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Cohort Analysis

Kupper L L, Janis J M, Salama I A, Yoshizawa C N, Greenberg war; East–West Conflict: Confrontation and DeT tente
E 1983 Age-period-cohort analysis: An illustration of the expresses the ambiguity, but this label is less eye-
problems in assessing interaction in one observation per cell catching.
data. Commun. Statist.–Theor. Meth. 12: 2779–807
Mason W M, Fienberg S E (eds.) 1985 Cohort Analysis in Social
Research: Beyond the Identification Problem. Springer Verlag,
New York 1. The Concept and its Salience
Mason W M, Smith H L 1985 Age-period-cohort analysis and The persistent central features of the Cold War are the
the study of deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis. In: Mason
W M, Fienberg S E (eds.) Cohort Analysis in Social Research:
global contest between the US and the USSR, the
Beyond the Identification Problem. Springer Verlag, New dependence of the allies on the security guarantee of
York, pp. 151–227 their respective superpower, and bipolarity. The latter
Miller A S, Nakamura T 1996 On the stability of church was reinforced in the core area, the arms race, due to
attendance patterns during a time of demographic change: the widening gap between the extensive and highly
1965–1988. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 35: diversified weapons systems of the superpowers and
275–84 the arsenals of Britain, France, and the Peoples’
Nakamura T 1986 Bayesian cohort models for general cohort Republic of China (PRCh), the other three established
table analyses. Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 38: 353–70 nuclear powers. This explains that American and
Nı! Bhrolcha! in M 1992 Period paramount? A critique of the
cohort approach in fertility. Pop. De. Re. 18: 599–629
Russian writings hold to Cold War as a concept fitting
Ploch D R, Hastings D W 1994 Graphic presentations of church the entire epoch. It allows for distinguishing between
attendance using general social survey data. Journal for the moments of imminent war—Cuba, October 1962, and
Scientific Study of Religion 33: 16–33 Yom Kippur war, October 1973—times of high
Robertson C, Boyle P 1998a Age-period-cohort models of tensions and war outside Europe—Korea, 1950–53;
chronic disease rates. I: Modeling approach. Statistics in Vietnam, 1964–75; Afghanistan, 1979–88—long inter-
Medicine 17: 1305–23 vals of deT tente, and even moments of concerted crisis
Robertson C, Boyle P 1998b Age-period-cohort models of management (June 1967 Near East war) or collab-
chronic disease rates. II: Graphical approaches. Statistics in oration (during the Laos crisis and Vietnam war in the
Medicine 17: 1325–39
Robertson C, Gandini S, Boyle P 1999 Age-period-cohort
1960s and ending wars in Africa in the late 1980s).
models: A comparative study of available methodologies. This version pays less attention to the fact that
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 52: 569–83 throughout the four decades not all parties to the Cold
Ryder N B 1965 The cohort as a concept in the study of social War were involved on the same issue-at-stake and at
change. Am. Sociol. Re. 30: 843–61 the same time. France joined Britain (UK) and the US
Sasaki M, Suzuki T 1987 Changes in religious commitment in in 1948 in founding the West German state as the
the United States, Holland, and Japan. American Journal of Western allies’ response to Stalin’s anchoring of
Sociology 92: 1055–76 Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Czecho-
Sasaki M, Suzuki T 1989 A caution about the data to be used for slovakia firmly into the Soviet security-zone, and
cohort analysis: Reply to Glenn. American Journal of Sociology
95: 761–5
maintained staunch opposition to proposals for a
The BUGS Project 2000 http:\\www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk\bugs\ neutralized, but nationally rearmed united Germany
Welch F 1979 The effects of cohort size on earnings: The baby (Hitchcock 1998). Since the mid-1960s, France became
boom babies financial bust. Journal of Politics and Economics the spokesman for a Europe less dependent on the US
87: 565–97 and discussing terms of settlement with ‘Russia.’ The
Wilmoth J R 1990 Variation in vital rates by age, period, and Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) converted Cold
cohort. Sociological Methodology 20: 295–335 War into cold peace with the ratification of Ost- und
DeutschlandertraW ge (1970–3). Both governments co-
W. M. Mason and N. H. Wolfinger operated in defending deT tente in and for Europe; by
implication, this aspiration for a European peace-zone
rejected the American concept of the indivisibility of
the global contest between East and West. The PRCh,
Cold War, The the only principal ally the USSR ever had (1950–58\9),
made its peace with the US in 1972 on Pejing’s term of
The term is widely accepted in historical writings. It ‘One China.’ While the PRCh had provoked the US
refers to the epoch between 1947–8 and 1989–90. The during the 1950s to continuous nuclear sabre-rattling,
nature of the Cold War, its causes and effects, and the it turned its antihegemonic posture throughout the
reasons for its long duration are, however, contro- 1970s and 1980s against the USSR.
versial. Its meaning would exclude Asia because of the
outbreak of wars there; the wars in Korea, Vietnam,
1.1 The Components of the Term
and Afghanistan made a difference to how the United
States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR), the two The definition refers to four aspects of the conflict: (a)
superpowers, waged their global contest in Europe. the ideological antagonism between the Western con-
The situation in Europe resembled neither peace nor cept of freedom of choice for the people of the domestic

