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Hindustan Zinc
Performance Highlights
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 8.8 (1.2) (520)bp 12.8 1QFY13 2,713 1,429 52.7 1,581 % chg (qoq) 4.0 1.3 (138)bp (2.4)
`135 `145
12 months
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adjusted PAT
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Base Metals 56,957 7,745 1.1 150/107 97,239 2 18,792 5,719 HZNC.BO HZ@IN
Hindustan Zinc (HZL)s 2QFY2013 bottom-line was ahead of our expectations due to higher-than-expected other income and lower-than-expected tax rate. We recommend Accumulate on the stock. Strong growth in lead and silver volumes: For 2QFY2013, HZLs net sales increased by 8.8% yoy to `2,822cr (above our estimate of `2,733cr) mainly on account of a higher lead and silver production. Lead production volumes grew by 60.0% yoy to 27kt and silver production volumes grew 86.0% yoy to 92kt due to higher production from Sindesur Khurd mine and new Dariba lead and silver capacities. Higher cost of production dents EBITDA margin: The cost of production of zinc increased by 20.4% yoy to `46,750/tonne during the quarter. Hence, HZLs EBITDA margin contracted by 520bp yoy to 51.3% and the EBITDA decreased by 1.2% yoy to `1,447cr. Other income was higher than our estimate (+39.6% yoy to `540cr) while tax rate was lower than our estimate (14.9% in 2QFY2013 compared to19.5% in 2QFY2012). Hence, the adjusted net profit was higher than our estimate of `1,347cr and grew by 12.8% yoy to `1,544cr. Expansion projects remain on track: HZLs underground mine development work at the Rampura Agucha mine and greenfield Kayar mine development are on schedule with commercial production expected from FY2014. Outlook and valuation: With a cash-rich balance sheet and strong production growth of lead and silver over FY2012-14, we maintain our positive stance on HZL. In spite of an expectation of a decline in realizations, increased volumes of lead and silver are expected to drive earnings growth to 14.3% in FY2013. HZL is currently trading at inexpensive valuations of 5.2x and 3.9x FY2013E and FY2014E EPS, respectively. Valuing the stock at 4.0x FY2014 EV/EBITDA, we recommend an Accumulate view on HZL with a target price of `145. Key financials (standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 64.9 1.9 1.4 31.8
3m 9.4 14.1
FY2011 10,039 25.2 4,922 21.8 11.6 55.9 11.6 2.5 24.1 24.2 4.2 7.5
FY2012 11,405 13.6 5,569 13.2 13.1 53.2 10.3 2.1 22.4 21.2 3.4 6.4
FY2013E 12,446 9.1 6,315 13.4 14.9 52.3 9.0 1.8 21.4 19.4 2.7 5.2
FY2014E 13,538 8.8 6,914 9.5 16.4 52.9 8.2 1.5 19.7 18.1 2.1 3.9
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 Bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay Rachh
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6841 Vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 2,822 953 33.8 203 7.2 155 5.5 108 3.8 1,418 50.2 43.2 1,447 51.3 (2) 175 540 1,815 64.3 271 14.9 1,544 54.7 1,544
2QFY12 2,593 747 28.8 215 8.3 129 5.0 81 3.1 1,172 45.2 43.3 1,465 56.5 12 146 387 24 1,670 64.4 325 19.5 1,345 51.8 1,369
yoy % 8.8 27.6 (5.5) 19.9 32.4 21.0 (0.4) (1.2) 20.0 39.6 8.6 (16.9) 14.8 12.8
1QFY13 2,713 863 31.8 204 7.5 149 5.5 103 3.8 1,319 48.6 35.0 1,429 52.7 13 173 574 1,817 67.0 235 13.0 1,581 58.3 1,581
qoq % 4.0 10.5 (0.8) 3.7 4.5 7.5 23.2 1.3 (116.2) 0.7 (6.0) (0.1) 15.0 (2.4) (2.4)
1HFY13 5,535 1,816 32.8 407 7.4 304 5.5 210 3.8 2,737 49.5 78 2,876 52.0 11 348 1,114 3,631 65.6 506 13.9 3,125 56.5 3,125
1HFY12 5,415 1,598 29.5 408 7.5 256 4.7 192 3.6 2,455 45.3 69.1 3,029 55.9 16 281 768 28 3,473 64.1 633 18.2 2,840 52.4 2,868
yoy % 2.2 13.6 (0.2) 18.5 9.4 11.5 13.3 (5.1) (31.7) 23.9 45.0 4.6 (20.1) 10.1 9.0
2,713 2,822
(` cr)
50 30 10 (10) 1QFY11 3QFY11 1QFY12 Net sales 3QFY12 1QFY13 yoy growth - RHS
1,969 1,507 1,022 1,125 1,592 1,659 1,465 1,402 1,429 1,447
60
(` cr)
1,500
(%)
40
40 30 20 10 0
20
0 1QFY11 3QFY11 1QFY12 EBITDA (LHS) 3QFY12 1QFY13 EBITDA margins (RHS)
0 1QFY11 3QFY11 1QFY12 Net profit (LHS) 3QFY12 1QFY13 Net profit margins (RHS)
Expansion projects
HZLs underground mine development work at Rampura Agucha mine and greenfield Kayar mine development are on schedule with commercial production expected from FY2014. At its Kayar mine, a milestone of development ore production was achieved during the quarter.
