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I have received numerous questions from various reporters and editors requesting
my basic analysis that led to my conclusion that Proposition 30 provides
substantially more funds for K-12 schools from 2011-12 to 2016-17 than
Proposition 38. Because of this Governor Brown asked that I provide you with my
information for your use.
To this memo I have attached two pages of data that calculate K-12 school funding
From 2011-12 through 2016-17 should Proposition 30 pass or fail. I used available
Department of Finance Revenue projections and data from official analysis of the
fiscal effects of Proposition 38 for K-12 schools. For the year 2016-17 year I
increased State General Fund revenues by 4% over 2015-16 because official
Department of Finance projections are not available after 2015-16. Calculations for
K-12 revenues are calculated at 89% of Proposition 98 changes. That is the percent
Division of Proposition 98 revenues between Community Colleges and K-12 Schools
that has been commonly used by the Governor and the Legislature over the life of
Proposition 98.
Total 6 Year
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Loss/ Gain
General Fund Revenues
If Proposition 30 Passes $83.0 Billion $92.2 Billion $95.2 Billion $105.4 Billion $111.9 Billion $116.4 Billion
If Proposition 30 Fails $79.9 Billion $86.6 Billion $88.9 Billion $98.2 Billion $104.2 Billion $108.4 Billion
If Proposition 30 Passes $42.6 Billion $47.7 Billion $48.8 Billion $54.8 Billion $58.5 Billion $60.8 Billion
If Proposition 30 Fails $41.2 Billion $42.2 Billion $43.1 Billion $49.2 Billion $50.9 Billion $52.9 Billion
Loss if Proposition 30 Fails -$1.4 Billion -$5.5 Billion -$5.7 Billion -$5.6 Billion -$7.6 Billion -$7.9 Billion -$33.7 Billion
Proposition 38 Provides:
K-12 New Funds $0.00 $0.00 +$8.9 Billion +$6.0 Billion + $6.20 Billion +$6.3 Billion +$27.4 Billion
Net Loss/ Gain to K-12 Schools -$1.4 Billion -$5.5 Billion $3.2 Billion $0.4 Billion -$1.4 Billion -$1.6 Billion -$6.3 Billion
Proposition 30 Average
Gain Per Student +$223 +$903 +$952 +$918 +$1,266 +$1,319