For immediate release September 26, 2012

Franklin & Marshall College Poll

SURVEY OF PENNSYLVANIANS SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research Floyd Institute for Public Policy Franklin & Marshall College
BERWOOD A. YOST DIRECTOR, FLOYD INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH HEAD METHODOLOGIST, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL G. TERRY MADONNA DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS DIRECTOR, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL ANGELA N. KNITTLE SENIOR PROJECT MANAGER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH PROJECT MANAGER, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL KAY K. HUEBNER PROGRAMMER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH

September 26, 2012

Table of Contents
KEY FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................3 THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN PENNSYLVANIA ......................................................................3 THE US SENATE ELECTION IN PENNSYLVANIA ..........................................................................6 STATE ISSUES: VOTER ID AND THE SANDUSKY INVESTIGATION .................................................7 METHODOLOGY .....................................................................................................................8 ATTACHMENT A .....................................................................................................................9 ATTACHMENT B ...................................................................................................................10 MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT .....................................................................................11

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.
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Key Findings
The September 2012 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds President Barack Obama with a comfortable lead over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney. President Obamas lead over Mitt Romney has increased during the past month. The president enjoys significant advantages over Romney in his personal popularity and most voters believe he better understands their concerns. The president is also thought to be better prepared to handle specific aspects of the presidency, including handling the economy. In the US Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. leads the Republican challenger Tom Smith by a wide margin, although many voters remain undecided at the moment and the race appears much closer among likely voters.

The Presidential Election in Pennsylvania

President Obama has led Mitt Romney in every Franklin & Marshall College Poll since September 2011 (see Figure 1). The president currently leads Romney among registered voters in Pennsylvania 50% to 39% with 6% undecided. The presidents advantage is slightly narrower among likely voters, 52% to 43%, with 3% undecided. President Obama leads in most regions of the state, including Philadelphia, Allegheny County, and the southeast, and he has comfortable leads among young voters, non-whites and women (see Attachment A). Mitt Romney holds an advantage among conservatives, Protestants, and born-again Christians.

Figure 1:

Presidential Horse Race, Pennsylvania September 2012

If the November 2012 general election for president were being held today and the candidates were [rotate] Mitt Romney, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat, would you vote for [rotate] Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, or some other candidate?

September 2012 September August 2012 June 2012 June February 2012 January 2012 January October 2011 August 2011 August

Mitt Romney 39% 38% 36% 33% 30% 26% 30%

Barack Obama Other 50% 44% 48% 41% 41% 35% 36% 10% 8% 8% 6%

DNK 5%6% 3% 15% 5% 12% 18% 24% 30% 27%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Both President Obamas personal favorability ratings and job approval ratings improved in Pennsylvania over the past month. Mitt Romneys favorability ratings have slightly declined. Registered voters in Pennsylvania believe the president is better prepared than Mitt Romney to handle specific aspects of his job and to better reflect their concerns and values; Romney lost the slight advantage on economic issues he had in the August survey (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Presidential Attributes, Pennsylvania September 2012
Regardless of how you plan to vote, which presidential candidate do you think is best described by each of the following statements? Do you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney

Best Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans? understands

Is most prepared to handle foreign policy issues?

32%

59% Barack Obama Mitt Romney 56%

33% 53% 38% 48% 39% 47% 43%

Will better Will better handle the job of commander in chief of the military? handle the job
Is the closest to your views on value issues, such as abortion and gay marriage?

Is most our economic Is most prepared to fixprepared problems? to fix our

0% 25%

50%

75%

100%

President Obamas re-election prospects in Pennsylvania today are quite similar to his position in September 2008 (see Table 1). His personal favorability scores are a bit lower than in 2008, but Mitt Romneys favorability scores are much lower than John McCains were at the time. The presidents job performance scores are also much better than were President Bushs in 2008; President Bushs poor job performance ratings were undeniably a drag on the Republican ticket at the time. Compared to 2004, President Obamas favorability and job performance scores are similar to President Bushs ratings when he stood for re-election, although the
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personal popularity of Mr. Bushs challenger was much higher than Mitt Romneys. Voter interest is currently higher than in 2004 but below the record levels of interest generated during the 2008 campaign.
Table 1: Pennsylvania Survey Indicator Comparison: September 2004, 2008, and 2012