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Cold War, The

regime and external alignments of their state and the the rescue and infuse capital into the European
Soviet-imposed monopoly of the ‘workers’ and land- economics as the only strategy which could render
labor party and subjugation to the community of support to the parties willing to exclude Communists
socialist states; (b) the geostrategic struggle for bases from governments (Lundestad 1986). The formation
of power-projection; (c) the domestic political contest, of Western-oriented governing coalitions ensured that
but almost exclusively within Western countries, about the European allies, as well as Japan, cooperated with
commitments to the military alliance or equidistance the US in the evolution of the International Economy,
to both of the superpowers; (d) the dispute about to which the USSR and the PRCh were not negotiating
where to draw the line between permissible and parties after the outbreak of the Cold War. Most allies
noncompatible elements in the policy mix of market- did not comply, however, with the American demand
oriented and government-controlled economies. Of to restrict ‘trading with the communist enemy,’ except
these four components, the last became least im- in conspicious moments of Soviet war activities.
portant for refueling the confrontation; the conver- The ideological component became a wasted asset
gence of the mixed economies rather promoted the after its overexploitation during the first phase (1947–
idea that Osthandel, credit facilities, and technology 53). Khrushchev’s condemnation of Stalin’s death toll
transfer might enhance not only ‘liberalization’ in the in February 1956 and the NATO allies’ perception
East European economies, but also generate trans- that the Kremlin was unlikely to launch a general war
formation of the political system. on European territory (1956\7) put a break on the
momentum of ideology as a driving force in the
East–West conflict. But it was on the Kremlin to end
1.2 The Ideological Antagonism
the system conflict. In 1987 Gorbachev rescinded the
The ideological antagonism was the first impulse for Breshnev doctrine and made it known that hardliners
confrontation, but it was also subject to changing in Eastern European governments should not reckon
threat perceptions and shifts of emphasis in the with Moscow calling on the Red Army to back up
balance between confrontation and deT tente in the unpopular communist regimes (Adomeit 1998).
overall relationship. The wider notion of East–West
Conflict posits the Cold War as a distinctive period
into the ideological struggle, originated in 1917–18, 1.3 The Long Duration of the Cold War
between the Wilsonian Impulse and Lenin’s urge for For explaining the longevity of the Cold War, the
peoples’ democracy as the basis for securing peace account therefore has to focus on the other two factors:
(Link 1980). From this perspective, Stalin and Truman the structures which emerged with the consolidation
likewise took the lead in splitting the world along and reaffirmation of the divisions of Europe and of
‘alternative ways of life.’ Western leaders argued that Germany, and the pecularities of the military–
the West had to learn its lessons from the vain hope to geostrategic balance between the two sides.
appease an expansionist regime. ‘No more Munichs’
informed the confrontation stance of containment as
the West’s answer to the external threat. The con- 1.3.1 The diisions of Europe and Germany. The
comitant stance at the home-front is based on the key feature is the hinge between the two diisions.
thesis that authoritarian regimes abuse state-power The stark contrast between Stalin’s refusal to con-
against large parts of their own population; therefore sider concessions on Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania
Communists must not be given a chance to occupy in exchange for American economic assistance and
crucial positions of government such as Interior, his demand to have a say on questions concerning
Public Transport, or Justice. primarily intra-West relations, e.g., the status of the
Conversely, Communist ideology maintained that Ruhr area or of Norway, provoked the US and the
capitalism on the one hand inspires the state to UK to tie their zones firmly to Western institutions
prosecute the working-class and thus breeds fascism, (Deighton 1990). The implementation of this basic
and on the other hand is inherently expansionist and strategy was, however, complicated by clashes of
therefore knows no boundary to its domination. The interest between the US, France, and Britain. These
belief, however, that capitalist nations are bound to tensions prevented them from advancing as far as the
fight for defeating rivals, made Stalin expect that USSR had with incorporating its German state, the
Britain would resist the US’ aspiration to become heir GDR, into the Soviet Empire. Hence they could not,
to the British Empire. The new feature of the post- as wanted, negotiate from a position of strength, but
World War II international system is that the US and expected to be asked to give away on what ‘the West’
the UK were competitive partners in founding the did not yet have, whereas the USSR would persist in
International Organizations destined to develop and its refusal to put its reign over Eastern Europe on the
monitor rules of conduct for international trade, agenda. The stalemate was compounded, when the
currency exchange, and development aid (Gardner reimposition of the Ulbricht regime in 1953 revealed
1969). The UK and France, but also Italy, expected that the Kremlin considered the GDR as its west-side
the up-to-then reluctant US government to come to lever for control over Poland and Czechoslovakia.