(%)
70
Investment arguments
Mining in Kayar could be the next phase of growth
Since the expansion at Sindesur Khurd is complete, HZL has commenced work at its underground Kayar mine, which has 11mn tonne of high-grade reserves (10-12% zinc content). The company aims to mine 1mn tonne per year, once it is fully operational. Moreover, given the cash-rich balance sheet, HZL is actively exploring greenfield projects through 20 prospecting licenses and four mining lease projects across different states.
Angel forecast
14.9 16.4
Variation (%)
4.7 6.0
(` cr)
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
2x
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
4x
6x
8x
10x
Oct-12
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
(`)
100 50 0
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
2.0x
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
6.0x
10.0x
14.0x
0.5x
2.0x
3.5x
5.0x
P/E (x) 8.9 14.6 6.2 9.0 7.3 12.2 6.0 8.2
(%) 7
10.7
19.7
18.1
Oct-12
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Company background
Incorporated in 1966, HZL, a subsidiary of Sterlite Industries, is a vertically integrated company with its mining and smelting operations located mainly in Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh. HZLs current zinc reserves stand at 34.1mn tonne with a production capacity of 1.1mn tonne of zinc p.a., indicating a mine life of 31 years. HZL currently operates two underground mines, namely Sindesar Khurd and Rajpura Dariba, and one open cast mine, ie the Rampura Agucha Mine.
FY2009 5,680 5,680 (27.9) 2,946 1,906 364 365 311 2,734 (49.2) 48.1 285 2,449 (52.5) 43.1 22 931 27.7 3,358 (43.9) 3,358 631 18.8 2,728 2,728 (38.0) 48.0 6.5 6.5 (38.0)
FY2010 8,017 122.0 8,139 43.3 3,347 1,961 613 457 316 4,792 75.3 58.3 334 4,458 82.0 55.6 44 600 12.0 5,014 49.3 5,014 973 19.4 4,041 4,041 48.2 49.7 9.6 9.6 48.2
FY2011 10,039 0 10,039 23.3 4,431 14 803 511 3,104 5,608 17.0 55.9 475 5,133 15.1 51.1 18 866 14.5 5,981 19.3 21.2 5,960 1,059 17.8 4,900 4,922 21.8 49.0 11.6 11.6 21.3
FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E 11,405 0 11,405 13.6 5,336 312 838 535 3,651 6,069 8.2 53.2 611 5,459 6.3 47.9 14 1,543 22.1 6,988 16.8 43.1 6,945 1,419 20.4 5,526 5,569 13.2 48.8 13.1 13.1 12.8 12,446 140 12,586 10.4 5,943 249 902 610 3,709 6,643 9.5 52.3 709 5,934 8.7 47.7 31 1,991 25.2 7,894 13.0 7,894 1,579 20.0 6,315 6,315 13.4 50.2 14.9 14.9 14.3 13,538 154 13,692 8.8 6,376 257 1,001 650 3,967 7,316 10.1 52.9 758 6,558 10.5 48.4 14 2,098 24.3 8,643 9.5 8,643 1,729 20.0 6,914 6,914 9.5 50.5 16.4 16.4 9.5
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Other long term liabilities Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Investments Long term loans and adv. Other Non-current assets Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Total Assets
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E 423 13,935 14,358 9 559 14,925 5,856 1,751 4,105 1,108 6,929 423 17,701 18,124 60 711 18,896 8,241 2,077 6,164 1,113 10,949 845 21,688 22,533 0.4 945 24 23,502 9,879 2,624 7,254 595 9,335 617 130 3,784 2,719 313 751 1,001 2,783 14,925 1,995 928 457 611 1,326 669 18,896 7,123 5,633 286 1,204 1,551 5,572 23,502 845 26,036 26,881 0.4 1,109 17 28,008 11,658 3,145 8,513 445 12,695 628 164 6,979 5,255 270 1,454 1,415 5,564 28,008 845 31,363 32,208 0.4 1,109 17 33,334 13,858 3,855 10,003 145 12,695 628 164 11,948 10,667 270 1,012 2,249 9,700 33,334
FY2014E 845 37,289 38,134 0.4 1,109 17 39,260 14,858 4,613 10,245 95 12,695 628 164 17,730 16,394 270 1,066 2,296 15,434 39,260
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with previous year numbers
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 3,358 286 296 (777) 521 2,642 5,014 335 173 (563) 785 4,173 5,960 475 (239) (835) 1,116 4,244 1,870 28
FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E 6,945 611 (61) (1,501) 1,502 4,492 (1,668) (2,455) 38 624 (3,461) 1,228 14 (1,242) (210) 277 29 7,894 709 1,275 1,579 8,300 (1,900) (1,900) 989 (989) 5,411 29 10,667 8,643 758 (7) 1,729 7,666 (950) (950) 989 (989) 5,727 10,667 16,394
(1,374) (2,247) (1,446) (443) (3,922) 71 (1,602) 8 124 22 (137) (844) 3,563 2,719 (96)
2,288 (4,082) 43 198 33 (187) 8 2,719 928 (60) 296 8 (363) 250 28 277
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
10
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence some ratios may not be comparable with previous year ratios
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Hindustan Zinc No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
12