IBP2070_12 SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE RISK AND ACCIDENTAL SCENARIOS EVALUATION FOR DECISION MAKING IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE

OFFSHORE ENVIRONMENTAL RISK Lara Varoveska1, Cassia Cardoso 2, Lilian Lopes3

Copyright 2012, Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute - IBP
This Technical Paper was prepared for presentation at the Rio Oi & Gas Expo and Conference 2012, held between September, 1720, 2012, in Rio de Janeiro. This Technical Paper was selected for presentation by the Technical Committee of the event according to the information contained in the final paper submitted by the author(s). The organizers are not supposed to translate or correct the submitted papers. The material as it is presented, does not necessarily represent Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute opinion, or that of its Members or Representatives. Authors consent to the publication of this Technical Paper in the Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 Proceedings.

Abstract
In recent years, oil and gas exploration and production offshore activities in Brazil are growing and still have the perspective of a significant increase in the short term. The recent occurrence of environmental accidents showed the need for developing new methods for reducing risks of oil spill at sea. The national guidelines governing the offshore sector are being rewritten, especially with regard to prevention and response to the accidents with environmental consequences. Currently, the Brazilian environmental agency has asked for quantitative analysis of environmental risks for projects in the E & P. This paper aims to present two different tools based on the quantitative environmental risk analysis: one which facilitates decision making regarding measures to be taken to reduce risks and other that shows the spatial risk distribution, considering the sensitivity of the environmental resources. The results of this study show the feasibility of using both proposed methodologies and their importance in resource optimization, in evaluation of alternative techniques that allow compliance with the legal environmental requirements in a cost-efficient way and in strategic decisions to emergency response plans.

1. Introduction
In recent years, oil and gas exploration and production offshore activities in Brazil are growing and still have the perspective of a significant increase in the short term. Activities related to the pre-salt development in Brazil require new techniques to ensure the success of the exploration of this new frontier. However, due to recent environmental accidents occurred in the world and in Brazil, there is growing concern about consequences of accidents due to oil spills in the marine environment. In areas with oil production or exploration activities, is of upmost importance to focus on prevention of oil spills to the environment. Despite the best efforts of individual organizations, spills may continue to occur and still affect the local environment. Response to spills should seek to minimize the severity of the environmental damage and to hasten the recovery of any damaged ecosystem. Currently, the Brazilian offshore environmental licensing agency has required quantitative environmental risks analysis on new ventures in the E&P. Brazilian law also, over the past years, reviewed and expanded governmental national guidelines for the offshore industry, particularly regarding the prevention and response to accidents with environmental consequences. However, measures taken without the proper assessment can be ineffective, not justifying the costs, whereas investments in safety of operations, based on a detailed analysis of the activities involved and their environmental risks can reduce the risk in a cost- efficient way. Also, when a project involves risks related to different spilling sites, different oil types and volumes, it can be useful a spatial assessment of the environmental risk to evaluate the strategy of environmental emergency response, distributing better the oil containment and collection resources, allowing the minimization of the environmental impacts and consequences.

______________________________ 1 Master, Oceanography - DNV 2 Master, Chemical Engineer - DNV 3 Environmental Analyst DNV

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2. Objective
This study intends to present a tool, based on quantitative environmental risks analysis, which refines the assessment for decision making related to risk reduce measures and spatial distribution of environmental emergency response resources.

