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O N T H L Y

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O M P I L A T I O N

Volume 8, Issue 9 October 2012

Down to the Wire: When Voters Made Their Decisions, 19842008

The data below come from the exit polls of voters leaving the polls. While the question wording has changed over time, the surveys reveal that large majorities of voters make up their minds before the last month of the campaign. There is no clear pattern in terms of candidate support for those who make up their mind at the very end of the campaign.
Q: When did you decide who to vote for? Time of vote (percent of electorate) 2008 Today (4%) Last three days (3) Last week (3) Last month (15) Before that (74) 2004 Today (5%) Last three days (4) Last week (2) Last Month (10) Before that (78) 2000 Last three days (11%) Last week (6) Last month (13) Before that (69) 1996 Since last weekend (11%) After the debates (18) Before then (71) 1988 Today (7%) Yesterday (3) Over the weekend (3) Last week (5) Before last week (82) Vote for Obama 50% 47 48 54 52 Bush 45% 42 51 44 53 Bush 45% 44 45 50 Clinton 35% 49 51 Bush 39% 40 34 38 53 46
(continued on the next page)

McCain 45% 52 50 43 47 Kerry 52% 55 48 54 46 Gore 48% 48 48 48 Dole 40% 36 43 Dukakis 58% 58 62 61 Perot 23% 13 5

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1984 Today (5%) Yesterday (2) Over the weekend (2) Last week (4) Before last week (88)

Reagan 38% 42 40 45 60

Mondale 61% 57 60 55 40

Source: National Election Pool: 2008, 2004; Voter News Service: 2000; LA Times: 1996; ABC News, 1988, 1984. 1992 data unavailable.

The polls below show greater strength of support for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney than for other candidates going back to 1992. And the number of potential switchers is low compared to the elections in the early 1990s.
Q: Do you support ______ . . . ? (Question asked of supporters of each candidate.) Support strongly Romney Obama 2012 McCain 21 Bush 32 Bush 25 Dole 17 Bush, Sr. 20
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, October surveys.

31%

32% 35

Obama 2008 Kerry 2004 Gore 2000 Clinton 1996 Clinton 1992 26 25 22 28

Q: Do you think there is a . . . ? Non-Romney supporters who say there is a chance they would support Romney 8% McCain 7 Bush 5 Bush 10 Dole 11 Bush, Sr. 11
Note: Sample is registered voters. Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, October surveys.

2012 2008

Non-Obama supporters who say there is a chance they would support Obama 5% Obama 7 Kerry 6 Gore 9 Clinton 10 Clinton 11

2004 2000 1996 1992

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The Past is Prologue

In the next several pages of this issue, we look at how various groups in the electorate have voted over time. We begin with men and women. Starting in 1980, a political gender gap emerged, and in each election since then, more women than men have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. In recent years, women have made up a larger share of the electorate than men. In 2008, they were 53 percent of all voters. Since 1984, married voters have been more Republican than voters who are not married. The category not married, which includes voters who are single, widowed, or divorced, has been more Democratic.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)

Men 70
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 36

62 50 48 36

57 37

62 41

57 41 38 21 43 44 42

53 44

55

49 48

10

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Women
61 50 48 37 45 47 44 56 49 50 45 37 17 7 2 54 43 54 43 51 48 56 43

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Married
38

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

62 42

57 40 41 20 9 44 46 44

53 42

57 47

51

NA

NA

NA

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Not Married 60
50 40 30 20 10 0

70

47

52

53

46

51 30 19

57 31 9

57 38

58 40

65

33

NA

NA

NA

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

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(continued from the previous page)

Racial and Ethnic Voting Over Time

In 1972, white voters were around 90 percent of the electorate. Analysts expect them to be around 75 percent on November 6. Whites have voted for Democratic and Republican candidates over time, but in 2004 and 2008, they voted decisively for the Republican. The black vote is one of the few monolithic votes in American politics. If the past is a guide, we can expect that around 90 percent of black voters will vote to re-elect President Obama. Hispanics are a growing share of the electorate. In recent elections, they have voted by substantial margins for the Democratic presidential candidate. In the past three elections, voters who are Asian (not shown here) have voted solidly for the Democratic candidates as well. They made up around 2 percent of all voters.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)