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Cold War, The

The structural impediment to a negotiated settle- bloc partners’ central agencies: the State Party, Secret
ment disappeared when Moscow tacitly bowed to Service, and top military echelon. The USSR also
Germany’s entry into NATO (1955) and when the made sure through logistic measures that the Soviet
‘West’ acknowledged the fact that the USSR was military could operate from its allies’ territory inde-
strong enough to prevail in Eastern Europe (1956). pendently, and if need be without the consent of the
German Ostpolitik put the final stamp to the ‘norma- incumbent governments (Wolfe 1970).
tivity of the facts.’ On this platform, the so-called The military imbalance between NATO-Europe and
Helsinki process, the Conference on Security and the USSR existed throughout 1947 until the mid-
Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), lingered on through- 1980s. The US found no takers—except the FRG
out the 1973–89 period. Neither side was ready to from 1961 onwards—for its concept of balanced
proceed towards peace-making. collective forces in the sense that the US were the sole
The Cold War might have ended earlier if provider of strategic forces, that is, weaponry pro-
Gorbachev’s predecessors had responded to the US jected to hitting targets located in the USSR, whereas
view that Germany’s double-bind into a US-centered the allies would recruit the ground forces and tactical
NATO and European integrated structures would air forces required for the defense of the region against
prevent Germany from positing a threat to the security infiltration or surprise attacks. Britain and France
of the USSR (Schmidt 1993–5). Instead, Moscow’s preferred to duplicate the US strategic role, albeit on a
attempts to push the divisiveness of nuclear diplomacy much minor scale, and took the relaxation of tensions
within NATO rather than wait for the outcome of in Europe and their entanglement in the legacies of
such conflicts provoked the ‘Atlanticists’ to close ranks their imperial rule as the rationale for reducing their
and reiterate the standard thesis that the West could force assignments to NATO.
prevent the USSR from winning the Cold War if its
members resisted the temptation to court Moscow and
make separate deals with the USSR. The Soviet 2. The Intersection of Economic and Strategic
leadership’s ‘stupidity’ is said to have saved the US or Decisions: The European Structure
NATO to get rearmament projects—such as NSC-68
or the 1979 dual-track decision—through. The failure of the ‘Big Four’ to cooperate on a German
Peace Treaty is identified as a crucial turning point
towards the Cold War (Leffler 1992). Stalin did not
1.3.2 The peculiarities of the military–geostrategic want to give the impression that the US, thanks to the
balance. The key feature is the fundamental asym- atomic bomb and its economic wealth, could impose
metry between the nature of America’s and Russia’s its will on the USSR; he therefore pressed his claims on
predominance in their respective sphere. This asym- Iran, Turkey, during the Peace Conferences with
metry is reinforced by the imbalance of military Germany’s war-time allies and in the Allied Control
forces between NATO-Europe and the USSR’s Council. This in turn was taken in Washington as a
forward deployed forces (Kugler 1993). signal that hope of Russian cooperation must be
The advantage of the US in its global contest with abandoned. Truman and Byrnes had been reluctant to
the USSR was that all other principal powers, in- confront the USSR when the Cold War started over
cluding Germany and Japan, were allied to the US. the fate of Eastern European nations (1944–7). Now,
This helped in the build-up of the international in view of the havoc the 1946–7 crisis wreaked on the
economy, but not necessarily in defense. Conse- economies of Britain and France, the US government
quently, US diplomacy was absorbed as much in intra- conceived that Western Europe could not save itself
West crisis management as in the context of East–West (Hogan 1992).
relations. The allies wanted to be assured that there From there on, the ‘West’ displayed a dynamic of its
were no long-term security risks involved for them in own. The first act was that the economic recovery of
America’s option for sponsoring the resurgence of the Europe was said to require the inclusion of (West)
enemies and occupiers of World War II as strongholds Germany; the price for getting France to change its
of the West. Having imposed limits on Germany’s and German policy was the assurance that the US and the
Japan’s military status, the US could not reckon with UK would back up the French quest for security
a defense contribution for some years to come; both against a resurgent Germany. The second act followed:
were prohibited to engage in ‘out-of-area’ defense Britain and France pleaded with Washington that the
activities (Schmidt and Doran 1996). Marshall Plan initiative would not suffice to attain
By contrast, the USSR gained a formidable ally in stability without an American security guarantee.
the PRCh, who was keen to test the credibility of the Against the background of the Berlin blockade,
American commitment to South Korea and Taiwan. Truman in October 1948 ordered that the US provide
Although the USSR copied the West’s community the major counterbalance to the ‘ever-present threat of
building by setting up COMECON (1949) and the the Soviet military power.’ In September 1948, the
Warsaw Treaty Organisation 1955, the Kremlin relied Brussels Treaty Organization (BTO) had already
for exerting influence de facto on the penetration of the resolved that the defense of Western Europe should be