3. Quantitative Environmental Risk Analysis - QERA

In 2010, to meet the Brazilian licensing agency, the methodology used to quantify the environmental risk, adopted about 15 years ago in Norway and other countries worldwide, was adapted for this type of studies in Brazil. As published this year in the 4th Latin American Conference on Process Safety of CCPS (Cardoso & Varoveska, 2012), the initial step of the presented methodology uses a qualitative risk analysis technique to identify potential accidental scenarios that, during the operational activities or the analyzed offshore facilities, can cause oil spill in the marine environment. After this step, for each identified accident scenario, it is determined the frequency of accidents by historical data, by instruments or equipment fault data and by Fault Tree technique. It is also developed probabilistic oil drift modeling for each group of scenarios. They are grouped according to similar characteristics, eg, the release point, the type and the volume of spilled oil. By defining the area of direct influence of accident scenarios evaluated, it is possible to identify the environmental components liable to oil contamination. These environmental components are evaluated for sensitivity to oil contamination and abundance in the influence area for the selection of "Valued Environmental Component" (VEC). The VECs are used as indicators of risk in the Environmental Risk Analysis. The environmental consequences to VECs are considered through the determination of the recovery time of these resources to levels equals to the ecological functions similar to those existing before the contamination. Then, the environmental risk is calculated for each identified VEC and the result compared with the risk of the recovery time of each VEC through the relationship between recovery time and recurrence time. Once identified the VECs at higher risk, it is performed a thorough out assessment of the accidental scenarios that promote most to the development of risk reduction measures. The methodology summarized above was applied to hypothetical data to illustrate its applicability in risk assessment. In the hypothetical case was considered a field of offshore oil exploration (Field F1) where there is possibility of accidents on facilities and activities involving both on-site diesel and crude oil, but as a simplification was adopted just a point of release to both products. For this example, we selected the following possible accidental scenarios with oil spills at sea due to accidents during operation of platforms in Field F1: Blowout of production wells with resurgence, collision between supply vessels and release of production well risers or export pipeline. Thus, there have been three groups of scenarios for diesel and other 3 for crude oil. These groups represent the following ranges hollow volume: up to 8m3, between 8 and 200m3 and above 200m3. A VEC has been selected to calculate the environmental risk in this part of the paper: Turtle Nesting Area. The choice of VEC was based on the significant presence in the Brazilian coast and in their sensitivity to oil contamination. Turtle Nesting Area was considered here for two concentration points along the coastline and the recovery time associated to it was three years, according to the reproductive cycle (Trong & Chaloupka, 2007). Probabilistic oil drift models were made for the groups of selected scenarios for summer and winter. It was also defined the geographical distribution of selected VECs. The results of the oil hit probabilities to selected VEC for this study are shown in Figure 1, for each group of accidental scenarios. This figure shows that higher oil hit probabilities are associated with worse case scenarios of diesel and crude oil during the summer.

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Oil Hit Probability Turtle Nesting Area
100% 100% 100%

82%
50% 27% 14% S 8 m3 6% W S 200 m3 Diesel F1 W S WC m3 W S 8 m3 18% 27% 17% W S 200 m3 Crude 44% 27%

Probability

80%
60% 40% 20% 0% W S WC m3 W

Figure 1. Oil Hit Probability for the Turtle Nesting Area VEC for each group of accidental scenarios analyzed. Applying the frequencies of hypothetical selected accidental scenarios, the environmental risk is calculated using the DNV software for environmental studies. These results are shown in Figure 2.
Environmental Risk - Turtle Nesting Area Without Risk Reduction Mesures
7,0E-02 6,0E-02 5,0E-02 4,0E-02

Anual Frequency

3,0E-02
2,0E-02 1,0E-02 0,0E+00 8 m3 200 m3 Diesel F1 WC m3 8 m3 200 m3 Crude WC m3

Figure 2. Environmental Risk for Turtle Nesting Area VEC, for each group of accidental scenarios analyzed. To meet the guidance given by the licensing authority on QERA, Risk Tolerability Criteria - RTC defined for this work was based on the requirements of the criteria used for more than 10 years for most companies on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, for example, Statoil, Eni Norge AS, Norway ConocoPhillips, Norske Shell and Exxon Mobil Norway (NORSOK, 1998). The tolerability criteria is defined by the insignificance index, which meets the requirement that the recovery time after an oil spill, should be insignificant compared to the estimated recurrence time of events with the same magnitude for a given region. The comparison of the calculated risk for selected VECs with the tolerability criteria, defined in this work according to NORSOK, is shown in Figure 3.
% of RecurrenceTime Related to Recovery Time Turtle Nesting Area
% Recovery Time / Recurrence Time
30%

25%
20%

15%
10% 5% 0%

14,5%

3,0%

3,5%

0,1%
8 m3 200 m3 WC Diesel WC Crude

3 years of recovery time

Insignificance Index

Figure 3. Comparison of the relationship Recovery Time / Recurrence Time with the Acceptance Criteria. 3

