IN BLACK AND WHITE

Lessons for 2013 from climate science and observations in 2012

David Spratt BZE discussion 4 February 2013

EMISSIONS GROWTH

Global fossil & cement emissions 9.50.5PgC in 2011, 54% over 1990 ProjecBon for 2012: 9.70.5PgC 58% over 1990

Uncertainty is 5% for one standard deviation (IPCC likely range) Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Qur et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012

Global carbon dioxide emissions

EMISSIONS GROWTH

NEW EMISSIONS SOURCES

Emissions growth in 2011 China responsible for 80% of global emissions growth

For comparison, Germany emitted a total of 0.2PgC in 2011 Source: CDIAC Data; Le Qur et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Emissions growth 2000-2011

EMISSIONS BY TYPE

coal +4.9%, oil +1.1% gas +2.7% cement +6.9% aring +4.3%
(not shown)

Share of global emissions in 2011

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Qur et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

EMISSION BY COUNTRY

Top 4 emi>ers in 2011 covered 62% of global emissions

China (28%), United States (16%), EU27 (11%), India (7%)

The growing gap between EU27 and USA is due to emission decreases in Germany (45% of the 1990-2011 cumulative difference), UK (19%), Romania (13%), Czech Republic (8%), and Poland (5%) Source: CDIAC Data; Le Qur et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

PER CAPITA EMISSIONS

World average per capita emissions in 2011 1.4tC/p

China 1.8tC/p, United States 4.7tC/p, EU27 2.0tC/p, India 0.5tC/p

Chinese per capita emissions are almost equal to the EU27, and 36% higher than the global average Source: CDIAC Data; Le Qur et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

Emissions heading to 4-6.1C likely increase in temperature by 2100

4 DEGREES?

Linear interpolation is used between individual datapoints Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Global Carbon Project 2012;

A 4-degree warmer world? New World Bank-commissioned report warns the world is on track to a 4C world by 2100 and as early as 2060

4 DEGREES?

"We are expecBng in the next 50 years for two to three degrees more warming Prof David Karoly, ABC News, 12 Jan 2013 4 to 6C warming over pre-industrial Bmes by the end of this century Dr Pep Canadell, CSIRO Climate InteracBve >>

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Eocene peak

Climate past and future Lessons for 2C and 4C warming

PETM natural greenhouse event at 55 million years ago.

This is a graphical interpretaBon by of aspects of recent paleo-climate research by: Hansen, J. E. and M. Sato (2012). Paleoclimate implications for human-made climate change in Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects. Berger, Mesinger and ijai (eds), Springer, Vienna, 2012.

AntarcLc glaciaLon ~ 34 million years ago

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Relative temperature

Eocene peak

Around 34 million years ago, glaciaBon of AntarcBca at tail-end of protracted upper Eocene cooling.

Northern hemisphere glaciaLon ~ 4.5 million years ago

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Relative temperature

Eocene peak

Around ~4.5 million years ago, northern hemisphere glaciaBon. Associated with the rise of the Panama Cordillera which isolates the Pacic from the AtlanBc oceans and leads to intra-oceanic circulaBon (Gyres) which introduces warm currents and moisture to the North AtlanBc resulBng in increased snow fall and formaBon of ice in Greenland, LaurenBa and Fennoscandia.

During Pliocene, atmospheric CO2 values fell from ~410 ppm to ~ 300 ppm

The last million years

Climate swings between ice ages and warm inter-glacial periods over last million years. CO2 between 170 and 300 parts per million.

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Relative temperature

Carbon dioxide and methane over last 500,000 years

The last 10,000 years the Holocene

Relative temperature

Peak Holocene temp.

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Peak of Holocene (over last 10,000 years up 1900AD)

Holocene: aper the last ice age, relaBvely stable temperatures (+/0.5C) and sea- levels over last 10,000 years the period of human civilisaBon

Todays temperature is above the Holocene maximum

CO2 level today (2011) is 393ppm but thermal inerBa (delay as ocean mass warm) means temperature will increase further. Temperatures have risen ~0.83C since 1900 and are now above peak Holocene.
2010

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Relative temperature

Peak of Holocene (over last 10,000 years up 1900AD) Global average temperature now above peak Holocene

2 degrees goodbye to Greenland ice sheet

When climate system reaches equilibrium, present level of CO2 will produce >2C of warming with feedbacks
+2C