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Cold War, The

as far to the east (of West Germany) as possible. Russia, but he and his successors insisted on having at
Because this was beyond the means available to the least a crucial German vote in all decisions on the use
BTO and not yet compatible with the military strategy of nonstrategic weapons in NATO’s custody in case
of American and British defense planning, it was only deterrence to all types of war failed (Heuser 1998,
a question of developments in the Cold War that the Trachtenberg 1999).
third issue be placed on the agenda: German re- This final act of incorporating the two German
armament. The logic behind the build-up of con- states into alliances dominated by the nuclear-strategic
ventional forces sounded compelling: why do the old superpowers had a far-reaching effect: plastering the
allies expect the US to provide ground and air forces ‘front-line’ states with short-range atomic weapons
and the Supreme Allied Commander to NATO’s was the best insurance premium that the Germans
integrated forces with a view to realize the concept of would not launch war from their soil (Ullman 1991). As
forward defense when they deny the indispensibility of long as the US and USSR stationed troops there and
a sensible German defense contribution, on whose resolved to maintain control over the warheads, the
territory the French in particular wanted to stop the danger of accidental war could be excluded. The
enemy’s offensive? At that time, however, all the US parallel to the military factor written into the strategic
military could offer was an air offensive to deter the landscape is the interest of the Western nuclear powers
USSR; they did not yet want to rely on ‘the bomb’ in confirming the status quo and discuss on that
(Ross), and the USSR had acquired by then (Fall territorial basis the questions of putting ceilings on
1949) an atomic capability. rearmament. Separately, the two German states re-
The outbreak of the Korean War generated the fear launched their rivalry and demanded (1955–73) allies
of a similar war-by-proxy in divided Germany. The and Third World countries alike to subscribe to the
US did not only reverse its stance on what countries Alleinertretungsanspruch of the Western democratic
were of absolute importance to US security by now or peoples’ democratic German republic.
declaring Korea the test case of what became the
domino syndrome, that no US ally should fall prey to
a Communist invader, but also designated the 3. The History of the Concept, Major
National Security Paper NSC-68 as the platform for a Deelopments, and Empirical Results
massive conventional rearmament of the US, adequate
force deployment abroad and military aid to upgrade The invention of the term is accredited to Walter
the defense capabilities of its European and Asian Lippmann who took issue with G. F. Kennan’s ‘X’-
allies (May 1993). article ‘Sources of Soviet Conduct.’ Kennan’s long
The issue of German rearmament was divisive, but telegram of February 22, 1946 molded the agenda of
the US compromised with France on the understand- America’s containment policy. His arguments were
ing that German forces be integrated into a European selectively used by top officials in Washington to assert
Defense Community (EDC), whereas the EDC would that the ‘Soviets’ will develop all means and methods
delegate strategic planning and fixing force require- ranging from threat of military aggression via propa-
ments to NATO. The project became the victim of ganda warfare to clandestine activities to a degree
French domestic politics; the US and the UK had to without precedent in history. Therefore, the US had
comply with the French request that no German to strengthen its executive branch, introduce a
soldier be officially recruited until France had ratified national security policy, establish a professional
the EDC and German Contractual Agreements. The intelligence agency, and develop an unassailable mili-
demise of the EDC meant that Washington had to tary–industrial base (Leffler 1992, Paterson 1979).
forego the hope that US force deployment would be a The opposite Communist view emphasizes three
temporary stop-gap until the European allies, and aspects: the economic aggressiveness of the long-
especially the FRG, were able to do more towards standing hegemonic US project to attain a ‘one-world
meeting NATO’s minimum force requirements. market’ and abuse of the open-door doctrine for
The parallel staged fourth act (1952–4) produced penetrating other nations’ economy; the manipulation
the definitie structure of the Cold War in Europe: the of anti-communism as a club to suppress claims for
NATO, to which the FRG was finally admitted, had social justice and equality of rights within the Ameri-
made itself dependent on the credibility of the US (and can and other Western capitalist systems; and
UK) strategic deterrent. This provoked the issue how America’s acquisition of bases bordering on the USSR
the USSR would react to the logic that NATO’s new for purposes of encirclement and monitoring inside
member would have to be equipped with the same the USSR. In geostrategic terms the US became a direct
weaponry as the allied forces into which the Ger- neighbor of the USSR, whereas the USSR required
man divisions were to be incorporated. Chancellor long-distance bombers (it introduced such jets by
Adenauer made it clear that the FRG did not want 1955) and Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM)
to provoke Moscow unnecessarily by dislocating to show the US its vulnerability. The strong engage-
medium-range ballistic missiles on German soil, whose ment of the US in the post-1990 contests about
later replacements might be able to hit targets in Caucasian and Middle East oil and gas concessions