September 2004 Favorable / Unfavorable Challenger Favorable / Unfavorable President Job Performance (Exc+Good / Fair+Poor) Personal Finances (Better / Worse) Voter Interest (very interested) Democratic Candidate Advantage (D% - R%) 46% / 44% (Bush) 41% / 42% (Kerry) 49% / 51% (Bush) 55% -2

September 2008 49% / 30% (Obama) 48% / 36% (McCain) 16% / 83% (Bush) 12% / 40% 71% +7

September 2012 50% / 42% (Obama) 34% / 53% (Romney) 47% / 52% (Obama) 16% / 26% 66% + 11

The US Senate Election in Pennsylvania

Incumbent US Senator Bob Casey, Jr. has a comfortable advantage over his Republican challenger, Tom Smith, 46% to 34%, with one in seven voters undecided (14%). Senator Caseys lead is smaller among likely voters, 48% to 38%, with 8% undecided. Tom Smith is unrecognized by most (50%) of the states voters, although his name recognition has improved since August. Senator Casey leads in most regions of the state and among most voter groups at the moment (see Attachment B).

State Issues: Voter ID and the Sandusky Investigation

Most (87%) Pennsylvania voters accurately report that the state requires photo identification to vote; very few (2%) voters say they lack the identification they need to cast their ballot. Most (59%) registered voters favor the states photo identification requirement. More than nine in ten (95%) voters report knowing a great deal or fair amount about the Jerry Sandusky child abuse case. The candidates running for Attorney General have both called for a review of the case and half (49%) of registered voters agree that the case should be reviewed. Only one in six (17%) registered voters believes Governor Corbett did an excellent or good job of investigating the Sandusky case when he was the Attorney General compared to nearly two in three (65%) who think he did a fair or poor job. Most (54%) registered voters in the state believe the NCAA sanctions imposed as a result of the Sandusky case are unfair.

Methodology
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted September 18 September 23, 2012. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the polls Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle. The data included in this release represent the responses of 632 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 318 Democrats, 236 Republicans, and 78 registered as Independent/Other. The sample of registered voters was obtained from Voter Contact Services. Survey results were weighted (region, gender, and party) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State. The sample error for this survey is +/- 3.9 percentage points. The presidential likely voter model, containing 392 voters, has a sample error of +/- 4.9%. Likely voters are those who indicate they are very much interested in the campaign and are certain to vote. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions.

Attachment A
Horse Race: Obama vs. Romney, Pennsylvania September 2012
If the November 2012 general election for president was being held today and the candidates were [rotate] Mitt Romney, the Republican and Barack Obama, the Democrat, would you vote for: [rotate] Mitt Romney or Barack Obama, or some other candidate? (registered voters) Obama Political Party* Republican Democrat Independent/Other Ideology* Liberal Moderate Conservative Gender** Male Female Age** 18-34 35-54 55 and over Education High school or less 46% Some college 46% College degree 56% Household Income Less than $35,000 51% 53% $35-75,000 53% Over $75,000 Race* Non-white 87% 47% White Marital Status* Not currently married 60% Single, never married 53% Married 47% Religious Affiliation* Other/unaffiliated 72% 40% Protestant 45% Catholic Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist* Yes 33% 58% No Household Union Member Yes 56% No 49% Military Veteran Yes 46% No 51% Region* Northeast 61% 75% Philadelphia 54% Southeast 54% Northwest 38% Central 57% Allegheny 28% Southwest Employment Fulltime 48% Other 50% 53% Retired 40% 43% 35% 35% 38% 40% 6% 42% 28% 30% 43% 19% 48% 44% 54% 32% 34% 40% 45% 37% 26% 16% 36% 37% 49% 35% 60% 39% 35% 41% 7% 3% 5% 7% 3% 4% 2% 5% 5% 14% 3% 6% 5% 5% 8% 4% 4% 5% 4% 6% 7% 4% 5% 4% 5% 7% 4% 6% 8% 2% 7% 7% 4% 6% 6% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2% 6% 3% 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 4% 6% 7% 4% 5% 6% 8% 2% 8% 7% 7% 4% 55% 46% 52% 27% 42% 39% 12% 6% 4% 6% 7% 5% 45% 56% 45% 33% 5% 5% 5% 6% 87% 62% 12% 4% 22% 81% 3% 7% 4% 6% 9% 3% 10% 82% 44% 81% 8% 32% 5% 4% 11% 3% 6% 12% Romney Other Dont know