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Relative temperature

Peak of Holocene (over last 10,000 years up 1900AD) Global average temperature now above peak Holocene 2C of warming over pre-industrial: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases

 which is sucient for large parts of Greenland and West AntarcBc ice sheets to be lost, leading to at least a 2510 metre sea-level rise over Bme

Goals to limit human-made warming to 2C.. are not sufficient they are prescriptions for disaster Dr James Hansen

Relative temperature

+2C

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900AD Global average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene 2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases

4 degrees goodbye to AntarcLc ice sheet

Best present emission reducBon commitments by all governments (if implemented) will sBll lead to 4 degrees of warming by 2100
Relative temperature

+4C

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Peak of Holocene (over last 10,000 years up 1900AD) Global average temperature now above peak Holocene 2C of warming over pre-industrial: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases 4C of warming over pre-industrial

and likely loss overBme of all ice sheets. No ice sheets on planet = 70 metre sea-level rise over Bme

PALEO-CLIMATE LESSONS

Relative temperature

+4C

Peak of Holocene (over last 10,000 years up 1900AD) Global average temperature now above peak Holocene 2C of warming over pre-industrial: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases 4C of warming over pre-industrial

PALE0-CLIMATE LESSONS

Period Last glacial maximum

Years ago 20,000 years ago

CO2 ppm 170 ppm

Temp (2010 base) 5C

Sea level 120 m lower 5-15 m higher 2510 m higher

Eemian inter- 120,000 years 280320 ppm +0.51C glacial ago Mid-Pliocene 3 million years ago Pliocene (northern hemisphere glaciaBon) Today Oligocene (start of southern hemisphere glaciaBon) 2-4 million years ago 365400 ppm +1C 410ppm falling to 300ppm 450ppm CO2e 3234 million CO2 levels years ago fell below ~750ppm +1C ~ 0

2+??? +3C

??? 70 m higher before glaciaBon

ARCTIC BIG MELT 2012

ArcLc (oaLng) sea-ice record melt in 2012 11.83 mill. sq. kms of sea ice lost 20 March16 September Half 19792000 average area: 51% to 24% in 2012 Two-thirds of ice area loss in the last 12 years Process is acceleraBng The sea-ice is also thinning rapidly

ARCTIC BIG MELT 2012

ARCTIC SEA ICE VOLUME

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

80% of summer sea- ice volume lost since 1979: 16,855 cubic kms to 2012: 3,263 cubic kms ice Half of loss in last 7 years

How soon before there is an ice-free day? UK parlt Environment Audit Commiuee (15 January 2013): observaBons and modelling supported the view that the end-summer sea ice would remain unBl at least 2030 but this is based on modelling that is decades behind reality

Cambridge Professor Peter Wadhams scenario Summer sea-ice all gone by 2015or 2016 except perhaps small mulB-year remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Is. By 2020 ice free season lasts at least a month By 2030 ice-free period has extended to 3 months. Sept SST already elevated 6-7C over conBnental shelves. Oshore permafrost to shrink back & vanish over ~10 years Forecast for 4C by 2100 occurs by 2060

SEA-ICE PREDICTIONS

ArcLc amplicaLon

ARCTIC BIG MELT 2012

ArcBc amplicaBon now 3x, moving to x3.54 3 months of ArcBc summer free of sea-ice will increase regional temperature ~ 2C. and global temperature by ~ 0.5C 1 month ice free will increase global T by ~0.2C

GREENALAND ICE SHEET

MelBng over Greenland ice sheet shauered the seasonal record in the modern era, 4 weeks before close of the melBng season

ReecLvity of GIS at high elevaBons involved in the mid- July melt event (97% surface melBng), declined to record lows

GREENALAND ICE SHEET

Could the Greenland ice sheet survive if the ArcBc were sea-ice-free in summer and fall? not only is ice sheet survival unlikely, but its disintegraBon would be a wet process that can proceed rapidly James Hansen The Bpping point for Greenland revised down to 1.6C (uncertainty range of 0.8-3.2C) above pre-industrial (Robinson et al, Nature Climate Change 2:429432) Paleo-climate record shows Greenland ice sheet formed at less than 400ppm CO2 and we are there now IMHO Bpping point for Greenland has already been crossed but we will only know it retrospect!

