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November 9, 2012
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 27.9 33.8 73bp 53.2 1QFY13 694 120 17.2 76 % chg (qoq) 3.6 (1.3) (81)bp 4.4
`258 `270
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Auto Ancillary 4,400 (308) 0.5 267/90 31,390 1.0 18,684 5,686 AMAR.BO AMRJ@IN
Amara Raja Batteries (AMRJ) registered impressive results for 2QFY2013 driven by double-digit growth in the automotive replacement and UPS batteries segments. We expect the company to sustain its growth momentum going ahead, led by widening reach, strong product offerings and increasing capacity. We revise our revenue and earnings estimates upwards to factor in the strong operating performance during the quarter. Nonetheless, due to limited upside from the current levels we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock. 2QFY2013 performance beats estimates: AMRJ posted an impressive growth of 27.9% yoy (3.6% qoq) in its top-line to `719cr led by strong double digit volume growth in the automotive replacement battery segment. Further, sustained momentum in the tubular and home UPS segment also aided the top-line growth. However, the automotive OEM and industrial battery businesses reported a marginal growth led by sluggish demand environment. The EBITDA margin witnessed a 73bp yoy expansion to 16.4% largely due to superior product-mix. During the quarter, the raw-material expense as a percentage of sales declined 121bp yoy mainly due to a decline in lead prices. However, on a qoq basis, margins contracted 81bp due to 19.9% increase in other expenditure on account of escalating conversion and distribution costs owing to power shortage. Led by a strong operating performance and significant increase in other income, the adjusted net profit registered a 53.2% yoy (4.4% qoq) growth to `79cr. Outlook and valuation: Due to the strong performance over the last six quarters, AMRJ has narrowed the valuation gap over the market leader, Exide from 30-35% to ~20% currently. We estimate AMRJs top-line to witness a strong CAGR of ~18% over FY201214E, leading to a ~26% CAGR in its net profit, aided by sustained growth in the automotive and industrial battery volumes. At `258, AMRJ is trading at 13x FY2014E earnings. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `270, valuing the stock at 13.6x (15% discount to Exides multiple of 16x) FY2014E EPS.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 52.1 21.7 12.1 14.1
3m 6.4 64.4
FY2011 1,761 20.3 148 (6.9) 14.6 8.7 29.7 6.8 24.9 30.3 2.5 17.2
FY2012 2,367 34.4 215 45.2 15.0 12.6 20.5 5.3 29.3 35.9 1.8 12.0
FY2013E 2,911 23.0 295 37.4 16.1 17.3 14.9 4.1 31.1 39.2 1.4 8.9
FY2014E 3,321 14.1 339 14.7 16.2 19.8 13.0 3.2 27.6 35.8 1.2 7.6
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 719 420 58.4 52 7.3 30 4.2 99 13.7 601 118 16.4 1 13 7 111 (9) 102 14.2 32 31.1 70 79 11.1 17.1 4.1 4.7
2QFY12 562 371 66.1 5 0.8 22 3.8 76 13.6 474 88 15.7 1 12 1 77 77 13.7 25 32.5 52 52 9.2 17.1 3.0 3.0
% chg (yoy) 27.9 13.0 1,033.6 40.2 28.9 26.8 33.8 (38.2) 13.3 402.6 44.6 32.4 26.7 35.2 53.2
1QFY13 694 411 59.3 52 7.4 29 4.2 82 11.8 574 120 17.2 0 13 6 112 112 16.2 36 32.3 76 76 11.0 17.1
% chg (qoq) 3.6 2.0 (1.5) 1.6 (1.9) 3.1 (0.5) 19.9 15.7 4.6 (1.3) (4.7) 431.5 2.1 19.9 (1.1) (9.4) (12.5) (12.6) (3.5) (7.9) 4.4 0.8 0.0 (7.9) 4.4
1HFY13 1,413 831 58.8 104 7.4 59 4.2 181 12.8 1,175 237 16.8 1 26 13 223 (9) 214 15.2 68 31.7 146 156 11.0 17.1 8.6 9.1
1HFY12 1,087 721 66.3 24 2.2 45 4.1 141 13.0 931 156 14.3 1 22 2 135 135 12.4 44 32.6 91 91 8.4 17.1 5.3 5.3
% chg (yoy) 30.0 15.3 329.8 32.0 28.3 26.2 52.3 (39.9) 17.4 432.5 65.8 58.8 54.5 60.9 71.2
35.2 53.2
4.5 4.5
60.9 71.2
Better-than-expected growth in top-line: AMRJ registered an impressive 27.9% yoy (3.6% qoq) growth in its top-line to `719cr driven by a strong double digit growth in the automotive replacement segment. Further, sustained momentum in the tubular and home UPS segments also aided the top-line growth. However, the automotive OEM and industrial battery business reported a marginal growth led by a sluggish demand environment. The company is expanding its four-wheeler battery manufacturing capacity at the Chittoor plant from 5.6mn units a year to 6mn units by 3QFY2013 at an outlay of `14cr. AMRJs capacity utilization for four-wheeler batteries is currently at ~90% and the management expects to remain at current levels in 2HFY2013. Of the existing capacity of 5.6mn four-wheeler batteries, around one-third is supplied to the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the remaining to the replacement segment. For the two-wheeler battery segment, out of the installed capacity of 4.8mn batteries, around 3.6mn units are supplied to the replacement segment. The company intends to increase the two-wheeler battery capacity with an investment outlay of ~`100cr as it is on course of entering the OEM business.