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The results show that for selected VECs, the relationship between Recovery Time and Recurrence Time, by oil volume category, the accidental scenarios that can achieve these valued environmental components are less than 5% (insignificance index), with exception to risk scenarios with small spills (up to 8 m3) of crude oil. This fact contradicts the first evidence observed by the hit probability, which indicates a higher probability for larger volumes of oil release. With the information about which accident scenarios contributes most to the risk, measures were considered to reduce the risk, directly related to them, with better cost-effectiveness, among those evaluated. Figure 4 shows an example of comparison of calculated risk, with and without implement reduction measure to the risk. This is the kind of result that is usually presented in the QERA studies in Brazil.
% of RecurrenceTime Related to Recovery Time Turtle Nesting Area
% Recovery Time / Recurrence Time
30%

25%
20%

15%
10% 5% 0%

14,5%

4,9% 1,2% 8 m3

3,0%

3,5% 3,5%

0,1% 0,1%
WC Diesel WC Crude

200 m3

With Reduction Mesures Insignificance Index

Without Reduction Mesures

Figure 4 - Comparison of the relationship Recovery Time / Recurrence Time for Turtle Nesting Area with the Acceptance Criteria, for risk results with and without implementation of risk reduction measures.

4. Spatial Distribution of the Risk

For the spatial distribution results of the environmental risk, the input data in the calculation model of risk are georeferenced and presented in maps covering the whole direct influence area of the project. Later, the environmental risk and sensitivity of environmental resources are determined for several points. However, the results of environmental spatial distribution of the risk do not consider the sensitivity of the affected environmental resources, since it considers only the probability of oil hit as a consequence. Thus, it was obtained the spatial distribution of the risk, considering the sensitivity of the resources encountered along the coastline that could be hit by the oil. To consider the sensitivity of affected resources it is calculated the relation between the recovery time from different resources and the recurrence time of the accident scenarios identified. In this study, are presented the results obtained with the proposed tool based on hypothetical data and its applicability, mainly for studies of projects that require complex analysis of different sources of risk. In this study, two VECs were selected to calculate the environmental risk, these VECs are: Turtle Nesting Area and Sandy Beaches. The choice of these two VECs was based on the significant presence in the Brazilian coast and in their sensitivity to contamination by oil. The Tuttle Nesting Areas were considered here for 2 concentration points along the coastline and the recovery time associated to it was three years, according to the reproductive cycle (Trong & Chaloupka, 2007). As for the sandy beaches, beaches were considered exposed to wave action, with recovery time estimated by the scientific literature as 2 years (IPIECA, 1991). The probabilistic oil drift modeling of groups of selected scenarios and geographical distribution of VECs discussed here are shown in Figure 5. The results of oil drift modeling are shown in a unified way, considering F1, P1 and P2 as release points, for the purpose of evaluating the occurrence of VECs areas that have the greatest oil hit probability, for all scenarios.

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Figure 5. Unified Probabilistic oil Drift Modeling and geographical distribution of selected VECs (Sandy Beaches and Turtle Nesting Areas). With the data from probabilistic oil drift model and distribution of selected VECs for this study, was defined the oil hit probability for these two VECs, as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6. Oil Hit Probabilities on the selected VECs (Sandy Beaches and Turtle Nesting Areas).

Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 Figure 2 shows that there is a region of the coast line that has the greatest probability of oil hit (in red). This region comprises mainly the central segment of the Sandy Beaches VEC. This result leads us to believe that the entire area associated with greater likelihood of oil hit would also be important in the strategy definition for emergency response plans. When combining frequencies data of accidental scenarios with oil hit probabilities, it is acquire the environmental risk results for the selected VECs. The Figure 7 shows the spatial risk distribution for the 2 selected VECs.

