G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE:

1724 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20009 Tel: (202) 234-5570 Fax: (202) 232-8134 www.hartresearch.com

Friends and Other Interested Parties Geoff Garin November 6, 2012 The Key Reasons For An Obama Victory

Those of you who know me know that I am a worrywart when it comes to elections, and I will be nervous until the winner is declared. That said, I fully expect Barack Obama to be reelected president today, and believe that he will win both the popular vote and the Electoral College. In preparation for an Obama victory, Mitt Romneys supporters already have starting blaming Hurricane Sandy and Chris Christie for Romneys loss, but those excuses miss the reality of what happened in this election and why. With the generous support of Priorities USA, I completed a national online survey yesterday among a representative national cross section of 1,058 voters. The survey findings provide valuable insights about this elections fundamentals. Based on this survey (in which party identification is 48% Democrat and 45% Republican), as well as other research in the weeks leading up to Election Day, here is my view of the most significant reasons for an Obama victory in a year when many core economic indicators suggested that the challenger should have had the upper hand. 1. Romneys only real path to victory was convincing voters that he would be better on the economy than President Obama. By elections end, Romney failed to do that. Only 38% of voters say that if Mitt Romney is elected president his economic policies will be good for people like them. By comparison, 44% say President Obamas policies will be good for people like them. More voters say that Romneys economic policies will be bad for people

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like themselves than feel that way about Obamas economic policies (42% for Romney, 40% for Obama). 2. While most voters are dissatisfied with the status quo, they still do not blame President Obama for our current economic problems. More important, a slim majority of voters now see the country as making progress, and President Obamas margin of victory will come from those who say that his policies will improve the economy in the next four years, even if they have not done so yet. Just 37% of voters say they are satisfied with the current situation in the country today, while 63% say they are dissatisfied. These circumstances would most likely doom an incumbents reelection, but two key mitigating factors are working in President Obamas favor. First, when voters identify the culprits most responsible for the economic problems facing the country, President Obama is far down the list 1 :

Wall Street and the big banks .......... Former President George W. Bush .... People who took out mortgages they could not afford ............................. The Republicans in Congress............ President Obama............................ The Democrats in Congress ............. Labor unions .................................

53% 42% 40% 36% 34% 33% 23%

The rank ordering on this list obviously is bad news for Governor Romney, given his affiliation with both Wall Street and President Bush. The majority who blame Wall Street and the big banks vote for Obama over Romney by 57% to 37%a big leg up for the President. to 13%. Not surprisingly, those who blame President Bush vote for Obama by 82%

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Second, while just 38% are satisfied with the status quo, a 51% majority say that compared with a year ago the country is now making progress; 17% say the country is standing still, and 32% say it is going in the wrong direction. Perceptions of whether the country is making progress are correlated more highly with voting behavior than are perceptions of current conditions in the country. Voters who see the country making progress support Obama over Romney by 86% to 9%. Those who think the country is standing still or going in the wrong direction support Romney by 85% to 8%. Significantly, cross-pressured voters who are dissatisfied with the status quo but still see the country as making progress support President Obama by 68% to 22%. Third, many (at least enough) voters who do not believe that President Obamas policies have yet improved the economy still believe that his policies will lead to a better economy if he is reelected. Overall, 34% say that President Obamas economic policies already are improving the economy, 18% say they havent yet but will improve the economy, and 48% say they havent and wont improve the economy. This is a thin margin, to be sure, but enough to get President Obama over the finish line because of voters doubts about Mitt Romney. 3. For most of this campaign, Mitt Romneys economic case was based on a credential rather than on a policy. But the advertising run by Priorities USA Action and others on Romneys record at Bain Capital took a very deep toll on the value of that credential. In the final round of swing state polling conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang and the Global Strategy Group, voters agreed by 17 points that as a businessman, (Romneys) priority was making millions for himself and his investors, regardless of the impact on jobs and the employees (54% true, 37% not true).

