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Interested Parties Pete Brodnitz, BSG Recent polling in Floridas 26th Congressional District October 15, 2012

Democrat Joe Garcia leads incumbent Republican David Rivera by 11% in our mid October poll in Floridas 26th Congressional District. Questions about Congressman Riveras ethics are taking a significant toll on his re-election chances. Garcia holds a double digit lead The poll, taken in English and Spanish from October 9-11, shows Joe Garcia leading David Rivera 46% to 35%. Two non-partisan candidates receive 3% combined. A combined 15% are undecided or refused to say who they have voted for. Garcia leads among key subgroups: both women (+12%) and men (+10%), registered Democrats (+65%) and Independents (+45%), and both college graduates (+15%) and those without a college degree (+7%). [IF NOT YET VOTED] If the November election for Congress were held today and the candidates were (names rotated) for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] Which candidate do you lean toward? [IF ALREADY VOTED] In the election for Congress, for whom did you vote?
All

Difference
Joe Garcia, a Democrat David Rivera, a Republican Angel Fernandez, no party affiliation Jose Peixoto, no party affiliation Refused Dont Know More voters side with Garcia than Rivera on key attributes

+11
46 35 2 1 1 14

Garcia has a significant advantage on several important attributes. By 14% (43% to 29%), more voters say Garcia will stand up and fight for people like them than think that about Rivera. Garcia also has an 8% advantage on the economy, a key issue this year. [INSERT STATEMENT] Does this apply more to Joe Garcia or David Rivera?
Garcia Rivera Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) Dont Know (vol.)

Difference

Will stand up and fight for people like you Will strengthen Floridas economy and create jobs Riveras ethics violations are breaking through

43 38

29 30

2 3

5 6

21 23

+14 +8

Voters are hearing about Riveras ethical problems and pulling away from him. Among those who had heard or read about Rivera recently, the majority say what they heard has made them less favorable toward Rivera (net -16%). The opposite is true for Garcia: the majority have heard positive coverage (net +23%).

FL CD-26 October 2012 Poll

[Among those who said they had heard or read something recently about the candidate]
Does this make you much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, somewhat less favorable, much less favorable toward Joe Garcia/David Rivera?
Garcia

Rivera

Difference
Total More Favorable Much More Favorable Somewhat More Favorable Total Less Favorable Somewhat Less Favorable Much Less Favorable Dont know

+23
53 18 35 30 7 23 17

-16
35 25 10 51 17 34 14

When asked unprompted what they have heard or read about Rivera, 38% mention something about the ethics charges swirling around Rivera. Specifically, 20% say that he is dishonest or corrupt, 10% say that he is under investigation by the FBI, 4% mention that he has been involved with questionable campaign contributions, and 4% say that he paid a candidate to run against Garcia. The ethical issues are becoming well known and threatening Riveras re-election. Riveras corruption has helped give Garcia an 11% lead, despite the fact that Republicans have a registration advantage and President Obama only leads Romney by 1%.

[Among those who said they had heard or read something recently about David Rivera]
What did you hear or read about David Rivera? (OPEN END) He is dishonest/corrupt Under investigation by the FBI Questionable campaign contributions Paid candidates to run against Garcia Negative ads Running for office Commercials/ads Family man Done a good job Good man/honest Republican General negative (bad things, etc.) Other Don't know/refused
All

20 10 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 5 26 19

The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 400 interviews in Floridas 26th Congressional District with likely general election voters October 9-11, 2012. Respondents were given the option of completing the poll in either English or Spanish. The margin of error for overall results is 4.88%. BSGs clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Congresswoman Mazie Hirono (HI), Congressman Adam Smith (WA), and Congressman Tim Walz (MN).

FL CD-26 October 2012 Poll