Professional Documents
Culture Documents
NMDC
Performance Highlights
Quarterly highlights (Standalone)
Particulars (` cr) Net sales EBITDA % margin PAT 3QFY13 2,047 1,390 67.9 1,292 3QFY12 2,822 2,261 80.1 1,859 % chg (yoy) (27.5) (38.5) (1,218)bp (30.5) 2QFY13 2,612 1,935 74.1 1,678 % chg (qoq) (21.6) (28.1) (615)bp (23.0)
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Mining 58,182 0.9 206/142 284,653 1 19,608 5,933 5,760 NMDC.BO NMDC@IN
`147 `181
12 months
NMDC reported weaker-than-expected 3QFY2013 results on the back of lower-than-expected sales volumes as well as realizations. We maintain Buy on the stock due to its inexpensive valuations. Weak operational performance: NMDCs net sales fell by 27.5% yoy
to `2,047cr (below our estimates of `2,162cr), mainly due to lower volumes, which declined 16.9% yoy to 5.32mn tonne. Iron ore realizations also declined 13.1% yoy to `3,820/tonne.
EBITDA/tonne slumps on lower realizations: EBITDA declined by 38.5% yoy to `1,390cr. EBITDA/tonne decreased by 26.0% yoy to `2,614 due to fall in average realization. Net profit decreased by 30.5% yoy to `1,292cr (below
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 80.0 11.9 4.4 3.7
3m 5.3
1yr 10.3
(17.3) (21.7)
FY2011 11,369 82.2 6,499 88.3 16.4 76.1 9.0 3.0 38.8 50.6 3.6 4.7
FY2012 11,261 (1.0) 7,266 11.8 18.3 79.3 8.0 2.4 33.3 40.1 3.4 4.2
FY2013E 9,674 (14.1) 6,336 (12.8) 16.0 75.2 9.2 2.0 23.6 26.6 3.8 5.1
FY2014E 11,536 19.2 7,385 16.5 18.6 76.6 7.9 1.7 23.0 27.0 3.0 4.0
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay Rachh
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841 vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
3QFY13 2,047 (41) (2.0) 64 3.1 139 6.8 494 24.1 656 32.1 1,390 67.9 1,390 67.9 34 556 1,913 93.5 621 32.5 1,292
3QFY12 2,822 (33) (1.2) 60 2.1 139 4.9 396 14.0 561 19.9 2,261 80.1 2,261 80.1 34 525 2,752 97.5 893 32.4 1,859
2QFY13 2,612 (42) (1.6) 40 1.5 144 5.5 536 20.5 677 25.9 1,935 74.1 -
9MFY13 7,499 88 1.2 158 2.1 418 5.6 1,384 18.5 2,048 27.3 5,451 72.7 -
9MFY12 8,667 35 0.4 152 1.8 403 4.6 1,127 13.0 1,717 19.8 6,950 80.2 6,951 80.2 101 1,470 8,320 96.0 2,697 32.4 5,623
(38.5)
1,935 74.1 -
(28.1)
5,627 75.0 -
(19.0)
Result highlights
Realization slumps 13.1% yoy
NMDCs net sales fell by 27.5% yoy to `2,047cr (below our estimates of `2,162cr), mainly due to lower volumes which declined 16.9% yoy to 5.32mn tonne. Iron ore realizations also declined 13.1% yoy to `3,820/tonne.
Iron ore sales volumes were low due to lower offtake from the e-auctions by the company and lower production volumes.
(mn tonnes)
(`/tonne)
(%)
20 10 0 (10) (20)
3QFY12
1QFY13
3QFY13
Average realization
% yoy (RHS)
(` cr)
(%)
(%)
20
4,100
30
(`/tonne)
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 3QFY11 1QFY12 3QFY12 EBITDA/tonne 1QFY13 3QFY13 % yoy (RHS)
(` cr)
(%)
20 0 (20) (40)
Net profit declined by 30.5% yoy Other income grew by 5.9% yoy to `556cr, mainly due to higher cash balance. Consequently, the net profit decreased by 30.5% yoy to `1,292cr (below our estimate of `1,518cr). Exhibit 8: Net margin stood at 63.1%
2,500 55.7 2,000 1,500 57.9 64.7 64.1 65.9 63.3 67.1 64.3 63.1 80 70 60 50
(`cr)
1,000 500 0 3QFY11 1QFY12 3QFY12 1QFY13 3QFY13 Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)
30 20 10 0
(%)
40
(%)
40
Investment rationale
Iron ore capacity to expand
NMDC aims to ramp up its production capacity to 48mn tonne by FY2015 (current capacity 32mn tonne) through increased exploration of its existing mines and development of new mines (Deposit 11B and Deposit 13 in Bailadila and Kumaraswany, respectively, in Karnataka). However, given its past track record, we forecast iron ore production capacity to increase to 40mn tonne by FY2015 (compared to its target of 48mn tonne). In the near term, although we expect sales volumes to decline in FY2013, we expect them to grow by 14.3% yoy during FY2014.
(mn tonnes)
40
(US$/tonne)
(%)
40 30 20 10 0 11
36
25.0 20.0 18.0 13.6 6.7 4.3 4.7 17.4 15.0 10.0 5.0 -
14
16
FY2010 Opex/tonne
FY2011 EBITDA/tonne
FY2012
FY2010 NMDC
FY2012
FY2014E
28 4,120
25 3,914
Angel forecast
16.0 18.6
Variation (%)
(9.7) (3.0)
(` cr)
8x
11x
17x
14x
300 200 100 0 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 9x 14x 19x 24x
400 300 200 100 0 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x
10 23 6 -
Company background
Incorporated in November 1958, government-owned NMDC is Indias largest iron ore producer with a capacity of 36mn tonne. The company operates high-grade iron ore mines at Kirandul and Bacheli in Chhattisgarh and Donimalai in Karnataka. The average mine life of NMDC is 38 years currently.
10
11
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) (0.8) (1.7) (0.9) (2.9) (0.9) (2.0) (0.8) (2.3) (0.7) (2.9) (0.7) (2.6) 4.9 64 50 81 33 3.6 60 25 105 34 5.6 56 16 54 11 4.8 72 24 63 21 3.3 65 24 63 27 3.2 60 24 63 22 57.7 454.4 43.9 33.4 347.9 26.6 50.6 744.9 38.8 40.1 444.2 33.3 26.6 239.0 23.6 27.0 236.0 23.0 76.2 65.8 5.2 261.7 69.7 66.2 3.8 174.0 75.0 66.8 6.7 333.3 78.1 67.7 3.7 197.7 74.1 67.0 1.6 77.5 75.5 67.0 1.1 57.9 11.0 11.0 11.2 2.2 29.4 8.7 8.7 8.9 1.7 36.0 16.4 16.4 16.7 2.2 48.5 18.3 18.3 18.7 3.2 61.6 16.0 16.0 16.2 3.2 73.8 18.6 18.6 18.9 3.7 88.1 13.3 13.1 5.0 1.5 6.4 8.3 4.1 16.9 16.5 4.1 1.2 7.3 10.3 3.2 9.0 8.8 3.0 1.5 3.6 4.7 2.1 8.0 7.9 2.4 2.1 3.4 4.2 1.5 9.2 9.0 2.0 2.2 3.8 5.1 1.3 7.9 7.8 1.7 2.5 3.0 4.0 1.0 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
NMDC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
13