ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS | KAMLOOPS BC

ROUNDABOUT COMMUNICATIONS KAMLOOPS,BC,CANADA

Summary Last month Roundabout Communications released a very low tech basic version of our Electoral Projector. We don't claim this version to be high tech but we have added some new wrinkles, an explanation of our methodology and some commentary. We also added a few shiny new objects for your viewing pleasure. Projections are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included, and the unpredictable nature of politics. These projections are intended for entertainment, and to induce discussion and debate. The projections are not meant for gambling or campaigning purposes. Regards, Chad Moats Owner

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Projection Methodology Roundabout Communications compiles a Poll of Polls for the Electoral Projector. Most polling firms breakdown respondents by region. Therefore, Roundabout as divided our Poll of Polls into the following Regions of BC: Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North

Below is a graph showing all the polls included with final date each poll was in the field and sample size. The bar indicates the weight of each poll out of one (1).
Value of each poll used in projection
Sept 18,2012 - Ipsos 1008 Oct 10,2012 Angus Reid Nov. 22,2012 Angus Reid 800 800 Value

Nov 30,2012 - Ipsos 1000 Jan 18,2013 -Angus Reid 802 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Each poll's n , or number of respondents/ sample size, is divided by the total number of respondents to get the Initial Weight for each poll in the projector. A Time Penalty is then assessed based on time elasped since last day of most recent poll. A Subjective amount that reduces the value of a single poll over time. Roundabout uses a 0.013 reduction of each poll's weighted value as a percentage of total N per week. Each week is counted back from the last day of the most recent poll and rounded to nearest week. The algorithm is: (Weight of Poll's N Time Penalty ) x Poll N = Real Weight This value is then applied to each poll for each regions results. Applying Poll of Polls to Constituency Projections. Each Regional Poll of Polls is applied to each constituency result from the 2009 Election. In the cases of Vancouver-Point Grey,Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam have all had by-elections. These results have been applied to the projection at a weight of .333, with 2009 results being weighted at .666. The reasoning for having by-election results weight lower are due to a few factors that include lower voter turn out, poor track record of incumbent governments in by-elections. However, being the most recent results can not be completely ignored, and must be included in the projection. In the case of the four (4) Independent incumbent MLAs. A general rule is applied to Incumbent MLAs that are running again but have left there party since the 2009 election. There are currently 3 of those in the BC Legislature. They have been awarded 60% of their 2009 results as a member of a party. This effects Abbotsford South and Cariboo North. The Independent in Delta South won as an Independent in 2009. The new Independent in BoundarySimilkameen has currently stated that he will not seek another term.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Bonuses One of our readers suggested that local bonuses for Star Candidates, Leaders and Incumbents could enhance constituency level projections. We've included in this month's projection. Incumbent Bonus : +15% of projected total Applied to all incumbents. Party Leader Bonus: +20% Applied to Vancouver-Point Grey(Liberal),Vancouver-Kingsway (NDP),Langley(Conservative) and Victoria-Beacon Hill (Green) Star Candidate Bonus: +30% Applied to Langley(Conservative) and Oak Bay-Gordon Head (Green) Projection Changes from December 2012 Province wide % changes

Provincial Results BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green BC Conservative IND Total

Seats Change Vote % Change 27 +6 33% +3% 54 -7 48% 0 8% 0 10% -3% 4 +1 2% 85

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Regional changes

Northern BC Seats Change Vote % Change Lower Mainland Seats Change Vote % BC Liberal 17 +3 33% BC Liberal 1 - 31% +3% BC NDP 25 -3 47% BC NDP 6 - 47% -1% BC Green 0 - 7% BC Green 0 - 10% +1% - 11% BC Conservative 0 - 10% -5% BC Conservative 0 IND 2 - 2% IND 1 - 3% 0% Total 44 Total 8

Change +1% -1% 0% -2% 0%

Interior BC BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green BC Conservative IND Total

Seats 7 10 0 0 1 18

Change Vote % Change +2 36% +5% -3 42% - 9% +1% - 11% -6% +1 2% -1%

Vancouver Island BC Liberal BC NDP BC Green BC Conservative IND Total

Seats Change Vote % 2 +1 28% 13 -1 52% 0 - 12% 0 8% 0 1% 15

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Constituency Level Results

Northern BC Nechako Lakes North Coast Peace River North Peace River South Prince George-Mackenzie Prince George-Valemount Skeena Stikine

BC Lib 39% 16% 32% 44% 40% 35% 17% 24%

BC NDP BC Green BC Con 40% 9% 10% 65% 11% 8% 24% 0% 10% 34% 10% 11% 42% 10% 7% 43% 9% 12% 61% 6% 14% 61% 7% 7%

Ind

34%

Interior BC Columbia River-Revelstoke Kootenay East Kootenay West Nelson-Creston Boundary-Similkameen Kelowna-Lake Country Kelowna-Mission Penticton Shuswap Vernon-Monashee Westside-Kelowna Cariboo-Chilcotin Cariboo North Fraser-Nicola Kamloops-North Thompson Kamloops-South Thompson Chilliwack-Hope Chilliwack

