201 N Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, Virginia 22314 (703) 684-6688 (703) 836-8256 FAX dsackett@tarrance.

com

THE TARRANCE GROUP

www.tarrance.com

MEMORANDUM

TO: RICKY GILL FOR CONGRESS COMMITTEE NATIONAL REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE DAVE SACKETT KEY FINDINGS FROM A SURVEY OF VOTER ATTITUDES IN THE NINTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA

FROM: RE:

DATE:

OCTOBER 3, 2012 ________________________________________________________________________

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the Ricky Gill for Congress Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee with the key findings from a survey of voter attitudes in the Ninth Congressional District of California. These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=409 likely registered voters throughout district. Responses to this survey were gathered September 30 October 2, 2012 (pre-debate) and the margin of error associated with a sample of this type is + 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. KEY FINDINGS
Republican candidate Ricky Gill has overtaken Democratic Congressman Jerry McNerney

and holds a +1 point lead on the ballot test for Congress. Forty-six percent (46%) of district voters indicate they would vote for Gill, while only forty-five percent (45%) indicate they would vote for McNerney. There are nine percent (9%) of voters in the district that are undecided on the ballot test.
Gill has made significant gains among DTS and Independent voters in the district, and now

leads McNerney by over twenty points. Gills ballot strength among Republicans is approaching ninety percent, and he is also taking twelve percent (12%) of the vote among registered Democrats away from McNerney.
Despite a 16 point overall name ID gap, Gill now has dramatically better image ratings

among district voters than McNerney does. Both candidates have favorable ratings of approximately thirty-five percent, but McNerneys unfavorable ratings are twice as high as Gills unfavorable rating.

 McNerneys image ratings among district voters have eroded to the point where his

unfavorable rating is as high as his favorable rating. While there are 34% of district voters that have a favorable impression of McNerney, there are an equal 34% who have an unfavorable impression of him.
McNerneys unfavorable ratings are now higher than his favorable ratings among voters in

the San Joaquin County portion of the district, the new portion of the district, all men, all senior citizens, and Hispanic/Latino voters.

###