* p<0.01

** p<0.05

Attachment B
Horse Race: Casey vs. Smith, Pennsylvania September 2012
If the November 2012 general election for U.S. Senator was being held today and the candidates were [rotate] Tom Smith, the Republican, and Bob Casey, Jr., the Democrat, would you vote for: [rotate] Tom Smith, Bob Casey, Jr., or some other candidate? (registered voters) Casey Political Party* Republican Democrat Independent/Other Ideology* Liberal Moderate Conservative Gender* Male Female Age** 18-34 35-54 55 and over Education* High school or less 41% Some college 39% College degree 53% Household Income Less than $35,000 44% 46% $35-75,000 53% Over $75,000 Race* Non-white 71% 44% White Marital Status Not currently married 51% Single, never married 49% Married 44% Religious Affiliation* Other/unaffiliated 64% 37% Protestant 42% Catholic Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist* Yes 31% 54% No Household Union Member Yes 54% No 44% Military Veteran** Yes 40% No 47% Region** Northeast 47% 68% Philadelphia 49% Southeast 44% Northwest 35% Central 52% Allegheny 41% Southwest Employment Fulltime 45% Other 45% 46% Retired 36% 37% 32% 32% 37% 33% 6% 37% 28% 27% 37% 16% 43% 40% 46% 29% 32% 35% 46% 32% 32% 16% 36% 34% 40% 26% 45% 34% 31% 38% 9% 6% 3% 9% 6% 3% 9% 6% 4% 7% 6% 6% 4% 8% 7% 6% 4% 6% 5% 6% 5% 7% 2% 9% 7% 9% 6% 6% 9% 4% 13% 18% 12% 15% 11% 11% 14% 13% 17% 16% 13% 13% 17% 10% 17% 12% 10% 14% 9% 15% 17% 9% 13% 13% 17% 13% 9% 15% 15% 12% 49% 46% 45% 22% 34% 37% 4% 7% 6% 25% 13% 11% 42% 50% 42% 28% 5% 6% 12% 16% 84% 57% 10% 4% 20% 73% 5% 8% 3% 7% 16% 14% 12% 74% 34% 73% 7% 28% 2% 6% 14% 12% 13% 24% Smith Other Dont know

* p<0.01

** p<0.05

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Marginal Frequency Report

Responses may not total 100% due to rounding.

REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you CURRENTLY REGISTERED to vote at your present address? 100% 0% Yes No

RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as something else? 37% 50% 11% 2% Republican Democrat Independent Something else

IntFav. Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today. Is your opinion of [FILL name] favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or havent you heard enough about [FILL name] to have an opinion? (rotated) Strongly favorable BARACK OBAMA Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Feb 2012 Jan 2012 Mar 2011 May 2010 Mar 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2010 Oct 2009 Aug 2009 Jun 2009 Feb 2009 Oct 2008 Sep 2008 Aug 2008 MITT ROMNEY Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Feb 2012 Jan 2012 35% 25% 26% 23% 25% 17% 26% 25% 27% 23% 29% 29% 39% 38% 38% 31% 25% 18% 14% 11% 6% 4% Somewhat favorable 15% 21% 21% 22% 20% 24% 18% 17% 22% 21% 16% 26% 17% 18% 15% 18% 18% 16% 18% 16% 21% 21% Somewhat unfavorable 6% 8% 11% 12% 12% 11% 12% 13% 10% 11% 12% 9% 6% 8% 8% 9% 7% 13% 17% 17% 18% 13% Strongly unfavorable 36% 37% 33% 35% 32% 33% 34% 33% 29% 33% 27% 28% 21% 15% 25% 21% 22% 40% 32% 31% 26% 22% Undecided 7% 7% 9% 8% 9% 14% 10% 11% 11% 10% 13% 7% 14% 17% 12% 17% 23% 10% 13% 16% 21% 21% Dont know 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1% 3% 4% 3% 3% 5% 3% 6% 10% 8% 19%

