters) Obama Romney 18-29 53% 45 30-44 50% 45 45-64 52% 45 65+ 38% 53 Whites Blacks White College grad White No degree 40% 94% 47% 37% 55 6 50 57

<$50k 58% 37 $50k-$100K 47% 50 $100K+ 41% 57 ______________________________________________________________________

This poll was conducted by telephone from September 8-12, 2012 among 1,301 adults nationwide, including 1,170 registered voters. The sample size for likely voters is 1,162. Not all likely voters are assigned the same probability of voting. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample, the sample of registered voters, and the sample of likely voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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