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Tim Malloy, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute (203) 535-6203 Rubenstein Associates, Inc.

, Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 16, 2012

ROMNEY CLOSING IN ON OBAMA IN PENNSYLVANIA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; CASEY-SMITH SENATE RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Gov. Mitt Romney has narrowed a 12-point gap with President Barack Obama and now trails the president 50 46 percent among Pennsylvania likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 54 42 percent Obama lead in a September 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In todays survey, men back Romney 54 43 percent, compared to a 49 48 percent split September 26. Women back Obama 57 39 percent, little changed from last month. White voters back Romney 53 43 percent while black voters back Obama 97 1 percent. White Catholic voters go Republican 56 43 percent. Voters with college degrees back the president 54 43 percent while voters without degrees are divided with 49 percent for Obama and 47 percent for Romney. Only 7 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say they might change their mind in the next 21 days. Gov. Mitt Romney is coming on strong in the Keystone State, especially among white Catholics, said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Pennsylvania voters say Vice President Joseph Biden, a native son and a Catholic, won the debate and is more qualified than U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan to be president. But that doesnt seem to be lifting the top of the ticket. (For a downloadable video of Quinnipiac Polling Institute Assistant Director Tim Malloy discussing the survey, click on www. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/pollinginstitute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1807) -more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/October 16, 2012 page 2 Pennsylvania likely voters say 42 37 percent that Pennsylvania-born Vice President Joseph Biden beat U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan in last weeks debate. Independent voters say 41 35 percent that Biden won. But more than 60 percent of voters say the debate does not affect their presidential vote. Biden is more qualified than Ryan to serve as president, voters say 50 42 percent. By a 52 45 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Romney gets a divided 46 44 percent favorability rating. U.S. Senate Race Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Casey Jr. has 48 percent in his reelection bid to 45 percent for businessman Tom Smith, his Republican challenger. In this Senate race, men go Republican 53 42 percent, while women back the Democrat 53 38 percent. Independent voters are divided 44 44 percent. Tom Smiths relentless TV ad barrage has lifted him out of the coal mine to give Sen. Robert Casey a run for his money, Malloy said. Casey had a 55 37 percent lead in Quinnipiac Universitys August 1 survey. Now this race is too close to call. Pennsylvania voters disapprove of the job Gov. Tom Corbett is doing by a narrow 42 38 percent, compared to a 47 36 percent disapproval September 26. From October 12 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,519 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 50% 46 1 3 5% 93 1 89% 9 2 50% 43 3 3 43% 54 2 2 57% 39 4 43% 53 1 2 97% 1 3

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 49% 49 2 1 41% 55 1 3 35% 61 1 3 43% 56 1 37% 60 2 1 50% 46 1 3 26% 70 1 4 44% 54 1

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 54% 43 1 1 49% 47 1 3

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 58% 37 1 4 49% 46 2 4 51% 48 1 49% 48 2 1

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 59% 36 3 1 50% 47 1 2 48% 48 3

TREND: If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 50 46 1 3 54 42 1 2 53 42 1 4

1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS....... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1 Tot Obama Romney Mind made up Might change DK/NA 92% 7 1 91% 8 1 93% 6 -

TREND: (If candidate chosen) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CANDIDATE CHOSEN...... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Mind made up Might change DK/NA 92 7 1 92 7 1 87 12 1

2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 46% 44 7 2 90% 6 4 10% 78 9 4 45% 45 8 3 53% 39 7 1 40% 50 7 4 53% 39 6 2 86 10 3

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 50% 44 4 2 54% 36 7 3 62% 28 8 2 55% 38 5 1 58% 34 7 1 47% 44 6 3 67% 22 8 3 55% 38 6 1

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 47% 47 5 2 46% 43 8 3

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 36% 51 9 4 44% 46 7 3 47% 46 5 1 51% 42 5 1

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 40% 52 7 45% 45 8 3 48% 42 7 3

TREND: Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 46 44 7 2 41 50 8 2 39 47 11 3

3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 52% 45 1 1 8% 89 1 1 88% 9 2 1 54% 44 1 1 45% 54 1 1 59% 37 2 2 46% 52 1 1 98% 2

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 50% 47 1 1 44% 54 1 1 37% 60 1 2 45% 52 1 1 40% 59 1 52% 44 2 2 28% 70 2 47% 51 1 1

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 56% 42 1 1 51% 46 2 1

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 58% 39 2 2 52% 46 1 1 53% 44 2 1 51% 48 1 -

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 64% 34 2 51% 46 2 1 49% 48 1 2

TREND: Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED 52 45 1 1 54 43 2 2 53 42 2 3

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Tom Smith the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey Jr. or Smith? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Casey Jr. Smith SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 48% 45 7 10% 88 2 83% 12 5 44% 44 11 42% 53 5 53% 38 9 43% 51 6 86% 5 9

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Casey Jr. Smith SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 49% 46 6 40% 53 7 35% 60 6 45% 49 6 37% 58 4 49% 43 9 25% 70 5 47% 48 5

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Casey Jr. Smith SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 52% 41 7 46% 47 7

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 56% 37 7 50% 43 7 46% 49 5 47% 47 6

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 50% 37 12 49% 44 6 47% 48 5

TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Tom Smith the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Casey Jr. or Smith? (Table includes leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Casey Jr. Smith SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA 48 45 7 49 43 8 55 37 8