80 White 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

68 48 32 52 36 56 34

68

60 40 39 40 22 44 46 42

55 41

58 43

55

1972

1976

1980

1984
90

1988

1992

1996

2000
90

2004
88

2008
95

Black 100
80 60 40 20 0

82

83

85

86

83

84

18

16

11

12

10 7

12

11

1972

1976
76

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996
72

2000

2004

2008

Hispanic 80
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 63

59 35 24 6 33

62 37

69

61

67 56 43 31

67

30

25 14

31

21 6 2

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

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(continued from the previous page)

Party Loyalty, Moderates, and First-time Voters

Democrats and Republicans are loyal to their partys candidate. Those who identify as independents have sided with the winning candidate in each of the ten elections shown here except in 1976 and 2004. In 2008, they were 29 percent of all voters. In 2004, they were 26 percent. In 2008, ideological moderates were 46 percent of all voters, and they were 45 percent in 2004. In recent elections, they have voted for the Democratic candidate. In 1996, 2000, and 2004, slightly more than half of first-time voters voted for the Democratic candidate. In 2008, 68 percent of them did. This group is likely to be young.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage)

Independents
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 65 54 43 33 30 12 55 36 43 63 55 38

Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)

43 32 30

45 47 35 17 6

49 48

52

44

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008
60

Moderates 60
50 40 30 20 10 0

51 48

49 42

53 47

57 50 49 47 31 21 33

52 44

54 45

39

8 NA

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

First-time voters 80
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 61 47 38 51 46 32 22 11 NA NA NA 4 54 34 52 43 53 45

68

30

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

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(continued from the previous page)

Voters by Education
Voters who indicate that they have had some college training have an excellent track record of voting for the winner in presidential contests. (Two other groups that have good records of supporting the winner are independents and white Catholics.) Voters with less than a high school education and those with a post-graduate degree tend to support Democratic presidential candidates. In 2008, for example, 63 percent of those with less than a high school degree voted for Obama, as did 58 percent of those with a post-graduate degree. Voters with less than a high school diploma are a small slice of voters. In 2008, they made up 4 percent of all voters.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)

Not high school graduate

51 46 50 50 56 43 28 18 2 54 59

59 50 49 39 28 11 1

63

35

1980

1984
60

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

High school graduate

51 43 39

49 50

51 43 36 21 13 35

48 49

47

52

52

46

1980

1984
61 38

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Some college
55 35 57 42 41 37 21 8 10 3 48 40 45 51 46 54 51 47

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

College graduate
52 35 11 41

58 37

62 39 41 20 8 3 44 46 45 51 46 52 49 48

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Post-graduate

48 50

50 36 14

52 40 5

52 44 3

55 44

58 40

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Voters by Religion
Protestants tend to vote for Republican presidential candidates, while Jews vote in overwhelming numbers for Democratic candidates and Catholics tend to go back and forth. In 2008, Protestants were 54 percent of voters, Jews 2 percent, and Catholics 27 percent. White Catholics, who usually vote for the winner, split 52 percent for John McCain in 2008 and 47 percent for Barack Obama.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage)

Protestant
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 70 55 44 28 35 32 6 59 38 67 61 45 36

Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)

58 50 41 18 8 1 40 40

59 45

54

1972
54 44

1976
54 44

1980

1984
54 45

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008
54 45

Catholic 60
50 40 30 20 10 0

50 42

47

52 44 35 20

53 37

49 47

47

52

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

White Catholic Jewish

42 57

52 46

40 51 7

42 57

43 56

42 37 22
80

48 41 10

46 51 2

43 56

47 52

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

78

79

64

64 45 34 34

67

74

78

64

39 15

31

35 11 9 16 3 19 1 25 21

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Michael Barone, Resident Fellow; Henry Olsen, Vice President. Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Intern: Patrick Horan.