BC BC Lib BC NDP Green BC Con Ind 37% 63% 7% 4% 46% 37% 4% 14% 12% 74% 10% 4% 21% 62% 7% 10% 28% 37% 10% 25% 47% 29% 7% 15% 48% 28% 8% 16% 35% 35% 16% 5% 38% 35% 12% 15% 27% 30% 15% 16% 48% 31% 8% 13% 39% 51% 6% 5% 35% 23% 0% 5% 38% 31% 56% 7% 6% 41% 45% 7% 6% 45% 39% 7% 9% 24% 49% 6% 20% 39% 31% 10% 21%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Lower Mainland BC Abbotsford-Mission Abbotsford South Abbotsford West Fort Langley-Aldergrove Langley Maple Ridge-Mission Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Surrey-Cloverdale Surrey-Fleetwood Surrey-Green Timbers Surrey-Newton Surrey-Panorama Surrey-Tynehead Surrey-Whalley Surrey-White Rock Delta North Delta South Richmond Centre Richmond East Richmond-Steveston Burnaby-Deer Lake Burnaby-Edmonds Burnaby-Lougheed Burnaby North Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Coquitlam-Maillardville New Westminster Port Coquitlam Port Moody-Coquitlam Vancouver-Fairview Vancouver-False Creek Vancouver-Fraserview Vancouver-Hastings Vancouver-Kensington Vancouver-Kingsway Vancouver-Langara Vancouver-Mount Pleasant Vancouver-Point Grey Vancouver-Quilchena Vancouver-West End North Vancouver-Lonsdale North Vancouver-Seymour West Vancouver-Capilano West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

BC Liberal 42% 16% 42% 48% 41% 27% 29% 46% 22% 8% 9% 38% 36% 9% 49% 25% 24% 45% 45% 47% 27% 20% 32% 32% 44% 28% 18% 20% 34% 34% 40% 33% 15% 22% 18% 46% 4% 45% 53% 15% 36% 46% 54% 38%

NDP 39% 27% 36% 34% 38% 53% 53% 36% 27% 79% 75% 46% 49% 75% 31% 56% 17% 35% 36% 31% 58% 61% 51% 51% 39% 54% 62% 64% 51% 46% 34% 51% 65% 62% 68% 39% 73% 41% 27% 66% 41% 31% 19% 29%

Green 9% 7% 5% 6% 6% 7% 5% 7% 6% 3% 5% 5% 4% 6% 8% 4% 0% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 8% 4% 4% 9% 13% 4% 9% 6% 3% 5% 12% 6% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 21%

BC Conserv ative 10% 14% 16% 10% 14% 10% 10% 10% 15% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 14% 9% 10% 10% 14% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10% 12% 10% 9% 9% 8% 10% 9% 7% 10% 9% 13% 13% 12% 10%

IND 34%

48%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Vancouver Island Alberni-Pacific Rim Comox Valley Cowichan Valley Nanaimo Nanaimo-North Cowichan North Island Parksville-Qualicum Esquimalt-Royal Roads Juan de Fuca Oak Bay-Gordon Head Saanich North and the Islands Saanich South Victoria-Beacon Hill Victoria-Swan Lake Powell River-Sunshine Coast

BC Liberal 22% 11% 26% 26% 25% 29% 43% 21% 24% 41% 37% 35% 17% 17% 30%

NDP 62% 67% 51% 57% 57% 55% 38% 56% 60% 40% 44% 50% 58% 53% 58%

BC Conserv ative Green 8% 7% 14% 7% 13% 10% 10% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 11% 7% 17% 7% 9% 7% 13% 7% 13% 7% 8% 7% 17% 7% 13% 7% 5% 5%

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Projection Analysis The January 2013 BC Election Projectors results may look like some big gains for the BC Liberals. Though some of the changes are due to some changes in methodology outlined early. The fact seems to be that the BC Liberals are trending up with voters. This leads to some very interesting questions on the projection and the possible outcome of the May 2013 election. Though it is not possible to cover them all, we hope that the ones that are covered stimulate debate. Rush of Independents With recent upheavals in both major provincial political parties within the last few years. The current situation with Independent candidates is quite unique. Two of the cases involve popular local incumbents taking principled stands. While The Peace River North and Delta South involve unique electorates with strong populist streaks. Can they become beachheads for a nonpartisan politics for BC? It is very doubtful but anything is possible. However this scenario is improbable. Can the BC Conservatives elect an MLA? The projector will give the Conservatives, the equivalent of what there gain in polls has been . This is applied to their 2009 votes. In many cases for the Conservatives in 2009 that result was zero, as they did run a full slate. The projector will then give them the equivalent percentage gain in votes from zero. This makes it difficult to predict the Conservatives. Any movements not picked up by the major polling firms will not be reflected by the projector. That said. The BC Conservative Party's Top 5 Best Chance at electing an MLA are: Boundary-Similkameen Chilliwack-Hope Chilliwack Langley Vernon-Monashee

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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Close Races by Region North: Nechako Lakes and Peace River North Interior: Pentiction, Shuswap,Vernon Monshee and Cariboo North Lower Mainland: Vancouver-Point Grey, Langley, and CoquitlamBurke Mountain Vancouver Island: Oak Bay-Gordon Head and Saanich North Races tightening up by Region North: Prince George-Mackenzie Interior: Kamloops-North Thompson and Boundary-Similkameen Lower Mainland:: North Vancouver-Lonsdale Vancouver Island: N/A Can BC Liberals catch BC NDP? While the BC Liberal's are making up ground. They would have to win all the close and tight races. This is an unlikely prospect given that the BC NDP have camped out in the high 40% range for quite sometime. In our view this can be attributed to swing voters camping out with the BC NDP. They seem to have made up their minds months ago. Couple the BC NDP stability with the Premier's dismal approval ratings and it will be difficult to make up ground in short time left with a weak leader. It is Roundabout's opinion that there is a stronger possibility of a BC Conservative surge then a BC Liberal comeback.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra

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For Further Information Contact: Chad Moats,Owner mailto:roundaboutcommunications@gmail.com?subject=Further Information Click for our Facebook Page

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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra