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VIRGINIA
A sample of 1,030 American Registered Voters (RVs) and 662 Likely Voters (LVs), age 18 and over in Virginia was interviewed online. Data below has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for RVs and 4.3 for LVs.
Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused
47% 46% 0% 2% 6%
Q2. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q2] Q3. Do you lean more towards were [ROTATE] Democratic candidate Tim Kaine or Republican candidate George Allen [END ROTATE]? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Tim Kaine, the Democrat George Allen, the Republican Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused
48% 46% 1% 1% 5%
Q4. Thinking about the elections in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q4] Q5. If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Democratic candidate Republican candidate Candidate from another political party Will not/do not plan to vote Dont know / Refused
45% 47% 2% 1% 5%
Q7. Have you already voted in the upcoming November general election by going to an early voting location, or by mailing in an early voting or absentee ballot, or not?
All Registered Voters (RV) Yes No
13% 87%
Democrats (RV)
14% 86%
Republicans (RV)
13% 87%
Independents (RV)
12% 88%
[IF Yes at Q7] Q8. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=155) Barack Obama and Joe Biden Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan Other All Registered Voters (RV)
54% 43% 3%
Democrats (RV)
Republicans (RV)
Independents (RV)
Q9. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
All Registered Voters (RV) Economy generally Unemployment / lack of jobs War / foreign conflicts Immigration Terrorism / terrorist attacks Healthcare Energy issues Morality Education Crime Environment Dont know Other, please specify:
53% 21% 1% 2% 1% 6% 2% 3% 5% % 1% % 5%
Democrats (RV)
50% 20% 2% 1% 1% 11% 3% 1% 7% % 2% 1% 3%
Republicans (RV)
58% 18% 1% 4% 1% 2% 2% 7% 1% % 0% % 6%
Independents (RV)
43% 36% 0% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 6% 0% 1% 1% 4%
PARTY ID, cont Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK
Iran
The US economy
Immigration
Social Security
Medicare
Taxes
Gay marriage
Education
Foreign policy
Womens rights
The environment
Israel
Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused
48% 44% *% 3% 5%
Q2. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q2] Q3. Do you lean more towards were [ROTATE] Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown or Republican candidate Josh Mandel [END ROTATE]? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Sherrod Brown, the Democrat Josh Mandel, the Republican Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused
50% 42% 1% 3% 4%
Q4. Thinking about the elections in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q4] Q5. If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Democratic candidate Republican candidate Candidate from another political party Will not/do not plan to vote Dont know / Refused
50% 41% 2% 1% 7%
[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q6. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote?
(n=923) Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind All Registered Voters (RV)
92% 8%
Democrats (RV)
47% 53%
Republicans (RV)
36% 64%
Independents (RV)
21% 79%
[IF Yes at Q7] Q8. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=406 for All RVs; 197 for Dem RVs; 168 for Repub RVs) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, Other All Registered Voters (RV)
58% 38% 4%
Democrats (RV)
90% 6% 4%
Republicans (RV)
10% 88% 2%
Independents (RV)
Base size too small to report data
Q9. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
All Registered Voters (RV) Economy generally Unemployment / lack of jobs War / foreign conflicts Immigration Terrorism / terrorist attacks Healthcare Energy issues Morality Education Crime Environment Dont know Other, please specify:
45% 22% 2% 2% 1% 9% 2% 6% 3% 2% 1% 1% 6%
Democrats (RV)
42% 21% 2% 1% % 14% 2% 2% 5% 3% 2% 2% 4%
Republicans (RV)
54% 18% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 11% 1% 1% 0% % 6%
Independents (RV)
37% 36% 6% 0% 0% 6% 0% 5% 2% % 1% % 8%
PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK
Iran
The US economy
Immigration
Social Security
Medicare
Taxes
Gay marriage
Education
Foreign policy
Womens rights
The environment
Israel
Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused
46% 46% *% 4% 4%
Q2. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Democrat Bill Nelson and Republican Connie Mack [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q2] Q3. Do you lean more towards were [ROTATE] Democratic candidate Bill Nelson or Republican candidate Connie Mack [END ROTATE]? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Bill Nelson, the Democrat Connie Mack, the Republican Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused
54% 39% 1% 3% 3%
Q4. Thinking about the elections in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q4] Q5. If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Democratic candidate Republican candidate Candidate from another political party Will not/do not plan to vote Dont know / Refused
47% 46% 1% 2% 4%
[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q6. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote?
