Colorado Results

For 9/21/2012 - 9/22/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Executive Summary On the afternoon and evenings of September 21 22, 2012, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm, and Capitol Correspondent conducted a survey of 765 likely voters in Colorado regarding their likely vote for a given presidential candidate. Overall, among likely voters, Obama holds a 4.7% lead, with 4.3% of likely voters still undecided. The group of undecided voters is likely larger than 4.3% given, with another 2.8% indicating only a somewhat preference towards a given candidate. A summary of the results is presented in the following pages.
45.6% 50% Presidential Race

40%

% of Total

30%

20%

10% 2.5% 2.1% 4.3% 1.4%

0% Somewhat likely Obama Very likely Obama Likely Obama Undecided

0.7%

Very likely Romney

Somewhat likely Romney

Likely Romney

43.4%

Survey Questions 1. Are you registered to vote? (Yes, No) No crosstabs available for this question because if an individual answered no, the questionnaire stopped. 2. How likely are you to vote in this years presidential elections? (Very unlikely, Unlikely, Somewhat unlikely, Somewhat likely, Likely, Very likely) When looking at just the very likely category, Obamas lead declines to +1.9%, with 3.7% of likely voters still undecided.
Likelihood to vote - overall sample
73.3%

Likelihood to vote 44.2% 40% Very unlikely % of Total 42.3%

70%

20%

60%

5.8% 0%
50%

1.9% 45.4%

1.9%

3.8% 45.0%

40%
% of Total 40%

Very likely

% of Total

20%

30%

0% Very likely Obama

20.9% 20%

2.2% 1.5% 3.7% 0.7% 1.5% Somewhat likely Romney Somewhat likely Obama Very likely Romney Likely Romney Likely Obama Undecided

10% 4.0% 0% Very unlikely 0.7% Unlikely 1.1% Somewhat unlikely Somewhat likely Very likely

Note: The Somewhat unlikely, Unlikely, Somewhat likely, and Likely categories lacked sufficient sample size and are therefore not reported in the presidential crosstabulation.

Party affiliation 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 50 0 Democrat 28.4% Republican 31.9% Independent/Other 39.7% % of Total 100%

Political affiliation - overall sample

Independe.. Republican % of Total 100% 100% 150% 50% 50% % of Total 150%

Democrat % of Total 100% 150% 50%

50%

0% Very unlikely 17.9% Unlikely 1.8% Democrat Somewhat 1.8% likely Very likely 78.6%

Very likely Obama

50.4%

10.6%

76.0%

Political affiliation by likelihood to vote

3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of? (Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party)

Obama holds a 77.0% to 18.3% advantage among Democrats, whereas Romney holds a 86.8% to 11.5% advantage among Republicans. The current slight edge for Obama is stemming from Independent/Other voters.

3
Very unlikely 10.3% Somewhat 1.6% unlikely Republican Somewhat likely 0.8% Very likely 87.3% Very unlikely 21.0% Unlikely 0.6% Somewhat 1.3% unlikely Somewhat likely Very likely 9.6% Independent/Other 67.5%

Likel.. 5.0%

1.0%

Somewhat 5.9% likely Oba..

0.9%

Political Affiliation

Undecided 6.7%

1.8%

4.8%

Somewhat 1.7% likely Ro..

1.0%

Likely 1.7% Romney

2.7%

1.0%

Very likely Romney

28.6%

84.1%

16.3%

4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Other) The poll makeup was 83.8% White, 9.1% Hispanic, and 7.1% Other or Refuse. On the whole, Romney holds a 45.0% to 44.2% lead among very likely White voters, and Obama holds a 53.3% to 36.7% lead among very likely Hispanic voters and a 45.5% to 31.8% very likely Other race voters.
Race - overall sample
90% 83.8%

Race 60% 44.2% % of Total 40% White 45.0%

80%

20% 0% 60% 1.5% 2.6% 4.1% 1.1% 1.5% 53.3% 36.7%

70%

% of Total

60%

40%

Hispanic
50% % of Total

20% 6.7% 0% 60% 3.3%

40%

45.5% % of Total 40% Other 31.8%

30%

20% 4.5% 0% Somewhat likely Romney Likely Romney Somewhat likely Obama Very likely Romney Likely Obama Very likely Obama Undecided 9.1% 9.1%

20%

10%

9.1% 7.1%

0% White Hispanic Other

5. Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation? (Roman Catholic, Protestant/other non-denominational Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Other/no affiliation) The largest voting groups by religious affiliation are Protestant/Other Christian, Not affiliated or Other, and Catholic. Of these groups, Obama holds a 8.3% lead among likely voters and a 64.4% to 29.6% lead among voters not affiliated with a specific religion. On the other hand, Romney strength stems from Protestant/Other Christian voters, where he holds a 20.4% lead.
Religious Affiliation - overall sample
42.8%

Religious Affiliation 60% 52.1% 40% 20% 0% % of Total 60% 40% 35.2% 20% 0% 2.8% 3.5% 3.5% 60.0% 40.0% 4.2% 6.3% 54.9% 37.5%

