DATE: Sept.

18, 2012 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, CONTACT: David Stawasz at 413-796-2026 (office) or 413-214-8001 (cell) OBAMA MAINTAINS STRONG LEAD OVER ROMNEY Addition of Paul Ryan to the GOP ticket hurts more than it helps in the Bay State SPRINGFIELD, MAPresident Barack Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over former Governor Mitt Romney in Massachusetts in the race for the White House, according to the latest survey from the Western New England University Polling Institute. The statewide telephone survey of 444 likely voters, which the Polling Institute conducted Sept. 6-13, 2012 in partnership with The Republican newspaper of Springfield, MA and MassLive.com, found Obama ahead of Romney by a margin of 60 percent to 38 percent. Among a larger sample of 545 registered voters, Obama led Romney by a two-to-one margin, 64 percent to 32 percent. The Polling Institutes previous survey in the race, conducted May 29-31, 2012, found Obama with a 22-point lead among all registered voters, with 56 percent supporting the president to 34 percent for Romney. As he has in other parts of the country, President Obama may be experiencing a postconvention bounce in Massachusetts, said Tim Vercellotti, director of the Polling Institute and a political science professor at Western New England University. Voter enthusiasm shows up not only in the presidential horse-race numbers, but also in his measures of job approval and favorability. Sixty percent of registered voters said they approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 32 percent said they disapprove, compared to approval-disapproval numbers of 54 percent and 36 percent respectively among registered voters in the May 29-31, 2012 survey. Obamas favorability also is up seven points, to 64 percent, among all registered voters, and his unfavorability rating is down four points since the May survey. Romney, however, has seen his favorability rating decline since the last survey. Thirtyone percent of registered voters view him favorably, down from 36 percent in May, and 60 percent of registered voters view him unfavorably, up from 50 percent in the previous survey. Among the smaller sample of likely voters, 34 percent view Romney favorably, and 56 percent view him unfavorably. In terms of the vice-presidential spot on the national tickets, Massachusetts voters also were more favorable toward the Democratic nominee than the Republican nominee. Fifty-one percent of likely voters had a favorable view of Vice President Joe Biden, and

35 percent had an unfavorable view. Twenty-nine percent of likely voters had a favorable view of Paul Ryan, the Wisconsin congressman whom Romney has chosen as his running mate. Forty-seven percent of likely voters had an unfavorable view of Ryan, while 21 percent either had not heard of Ryan or had no opinion of him. In the presidential match-up, Obama had support from 97 percent of likely voters who identified themselves as Democrats, while 91 percent of Republican likely voters said they support Romney. The candidates split the independent vote, with 47 percent backing Obama and 48 percent backing Romney. But the three to one registration edge that Democrats have over Republicans in Massachusetts means that Republican candidates have to win significant numbers of independent voters in order to be competitive in the state. Obama led Romney among all other demographic groups. Male likely voters supported him by a margin of 53 percent to 43 percent, and women backed Obama over Romney by a two to one margin, 66 percent to 32 percent. Support for Obama also increased by age category, with likely voters ages 65 and older supporting him over Romney 66 percent to 31 percent. Romneys selection of Ryan as his running mate appeared to hurt the Republican ticket more than help it overall in Massachusetts. Sixteen percent of likely voters said the choice of Ryan as vice-presidential nominee made them more likely to vote for Romney, but 27 percent of likely voters said the pick made them less likely to back the former Massachusetts governor. Fifty-five percent said the choice made no difference to them. Selecting Ryan did boost Romneys support among Republican likely voters, with 27 percent saying the choice made them more likely to back Romney, 8 percent saying less likely, and 62 percent saying the decision made no difference. More than half of independent likely voters said the choice made no difference, with 21 percent saying the pick made them more likely to vote for Romney and 21 percent saying the choice made them less likely to support the Republican nominee. While the polling results for the presidential race offered little drama, the voting preferences of Obama and Romney supporters in the states much-watched U.S. Senate race provided some intrigue. The survey of 444 likely voters found Democrat Elizabeth Warren leading Republican incumbent Scott Brown 50 percent to 44 percent in the race for the Senate. Polling data, however, showed that some likely voters who back Obama indicated they would split their ballots and support Brown for the Senate race if the election was held today. Among Obama supporters, 77 percent said they would vote for Warren and 14 percent said they would back Brown. The percentages were roughly the same among all registered voters, and were comparable to results from the previous survey conducted May 29-31, 2012.