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Other Groups: Union Households, Gays, Veterans, and Gun Owners

In 1972, union households voted narrowly for Richard Nixon, but these households have voted for Democratic candidates ever since. In 2008, they were about a quarter of the electorate. In the past four elections, 59 percent of union households have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. People who indicate that they are gay, lesbian, or bisexual in the exit polls vote in very strong proportions for Democratic presidential candidates. In 2008, these voters were 4 percent of all voters. Veterans were 15 percent of the electorate in 2008. Fifty-four percent of them voted for John McCain and 44 percent for Barack Obama. In 2004, they voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry, by 57 to 41 percent. Around four in ten voters say they have a gun in their home. This is a very Republican vote. In the past three elections, six in ten of them have voted for the GOP candidate.
Vote for Democratic presidential candidate (percentage)

Union household
59 47 50 39 49 53 44 46

Vote for Republican presidential candidate (percentage) Vote for Independent presidential candidate (percentage)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

57 42

55

59

59

59 40

59

37 24 21 30

39

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992
77

1996

2000

2004

2008

Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual

72

66

71

70

22 14 14 7

25 4

23

27

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

Veteran
57 41 44 54

Gun owner
61 36 36 62 37 61

2004

2008

2000

2004

2008

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What Americans Think About Voter ID Laws

According to the National Council of State Legislatures, 19 states have no photo ID requirement for voting, and another 19 have state-specific lists of acceptable IDs, including a non-photo form. This year alone, voter ID legislation was introduced in 32 states, and new laws were passed in Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Alabama, South Carolina, and Texas are all at various stages of attaining pre-clearance of new voter ID laws under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. Some of the new laws have met with some controversy, but as the polls below show, the idea of voter ID requirements meets with general approval from most voters.
Q: As you may know, there have been efforts in some states to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say this is needed to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to vote. Other people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minority voters. What do you think, do you . . . ? Natl. Support efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote Oppose
Source: CBS News/New York Times, September 2012.

Dem. 70% 28 48% 50

Rep. 94% 6

Ind. 76% 21

Q: In your opinion . . .? Natl. Voters should be required to show a state-issued photo ID at the polls before being allowed to cast a ballot Should not be required
Source: TIPP/Investors Business Daily, June 2012.

Dem.

Rep.

Ind.

67% 28

49% 45

90% 8

69% 27

Q: Overall, which concerns you more . . . ? Natl. The potential for voter fraud concerns you more Denying eligible voters the right to vote 49% 44 White 52% 40

Nonwhite 42% 52

Note: Thirty-two percent of Democrats, 49 percent of independents, and 67 percent of Republicans said voter fraud concerned them more. Source: Washington Post, July 2012.

Q: Should . . . ? Natl. Voters should be required to show official photo ID before they vote Should not 77% 20

My states voter ID requirement Strict Photo ID ID, photo No voter photo ID less strict not required ID 85% 14 80% 18 84% 14 70% 26

Note: Asked of registered voters. Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, September 2012.

Q: Are you . . . ? Registered voters Confident you have the identification you might need to vote 98% Latino registered voters 97%

Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, September 2012, Pew Hispanic Center, September 2012.

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What Pennsylvanians Think

The controversy about voter IDs has been particularly intense in Pennsylvania. The state Supreme Court of Pennsylvania has now postponed any changes to the law until 2014. The following questions, taken after the voter ID law was passed, but before the state Supreme Court decision, show most people there are aware of the states photo ID law and support it. Ninety-nine percent of likely voters there say they have such identification.
Q: Is the following statement true or false . . . ? Pa. True, the state of Pennsylvania requires voters to show state-approved photo identification when they vote False
Note: Asked of registered voters. Source: Franklin & Marshall University, September 2012.

87% 10

Q: Do you . . . ? Pa. Support Pennsylvanias new voter ID law Oppose

Note: Asked of likely Pennsylvania voters. Source: Philadelphia Inquirer, September 2012.

64% 32

White 69% 29

Black 31% 65

Q: As you may know, there have been efforts in some states to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say this is needed to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to vote. Other people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minorities. What do you think, do you . . . ? Pa. Support requiring voters to show a photo identification card to vote Oppose 62% 35 Dem. 37% 60 Rep. 92% 8 Ind. 66% 33

Note: Asked of likely Pennsylvania voters. Source: Quinnipiac University, CBS News, New York Times, September 2012.