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Cold War, The

and pipeline routes indicates that the US–USSR financial means provided under the Marshall Plan,
rivalry did not end with the Cold War. Milward (1984) presents the thesis of the rescue of the
The ‘Revisionists’ (LaFeber 1991, Paterson 1979) nation-state. His complex argument also draws on the
disclaim that Stalin pursued an offensive strategy observation that at that time the West did not reckon
aiming at extending Soviet rule; they discern rather the with an immediate Soviet threat. The implication is
US’ responsibility for causing the Cold War. The that an unwarranted haste was imposed on a process
postrevisionist approach accounts for the Soviet as- which in any case depended on what the European
pect of the fundamental change in the Cold War since countries did to and for another, formally, US
about 1954–5, and explains the US interest in deT tente, assistance was tied to the Uniting of (Western) Europe
i.e., the coinciding interest in Long Peace (Gaddis and to parallel bilateral agreements between the US
1987). Moscow settled the Austrian question, tolerated and the recipient country.
the FRG’s entry into NATO, and opted for rec-
onciliation with Tito, the only East European leader
who had got away with breaking ranks with Stalin. 3.2 Competitie Cooperation Between the
The cumulation point was the declaration of the Superpowers
doctrine of peaceful co-existence. The Western allies’
By the end of the 1960s, researchers discerned the
match was tacit satisfaction with consolidating the
convergence of five developments which demonstrated
status quo after they had absorbed the FRG. Stability
the continuing relevance of the ‘competitive coop-
in Europe turned the UK’s, US’s, and France’s
eration’ between the superpowers for the changing
attention to the Third World. In reaction to Com-
structures of the Cold War: (a) Soviet policy shifted
munist China’s revolutionary foreign policy, the
towards accepting the US’s and Canada’s presence in
Soviet leadership in 1960 declared wars of liberation
Germany; (b) German Ostpolitik presumed the en-
from colonial rule legitimate and thus distinguished
gagement of the US in NATO; (c) de Gaulle realized in
peaceful co-existence in the developed world from just
the context of the Prague 1968 crisis that Breshnev’s
wars in the ‘southern’ part of the globe. In this sense,
Russia was no party to his vision that dissolving Cold
the East–West conflict was exported to the Third
War structures in the West, i.e., France’s disengage-
World.
ment from NATO’s military organization, might
The US resolved on noninterference in the internal
induce ‘Russia’ to allow for more evolution of national
affairs of the Soviet bloc and relaxation of tensions.
communist and then independent states in Eastern
The US was somewhat dependent on Russia’s re-
Europe; (d) the US embroilment in the Vietnam war
sistance to become the air and nuclear strategic arm of
caused a change in the intellectual climate; the abuse
Pejing’s violent anti-American activities in the Far
of the USSR being the cause of every evil became
East. The emerging picture is that the US, in parallel
obsolete; instead the US became the villain in the
with the Berlin and Cuba crises (1958–62), wanted to
piece; (e) new developments in arms technology—e.g.,
concert the superpowers’ activities in China’s ‘hin-
high-precision weaponry as a substitute for atomic
terland’ (former ‘Indochina’) in the sense that both
weapons; MIRV-technique; antiballistic missiles—
exert pressure on the parties to a conflict amenable to
were beyond Britain’s and France’s capability to
their respective influence and through such agreement
follow on; this reinforced NATO Europe’s self-elected
attain the neutralization of the conflict area, including
dependency on the US with respect to security and
the instalment of all-party or power-sharing coalition
defense (Hanrieder 1989).
governments, however unstable (Nelson 1995).
Renewed US pressures on its allies to extend their
conventional military capabilities and share the bur-
3.1 European Perspecties on the Cold War dens for the ‘Defense of the West’ more evenly, the re-
escalation of the strategic arms race between the
A different strand in the history of the concept is the
superpowers under the aegis of limitation treaties, and
perception of the impact of the other Western powers,
the evidence presented by German Ostpolitik that
especially Britain and France, on how the struggle was
negotiations with Russia generate tolerable results,
waged (Greenwood 2000, Bozo 1991). The contri-
combined to raise the basic questions: what are the
bution is twofold: (a) the Cold War is viewed as a new
costs of the ongoing Cold War? on what terms could
stage in great power rivalry. These studies stress the
the conflict be ended and converted into politico-
Europeans’ interest in devoting resources to restoring
economic competition? (Garthoff 1985).
or preserving their assets and commitments overseas
(Kent 1993, Bossuat 1992). (b) The second contri-
bution takes a different direction: it challenges the
3.3 From the Second Cold War to the End of the
assumption that Western Europe by 1947–8 was in
Cold War
such a critical state that the leading nations had to
‘invite’ the US to reconstruct and protect Western The USSR, after getting Germany’s pledge to observe
Europe. Examining the economic potential of the the invulnerability of the territorial status quo in
European nations and how their governments used the Europe, revived the global contest with the US, which