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Strongly favorable BOB CASEY Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Jan 2012 Mar 2011 May 2010 Mar 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2010 Oct 2009 Aug 2009 Jun 2009 Feb 2009 TOM SMITH Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 TOM CORBETT Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Jan 2012 Mar 2011 Oct 2010 Sep 2010 Aug 2010 May 2010 Mar 2010 14% 11% 14% 9% 6% 10% 9% 13% 9% 11% 17% 11% 11% 8% 5% 2% 13% 7% 7% 6% 14% 17% 12% 8% 7% 8%

Somewhat favorable 23% 25% 24% 20% 19% 23% 24% 20% 23% 21% 24% 21% 19% 12% 8% 6% 17% 25% 25% 23% 19% 18% 15% 19% 17% 14%

Somewhat unfavorable 13% 12% 10% 9% 11% 9% 10% 9% 11% 9% 10% 12% 9% 7% 4% 2% 13% 15% 14% 15% 8% 8% 5% 7% 5% 4%

Strongly unfavorable 16% 10% 8% 8% 8% 11% 11% 9% 9% 12% 8% 5% 8% 11% 4% 4% 29% 27% 25% 17% 15% 9% 5% 8% 5% 3%

Undecided 13% 16% 14% 18% 19% 16% 17% 15% 17% 15% 17% 17% 21% 13% 11% 8% 14% 14% 15% 18% 24% 17% 17% 19% 17% 17%

Dont know 22% 27% 29% 35% 37% 31% 29% 34% 31% 32% 24% 34% 32% 49% 68% 77% 14% 13% 14% 20% 21% 31% 45% 40% 49% 54%

Vote_Nov. Many people will vote in the election for president in November, however, many other people will not. What would you say are the chances you will vote in the November presidential election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances fifty-fifty you will vote, OR don't you think that you will vote in the November election for president? 91% 5% 3% 1% Certain to vote Will probably vote Chances 50-50 Dont think will vote

Pol_Int. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you arevery much interested, somewhat interested or not very interested in the 2012 elections? Very much interested 66% 58% 51% 52% 46% Somewhat interested 29% 34% 38% 39% 44% Not very interested 6% 8% 11% 9% 11%

Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Feb 2012 Jan 2012

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Vot08. Did you vote in the last presidential election in 2008, or not? 97% 3% Yes No

Vot08pref. Did you vote for Barack Obama, John McCain, or some other candidate in 2008? 57% 40% 3% 1% Obama McCain Other Do not know

Pres2012. If the November 2012 general election for president was being held today and the candidates were [rotate] Mitt Romney the Republican and Barack Obama the Democrat, would you vote for: [rotate] Mitt Romney or Barack Obama, or some other candidate? Obama Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Feb 2012 Jan 2012 Oct 2011 Aug 2011 50% 44% 48% 41% 41% 35% 36% Romney 39% 38% 36% 33% 30% 26% 30% Other 5% 3% 5% 8% 6% 10% 8% Dont know 6% 15% 12% 18% 24% 30% 27%

CertPres Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [candidate] in the election, or are you still making up your mind? (589 respondents with a vote choice) Certain Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 88% 84% 82% Making up Mind 12% 15% 17% Dont know 0% 0% 1%

LeanPres As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) or are you leaning toward some other candidate? (43 undecided respondents) Rotated Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Obama 32% 22% 30% Romney 9% 24% 15% Other 14% 10% 12% Dont know 46% 44% 43%

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IntDesPres Regardless of how you plan to vote, which presidential candidate do you think is best described by each of the following statements? Do you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney September 2012 Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans? Is most prepared to fix our economic problems? Is closest to your views on value issues, such as abortion and gay marriage? Will better handle the job of commander in chief of the military? Is most prepared to handle foreign policy issues? Obama 59% 47% 48% 53% 56% Romney 32% 43% 39% 38% 33% Dont know 9% 10% 14% 9% 11%

August 2012 Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans? Is most prepared to fix our economic problems? Is closest to your views on value issues, such as abortion and gay marriage? Will better handle the job of commander in chief of the military? Is most prepared to handle foreign policy issues?

