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Generation
Transmission
Gas Transmission
National Transmission System (Transco)
Power Generation
National Power plc PowerGen plc British Energy Eastern Group 40 other licensed Generators
Transmission
National Grid Co.
Pool Pricing
1 Day = 48 half hour periods Everyday by 10 A.M. Generators submit schedule for next day
Periods 1 Generator PowerGen Power MW 10 Price GBP 15
British Energy
Eastern 2 48
7
2
15.25
15.50
Pool Pricing
National Grid Co. forecasted daily demand based on historical models Everyday @ 4 P.M. Pool Price is announced.
Periods 1 Generator PowerGen Power MW 10 Price GBP 15 15.25 Demand
British Energy 5
15
Eastern
2 48
15.50
Changing Scenario
Ongoing regulatory and political discussions about how to set pool prices, both Enron and Eastern believed that strategic benefits of early involvement in power & gas markets were substantial. Hence both were committed to the markets.
Enron Corporation
One of the worlds largest integrated natural gas and electricity companies. Enrons Asset Development Group had expertise in tacking complex power projects globally. Six units:
Enron oil & Gas Enron Gas pipeline group Enron Ventures Enron International Enron Renewable Energy Corp Enron Capital and Trade Resources
Alternative Proposal
Q2
How would you characterize Easterns option under the CTA? When is this option valuable? What happens when gas is priced at GBP 1.25 MMBtu and electricity is priced at GBP 25 per MWh? What happens when gas is priced at GBP 2.50 MMBtu and electricity is priced at GBP 15 per MWh?
Q3
Should Enron sign the CTA with Eastern, build the plant, or do both? What risks will it face if it does one or the other, but not both?
Risks involved in building the plant alone 1. Price/cost differential between PPP and gas + operating expenses going negative rendering the plant useless. 2. Technological innovation may lower the cost of power generation in the industry. 3. Difficult to find counterparties who will sign long term PPAs 4. Project cost overrun, delays.
Other risks
1. 2. Environmental safety from plant. Regulatory approvals. Financial risks
Q3
Risks involved in CTA with Eastern
1. When Price/cost differential between PPP and gas + operating expenses goes positive, Eastern will use the virtual plant or they will exercise the option. Enron without the physical plant will make a loss in this case. Enrons traders could construct a hedge using the physical plant to offset the Eastern CTA. With physical plant Enron will also have the right to exchange gas for power poll proceeds.
2. 3.
CTA with Eastern provides Enron the annual payments of 68.8 million GBP. This will cover all fixed costs, debt service requirements and a minimum return on equity for the actual plant.
Q4
How does Enron make money in this deal? What happens if it builds the physical plant, but never uses the plant? How likely is Enron to use it?
Thank You!