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Cold War, The

was immersed in domestic turbulences and disputes of the concomitant events in the politico-strategic
with all its allies about oil and the dollar. The Kremlin (military) sphere, where the USSR appeared to be the
demonstrated its self-confidence by expanding Soviet winner, but then ended the Cold War on western
naval forces and establishing bases, however short- terms.
lived, stretching from Vietnam via Mozambique,
Somalia, and Angola to Central America. In contrast
to the 1950–3 period, the US catchword ‘arch of crises’ 5. Future Direction of Research
did not resonate well with its allies. The latter wanted
to develop deT tente, notwithstanding the fear, expressed ‘East’ and ‘West’ waged the struggle by all means and
by German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in 1977, that methods except ‘hot’ war in the area stretching from
the Soviets’ new equipment (Backfire bombers; SS-20) Vancouver to Wladivostok. Hence, research must
made NATO Europe hostage to the Kremlin’s whip of attend to different subject areas and to the expertise
the will. This raised the question whether the USSR developed in the many scholarly communities. Some
was about to win the Cold War or whether the Kremlin areas of research, e.g., diplomatic or intellectual
was overstretching the country’s resources and would history and biography, are more established than
thus expose the USSR sooner rather than later to the others. The impact of intelligence on policy-makers is
need for radical changes in her system. The wishful a relatively new area of systematic research. Inter-
thinking that the USSR would fall victim to its national cooperation projects have done much to
inability of continuous adaptation worked out after promote nuclear history and strategic studies, but the
three decades of aspiring military strategic and pol- history of the military alliances and of national defense
itical parity with the US. Some authors argue that organizations and policies depend still on the auth-
Reagan’s defence build-up deliberately forced the orities’ grant of access as well as clearance and
Soviet leadership to acknowledge the failure of its permission for publishing inspected material. The
domestic system and hence the USSR’s inability to studied ambiguity of the political leaderships and the
persist in the contest and sustain bipolarity. (Adomeit top military echelon about the worth of strategic
1998, Gaddis 1987, Wells’ article in Hogan 1992). The nuclear weapons in case deterrence should fail and
way the global contest ended invited Americans to about the use of short-range atomic weapons deserves
believe that they had won the Cold War. further study in order to know the implications of
nuclear weaponry on the conduct of Cold War
diplomacy and governmental guidance to their mili-
4. Methodological Problems tary.
The immersion of the concept Cold War in the Future research should be more systematic in the
perpetual clash of interests between East and West and sense of extending the conceptualization beyond the
within each ‘bloc’ subjects the interpretator on the one national and bilateral focus to the regional context
hand to the political climate of his own times, and may and intensifying the approach by addressing the
thus reload or de-emphasize the contentions of the fundamental questions about the changing nature of
past; on the other hand, access to newly available the struggle, its costs, the persistence or recreation of
records reveals new insights into previous phases of patterns of conflict, and above all the question whether
the Cold War and thus demands rethinking the past the Cold War structure affected all other bilateral or
but in a different way. Getting the balance right intraregional conflicts or whether re-emerging older
between these two operations is difficult when knowl- conflicts pervaded the East–West conflict, so that the
edge about one party to the conflict is the result of parties to such conflicts used the Cold War for the
generations of research, whereas the more recent purpose of engaging wealthy allies on their side.
presentations of findings from Soviet, GRD, Czech, or See also: Arms Control; Communism, History of;
Polish sources are both less systematic or structured Contemporary History; Diplomacy; Eastern Euro-
and more exposed to be taken instantly as evidence for pean Studies: History; Eastern European Studies:
one interpretation e.g., of Stalin or Krushchev or Politics; International Relations, History of; Military
another. The task to study the records compre-
and Politics; National Security Studies and War
hensively, but also be prepared to modify one’s
assessments in response to newly available empirical Potential of Nations; Peacemaking in History;
evidence is prone to collide with the other obligation, Revolutions of 1989–90 in Eastern Central Europe;
namely to explain what were the basic causes of a Second World War, The; Soviet Studies: Politics;
conflict and which causes—meaning in politics: sins of War, Sociology of; Warfare in History
commission and omission—are accountable for what
developments.
A second main problem is the exact phase-by-phase Bibliography
and overall intersection between the interpretation of Adomeit H 1998 Imperial Oerstretch: Germany in Soiet Policy
the collaboration leading to the evolution of ‘Western’ From Stalin to Gorbache. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-
structures in the economic sphere and the assessment Baden, Germany