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve Disapprove DK/NA 38% 42 20 66% 21 13 17% 57 26 35% 47 18 48% 40 12 29% 44 27 42% 41 16 12% 50 39

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve Disapprove DK/NA 39% 46 15 44% 39 17 46% 37 17 47% 39 14 52% 38 11 33% 45 22 49% 32 18 44% 42 14

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Approve Disapprove DK/NA 36% 48 16 39% 40 21

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 33% 43 24 35% 42 23 43% 42 15 40% 47 13

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 30% 38 31 41% 41 18 39% 44 17

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tom Corbett is handling his job as Governor? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 38 42 20 36 47 17 38 45 17

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Approve Disapprove DK/NA 50% 48 2 7% 91 2 87% 10 3 50% 48 2 44% 55 1 56% 41 3 43% 55 2 97% 2 1

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Approve Disapprove DK/NA 47% 51 2 40% 57 2 34% 63 2 43% 55 3 38% 61 1 48% 49 3 27% 71 2 43% 54 3

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Approve Disapprove DK/NA 53% 46 2 48% 49 3

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 56% 40 3 52% 47 1 48% 48 4 47% 53 1

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 61% 37 1 47% 49 3 48% 50 2

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 16 Sep 26 Aug 01 2012 2012 2012 Approve Disapprove DK/NA 50 48 2 51 45 3 49 46 4

7. Which candidate do you think did the best job, or won, Thursday night's vice presidential debate Paul Ryan or Joe Biden? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Ryan Biden TIE (VOL) DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) DK/NA 37% 42 5 11 4 74% 7 5 8 5 7% 73 4 13 3 35% 41 6 13 5 42% 40 6 7 5 34% 45 4 14 4 43% 37 5 10 5 2% 79 2 15 3

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Ryan Biden TIE (VOL) DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) DK/NA 38% 40 7 11 3 45% 35 5 10 5 50% 29 4 10 6 46% 37 6 8 3 46% 35 6 8 5 40% 39 5 13 4 58% 23 4 9 6 43% 38 6 9 3

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Ryan Biden TIE (VOL) DIDN'T WATCH(VOL) DK/NA 35% 45 6 11 3 39% 41 4 11 5

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 34% 49 4 9 4 37% 44 3 11 5 39% 39 7 12 3 37% 42 7 8 5

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 28% 50 2 13 6 37% 41 6 13 3 41% 42 5 8 5

8. Did you watch or listen to the vice presidential debate between Paul Ryan and Joe Biden, or not? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes No DK/NA 81% 18 1 85% 15 77% 21 2 81% 18 1 84% 15 1 77% 21 1 82% 17 1 69% 27 4

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Yes No DK/NA 85% 15 81% 18 1 82% 18 1 86% 14 85% 15 80% 19 1 82% 17 1 84% 15 1

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Yes No DK/NA 86% 14 78% 20 1

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 80% 20 77% 21 2 82% 17 1 88% 12 1

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 74% 24 1 80% 18 2 83% 16 1

9. Did the vice presidential debate make you more likely to vote for - Barack Obama, less likely, or did it have no effect on your vote choice? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely Less likely Had no effect DK/NA 17% 18 62 3 2% 36 59 3 35% 3 59 3 12% 18 69 1 15% 19 65 2 20% 17 60 3 14% 20 63 3 39% 57 4

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No More likely Less likely Had no effect DK/NA 12% 18 70 15% 22 59 4 11% 24 62 3 14% 22 63 1 12% 21 66 2 16% 20 60 4 9% 31 55 5 13% 20 65 1

COLLEGE DEG Yes No More likely Less likely Had no effect DK/NA 14% 16 69 19% 18 59 4

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 22% 13 62 3 17% 21 59 3 16% 17 66 1 13% 16 70 -

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 15% 11 73 1 16% 16 65 3 20% 21 56 3

10. Did the vice presidential debate make you more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, less likely, or did it have no effect on your vote choice? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk More likely Less likely Had no effect DK/NA 19% 15 63 3 40% 2 56 2 4% 29 64 3 17% 13 68 2 20% 14 64 2 19% 17 61 3 22% 13 62 3 3% 29 64 4

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No More likely Less likely Had no effect DK/NA 20% 11 68 23% 14 59 4 25% 11 61 3 25% 12 63 1 22% 12 64 2 22% 14 60 4 30% 9 57 3 22% 12 65 1

COLLEGE DEG Yes No More likely Less likely Had no effect DK/NA 18% 13 69 20% 17 60 4

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 16% 22 57 5 20% 13 64 3 21% 14 65 1 16% 14 70 -

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 13% 16 69 3 18% 15 64 3 21% 16 60 3

11. Who do you think is best qualified to serve as president if it becomes necessary Paul Ryan or Joe Biden? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Ryan Biden DK/NA 42% 50 8 86% 8 5 9% 84 7 38% 53 10 49% 44 6 36% 55 9 48% 44 8 90 9

WHITE.............................................. COLLEGE DEG BornAgnEv Yes No Prot Cath Men Wom Yes No Ryan Biden DK/NA 45% 49 5 50% 41 9 57% 34 9 50% 45 5 55% 39 6 41% 49 9 65% 28 8 48% 45 7

COLLEGE DEG Yes No Ryan Biden DK/NA 41% 55 5 43% 47 9

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 37% 56 7 39% 49 12 45% 50 5 43% 51 6

AGE IN YRS....... 18-34 35-54 55+ 34% 56 10 43% 49 8 45% 48 7

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