45%

Catholic

40% 35.9%

35%

Protestant/Ot her Christian

30%

% of Total

25%

% of Total % of Total % of Total

60% 40% 20% 0%

Jewish
20% 17.1%

15%

60% 55.9% 40% 20% 0% Very likely Obama 1.7% Likely Obama 6.8% 5.9% Somewhat likely Romney Somewhat likely Obama Undecided 28.8% 0.8% Very likely Romney Likely Romney

10%

Other/Not affiliated

5%

3.0%

0% Catholic Protestant/Other Christian Jewish Other/Not affiliated Muslim

1.1%

Note: sample size on Muslim voters was not large enough to warrant crosstabulation reporting.

6. How old are you? (18-29, 30-49, 50-64, Over 65) Overall, Obama has an advantage among the under 50 voting group, while Romney gains his advantage among the over 50 age group. The distinctions are most apparent when looking at the younger voting age population (18-29) in comparison to the older voting age population (65+), where Obama holds a 28 point advantage among the former, while Romney has a 15 point advantage among the latter.
Age - overall sample
60% 54.0% % of Total
40.8% 40%

Age group

40% 20% 0% 60% 43.3% 40% 20% 0% 2.8% 2.8% 5.7% 1.4% 2.1% 46.9% 4.0% 6.0%

36.0%

18-29

35%

30%

29.2%

30-49

25% % of Total

% of Total

41.8%

60% % of Total 45.9% 40% 20% 0%

15.5%

50-64
20%

1.0%

3.1%

3.1% 51.1%

15%

14.6%

60% % of Total 40% 36.2% 20% 8.5% 0% Very likely Obama 2.1% Somewhat likely Obama Likely Obama Undecided 2.1% Somewhat likely Romney Likely Romney

65+
10%

5%

0% 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+

Very likely Romney

7. What is your Gender? (Male, Female) Overall, Romney holds a lead among men of 47.9% to 47.7%, whereas Obama has a lead among women by a 50.9% to 44.4% margin.
Gender - overall sample
60%
50% 50.0% 50.0%

Gender 46.7% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 1.2% 4.7% Somewhat likely 0.6% Obama 1.8% 2.4%

Men
40%

% of Total

45%

40%

20%
35%

30% % of Total

50.3%

0% 60%

39.5%

25%

20%

Women

% of Total

40%

20%
15%

10%

0% Very likely Obama Likely Obama

5%

0% Men Women

Very likely Romney

Somewhat likely Romney

Likely Romney

Undecided

40.2%

8. If the presidential election were held today, whom would you vote for? (Very likely Obama, Likely Obama, Somewhat likely Obama, Undecided, Somewhat likely Romney, Likely Romney, Very likely Romney) The dashboard below summarizes the survey. Overall, as has always been the case, it appears the currently undecided will decide the race.
Gender % of Total % of Total Indep.. Repu.. Dem.. 60% 39.5% 40% 20% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 60% 50.3% 40% 20% Likely Obama Very likely .. % of .. % of .. % of .. 46.7% 1.2% 40.2% 0.6% 4.7% 1.8% 2.4% Likely Romn.. Very likely .. Undec.. Somew hat lik.. Somew hat lik.. 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% Very likely Obama 10.6% 50.4% 5.0% Likely Obama 5.9% Somew hat likely .. 6.7% Undec.. 1.7% Somew hat likely .. 1.7% Likely Romn.. 43.4% 2.5% 2.1% 4.3% Some what 0.7% likely.. 1.4% Likely Oba.. Some what likely.. Religious Affiliation Catholic Protestant/Ot her Christian Jewish Other/Not affiliated 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100% 0% % o.. % .. % o.. % o.. 4.2% 6.3% 35.2% 40.0% 55.9% 1.7% 6.8% 5.9% Likely Obama Very likely .. Undec.. Somew hat lik.. Somew hat lik.. 0.8% Likely Romn.. 2.8% 3.5% 3.5% 60.0% 28.8% Very likely .. 37.5% 54.9% Hispanic Other % of .. % of .. % of .. 52.1% White 50% 0% 50% 0% 50% 0% 44.2% 1.5% 2.6% 4.1% 1.1% 1.5% 53.3% 6.7% 45.5% 4.5% 9.1% Likely Obama Very likely .. Undec.. Somew hat lik.. Somew hat lik.. 9.1% Likely Romn.. 3.3% 31.8% Very likely .. 36.7% Unde.. Race 45.0% 0.9% 1.8% 2.7% 28.6% Very likely Romn.. 76.0% 1.0% 4.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.3% 84.1% Political Affiliation

Men

Women

Presidential Race 60% % of Total 40% 20% 0% Very likely Oba.. 45.6%

Note: the statistical methodology comprised weighing sex and age for anticipated voting proportions for the 2012 General Election.

Likely Rom..

Very likely Rom..