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Cold War, The

Bossuat G 1992 La France, l’aide ameT ricaine et la construction Wolfe T W 1970 Soiet Power and Europe, 1945–1970. Johns
europeT enne, 1944–1954. Impr. nationale, Paris Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD
Bozo F 1991 La France and l’OTAN. De la guerre froide au
nouel ordre europeT en. Masson, Paris G. Schmidt
Deighton A 1990 The Impossible Peace: Britain, the Diision of
Germany and the Origins of the Cold War. Clarendon Press, Copyright # 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd.
Oxford, UK
Gaddis J L 1987 The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the All rights reserved.
Cold War. Oxford University Press, New York
Gardner R N 1969 Sterling–Dollar Diplomacy. The Origins and
the Prospects of Our International Economic Order New Coleman, James Samuel (1926–95)
expanded edn, McGraw-Hill, New York
Garthoff R L 1985 DeT tente and Confrontation: American–Soiet James S. Coleman was born on May 12, 1926 in
Relations from Nixon to Reagan. Brookings Institution, Bedford, Indiana. He died on March 25, 1995 in
Washington, DC Chicago, Illinois. Coleman was among the most im-
Greenwood S 2000 Britain and the Cold War 1945–91. portant American sociologists of his generation. By
Macmillan, Houndsmill, UK importantly influencing both intellectual and policy
Hanrieder W F 1989 Germany, America, Europe: Forty Years of
German Foreign Policy. Yale University Press, New Haven,
debate, Coleman was unique among sociologists. By
CT making important contributions to a large range of
Heuser B 1998 NATO, Britain, France and the FRG. Nuclear areas of scholarly concern, including mathematical
Strategies and Forces in Europe, 1949–2000. Macmillan, sociology, sociology of education, and social theory,
Basingstoke, UK Coleman was unique among social scientists.
Hitchcock W I 1998 France Restored. Cold War Diplomacy and
the Quest for Leadership in Europe, 1944–1954. University of
North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill, NC
Hogan M (ed.) 1992 The End of the Cold War. Cambridge 1. Life
University Press, Cambridge, UK
Kent J 1993 British Imperial Strategy and the Origins of the Cold James Samuel Coleman was born into a family of
War, 1944–1949. Leicester University Press, Leicester, UK teachers, with roots in the landed gentry of the South
Kugler R L 1993 Commitment to Purpose. How Alliance Part- on his father’s side, and in various places in the Mid-
nership Won the Cold War. RAND, Santa Monica, CA West on his mother’s side. His grandfather, Samuel,
LaFeber W 1991 America, Russia, and the Cold War, 1945–1990, was a minister. The family moved frequently in
6th edn. McGraw-Hill, New York Coleman’s youth between places in Ohio, Arkansas,
Leffler M P 1992 A Preponderance of Power: National Security, and Kentucky to settle, finally, in Louisville, Ken-
