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TO: Michael Roth

FROM: John B Mockler

RE: Proposition 30- Revenue Effects on K-12 Schools Proposition 98 funding

As a volunteer I have accompanied Governor Brown to various meetings of Editorial


Boards to respond to technical questions regarding school funding under
Proposition 3. In addition I have answered questions regarding a comparison of K-
12 school funding should Proposition 38 go into effect rather than Proposition 30.

I have received numerous questions from various reporters and editors requesting
my basic analysis that led to my conclusion that Proposition 30 provides
substantially more funds for K-12 schools from 2011-12 to 2016-17 than
Proposition 38. Because of this Governor Brown asked that I provide you with my
information for your use.

To this memo I have attached two pages of data that calculate K-12 school funding
From 2011-12 through 2016-17 should Proposition 30 pass or fail. I used available
Department of Finance Revenue projections and data from official analysis of the
fiscal effects of Proposition 38 for K-12 schools. For the year 2016-17 year I
increased State General Fund revenues by 4% over 2015-16 because official
Department of Finance projections are not available after 2015-16. Calculations for
K-12 revenues are calculated at 89% of Proposition 98 changes. That is the percent
Division of Proposition 98 revenues between Community Colleges and K-12 Schools
that has been commonly used by the Governor and the Legislature over the life of
Proposition 98.

As you are aware Proposition 30 constitutionally appropriates all revenues gained


from the temporary taxes to Proposition 98 and to K-12 School Districts, County
Offices of Education, Charter Schools and Community Colleges. Neither the
Governor nor the Legislature has discretion over the use of these funds.

John Mockler: October 17, 2012 at 10:27 AM


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Making fiscal projections is a dangerous business. The predictability of the variables


effecting out year revenues, populations, and calculations are not particularly stable.
However the predictions that compare distributions are based on the same data and
thus the relative effects will not vary substantially.

Using the available data demonstrates the following:

- Proposition 30 provides $6.3 billion more revenues to schools from 2011-12


through 2016-17. After 2016-17 that a slight fiscal advantage in the range of
$1.5 to $2.5 billion accrues to Proposition 38.

- A defeat of Proposition 30 would result in loss of Proposition 98 K-12


Revenues in excess of $1.4 billion in 2011-12 and an additional $5.5 billion
In 2012-13. These losses continue and grow indefinitely.

Should you need additional information please let me know.

Attachments: (2) Proposition 30 K-12 Proposition 98 Revenue Comparisons

John Mockler: October 17, 2012 at 10:27 AM


Proposition 98
Proposition 30 Compared to Proposition 38 Funding for K-12 Schools: A Six Year Analysis

Total 6 Year
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Loss/ Gain
General Fund Revenues

If Proposition 30 Passes $83.0 Billion $92.2 Billion $95.2 Billion $105.4 Billion $111.9 Billion $116.4 Billion
If Proposition 30 Fails $79.9 Billion $86.6 Billion $88.9 Billion $98.2 Billion $104.2 Billion $108.4 Billion

K-12 Proposition 98 Funds

If Proposition 30 Passes $42.6 Billion $47.7 Billion $48.8 Billion $54.8 Billion $58.5 Billion $60.8 Billion
If Proposition 30 Fails $41.2 Billion $42.2 Billion $43.1 Billion $49.2 Billion $50.9 Billion $52.9 Billion

Loss if Proposition 30 Fails -$1.4 Billion -$5.5 Billion -$5.7 Billion -$5.6 Billion -$7.6 Billion -$7.9 Billion -$33.7 Billion

Proposition 38 Provides:

K-12 New Funds $0.00 $0.00 +$8.9 Billion +$6.0 Billion + $6.20 Billion +$6.3 Billion +$27.4 Billion

Net Loss/ Gain to K-12 Schools -$1.4 Billion -$5.5 Billion $3.2 Billion $0.4 Billion -$1.4 Billion -$1.6 Billion -$6.3 Billion

6 Year Proposition 38 Net Loss to K-12 Schools -$6.3 Billion

By John B. Mockler- September 24, 2012


Proposition 98 Funding Per Pupil
Proposition 30 Passes Compared to Proposition 30 Fails

2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017

K-12 Per Pupil Funding

If Proposition 30 Fails $ 6,910.00 $ 7,052.00 $ 7,178.00 $ 8,208.00 $ 8,501.00 $ 8,830.00

If Proportion 30 Passes $ 7,133.00 $ 7,955.00 $ 8,130.00 $ 9,126.00 $ 9,767.00 $ 10,148.00

Proposition 30 Average
Gain Per Student +$223 +$903 +$952 +$918 +$1,266 +$1,319

By John B. Mockler- September 24, 2012 2

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