The Royal Society of Edinburgh MacCormick European Lecture European Foreign Policy Is it Desirable and Possible?

? The Rt Hon Lord (Chris) Patten of Barnes CH

10 November 2010 Report by Peter Barr

Europe: Venus or Mars?

After describing the difficult birth of the European Union in the wake of the Second World War, and weighing up its strengths and weaknesses, as well as the UK's mixed feelings about its relations with Europe, Lord Patten said if Europe can learn the lessons from its own history, it may be able to devise a more effective foreign policy in future and play a more constructive global role. Henry Kissinger once famously asked, If I want to call Europe, who do I call? And this was the question Lord Patten attempted to answer... Lord Patten, who is Chancellor of Oxford University, began his talk by paying tribute to the late Sir Neil MacCormick, describing how he took Oxford by storm not just because he played the bagpipes but because he got a brilliant first in jurisprudence in only two years, despite being half an hour late for one of his final exams. MacCormick had a genius for making friends, added Patten. He was one of the treasures of the University of Edinburgh and a jewel in the crown of that curious institution better known as the European Parliament. The EU: Where does it come from? The former prime minister of Italy, Giuliano Amato, once described the European Union (EU) as a UFO he had a vague idea where it came from but no idea where it was going. Lord Patten traced the origins of the EU by saying how remarkable it was that it took so long for the countries of Europe to come together in the first place, and how that was explained by the other remarkable fact that Europe had been torn apart by three major conflicts in the previous 70 years the FrancoPrussian War and two World Wars. Many politicians had their ideas of Europe shaped by their experience in war, and Patten pointed out that the war memorial in Oxford University mentions not only UK and Commonwealth students but also the Germans who perished. It was an immorality, he added, that these young people went to Oxford to learn about European civilisation then returned to their own countries to slaughter each other. Lord Patten then described the role of the United States in the emergence of the European Union. In 1945, Europe was desperately keen for the US to stay and protect Western Europe from the Soviet Union, and the price asked by the US was a more united Europe, to share the burden of world leadership. The UK was initially reluctant, however, with Churchill saying that a more united Europe was a good idea for everyone except the UK. We were non-believers and patronising sceptics, said Lord Patten, quoting Labour Foreign Secretary, Ernest Bevin, who said that a united Europe was a Pandora's box you never know what Trojan horses will jump out. Eventually, however, Britain joined, but by that time, said Lord Patten, the EU had a French imprint, and since then the media, especially the tabloids, have been highly critical, as if the EU was some kind of conspiracy to rob us of our national heritage.

The EU was no super state or superpower, Lord Patten continued. It would also be misleading to compare the founders of the EU with the founding fathers of the US, since the EU was composed of proud nation states prepared to share their sovereignty democratically elected governments not individuals. The EU Treaty begins with the words, The King of the Belgians, not We the People, he added. It is also remarkable what the EU has achieved, he continued. Some of these achievements may seem prosaic, but the EU is the largest single market of diverse trading states in the world, with seven per cent of the world's population accounting for 22 per cent of its output more than the US, twice as much as China and four to five times more than India. As China increases its share of world exports, Europe holds on to its share better than major competitors. The EU has done very well in terms of economic success, but several major challenges face us today, including demographic changes and how we influence global affairs. Our population is ageing and our economy has to evolve. The EU once declared that it would become the world's leading knowledge-based economy by 2010 a target now revised to 2020. We face very difficult choices on policy matters such as pensions, etc., and one leading European politician commented that we know what we have to do but not how to get re-elected if we do it. In the EU, many people fear their quality of life will be threatened by political changes, especially if our economic power is eroded. Foreign policy: serious guidelines Some people used to believe that the EU was an economic giant but a political seven-stone weakling, Lord Patten began, as he moved on to describe the issues shaping current EU foreign policy and how it may develop in the future. The need to play a bigger international role was triggered by events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union and the dismemberment of Yugoslavia, when Europe stood on the sidelines while 200,000 Bosnians were slaughtered, and ethnic cleansing reared its ugly head again, despite all our pledges. Nation states may be the building blocks of the Union, he added, but we've found it hard to resist the forces around us. The UK doesn't manage very well on its own, but despite our special relationship with the US, it's better for the US for the UK to be in the heart of Europe. Is it possible to have a common security policy? Kissinger may have wondered whom he should call, but now we have a President (Herman Van Rumpoy) and a foreign policy chief (Baroness Ashton). But we also have 27 prime ministers and 27 foreign ministers, which may explain the weaknesses of EU foreign policy until now. The challenge is to reach decisions quickly and develop political will not just build institutions, said Lord Patten. The EU is good at communiques, he said, but not very good at action. For example, the EU issued 22 statements on the Middle East in the last year, but where we stand is still not very clear. Is the EU Venus while the US is Mars? If we are Venus,and hesitate to use military force, that may not be such a bad thing, said Lord Patten. The rest of the world paid a high price when Europe was Mars. We used to worry Germany spent too much on defence now we worry it is not spending enough. Lord Patten then described the major issues facing the EU today, including dialogue with China and relations with Russia. He said that it must be confusing for China to speak to the EU one day then the next day meet the representatives of several individual states with individual policies. Russia has used energy as a weapon to extend its sphere of influence, he added, and rather than developing a single energy policy for the EU, we have dragged our