the Truman Administration, and the Cold War. Stanford tucky, where Coleman graduated from Manual High
University Press, Stanford, CA
Link W 1980 Der Ost-West-Konflikt. Die Organisation der
School in 1941. The origin is important for his basic
internationalen Beziehungen im 20. Jahrhundert Kohlhommor. sociological interests and positions. The marginality
Stuttgart, Germany from moving around between southern and northern
Lundestad G 1986 East, West, North, South: Major Deelop- American cultures and the diversity of his origins
ments in International Politics, 1945–1986. Oxford University instilled a strong curiosity about social relations. The
Press, New York teacher occupations of both parents created a strong
May E R (ed.) 1993 American Cold War Strategy: Interpreting interest in schools and education. Samuel, the minister
NSC 68. Bedford Books, Boston grandfather, and the mother were important for
Milward A S 1984 The Reconstruction of Western Europe, Coleman’s preoccupation with moral issues that pro-
1945–1951. Methuen, London foundly influenced his work.
Nelson K L 1995 The Making of DeT tente: Soiet–American
Relations in the Shadow of Vietnam. Johns Hopkins University
Coleman’s choice of sociology as a vocation came
Press, Baltimore, MD quite late. He graduated from Purdue University in
Paterson T G 1979 On Eery Front: The Making of the Cold 1949, with a degree in Chemical Engineering, and his
War. Norton, New York first job was as a chemist with Eastman Kodak. He
Schmidt G (ed) 1993\1995 Ost-West-Beziehungen: Konfron- had almost no undergraduate education in any social
tation und DeT tente 1945–1989, 3 Vols. Brockmeyer Bochum, science. Nonetheless, in 1951 he began graduate study
Germany in sociology at Columbia University. Coleman’s dual
Schmidt G, Doran C F (eds.) 1996 Amerikas Option fuW r attraction to science and moral engagement made
Deutschland und Japan. Die Position und Rolle Deutschlands sociology an impeccable choice, or so it would seem in
und Japans in regionalen und internationalen Strukturen. Die 1951. He had found industry frustrating and a likely
1950er und die 1990er Jahre im Vergleich. Brockmeyer,
Bochum, Germany
eventual career in management unappealing. He
Trachtenberg M 1999 A Constructed Peace. The Making of the wanted to devote his life to discovery and concluded it
European Settlement 1945–1963. Princeton University Press, could only be about people, their relationships, and
Princeton, NJ their social organization.
Ullman R H 1991 Securing Europe. Adamantine Press, Twicken- Columbia’s sociology department gave Coleman
ham, UK four intense years and three important teachers: Paul

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International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences ISBN: 0-08-043076-7

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