As the author Joseph Epstein has noted, it is a lot better to have written a boo k than to actually be writing one.

Writing a book requires a tremendous amount o f patience, organization, and discipline, qualities that I lack and that writing a blog do not very much encourage. I was therefore highly dependent on many oth ers who had those qualities in greater measure, and whose wisdom helped to shape the book in many large and small ways. Thank you to my parents, Brian David Sil ver and Sally Thrun Silver, to whom this book is dedicated, and to my sister, Re becca Silver. Thank you to Virginia Smith for being a terrific editor in all res pects. She, as Laura Stickney, Ann Godoff, and Scott Moyers, believed in the vis ion of the book. They made few compromises in producing a book that fulfilled th at vision and yet tolerated many excuses when I needed more time to get it there . Thank you to my literary agent, Sydelle Kramer, for helping me to conceive of and sell the project. Her advice was invariably the right kind: gentle enough, b ut never too gentle, on the many occasions when the book seemed at risk of runni ng off the rails. Thank you to my research assistant, Arikia Millikan, who provi ded boundless enthusiasm for the book, and whose influence is reflected in its k een interest in science and technology. Thank you to Julia Kamin, whose organiza tional skills helped point the way forward when the book was at a critical stage . Thank you to Jane Cavolina and Ellen Cavolina Porter, who produced high-qualit y transcriptions on a demanding schedule. Thank you to Emily Votruba, Veronica W indholz, Kaitlyn Flynn, Amanda Dewey, and John Sharp for turning the book around against an extremely tight production schedule, and for their understanding tha t today usually meant tonight and that tonight usually meant 5 in the morning. to Robert Gauldin for his love and support. Thank you to Shashank Patel, Kim Ba lin, Bryan Joiner, Katie Halper, Jason MacLean, Maryam Saleh, and Jessica Klein for tolerating my rambling on about the book for hours at a time on the one hand or going into hiding for weeks at a time on the other. Thank you to Micah Cohen at the New York Times, who assisted with this book in more ways than I can coun t. Thank you to my bosses and colleagues at the New York Times, especially Megan Liberman, Jim Roberts, David Leonhardt, Lisa Tozzi, Gerry Mullany, Rick Berke, Dick Stevenson, Derek Willis, Matt Ericson, Greg Veis, and Hugo Lindgren, who tr usted me to manage the demands of the book production cycle along with those of the news cycle. Thank you to Bill Keller, Gerry Marzorati, and Jill Abramson for bringing me into the New York Times family. Thank you to John Sides, Andrew Gel man, Tom Schaller, Ed Kilgore, Renard Sexton, Brian McCabe, Hale Stewart, and Se an Quinn for their contributions to the FiveThirtyEight blog. Thank you to Richa rd Thaler and Anil Kashyap, of the University of Chicago, for reviewing the chap ters related to economics and finance. Thank you to David Carr, Kathy Gauldin, a nd Page Ashley for reminding me of the importance of finishing the book, and to Will Repko for helping to instill that work ethic that might get it there. Thank you to Gary Huckabay, Brandon Adams, Rafe Furst, Kevin Goldstein, Keith Urbahn, Matthew Vogel, Rachel Hauser, Jennifer Bloch, Thom Shanker, Kyu-Young Lee, and Mark Goldstein for serving as connectors and facilitators at key points along th e way. Many people were polled on the title of this book. Thank you to Jonah Per etti, Andrea Harner, Kyle Roth, Jessi Pervola, Ruth Welte, Brent Silver, Richard Silver, Amanda Silver, Roie Lindegren, Len Lindegren, Zuben Jelveh, Douglas Jes ter, Justin Wolfers, J. Stephen Steppard, Robert Erikson, Katie Donalek, Helen L ee, Katha Pollitt, Jeffrey Toobin, David Roberts, Felix Salmon, Hillary Bok, Hea ther Hurlburt, Art Goldhammer, David Karol, Sara Robinson, Max Sawicky, Michael O Hare, Marc Tracy, Daniel Davies, E. J. Graff, Paul Starr, Russ Wellen, Jeffrey H auser, Dana Goldstein, Suzy Khimm, Jonathan Zasloff, Avi Zenilman, James Galbrai th, Greg Anrig, Paul Waldman, and Bob Kuttner for providing their advice. This b ook is fairly scrupulous about citing the origin of its ideas, but some people I interviewed were more influential in determining its direction than might be in ferred by the number of times that they appear in the text. This list includes D aniel Kahneman, Vasik Rajlich, Dr. Alexander Sandy McDonald, Roger Pielke Jr., Joh n Rundle, Thomas Jordan, Irene Eckstrand, Phil Gordon, Chris Volinsky, Robert Be ll, Tim Berners-Lee, Lisa Randall, Jay Rosen, Simon Jackman, Diane Lauderdale, J effrey Sachs, Howard Lederer, Rodney Brooks, Henry Abbott, and Bruce Bueno de Me squita among others. I hope to return all these favors someday. I will start by

Thank

buying the first beer for anybody on this list, and the first three for anybody who should have been, but isn t. Nate Silver Brooklyn, NY Nate Silver (2012-09-04T14:00:00+00:00). The Signal and the Noise (Kindle Locati ons 7758-7797). Penguin Group, USA. Kindle Edition.