GREENALAND ICE SHEET

How quickly is Greenland ice sheet melLng? Not data over a long enough period yet, but Hansens musings If Greenland ice mass loss rate is exponenBal: A 10-year doubling Bme (green line) would lead to 1 metre sea level rise by 2067 & 5 metres by 2090. A 5-year doubling Bme (red line) would lead to 1 metre sea level rise by 2045 & 5 metres by 2057.

WEST ANTARCTICA

Western AntarcLc Ice Sheet is warming nearly twice as fast as previously thought an increase of 2.4C in average annual temperature between 1958 and 2010

SEA-LEVEL RISES

Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States NaBonal Climate Assessment, NOAA (2012)

US government looks at 2-metre SLR by 2100 scenario U.S. Army Corps of Engineers updated guidance: a credible upper bound for 21st century sea-level rise would not exceed 2 meters While Australia sBck to a max. to 2100 of 1.1 metres !!

Permafrost PosiBve permafrost carbon feedback will change the ArcBc from a carbon sink to a source aper the mid-2020s and is strong enough to cancel 4288 per cent of the total global land sink. Tipping point for the large-scale loss of permafrost carbon is around 810C regional temperature increase. ArcBc amplicaBon is X3.54 so around a 22.5C increase is enough. Feedbacks would drive T higher. Philippe Caias: A global average increase in air temp. of 2C and a few unusually hot years could see permafrost soil temperatures reach the 8C threshold for releasing billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide and methane.

PERMAFROST

ARCTIC LESSONS

KEY LESSON FROM ARCTIC IN 2012 As the system changes, we must adjust our (understanding of the) science in Climate Progress, 13 September 2012

GULF STREAM

Gulf stream wobble Record rains in Europe Extreme cold snaps in Europe and USA Magnifying the Superstorm Sandy impact

ArcLc warming and mid-laLtude weather When the Polar Vortex a ring of winds circling the ArcBc breaks down, this allows cold air to spill south, aecBng the eastern US and other regions resulBng in a warmer-than-average ArcBc region and colder temperatures that may include severe winter weather events on the North American and European conBnents. Dr James Overland, NOAA Increased wave amplitude would cause associated weather pauerns in mid-laBtudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged condiBons, such as drought, ooding, cold spells, and heat waves. Evidence linking ArcBc amplicaBon to extreme weather in mid-laBtudes, Francis et al GRL 39:6

GULF STREAM

CONNECTING THE DOTS

ConnecLng the dots Superstorm Sandy Dr Bob Corell, Dr Je Masters and Dr Kevin Trenberth Well probably never know the exact point when the weather stopped being enBrely natural. But we should consider Sandyand other recent extreme weather events an early taste of a climate-changed world, and a grim preview of the even worse to come, parBcularly if we conBnue to pump more carbon polluBon from smokestacks and tailpipes up into the atmosphere. Its Bme to stop asking when climate change will arrive. Its here, and we need to move aggressively to curb carbon emissions while also preparing for a changed world. We are at nothing less than a criBcal juncture.

Australia 2009 Victorian res 2011 Queensland oods and . And now 2013 naBon-wide heat wave Extreme in spaBal extent and duraBon Highest naBonal daily maximum 40.33C (7 Nanuary 2013) Houest 2-day period on record. NaBonal mean temp records at 32.22C (January 7) and 32.32C (January 8) Sequence of naBonal average temp above 39C of 7 days; 11 days straight of naBonal average above 38C Record maximums in Hobart, Sydney, many more Seven of houest 20 days in the climate record in 2013 SeptDec 2012 average Australian max temperature highest on record. Anomaly of +1.61 C 70% of conBnent recorded temps > 42C between 114 Jan

CONNECTING THE DOTS

CONNECTING THE DOTS

In first 14 days of January, 70% of Australia experienced a 42C+ day

CONNECTING THE DOTS

A T100 (1-in-100 year event) value in a 4C-warmer world Temperature extremes reach values around 50C in large parts of the area equator-ward of 30 degrees Projected T100 values far exceed 40C in Southern Europe, the US Mid- West by 2090-2100 and even reach 50C in north-eastern India and most of Australia

CONNECTING THE DOTS

PM Julia Gillard in 2013 "And while you would not put any one event down to climate change ... we do know that over Bme as a result of climate change we are going to see more extreme weather events [Note problems with this formulaBon see Trenberth] Landscape to moonscape a perfect storm Compare this to Victorian re and Queensland ood responses from poliBcians where climate change was not menBoned Victorian Royal Commission into bushres excluded climate change from terms of reference! David Karoly told 2009 4 degrees conference in paper on Black Saturday that: We are unleashing hell on Australia

Je Masters, Weather Underground

CONNECTING THE DOTS

The climate has shiped to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. I like to think of the weather as a game of dice. Mother Nature rolls the dice each day to determine the weather, and the rolls fall within the boundaries of what the climate will allow. The extreme events that happen at the boundaries of what are possible are what people tend to noBce the most. When the climate changes, those boundaries change. Thus, the main way people will tend to noBce climate change is through a change in the extreme events that occur at the boundaries of what is possible.