While Warren leads Brown in this survey, the defection of 14 percent of Obama supporters to Brown should be of concern to her, Vercellotti said. For Brown, winning over as many Obama supporters as possible is clearly a critical part of winning reelection. METHODOLOGY The Western New England University Polling Institute survey consists of telephone interviews with 588 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing Sept. 6-13, 2012. The sample yielded 545 adults who said they are registered to vote in Massachusetts, and 444 adults who are classified as likely to vote in the Nov. 6, 2012 general election. Unless otherwise noted, the figures in this release are based on the statewide sample of likely voters. The Polling Institute classified likely voters based on voters responses to questions about interest in the election, likelihood of voting in the election, ability to identify their polling place, and whether they reported voting in the 2008 presidential election. The Polling Institute dialed household telephone numbers, known as landline numbers, and cell phone numbers for the survey. In order to draw a representative sample from the landline numbers, interviewers first asked for the youngest male age 18 or older who was home at the time of the call, and if no adult male was present, the youngest female age 18 or older who was at home at the time of the call. Interviewers dialing cell phone numbers interviewed the respondent who answered the cell phone after confirming three things: (1) that the respondent was in a safe setting to complete the survey; (2) that the respondent was an adult age 18 or older; and (3) that the respondent was a resident of Massachusetts. The landline and cell phone data were combined and weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race, age, and county of residence using U.S. Census estimates for Massachusetts. Complete results of the poll are available online at www.wne.edu/news. The full text of the questionnaire for this survey is available at /www1.wne.edu/pollinginst. Complete coverage of the polls by our media partners, The Republican and MassLive.com, can be found at www.masslive.com/politics/. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for a sample of 444 likely voters is +/- 4.6 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 57 percent of likely voters approve of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 52.4 percent and 61.6 percent (57 percent +/- 4.6 percent) had all Massachusetts likely voters been interviewed, rather than just a sample. The margin of sampling error for the sample of 545 registered voters is +/- 4.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval, and + / - 4 percent for the sample of 588 adults. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects. 3

Established in 2005, the Western New England University Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts and the region. The Institute provides the Universitys faculty and students with opportunities to participate in public opinion research. Additional information about the Polling Institute is available at www1.wne.edu/pollinginst. Western New England University is a private, independent, coeducational institution founded in 1919. Located on an attractive 215-acre suburban campus in Springfield, Massachusetts, the University serves approximately 4,000 students, including 2,500 full-time undergraduate students, on its main campus and at four sites throughout the Commonwealth. Undergraduate and graduate programs are offered through the University's Colleges of Arts and Sciences, Business, Engineering, and Pharmacy, and graduate programs through the School of Law. In its annual Americas Best Colleges ranking, U.S.News & World Report lists Western New England University among the North Regions Best Universities Masters Category, those which provide a full range of bachelors and masters programs. -30Editors note: All of the Universitys news releases are available online at www.wne.edu/news. More information about the Polling Institute is available at www1.wne.edu/pollinginst.

TABLES Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Job Approval Barack Obama Approve Sept. 6-13, 2012 Party ID** Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 and older High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Adults Registered voters Adults Registered voters Adults Registered voters Adults Registered voters 57% 93% 12% 45% 54% 60% *** 54% 52% 67% 58% 60% 56% 67% 60% 50% 59% 60% 60% 54% 54% 56% 55% 68% 68% Disapprove 36% 4% 75% 49% 42% 31% *** 41% 42% 29% 38% 36% 36% 17% 36% 45% 36% 30% 32% 36% 36% 35% 37% 11% 11% Dont know/ Refused 7% 3% 13% 6% 4% 9% *** 5% 6% 4% 4% 4% 8% 16% 4% 5% 5% 9% 8% 10% 10% 9% 8% 21% 22% N* 444 163 61 217 225 219 *** 121 157 140 89 108 246 82 55 136 171 588 545 552 504 576 527 569 524

Gender Age

Education

Region

Sept. 6-13, 2012 May 29 -31, 2012 Feb.23 March 1, 2012 Feb. 2009

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. ** Party identification was measured with the following question: In politics today, do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican, Independent or something else? ***Subgroup contains fewer than 40 respondents.

Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people. If you haven't heard of them or don't have an opinion of them, just tell me and we'll move on. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (name). (Names of candidates were rotated in random order in the survey.)

Favorable Unfavorable Ratings for Barack Obama Favorable Sept. 6-13, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female Registered voters Registered voters Registered voters 60% 94% 19% 49% 57% 64% 64% 57% 61% Unfavorable 34% 3% 71% 45% 39% 28% 29% 33% 34% Havent heard of 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% No opinion 6% 3% 10% 6% 4% 8% 6% 8% 3% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% N* 444 163 61 217 225 219 545 504 527

Gender Sept. 6-13, 2012 May 29 31, 2012 Feb. 23 March 1, 2012

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

Favorable Unfavorable Ratings for Mitt Romney Favorable Sept. 6-13, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female Sept. 6-13, 2012 May 29 31, 2012 Feb. 23 March 1, 2012 Registered voters Registered voters Registered voters 34% 5% 81% 43% 36% 32% 31% 36% 41% Unfavorable 56% 90% 5% 48% 58% 55% 60% 50% 46% Havent heard of 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% No opinion 9% 5% 14% 7% 5% 12% 8% 12% 11% Refused 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 2% N* 444 163 61 217 225 219 545 504 527

Gender

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

Favorable Unfavorable Ratings for Joe Biden Favorable Sept. 6-13, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female Sept. 6-13, 2012 Registered voters 51% 81% 11% 42% 44% 58% 53% Unfavorable 35% 7% 72% 44% 45% 25% 31% Havent heard of 2% 2% 5% 2% 1% 4% 3% No opinion 10% 9% 8% 9% 10% 9% 10% Refused 2% 1% 4% 3% 1% 4% 3% N* 444 163 61 217 225 219 545