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4. On a policy level, voters overwhelmingly place more emphasis on electing a president who will rebuild the middle class than on one who will be pro-business. And, when it comes to looking out for the middle class, Mitt Romney is a severely flawed candidate from the perspective of most voters. Overall, 72% say it is more important to them to have a president whose focus will be on strengthening the middle class, while 28% say it is more important to elect a president whose focus will be on reducing taxes and regulations on business. Even Republicans divide by 51% to 49% for a president who will focus on the middle class (so much for class warfare!). In terms of voting preferences, President Obama has a very large advantage among the very large majority of voters who put their priority on electing a pro-middle-class presidentleading Romney among this group by 62% to 32%. (Romney is dominant among the minority of voters whose emphasis is on reducing taxes and regulations on business, by 84% to 11%). There is a clear reason why Governor Romney lags so far behind among Americans who want a president who will focus on the middle class: He has been clearly branded in most voters minds as someone who puts the interests of the wealthy and corporations ahead of those of the middle class. Indeed, 62% say he definitely will (42%) or In our probably will (20%) have economic policies that favor the wealthy and corporations over the middle class if he is elected president. final swing state polling with the Global Strategy Group, President Obama had a 15-point advantage over Governor Romney on who would be better on standing up for the interests of the middle class (51% Obama better, 36% Romney better).

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5. It turns out that Governor Romneys critique of government is not one that most concerns voters today. While many voters believe that government is too big and too costly, the majority are more concerned that it caters too much to the interests of the wealthy and big corporations. In our national pre-election poll, we asked voters to identify which of two concerns they consider to be the bigger problem with government that they would like to see our leaders change.

Government caters too much to the interests of the wealthy and big corporations, and does not pay enough attention to whats best for the average citizen ......................... 54% Government is too big, too costly, and too involved in things better left up to businesses and individuals..................................... 38% Neither of these is a problem ........... 8%

Those who say the bigger problem with government is that it caters too much to the wealthy and big corporations far prefer President Obama over Governor Romney in the election, by 71% to 22%. 6. While neither candidate is perfectly in sync with voters on the question of what the role of government ought to be, Governor Romney vacated the center on this question (and so many others), and as a result President Obama was better positioned to win the voters in the center. The decisive plurality of voters are looking for a president who represents a middle ground in his approach to government: Overall, 30% say they would prefer a president who believes government is too big, too costly, and too involved with things better left up to individuals, 21% say they would prefer a president who believes government needs to play an active role in solving problems and meeting peoples needs, and 49% prefer someone who strikes a middle ground between these two positions.

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Relatively small minorities see either Governor Romney or President Obama occupying this middle ground: 68% perceive Obama as preferring an activist government (27% middle ground), while 68% perceive Romney as preferring limited government (20% middle ground). However, those who are seeking a president who takes a more centrist, balanced approach to the role of government have a clear preference in this race: By 58% to 34%, they are casting their votes for Barack Obama. 7. Through his policies and positions, Mitt Romney helped stoke President Obamas demographic advantages with younger voters, Hispanics, and college-educated women. It is axiomatic that Democrats cannot win national elections without a strong gender gap, and Governor Romneys position on womens issuesespecially the elimination of funding for Planned Parenthoodcaused significant concerns about him among women voters. In my focus groups with women voters in the weeks leading up to the election, Governor Romneys position on ending funding for Planned Parenthood stood out as a sticky factone that women remembered from the welter of advertising and that became a handle for them in how they perceived Romney. In our national election eve survey, 62% of all women voters say that if Mitt Romney is elected he definitely will (40%) or probably will (20%) be too conservative on issues involving womens rights, such as eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood. too far in this respect. Indeed, when asked about the future of funding for Planned Parenthood, 64% of all voters say they want to see Congress continue funding, while just 36% say they want to see Congress eliminate this funding. Among all college-educated women, the result is a lopsided 75% for continuing it and 25% for eliminating it; 71% of white A majority of younger voters, both female and male, say Romney definitely will go

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college-educated Parenthood. 8. Finally, the enthusiasm gap is a weak reed for the Romney campaign to hang its hopes on, because it is not at all clear there really is one. Only 14% of President Obamas voters say they have been ambivalent about their choice at any point in the past few months, while the remainder say they have had a clear and strong preference for him throughout the past few months. proportion of Romneys voters By comparison, a slightly higher (18%) admit to having some women want to continue funding for Planned

ambivalence about supporting him. Obamas voters also express more confidence in their candidates programs; 66% say their vote is an expression of support for the Presidents policies, while just 43% of Governor Romneys backers say their vote is primarily an expression of support for Romneys policies and programs. Our national survey has several important findings about the policy direction voters want the President and Congress to take after the election on economic and fiscal issues, and I look forward to sharing those with you in the coming days.

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