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THE TARRANCE GROUP

www.tarrance.com

MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

INTERESTED PARTIES ED GOEAS BATTLE OVER MIDDLE CLASS AND MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES

OCTOBER 7, 2012 ________________________________________________________________________

The latest Politico/GWU Battleground Poll conducted October 1st-4th shows an extremely close race that continues to tighten Romney 48% and Obama 49%. (It should be noted that 85% of this survey was fielded before the Wednesday night debate.) The most significant shift in the data over the last three weeks, however, has not been with the ballot, but with the intensity advantage that has reemerged between Democratic and Republican voters. Over the last three weeks, vote intensity has grown from even, between Democratic and Republican voters, to last week where Republicans vote intensity was five-points higher than that of Democratic voters, to this week where Republicans have an eight-point advantage. Even more important has been the growth of vote intensity of Romney voters over that of the supporters of Barack Obama. That intensity advantage has grown from even, to plus seven percent in last weeks data, to today, where Romney voters are now thirteen-points more intense than Obama voters. In the battle over middle class voters and middle class families, Mitt Romney continues to have a small lead with middle class voters (50% Romney/48% Obama), but has solidified a substantial sixteen-point lead with middle class families. Middle class families are driving the higher vote intensity and focus on the economy within the electorate, running 6% higher in vote intensity than high income voters and 14% ahead of low income voters, and holding more than a ten percent higher focus on pocketbook issues than any other voter group.

The Tarrance Group (October 5, 2012)

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Ballot Handling Economy Handling Foreign Policy Budget and Spending Taxes Medicare Jobs Standing up for the Middle Class Sharing Your Values Strong Leader Can Get Things Done

TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) ROMNEY OBAMA 48% 49% 49% 47% 44% 50%

MIDDLE CLASS (76% of Sample) ROMNEY OBAMA 50% 48% 51% 46% 46% 48%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (55% of Sample) ROMNEY OBAMA 57% 41% 58% 38% 50% 42%

50% 44% 42% 49% 40%

44% 50% 51% 46% 56%

53% 47% 44% 52% 42%

42% 49% 50% 45% 55%

61% 53% 50% 59% 48%

34% 42% 42% 37% 49%

44%

50%

47%

49%

52%

42%

45% 46%

50% 46%

48% 48%

48% 45%

54% 55%

41% 39%

Obama Re-elect

TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) Re-elect Replace 46% 40%

MIDDLE CLASS (76%) Re-elect Replace 45% 42%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (55%) Re-elect Replace 38% 48%

Barack Obama Image Mitt Romney Image

TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) Favorable Unfavorable 52% 45%

MIDDLE CLASS (76%) Favorable Unfavorable 50% 47%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (55%) Favorable Unfavorable 44% 54%

47%

47%

50%

45%

57%

39%

The Tarrance Group (October 5, 2012)

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TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) Right Dir. Wrong Track Right Direction/ Wrong Track 39% 54%

MIDDLE CLASS (76%) Right Wrong Track Dir. 39% 55%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (55%) Right Dir. Wrong Track 34% 61%

Overall Job Approval Job Approval on Economy Job Approval on Spending

TOTAL SAMPLE (100%) Approve Disapprove 50% 48%

MIDDLE CLASS (76%) Approve Disapprove 49% 50%

MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES (55%) Approve Disapprove 41% 57%

45%

53%

44%

54%

37%

61%

39%

57%

38%

59%

30%

67%

The Tarrance Group (October 5, 2012)

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Conclusion Voters who comprise middle class families are clearly driving both vote intensity within the American Electorate and their focus on pocketbook issues. These voters are most negative about both the direction of the country and give the President some of his most negative marks of any voter group on his overall job performance, performance on the economy, and performance on spending. Most importantly, middle class families give Romney the nod on every issue handling measurement except, ironically, on the measurement of standing up for the middle class which they are tied including double digit leads for Mitt Romney on handling of the Economy (+20), Spending (+27), Taxes (+11), and jobs (+22). Middle class voters and middle class families comprise the voters that Mitt Romney is performing well above traditional vote behavior, a group who is certainly hearing his economic message and taking it to heart.

The Tarrance Group (October 5, 2012)

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