Dr Kevin Trenberth, US NCAR

CONNECTING THE DOTS

Its not the right quesBon to ask if this storm or that storm is due to global warming, or is it natural variability. Nowadays, theres always an element of both.... there is a systemaBc inuence on all of these weather events now-a- days because of the fact that there is this extra water vapor lurking around in the atmosphere than there used to be say 30 years ago.

Prof David Karoly

CONNECTING THE DOTS

What we have been able to see is clear evidence of an increasing trend in hot extremes, reducBons in cold extremes and with the increases in hot extremes and more frequent extreme re danger days. "What it means for the Australian summer is an increased frequency of hot extremes, more hot days, more heatwaves and more extreme bushre days and that's exactly what we've been seeing typically over the last decade and we will see even more frequently in the future. Prof Ross Garnaut The failure of our generaBon on climate change miBgaBon would lead to consequences that would haunt humanity to the end of Bme.

CONNECTING THE DOTS

What we should say ConnecLng the dots In Australia and around the world, people are experiencing record temperatures, heat waves, bush res and ooding. This extreme weather is what climate change feels like, and it will get worse if we conBnue to burn fossil fuels such as. When we live through a 47C day in Victoria (2009), or 15 days in a row over 35C in Adelaide (2008), or experience eight heat waves in one Perth summer (2012), or the naBonwide record extreme heatwave in Jan 2013, we are experiencing the future. When we experience the extreme ooding of 2010 and 2011 in northern Australia, or weuest summer on record in Victoria in 2010-11, we are experiencing the future. If we do not act, most of Australia will experience extreme temperatures* of more than 50 degrees this century.

THE POLICY PARADIGM

The giving up paradigm We are heading to 4 degrees How can we adapt to 4 degrees? (We cant!) 2 degrees is all but impossible to achieve What isnt said 2 degrees is also a catastrophe We can get back to a safe climate It will take extraordinary measures

THE POLICY PARADIGM

David Roberts TEX talk

A 4C future is incompaBble with an organised global community. Prof. Kevin Anderson

425 400 375

CO2 with 6%/year Emissions Cut and Reforestation (a)

EMISSION SCENARIOS

350 325 300 275 1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

Hansens 350ppm until 2060 scenario (b) 600 until in 6% annual reducBon 2045 CO2 until 2030 until 2020 emissions starBng 2013 plus 500 100 billion tonnes of 400 reforestaBon between 2031 and 2080 reduces CO2 to 300 <350ppm by end of century. 1850 2000 2150 2300 2450

Effect of Continued BAU Fossil Fuel Emissions

CO2 (ppm)

WGBU/Potsdam 2C scenario Annual reducBon in CO2 3.7% pa starBng in 2011 5.3% pa starBng in 2015 9% pa starBng in 2020

CO2 (ppm)

EMISSION SCENARIOS

Real clothes for the emperor Kevin Anderson PDF

it is dicult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession being compaBble with stabilisaBon at or below 650ppmv CO2e. Kevin Anderson & Alice Bows 2008

LIMITS TO GROWTH

Are we heading over a cli? Jorgen Randers Paul Gilding Graham Turner Paul & Anne Ehrlich David Roberts George Monbiot Naomi Klein

LIMITS TO GROWTH

RevisiLng the Limits to Growth scenarios aner 40 years

A 40-year-old model and forecasts of the global economic and environmental system that many had relegated to the dustbin of history appears to be standing the test of Bme surprisingly well. The insight and messages of The limits to growth stand as a warning of potenBal global collapse perhaps more imminent than generally recognised. Graham Turner, CSIRO, 2012

Limits to growth: collapse or managed change? AcceleraBng growth cannot last forever Increasing polluBon and ecosystem degradaBon, and DepleBng non-renewable resources leads to Increased costs of extracBon and loss of capital investment for other sectors as resources deplete Climate change impacts on water, crops, food, where to live ConBnuing down this path will lead to Overshoot and collapse So change in behaviour and technology required Choice is collapse or managed decline (new soluBons) But soluBons and implementaBon delay because All decision are made in a context And the context inuences the decisions