Obama 57% 42% 44% 47% 53%

Romney 30% 44% 42% 37% 34%

Dont know 13% 15% 14% 16% 13%

June 2012 Best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans? Is most prepared to fix our economic problems? Is closest to your views on value issues, such as abortion and gay marriage? Will better handle the job of commander in chief of the military? Is most prepared to handle foreign policy issues?

Obama 57% 44% 47% 51% 57%

Romney 31% 38% 37% 33% 29%

Dont know 13% 18% 15% 16% 14%

VID1. Which of the following comes closest to your view about the rules that relate to voting in Pennsylvania? Do you think voting rules should encourage as many people to vote as possible so everyones views are represented in our elections OR do you think voting rules should encourage only interested and informed people to vote so better decisions are made in our elections? 78% 17% 2% 4% Encourage as many people to vote as possible Encourage only interested and informed people to vote Neither Do not know

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Sen2012 If the November 2012 general election for U.S. SENATOR was being held today and the candidates were [rotate] Tom Smith, the Republican and Bob Casey Jr., the Democrat, would you vote for: [rotate] Tom Smith or Bob Casey Jr., or some other candidate? Casey Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 46% 35% 42% Smith 34% 23% 21% Other 6% 2% 2% Dont know 14% 39% 35%

CertSen. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [candidate] in the election, or are you still making up your mind? (542 respondents with a vote choice) Certain Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 72% 74% 73% Making up Mind 27% 26% 25% Dont know 1% 1% 2%

LeanSen. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) or are you leaning toward some other candidate? (90 undecided respondents) Rotated Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Casey 14% 18% 19% Smith 13% 13% 10% Other 2% 6% 9% Dont know 72% 62% 63%

Rate_Gov. How would you rate the way that Tom Corbett is handling his job as Governor? Would you say he is doing an Excellent Job 4% 3% 5% 6% 5% Good Job 26% 25% 33% 26% 26% Only a Fair Job 36% 40% 43% 46% 39% Poor Job 28% 26% 11% 14% 13% Dont Know 6% 6% 8% 9% 18%

Sep 2012 Aug 2012 Oct 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2011

PS1a . A former assistant coach at Penn State, Jerry Sandusky, was recently convicted on child abuse charges.How much have you read, seen or heard about this case.. a great deal, a fair amount, not much, or nothing at all? 66% 29% 4% 1% A great deal A fair amount Not much Nothing at all

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PS1b The candidates running for state Attorney General have both said they would review the way the Sandusky case was investigated by Governor Tom Corbett when he was Attorney General. Do you think the handling of the Sandusky case should be reviewed further, or not? (624 respondents with knowledge of the case) 49% 42% 9% Yes No Do not know

PS2. How would you rate the way Governor Corbett handled the Sandusky case when he was Attorney General. Would you say he did an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job of handling the Sandusky case when he was Attorney General? (624 respondents with knowledge of the case) 2% 15% 27% 39% 18% An excellent job A good job Only a fair job A poor job Do not know

PS3. The NCAA imposed severe penalties on Penn State for its handling of the Sandusky case. Do you think these penalties against the university areVery fair, Somewhat fair, Somewhat Unfair or Not fair at all? (624 respondents with knowledge of the case) 14% 29% 28% 26% 3% Very fair Somewhat fair Somewhat unfair Not fair at all Do not know

RateSenC. How would you rate the way that Bob Casey, JR. is handling his job as U.S. SENATOR? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as U.S. Senator? Excellent Job 7% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 3% 7% 5% Good Job 31% 32% 33% 26% 31% 33% 27% 26% 31% 37% Only a Fair Job 32% 37% 32% 43% 36% 38% 43% 39% 32% 36% Poor Job 15% 11% 8% 12% 11% 9% 9% 9% 10% 7% Dont Know 16% 16% 21% 15% 19% 16% 16% 23% 20% 15%

Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Feb 2012 Jan 2012 Oct 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2011 Feb 2009 Aug 2007

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RatePres. How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job as President? Excellent job Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Feb 2012 Jan 2012 Oct 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2011 Oct 2010 Sep 2010 Aug 2010 May 2010 Mar 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2010 Oct 2009 Aug 2009 Jun 2009 Mar 2009 Feb 2009 18% 12% 13% 11% 9% 9% 9% 7% 8% 10% 9% 14% 12% 12% 11% 17% 14% 20% 23% 25% Good job 29% 31% 29% 26% 31% 28% 25% 28% 24% 26% 28% 24% 28% 29% 27% 23% 33% 35% 37% 30% Only a fair job 19% 23% 30% 29% 29% 31% 33% 30% 31% 33% 28% 32% 27% 32% 32% 31% 29% 25% 22% 23% Poor job 33% 33% 28% 35% 30% 32% 33% 34% 36% 30% 35% 29% 32% 27% 29% 28% 24% 19% 14% 13% Dont know 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 4% 9%

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FinToday. We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that YOU and YOUR FAMILY are better off, worse off, or about the same financially as you were a year ago? Better off Sep 2012* Aug 2012* June 2012* Feb 2012* Jan 2012* Mar 2011 Aug 2010 May 2010 Mar 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2010 Oct 2009 Aug 2009 Jun 2009 Mar 2009 Feb 2009 Oct 2008* Sep 2008* Aug 2008* Feb 2008* Jan 2008* Nov 2005 Sep 2005 Jun 2005 Mar 2005 Nov 2003 Apr 2003 Sep 2002* Jun 2002* Jul 1999 Jul 1998 Mar 1998 Jul 1996 Feb 1996 Apr 1995 16% 15% 16% 16% 15% 11% 13% 14% 13% 13% 10% 8% 9% 11% 11% 10% 14% 12% 16% 20% 17% 20% 17% 24% 21% 17% 16% 25% 29% 31% 31% 31% 21% 21% 26% Worse off 26% 27% 27% 28% 26% 31% 33% 39% 36% 41% 40% 36% 39% 43% 36% 44% 44% 40% 37% 29% 25% 28% 36% 24% 28% 29% 30% 26% 20% 16% 16% 16% 22% 21% 21% About the same 57% 58% 57% 56% 60% 57% 54% 46% 51% 46% 50% 55% 52% 45% 53% 46% 42% 47% 46% 51% 57% 51% 47% 52% 51% 53% 54% 47% 50% 52% 52% 52% 56% 57% 52% Dont know 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

*Question asked of registered respondents only

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FinFut. Now looking AHEAD, do you think that A YEAR FROM NOW, YOU and YOUR FAMILY will be better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you are now? Better off Sep 2012* Aug 2012* June 2012* Feb 2012* Jan 2012* Mar 2011 Aug 2010 May 2010 Mar 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2010 Oct 2009 Aug 2009 Jun 2009 Mar 2009 Feb 2009 Oct 2008* Sep 2008* Aug 2008* Nov 2005 Sep 2005 Jun 2005 Mar 2005 Nov 2003 Apr 2003 Sep 2002* Jun 2002* Jul 1999 Jul 1998 Mar 1998 Jul 1996 Feb 1996 Apr 1995 26% 25% 21% 23% 27% 27% 24% 29% 27% 28% 27% 31% 31% 32% 27% 29% 33% 25% 28% 29% 27% 32% 31% 33% 27% 38% 35% 38% 41% 39% 24% 29% 37% Worse off 9% 11% 14% 13% 13% 26% 15% 17% 17% 18% 17% 14% 19% 21% 12% 19% 14% 18% 15% 20% 23% 15% 20% 13% 17% 8% 6% 8% 9% 7% 12% 16% 12% About the same 53% 52% 57% 58% 53% 43% 54% 49% 50% 47% 49% 50% 47% 41% 55% 45% 40% 42% 45% 48% 45% 48% 45% 49% 51% 43% 49% 50% 45% 50% 54% 49% 44% Dont know 12% 12% 8% 6% 6% 5% 7% 5% 6% 7% 7% 5% 3% 6% 6% 7% 14% 15% 12% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 11% 10% 4% 5% 4% 10% 6% 7%