November 9, 2012
27.9
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
EBITDA margin remains strong: During 2QFY2013, operating margins witnessed a 73bp yoy expansion to 16.4% largely due to superior product-mix. During the quarter, the raw-material expense as a percentage of sales declined 121bp yoy mainly due to decline in lead prices. However, on a qoq basis, margins contracted 81bp due to 19.9% increase in other expenditure on account of escalating conversion and distribution costs owing to power shortage. As a result, the operating profit jumped 33.8% yoy (flat qoq) to `118cr.
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
2QFY13
Mar-07
Dec-09
Apr-06
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Nov-10
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Oct-11
Sep-12
Adjusted net profit beats estimates; up 53.2% yoy: Led by a strong operating performance and significant increase in other income, the adjusted net profit registered a 53.2% yoy (4.4% qoq) growth to `79cr.
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2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
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2QFY13
Investment arguments
AMRJ is Indias second-largest manufacturer of lead batteries, with a market share of ~28%. US based Johnson Controls is a joint venture partner of AMRJ and holds a 26% equity stake in the company. The automotive and industrial battery segments contributed ~55% and ~45% respectively to AMRJs overall revenue in FY2012. We expect the automotive battery market to post a ~15% CAGR in sales over FY201214E, led by healthy growth in replacement demand, a 10-12% CAGR in new vehicle sales and shrinking market share of unorganized players. Thus, during FY201214E, we expect AMRJs automotive battery segment to post a ~18% revenue CAGR. Also, with a strong focus on strengthening its distribution network, we expect AMRJ to increase its market share to ~30% by FY2013E. AMRJ pioneered the use of maintenance-free batteries with a presence in the railway signaling, telecom, power and supply solutions segments. Going forward, we expect the power backup (home UPS) segment to drive demand for industrial batteries, leading to a ~13% revenue CAGR in AMRJs industrial battery segment over FY201214E.
On the valuation front, AMRJ is trading at 13x FY2014E earnings and at a ~20% discount to Exide (adjusted for its insurance business). Although, AMRJ has always traded at a discount to Exide (due to Exides leadership position, scale of operations, superior margins and return ratios), the valuation gap has narrowed over the last six quarters backed by strong operating performance by AMRJ. We expect the discount to narrow further to 15% led by a) increasing scale of operations, b) sustainable revenue and earnings visibility and c) improving return ratios. At `258, AMRJ is trading at 13x FY2014E earnings. We recommend Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `270, valuing the stock at 13.6x (15% discount to Exides multiple of 16x) FY2014E EPS.
November 9, 2012
Feb-07
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P/E (x) FY13E 14.9 10.1 14.0 26.7 19.3 17.0 20.1 8.3
^
EV/EBITDA (x) FY13E 8.9 5.3 6.8 17.0 10.6 10.4 8.1 4.8 FY14E 7.6 4.2 5.7 13.0 8.3 8.0 6.6 4.3 13.0 8.7 11.3 21.2 15.4 13.8 15.3 5.3
RoE (%) FY13E 31.1 21.2 18.5 18.7 18.5 21.3 22.9 8.2 FY14E 27.6 21.2 19.7 19.5 19.9 21.6 24.7 12.2
FY12-14E EPS CAGR (%) 25.5 6.2 14.6 10.9 28.4 9.5 56.2 7.7
FY14E
Motherson Sumi*
Company background
Amara Raja Batteries, a JV between Galla family and Johnson Controls, US, is India's second largest manufacturer in the organized valve-regulated lead-acid (VRLA) batteries market finding applications in the automotive (~55% of total revenue) and industrial (~45% of total revenue) segments. AMRJ has a market share of 26% in four-wheeler OEMs, 19% in four-wheeler replacement and 25% in two-wheeler replacement battery markets. The company also commands dominant market shares of 46% and 32% in the telecom and UPS battery segments respectively. AMRJ derives ~45% and ~35% of its industrial segment's revenue from the telecom and UPS battery segments respectively.
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Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.4 1.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.1 70.5 (0.2) (0.5) 75.7 (0.2) (0.5) 124.4 (0.2) (0.6) 172.4 3.6 49 60 30 86 3.2 47 56 35 65 3.4 52 57 38 61 4.1 43 48 31 49 4.2 40 49 31 44 4.0 42 49 31 51 19.6 22.7 21.8 35.9 42.5 33.5 30.3 30.6 24.9 35.9 44.0 29.3 39.2 46.1 31.1 35.8 43.6 27.6 10.3 0.7 2.2 14.8 4.4 14.8 16.8 0.7 2.5 27.5 2.8 27.5 12.2 0.7 2.7 22.6 2.3 22.6 13.0 0.7 3.4 29.6 3.1 29.6 14.3 0.7 3.6 35.3 3.2 35.3 14.3 0.7 3.3 32.5 3.2 32.5 4.7 4.7 6.7 0.4 23.7 9.8 9.3 11.8 1.5 31.8 8.7 8.7 11.1 2.3 37.8 12.6 12.6 15.3 1.9 48.2 17.3 17.3 20.5 2.0 63.2 19.8 19.8 23.6 2.0 80.7 54.7 38.2 10.8 0.2 3.5 27.0 6.4 26.3 21.8 8.1 0.6 3.0 15.3 6.7 29.7 23.2 6.8 0.9 2.5 17.2 5.8 20.5 16.8 5.3 0.7 1.8 12.0 4.5 14.9 12.5 4.1 0.8 1.4 8.9 3.6 13.0 10.9 3.2 0.8 1.2 7.6 2.8 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
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10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
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