LIMITS TO GROWTH

The context of societys decision-making today Post-war growth and prosperity paradigm Happiness via conBnued economic growth based on fossil fuels Modern, deregulated capitalism, based on: eciency of market soluBons self-correcBng ability of democraBc governments benet based on increasing auence increased public welfare through trade & globalisaBon That is The industrial revoluLon paradigm But this is now a world of systemic unsustainability OverconsumpBon, social isolaBon, poorer mental health & mulB-systems crisis (climate, ecosystems, resources, etc) So civilisaLon is on the brink of collapse

POLITICAL PARADIGM

A new paradigm for climate change Anderson and Bows, Nature Climate Change 2:63964 Put bluntly, climate change commitments are incompaBble with short- to medium-term economic growth ( for 10 to 20 years). Moreover, work on adapBng to climate change suggests that economic growth cannot be reconciled with the breadth and rate of impacts as the temperature rises towards 4 C and beyond . Away from the A new paradigm for microphone and despite claims of climate change 'green growth', few if any scienBsts W working on climate change would disagree with the broad thrust of this candid conclusion. The elephant in the room sits undisturbed while collecBve acquiescence and cogniBve dissonance trample all who dare to ask dicult quesBons.
opinion & comment
results on CTI available with current data are unlikely to be awed by major problems due to STI uncertainty.
Vincent Devictor1*, Chris van Swaay2, Tom Brereton3, Llus Brotons4,5, DanChamberlain6, Janne Helil7, SergiHerrando4, Romain Julliard8, MikkoKuussaari7, ke Lindstrm9, Ji Reif10, David B. Roy11, Oliver Schweiger12, Josef Settele12, Constant Stefanescu13, Arco Van Strien14, Chris Van Turnhout15,16, Zdenk Vermouzek17, Michiel Wallis De Vries2,18, Irma Wynho 2 and Frdric Jiguet8 1 Institut des Sciences de lEvolution, UMR CNRS-UM2 5554, Montpellier 34095, France, 2 Dutch Buttery Conservation, PO Box506, 6700AM, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 3 Buttery Conservation, Wareham, BH20 5QP, UK, 4Catalan Ornithological Institute, 08003 Barcelona, Spain, 5Centre Tecnolgic Forestal de Catalunya, 25280 Solsona, Spain, 6 British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, IP24 2PU, UK, 7Finnish Environment Institute, PO Box140, Helsinki FIN-00251, Finland, 8 Conservation des Espces Restauration et Suivi des Populations-MNHN, Paris 75005, France, 9Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund SE-223 62, Sweden, 10 Institute for Environmental Studies, Charles University in Prague, 128 01, Praha 2, Czech Republic, 11Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK, 12 UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Community Ecology, Halle D-06120, Germany, 13Museu de Granollers Cincies Naturals, E-08400 Granollers, Spain, 14Statistics Netherlands, PO Box24500, 2490HA The Hague, The Netherlands, 15SOVON Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology, 6573DG Beek-Ubbergen, The Netherlands, 16Department of Environmental Science and Department of Animal Ecology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University Nijmegen, PO Box9010, 6500GL Nijmegen, The Netherlands, Czech Society for Ornithology, 150 00, Praha 5, Czech Republic, 18Laboratory of Entomology,Wageningen University, PO Box8031, 6700 EH, Wageningen, The Netherlands. *e-mail: vincent.devictor@univ-montp2.fr
17

POLITICAL PARADIGM

References

1. Devictor, V. etal. Nature Clim. Change. 2, 121124 (2012). 2. Hijmans, R.J. etal. Int. J. Clim. 25, 19651978 (2005). 3. Hagemeijer, W.J.M. & Blair, M.J. e EBCC Atlas of European Breeding Birds: eir Distribution and Abundance (T. & A.D. Poyser, 1997). 4. Settele, J. etal. BioRisk 2, 3372 (2009). 5. Albert, C.H. etal. Persp. Plant Ecol. Evol. http://dx.doi. org/10.1016/j.ppees.2011.04.003 (in the press). 6. Lindstrm, . etal. Ecography http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.16000587.2012.07799.x (in the press). 7. Loarie, S.R. etal. Nature 462, 2431 (2009). 8. Godet, L., Ja r, M. & Devictor, V. Biol. Lett. 7, 714717 (2011). 9. Kampichler, C. etal. PLoS One 7, e35272 (2012).