*Question asked of registered respondents only

PRTY1. Regardless of how you are registered in politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? 20% 9% 11% 9% 10% 9% 32% 0% 1% Strong Republican Republican Lean Republican Pure Independent Lean Democrat Democrat Strong Democrat Other Do not know

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VID2. Is the following statement true or false: The state of Pennsylvania requires voters to show stateapproved photo identification when they vote. 87% 10% 4% True False Do not know

VID3. (if VID2 not True: Actually, starting) Starting in November, all state voters will be required to show a state-approved photo ID like a drivers license, passport, or military ID when they vote. Do you currently have a state-approved photo ID, or not? 99% 2% Yes No

VID4. Many who favor the voter ID requirement believe it is needed to prevent voter fraud and that few eligible voters will be kept from voting because of the requirement. Many who oppose the voter ID requirement say this kind of voter fraud almost never happens and that many eligible voters will be kept from voting because of the requirement. Do you favor or oppose requiring voters to show a photo ID when they vote? 46% 13% 9% 30% 3% Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Do not know

VID5fav. Would you still favor this law if you knew that many eligible voters will be prevented from voting because they will not have a proper ID? (370 respondents who favor law) 54% 21% 12% 9% 4% Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Do not know

VID5opp. Would you still oppose this law if you knew that voter fraud might occur without it? (245 respondent who oppose law) 5% 18% 18% 50% 9% Strongly favor Somewhat favor Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Do not know

Int_IDEO. Today people are often described as liberal, moderate, or conservative IDEOlib. IDEOmod. IDEOcon. What do you think the term liberal means? What do you think the term moderate means? What do you think the term conservative means? (not coded) (not coded) (not coded)

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DEMO I now have a final few questions for statistical purposes only. CNTY. Region of state (What is the name of the county you live in?) 9% 12% 11% 9% 9% 26% 24% Philadelphia Northeast Allegheny Southwest Northwest Central Southeast

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday? 4% 8% 12% 19% 21% 37% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older

EDUC. What was the highest grade level of schooling you have completed? 3% 26% 16% 11% 24% 20% Non high school graduate High school graduate or GED Some college Two-year or tech degree Four year college degree Post graduate degree

MAR. What is your CURRENT marital statusare you single, married, separated, divorced, or a widower? 15% 67% 1% 8% 10% Single, Never Married Married Separated Divorced Widow or widower

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IDEO. Politically speaking, do you consider yourself to be a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative? Liberal Sep 2012 Aug 2012 June 2012 Feb 2012 Jan 2011 Oct 2011 Aug 2011 Mar 2011 Oct 2010 Sep 2010 Aug 2010 May 2010 Mar 2010 Feb 2010 Jan 2010 26% 21% 25% 17% 21% 20% 24% 16% 16% 15% 19% 19% 17% 21% 19% Moderate 34% 40% 34% 39% 39% 39% 32% 33% 37% 34% 32% 32% 35% 33% 30% Conservative 35% 36% 36% 40% 36% 33% 37% 41% 39% 40% 40% 40% 40% 37% 42% Dont know 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 8% 7% 10% 8% 10% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9%

LABR. Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION? 18% 82% Yes No

VET. Are you a military veteran? 17% 82% Yes No

Hisp. Are you Hispanic or Latino, or not? 1% 99% Yes No

RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background? 91% 9% White Non-white

REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not affiliated with any religion? 37% 34% 14% 14% Protestant Catholic Some other religion Not affiliated with any religion

BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist, or not? 29% 68% 2% Yes No Dont know

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WORK. Are you currently working FULL-time, PART-time, going to school, keeping house or something else? 42% 11% 2% 6% 2% 3% 34% Full-time Part-time Going to school Keeping house Unemployed Disabled Retired

INC1. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $50,000 per year? 17% 12% 12% 23% 12% 21% 3% Under $25,000 $25-$35,000 $35-50,000 $50-75,000 $75-100,000 Over $100,000 Dont know

DONE. Sex of respondent: 48% 52% Male Female

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