feet and several European states have signed individual agreements with Russia. We have no coherent policy on Russia, he added, and in order to develop some serious guidelines for foreign policy, there are lessons to learn from our recent experience as well as our history. The EU has been successful in some spheres, he said, including regime change in Greece, Spain and Portugal in the sense that we encouraged democratic elections as one of the conditions of joining a role we have continued with the former member states of the Soviet Union. Peaceful dismantling of the Soviet Union was not a given, he added, and today we are playing a similar role in the Balkans. Turkey's membership of the EU may become a victim of enlargement fatigue, he continued, despite what it offers as an energy hub, a security player (as a member of Nato), and its role as a secular state with a large Islamic population, acting as a bridge between Europe and the Middle East. If we deny Turkey membership, Lord Patten stated, it would be hard for us to be taken seriously on the world stage. At various times, Europe has either defined its foreign policy in contradistinction to the US or acceded to US demands, but we should be much clearer about our own interests, Lord Patten continued e.g. when it comes to Iran and the problem of nuclear proliferation, we should think in terms of the impact on us, as well as on others. We are Israel's biggest trading partner at the same time as providing aid to Palestine, but we have simply settled for the job of holding America's coat, he said. Supporting US policy is all very well, but isn't such a good idea when when the US is doing nothing or getting nowhere. We should rein in our rhetoric, Lord Patten said, and focus on what we are actually going to do and are able to do. European countries spend 200 billion on defence, but the money is not wisely spent. The EU needs to understand that we can't matter everywhere like the US, and should focus on playing a a bigger role in areas such as Africa. We should not make extravagant claims about what we've achieved or could achieve in future, but we can provide an EU dimension, by learning from our own past experience. I do believe, Lord Patten concluded, that we can develop a more effective foreign policy, but I'm not holding my breath.

Q&A Q: What advice for the Prime Minister on his current visit to China? A: It is significant that David Cameron visited India first, said Lord Patten, since there is a qualitative difference in our relations with China and India. Even though India has a very similar value system to the UK, we should also seek a more positive relationship with China and be more realistic about its role as a world leader. We are not witnessing the sudden rise of China, he added. China has been the world's greatest economic power for 18 out of the last 20 centuries, and in the 21st Century, will again be a dominant force; even though by 2040, India will be the nation with the largest and the youngest population. There are reasons to be nervous about China's relations with the US and its neighbours, and how it manages political change, but we should still want China to succeed, not fall apart. We may also be keen to close the export gap with China, now standing at 18 billion a year, but recent trade promotion efforts will not have a serious impact, at least in the short term, despite the talented business people visiting China this week. China will always seek the best deal. There is no sentiment involved in seeking economic progress. But Lord Patten hoped relations with China would continue to improve, noting that his own university has more than 700 Chinese students, including a third of all the mathematicians at Oxford. We should hope China spends more on imports and hope its currency rises in value, while its political model improves, but one visit is not enough, he concluded. Q: What about the policies of France and Germany concerning the Roma people? A: Europe talks a lot about exporting its values, Lord Patten began, but what do we really mean? We would be taken more seriously if we were less hypocritical and more consistent in pursuit of our principles. A little more humility would seem to be in order, he added. Q: What about the elephant in the room the euro? A: The challenge is how to sustain a single currency that benefits some but not others, Lord Patten replied. Germany may have borne a lot of the burden and exerted fiscal discipline while some other countries pursued their self-interest, but Germany has also benefited from the euro. The reunification of Germany was dependent on losing the deutschemark, but if the German people had been asked to decide in a referendum, they would never have agreed. The euro was designed to close the gap between different economies, including labour costs, but some nations feasted on low interest rates, then asked Germany to bail them out when things went wrong. Germany, however, sells more to its partners in Europe than to China, and its exports are cheaper because of the euro; it had to accept that these benefits came at a cost. The euro zone may be a triumph of politics over economics, but there is still a lot of passionate support for the euro amongst countries such as Spain, despite the fact there can be attractions to devaluing your own currency when times are hard. Q: How can NATO and the EU work together to counter the terrorist threat? A: The EU has a good relationship with NATO, said Lord Patten, but EU states don't spend wisely on defence or co-operate enough. The big issue is that the greatest threats don't come from strong but from weak and failing states, including Somalia, Yemen and Afghanistan and, in the future, maybe even Mexico. Problems with countries such as the Congo and Zimbabwe could not be ghettoised, he continued, by building a wall around them, and drugs and AIDS also posed serious threats to our welfare 90 per cent of the heroin injected in Edinburgh tonight came from Afghanistan.

Q: What advice did he have on the teaching of languages, including Chinese? A: Before the 1930s, said Lord Patten, French and German were not taught at Oxford because the students were expected to know them anyway. The UK's decline in languages is a disaster, he said. There is too much emphasis on easy subjects. Politicians could reverse this trend, not just for utilitarian reasons but also because it's an important discipline which teaches us about other civilisations. We should also encourage more people to move into teaching. History and geography also appear to have been sidelined, he added. Q: Should the EU have its own diplomatic service? A: There are questions about the recent setting up of Europe's Action Service, most concerning budget and professional staffing. There may be a case for an EU diplomatic service, but how would we use it? Lord Patten hoped Baroness Ashton would get tougher on budgetary issues, since it may not be wise for the EU to spend more at a time when individual states are tightening their belts. Q: You seem to be in favour of Turkey becoming a member, but how would we deal with immigration from Turkey, bearing in mind how much we underestimated emigration from Poland? A: We may have underestimated Polish migration, but we did very well from it, Lord Patten said. If Turkey joins, we should not assume there would be free movement of labour, but some countries (e.g. Italy) need more economically active people. The situation changes all the time, and Turkey will accept limits. In fact, we need Turkey to join the EU now more than Turkey wants to be a member. We must discuss migration in a grown-up way, he concluded. Immigration caps could cause huge problems, but it is reasonable to talk about the issues and try to address them. There will be social tensions and economic problems ahead, but we have to discuss how to put some limit on immigration to Britain.

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