Gender

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

Favorable Unfavorable Ratings for Paul Ryan Favorable Sept. 6-13, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female Registered voters 29% 6% 66% 36% 34% 24% 26% Unfavorable 47% 77% 7% 38% 45% 49% 47% Havent heard of 8% 7% 9% 9% 8% 9% 10% No opinion 13% 9% 15% 14% 11% 15% 15% Refused 2% 0% 4% 4% 2% 3% 3% N* 444 163 61 217 225 219 545

Gender Sept. 6-13, 2012

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

If the election for president were held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Mitt Romney, the Republican, would you vote for Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or some other candidate for president? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more toward Barack Obama, the Democrat, or Mitt Romney, the Republican? (Names were rotated in random order in the initial and follow-up questions. Initial preferences and preferences of leaning voters in the follow-up question were combined in the table below.) Voter Preferences for the Presidency Likely and Registered Voters Obama Sept. 6-13, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 and older High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Registered voters Registered voters Registered voters 60% 97% 9% 47% 53% 66% ** 54% 57% 66% 57% 66% 58% 71% 65% 51% 61% 64% 56% 60% Romney 38% 3% 91% 48% 43% 32% ** 43% 40% 31% 42% 30% 40% 29% 33% 47% 35% 32% 34% 36% Dont know / Undecided 3% 0% 0% 6% 3% 2% ** 3% 3% 3% 1% 4% 3% 0% 2% 2% 4% 4% 9% 4% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ** 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% N* 444 163 61 217 225 219 ** 121 157 140 89 108 246 82 55 136 171 545 504 527

Gender Age

Education

Region

Sept. 6-13, 2012 May 29 31, 2012 Feb. 23 March 1, 2012

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding. **Subgroup contains fewer than 40 respondents.

Initial Voter Preferences for the Presidency (Without Leaners) Likely and Registered Voters Obama Sept. 6-13, 2012 Party Identification Gender Age Likely voters Democrat Republican Independent Male Female 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 and older Education High school or less Some college College graduate Western MA Central MA North / South Shore Boston and suburbs Registered voters Registered voters Registered voters 56% 95% 5% 43% 51% 60% ** 50% 55% 63% 53% 63% 54% 56% 62% 49% 59% 60% 52% 56% Romney 36% 2% 88% 44% 41% 31% ** 40% 38% 30% 41% 29% 37% 29% 32% 43% 34% 29% 32% 33% Some other candidate 5% 2% 3% 6% 6% 3% ** 6% 3% 1% 3% 5% 5% 8% 6% 5% 2% 6% 8% 7% Wouldnt vote 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ** 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% Dont know / Undecided 4% 0% 3% 6% 2% 5% ** 3% 4% 6% 4% 3% 4% 6% 0% 3% 5% 5% 6% 3% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ** 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% N* 444 163 61 217 225 219 ** 121 157 140 89 108 246 82 55 136 171 545 504 527

Region

Sept. 6 13, 2012 May 29 31, 2012 Feb. 23 March 1, 2012

Mitt Romney recently chose Paul Ryan to serve as the vice-presidential candidate on the Republican ticket. Does Romneys choice of Ryan as his running mate make you more likely to vote for Romney, less likely to vote for Romney, or does it make no difference at all? (The response categories more likely to vote for Romney and less likely to vote for Romney rotated in random order in the question.)

Does Ryan Selection Make Voters More Likely or Less Likely to Support Romney? More likely Sept. 6-13, 2012 Party Identification Likely voters Democrat Republican Gender Sept. 6-13, 2012 Independent Male Female Registered voters 16% 6% 27% 21% 21% 12% 14% Less likely 27% 44% 8% 21% 24% 31% 30% Makes no difference 55% 49% 62% 57% 55% 56% 55% Dont know 1% 1% 3% 1% 0% 2% 1% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% N* 444 163 61 217 225 219 545

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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As you may know, voters in Massachusetts will elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott Brown, the Republican, and Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat, would you vote for Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren, or some other candidate for Senate? (If no preference is stated): At this moment do you lean more toward Scott Brown, the Republican, or more toward Elizabeth Warren, the Democrat? (Names were rotated in random order in the initial and follow-up questions. Initial preferences and preferences of leaning voters in the follow-up question were combined in the table below.) How Obama and Romney Supporters Would Vote if the Senate Election Were Held Today Elizabeth Warren Sept. 6-13, 2012 Presidential vote preference Sept. 6-13, 2012 Presidential vote preference May 29-31, 2012 Presidential vote preference Likely voters Obama supporter or leaner Romney supporter or leaner Registered voters Obama supporter or leaner Romney supporter or leaner Registered voters Obama supporter or leaner Romney supporter or leaner 50% 77% 8% 53% 77% 8% 45% 76% 4% Scott Brown 44% 14% 91% 41% 15% 91% 43% 16% 89% Dont know / Undecided 6% 9% 1% 6% 8% 1% 11% 7% 6% Refused 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% N* 444 265 166 545 342 182 504 283 179

* Subsamples are unweighted Ns, and consist of likely and registered voters. Row percentages may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

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