(n=1,020) Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind All Registered Voters (RV)
94% 6%
Democrats (RV)
54% 46%
Republicans (RV)
51% 49%
Independents (RV)
58% 42%
[IF Yes at Q7] Q8. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=646 for All RVs; 264 for Dem RVs; 303 for Repub RVs) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, Other All Registered Voters (RV)
53% 43% 4%
Democrats (RV)
93% 5% 2%
Republicans (RV)
11% 86% 3%
Independents (RV)
Base size too small to report data
Q9. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
All Registered Voters (RV) Economy generally Unemployment / lack of jobs War / foreign conflicts Immigration Terrorism / terrorist attacks Healthcare Energy issues Morality Education Crime Environment Dont know Other, please specify:
45% 21% 3% 2% 2% 8% % 3% 4% 1% 2% 1% 7%
Democrats (RV)
39% 20% 4% 2% 4% 13% % 1% 6% 2% 4% % 5%
Republicans (RV)
55% 19% 1% 1% 2% 5% % 6% 2% % 1% 1% 7%
Independents (RV)
36% 23% 7% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 11% 1% 4% 1% 8%
PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK
10
Iran
The US economy
Immigration
Social Security
Medicare
Taxes
Gay marriage
1 1
Education
Foreign policy
Womens rights
The environment
Israel
1 2
Q1. If the 2012 Presidential Election were being held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans [END ROTATE], for whom would you vote?
All LIKELY Voters (LV) Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans Wouldnt vote None / Other Dont know / Refused
48% 48% *% 3% 2%
Q2. Thinking about the elections in 2012, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? [IF NONE/OTHER/DONT KNOW/REFUSED AT Q2] Q3. If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? All LIKELY Voters (LV) Democratic candidate Republican candidate Candidate from another political party Will not/do not plan to vote Dont know / Refused
48% 45% 4% *% 3%
[ASK IF OBAMA OR ROMNEY SELECTED IN Q1] Q4. Have you definitely decided to vote for [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q1], or is there a chance you might change your mind before you vote?
(n=918) Definitely will vote for candidate Could change my mind PARTY ID Strong Democrat Moderate Democrat Lean Democrat Lean Republican Moderate Republican Strong Republican Independent None of these DK All Registered Voters (RV)
94% 6%
13
Democrats (RV)
77% 23%
Republicans (RV)
63% 37%
Independents (RV)
70% 30%
[IF Yes at Q5] Q6. For whom did you vote for President?
(n=755 for All RVs; 364 for Dem RVs; 309 for Repub RVs) Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, Other All Registered Voters (RV)
56% 40% 4%
Democrats (RV)
96% 2% 2%
Republicans (RV)
5% 91% 4%
Independents (RV)
Base size too small to report data
Q7. In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
All Registered Voters (RV) Economy generally Unemployment / lack of jobs War / foreign conflicts Immigration Terrorism / terrorist attacks Healthcare Energy issues Morality Education Crime Environment Dont know Other, please specify:
45% 12% 3% 5% 1% 7% 2% 6% 7% % 3% % 10%
Democrats (RV)
36% 13% 3% 6% % 11% 3% 2% 11% % 4% 1% 9%
Republicans (RV)
60% 11% 1% 4% 1% 2% % 10% 3% % 1% % 7%
Independents (RV)
37% 8% 8% 3% 0% 6% 2% 5% 4% 0% 5% 1% 23%
14
Iran
The US economy
Immigration
Social Security
Medicare
Taxes
Gay marriage
15
Education
Foreign policy
Womens rights
The environment
Israel
16
For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100. Sample size 2,000 1,500 1,000 750 500 350 200 100 Credibility intervals 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.9 11.2
Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
1 Bayesian
17