Acknowledgements

We thank Ccile Albert for stimulating comments on the importance of intraspeci c variability and its consequences. We also thank Francisco Rodrguez-Snchez and colleagues for initiating this thought-provoking discussion.

COMMENTARY:

Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows

How climate change science is conducted, communicated and translated into policy must be radically transformed if dangerous climate change is to be averted.
ith the Rio+20 conference on sustainable development now over, it remains unclear how much attention policymakers, businesses and the public paid to scienti c analyses of climate change. A question also remains as to how impartial, objective and direct scientists were in presenting their evidence; politicians may well have le Rio without understanding the viability and implications of proposed lowcarbonpathways. We urgently need to acknowledge that the development needs of many countries leave the rich western nations with little choice but to immediately and severely curb their greenhouse gas emissions1,2. But academics may again have contributed to a misguided belief that commitments to avoid warming of 2C can still be realized with incremental adjustments to economic incentives. A carbon tax here, a little emissions trading there and the odd voluntary agreement thrown in for good measure will not be su cient. Scientists may argue that it is not our responsibility anyway and that it is politicians who are really to blame. e scienti c community can meet next year to communicate its latest model results and reiterate how climate change commitments and economic growth go hand in hand. Many policymakers (and some scientists) believe that yet another year will not matter in the grand scheme of things, but this overlooks the fundamental tenet of climate science: emissions are cumulative. Long-term and end-point targets (for example, 80% by 2050) have no scienti c basis. What governs future global temperatures and other adverse climate impacts are the emissions from yesterday, today and those released in the next few years. Delaying an agreement on

meaningful cuts to emissions increases the risk of exposing many already vulnerable communities to higher temperatures and worsening climate-related impacts. Yet, behind the cosy rhetoric of naively optimistic science and policy, there is little to suggest that existing mitigation proposals will deliver anything but rising emissions over the coming decade or two.

Hope and judgement

ere are many reasons why climate science has become intertwined with politics, to the extent that providing impartial scienti c analysis is increasingly challenging and challenged. On a personal level, scientists are human too. Many have chosen to research climate change because they believe there is value in applying scienti c rigour to an important global issue. It is not surprising then that they also hope that it is still possible to avoid dangerous
639

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 2 | SEPTEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

Changing the context: acLon at emergency speed & scale Time is short, the crisis is now There is a chance for a beuer world, but in short run it is A choice between 2 dystopias (discomfort now or more later) Some very signicant social and economic disrupBons now while we make the transiBon very quickly Or a state of permanent and escalaBng disrupBon as the planets climate heads into territory where most people and most species will not survive Our task now is to chart the least-worst outcome; This will not be painless, and people will need to acBvely understand and parBcipate in some personally-disrupBve measures, but they will do so because they have learned that the transiBon plans are both fair and necessary, and the other choice is unspeakable

POLITICAL PARADIGM

ScienLsts stand up The scienBsts have lost paBence with our carefully constructed messages being lost in the poliBcal noise. And we are now prepared to stand up and say enough is enough. Prof. Kevin Anderson We need a (sort of) global-scale eort on this that is akin to preparing for a war, actually. Prof. Mau England We are not dealing with it (climate) in terms of the danger that this represents: its like a war. Dr Daniel Pauly. "We have a crisis, an emergency, but people don't know that ...There's a big gap between what's understood about global warming by the scienBc community & what is known by the public & policymakers. Dr James Hansen Virtually all of us (scienBsts) are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and present danger to civilizaBon. Dr Lonnie Thompson

POLITICAL PARADIGM

Our tasks: A sober assessment of our situaLon Make the poliBcs t the science, dont water down the science to t the poliBcs Tell the big story, set out to fully solve the problem Courageous, consistent public leadership for a safe climate Understand that policy is an outcome of power, not a means of achieving it Common goals Local mobilisaBon, united acBon Connect to conservaBve voters Making climate an issue about now, not the future (connect the dots) Honesty about our task Flexibility and opportunity

POLITICALTASKS

SPEED & SCALE OF ACTION

We respond well to an emergency, but global warming is an emergency too.

The Age editorial, 16 January 2011

"This is an emergency and for emergency situaBons we need emergency acBon. UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon, November 12, 2007