Q: Do you . . . ? Pa. Currently have a government-issued photo identification such as a drivers license or U.S. passport Do not

99% 1

Note: Asked of likely Pennsylvania voters. Source: Quinnipiac University, CBS News, New York Times, September 2012.

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AEIs Unconventional Indicators

If hemlines go up as we move into an election year, or if its a good year for Bordeaux wines, or if the National League wins the World Series, the Democratic candidate will likely win. When hemlines fall or stay the same, or the Bordeaux vintage is poor, or the American League wins, its good for the GOP. If the Dow Jones monthly average is higher in October than January of the election year or if the Redskins win their home game closest to Election Day, the incumbent party is expected to win. Since 1956, Weekly Reader has polled kids grades 112 on presidential candidates. Each presidential cycle, the students have correctly predicted the winner, with the exception of 1992.
Year 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Hemlines No Change No Change Up Up Up Down Up Up Down Down Down Unchanged Down Up Down Bordeaux Futures Poor Poor Good Poor Poor Good Poor Poor Good Poor Good Good Poor Good 9 / 15 World Series Cleveland (AL) NY Yankees (AL) NY Yankees (AL) Pittsburgh (NL) St. Louis (NL) Detroit (AL) Oakland (AL) Cincinnati (NL) Philadelphia (NL) Detroit (AL) Los Angeles (NL) Toronto (AL) NY Yankees (AL) NY Yankees (AL) Boston (AL) Philadelphia (NL) 11 / 16 Stock Market Up Down Up Down Up Up Up Up Up Down Up Up Up Down Down Down 9 / 16 Redskins Game Win Loss Win Loss Win Loss Win Loss Loss Win Win Loss Win Loss Loss Loss 15 / 16 Weekly Reader* Rep. Dem. Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem. Rep. Rep. Rep. Rep. Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem. 13 / 14 Winning Party Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem. Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem. Rep. Rep. Rep. Dem. Dem. Rep. Rep. Dem.

Predictive record 9 / 15

Note: *In 2012, Scholastic News took over the Weekly Reader. Scholastic News has also conducted its own poll of students views since 1940. In their 2012 poll, released in mid-October, Obama won 51 percent of the students vote and Romney 45 percent. Sources for the calculations above are available from AEIs Political Corner.

A Final Word About The Polls

In a few days, pollsters will be releasing their final estimates for the presidential contest. For those of us who have been watching their activity, it has been an extraordinarily busy season. As the campaign got into full swing this year, we counted 26 national pollsters in the field on a regular basis, asking thousands of questions. In the final stretch, at least six pollsters were doing daily tracking of the presidential race. The pollsters have already asked questions about the 2016 presidential contest. This frenetic activity comes at a time when the challenges facing the pollsters face are formidable. In a meticulous report this year on the representatives of surveys, the Pew Research Center laid bare some of the challenges. They reported that the contact rate, the percentage of households in which the pollsters reached an adult was 90 percent 25 years ago. Today it is 62 percent. The cooperation rate (the percentage of households that yielded an interview) dropped from 43 to 14 percent over the same period. Pew reports that their response rate, the percentage of households sampled that yielded an interview is now 9 percent, down from 36 percent in 1997. Nine percent! Soon we will know how the pollsters performed in 2012. The national pollsters did well in 2008. The National Council for Public Polls (NCPP) examined 19 polls taken in the final days of the campaign and concluded they came very close to the outcome. A report from the Pew Research Center in June 2009 (using the NCPP data and estimates) found 8 of 17 national polls predicting the final margin in the [2008] presidential election [coming within] one percentage point and most of the others coming within three points, an outcome the researchers said matched or exceeded the polls accuracy in 2004. Pew reported further that polls using live telephone interviews and those with recorded voices did well. The bottom line according to Pew: The basic methodology of the telephone survey remains robust in the face of many challenges now facing this mode of data collection. But is this still true? Can they get it right? We will know the answer in a few days. The Editors

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