Figure 7. Spatial Risk results for the selected VECs (Sandy Beaches and Turtle Nesting Areas). Figure 7 shows that when the environmental risk is considered, not only the oil hit probability for VECs, the area with the most significant values is more restricted, providing better resolution of the area that could be considered a priority on the emergency response plan. The resolution increases due to the fact that, when it is analyzed the environmental risk, it is considered the oil hit probabilities and also the frequency of accidental scenarios. In the way that the environmental risk is calculated, according to the methodology that has been required by Brazilian environmental agency, it is not directly considered the sensitivity of the VECs to oil contamination. This sensitivity is addressed in terms of recovery time of the VECs, when the acceptance criteria of the risks is defined, through the relationship Recovery Time / Recurrence Time. Different environmental resources have different sensitivities to oil contamination and different recovery times (IPIECA, 2000). Response to spills should seek to minimize the severity of the environmental damage and to hasten the recovery of any damaged ecosystem (IPIECA, 1991). Thus, the environmental resources with greater sensitivities and longer estimated recovery times have to be prioritized on the emergency response, both in the prevention of oil contamination (preventive containment) and in the environment cleaning process. Thus, the response strategy to this type of accident must consider not only the risk of oil hit to the environmental resources, but also the recovery time of these resources, allocating the response equipment and developing response procedures, in order to minimize the severity of damages. In order to consider the recovery time of the VECs selected for this study, we considered the spatial distribution of the relationship Recovery Time / Recurrence Time. This relationship is shown in Figure 8.

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Figure 8. Spatial distribution of the relation Recovery Time / Recurrence Time of the selected VECs (Sandy Beaches and Turtle Nesting Areas). The results of the spatial distribution of the relationship Recovery Time / Recurrence Time, in the hypothetical case assumed by the current study, show that in fact there are two priority areas for oil spill response strategy. These areas correspond to: part of the coastline with Sandy Beaches and part with Turtle Nesting Areas. When comparing the spatial distribution of relationship Recovery Time / Recurrence Time, oil hit probabilities and the environmental risk results, it can be seen that the first (Recovery Time / Recurrence Time) provides higher resolution of results, restricting the priority areas to the oil spill emergency response plans. Different of what is currently used in Brazil to develop the emergency response plans (Environmental Sensitivity Charts and Vulnerability Analysis), which considers the oil hit probabilities for the environmental resources to be affected by oil and the sensitivity of these resources, the tool considers also the frequencies of the accidental scenarios. Thus, the tool presents the geographic areas, with different environmental resources, which are exposed to greater risks due to oil exploration and production in offshore areas. This results shows that the methodology could be a tool for strategic decision making in order to determine the operational procedures and for the allocation of resources presented in emergency plans for oil offshore activities of exploration and production. This tool is even more useful when the analyzed projects have various release points, volumes of oil and types of operating units.

5. Conclusions
The study showed that the total risk result can vary significantly or very little depending on the target scenarios for risk reduction measures. Knowing the contribution of each stage for the total amount of risk, especially in complex projects, and having a tool that can quickly get the results of the implementation of mitigation measures, is an efficient way to test different alternatives and evaluate their responses to different risk of the projects. Thus, management decisions can be taken safely and with better technical base, framing the environmental risk of the project within tolerable levels, as required by the environmental agency. From the analysis employed, its also shown that spatial environmental risk provides a more accurate view of regions with higher probability to suffer more severe environmental consequences due to oil exploration and production in offshore environments. This information can be useful for the development of strategies to minimize the environmental consequences of accidents, especially in complex projects where there are several release points, with different volumes and types of oil. 7

Rio Oil & Gas Expo and Conference 2012 The methodology used here is viable and shows, along with the information that are already used in Brazil for the development of oil spills emergency response plans, such as the Environmental Sensitivity Charts and Vulnerability Analysis, provides greater subsidy for decisions on how to safeguard environmental resources and is thus aligned with the international trend of environmental preservation.

6. Acknowledgements
The authors thank DNV for allowing the dissemination of information on the methodology discussed in this work.

7. References
CARDOSO, C. & VAROVESKA, L. Tomada de Deciso para Reduo do Risco Ambiental Offshore. 4th Latin American Conference on Process Safety. Rio de Janeiro. 2012. IPIECA. - International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association. Choosing spill response options to minimize damage: Net Environmental Benefit Analysis. IPIECA Reports Series, vol.10, 20p, 2000. IPIECA - International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association. Guidelines on Biological Impacts of Oil Pollution. IPIECA Reports Series, vol. 1, 15p, 1991. TRONG, S., CHALOUPKA, M.. Variation in adult annual survival probability and remigration intervals of sea turtles. Marine Biology 151, 1721-1730, 1997.