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A Gap is the difference between the assets and liabilities of a company within a given period of time. This mismatching of assets and liabilities occurs due to the fluctuating rate of interest in the market. This fluctuation generates the GAP between the matching of assets and liabilities. Put in a simple way, it is the difference between the interest enjoyed by the company upon its assets and the interest paid by the company upon its liabilities. Now this GAP when analyzed for the sake of measuring the level of liquidity of the firm is known as GAP Analysis. GAP analysis, also known as the re-pricing model, is essentially a book value accounting cash flow analysis of the re-pricing gap between the interest revenue earned on an FIs assets and the interest paid on its liabilities over some particular period. Gap analysis was widely adopted by financial institutions during the 1980s. When used to manage interest rate risk, it was used in tandem with duration analysis. Both techniques have their own strengths and weaknesses. For doing a GAP analysis we would require determining which assets and liabilities will have their interest rate change as market interest rates change. We call them Rate Sensitive Assets and Rate Sensitive Liabilities. Let us see some of the examples of a FIs Rate Sensitive Assets and Liabilities:
Rate Sensitive Assets assets with maturity less than one year variable-rate mortgages short-term commercial loans Portion of fixed-rate mortgages (say 20%)
Rate Sensitive Liabilities money market deposits variable-rate Cash Deposits short-term Cash Deposits federal funds short-term borrowings portion of checkable deposits portion of savings
The length of investment: Investors may require a liquidity premium to encourage them to invest in funds for differing periods of time. The liquidity premium is traditionally positive, giving rise to a normally shaped upward-sloping yield curve. FIs typically ride the yield curve by borrowing at shorter maturities and lending at longer maturities. Credit risk: If there is a positive probability that less than 100 percent of principal and accrued interest will be repaid, then the FI will adjust the interest rate upwards so that the expected value of payments equals or exceeds the expected value of comparable risk-free loans. Government, corporate, and private demand for credit: Interest is simply the price for credit. The higher the demand for credit, the higher its price (all other factors being equal). Central bank monetary policy: By influencing the cost and availability of short-term funding, the central bank indirectly controls the supply of credit. All other things being equal, the higher the money supply, the lower interest rates are. The problem is that all other things do not remain equal. Particularly, increasing the money supply will probably increase expected inflationwhich increases interest rates.
Price Risk
Changes in interest rates may change the market values of the banks assets and liabilities by different amounts. The risk of a decline in the value of a security or a portfolio is also known as Price Risk. It is the biggest risk faced by all investors. Although price risk specific to a stock can be minimized through diversification, market risk cannot be diversified away. The longer is duration, the larger is the change in value for a given change in interest rates.
Solution: The basic equation for determining the change in market value for assets or liabilities is: % Change in Value = DUR x [i / (1 + i)] or Change in Value = DUR x [i / (1 + i)] x Original Value Consider a change in rates from 10% to 15%. Using the value from Table 1, we see: Assets: Asset Value = 2.7 .05/(1 + .10) 100m = 12.3m Liabilities: Liability Value = 1.03 .05/(1 + .10) 95m = 4.5m Net Worth: NW NW = Assets Liabilities = 12.3m (4.5m) = 7.8m
For a rate change from 10% to 15%, the net worth of First National Bank will fall, changing by 7.8m. Recall from the balance sheet that First National Bank has Bank capital totaling 5m. Following such a dramatic change in rate, the capital would fall to 2.8m.
Summary
GAP Summary Change in Interest Income Increase > Decrease > Increase Decrease Increase Decrease < < = =
Change in Net Interest Income Increase Decrease Decrease Increase None None
GAP Ratio = RSAs/RSLs A GAP ratio greater than 1 indicates a positive GAP A GAP ratio less than 1 indicates a negative GAP A GAP ratio far from zero will increase the risk of the FI
BIBLIOGRAPHY
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/asset-liability-committee.asp#axzz24APNiZWO http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinvestment_risk http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pricerisk.asp#axzz24APNiZWO http://www.freequality.org/documents/training/GapAnalysis%5B2%5D.ppt http://userpage.fu-berlin.de/~ballou/koch/pres/CHAP05.ppt http://ewp.rpi.edu/hartford/~stoddj/FinancialModels/MishkinPpt/Mishkin_PPT_CH24.ppt http://ihome.cuhk.edu.hk/~b100534/Courses/sau_ch09.pdf www.riskglossary.com www.investinganswers.com