You are on page 1of 3

MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: RE: DATE: INTERESTED PARTIES GLEN BOLGER LOUISIANA SENATE RACE SURVEY MARCH 15,

2013

Methodology Public Opinion Strategies completed a statewide survey in Louisiana of 500 likely voters, including 125 interviews with cell phone respondents. The survey was conducted March 3-5, 2013, for Congressman John Fleming and has a margin of error of +4.38% in 95 out of 100 cases. Key Findings 1. The political environment is encouraging for a Republican candidate to beat Mary Landrieu. President Barack Obama has a 40% approve/58% disapprove job rating in Louisiana. This is similar to Obamas 41% of the vote he received in November of 2012. The generic ballot also bodes well for Republicans, as they lead 44%-34% over the Democratic candidate. 2. Against some relatively unknown candidates, Mary Landrieu is under 50% on the initial ballot. On a four-way ballot, Mary Landrieu leads 47% to 15% over John Fleming, with Bill Cassidy in second with 14% and 6% for Chas Roemer. Fleming and Cassidy have similarly low levels of name ID and undefined images. Fleming has 36% name ID, with 17% favorable and 4% unfavorable. Cassidy is slightly better known, with 43% ID/19% favorable/7% unfavorable. Roemer has 39% ID, with just a 9% favorable/10% unfavorable image. Flemings advantage over Cassidy is more significant than the topline results show. Fleming has sizable leads among key groups, including base Republicans (by 13 points) and very conservative white voters (by 11 points).

Turning Questions Into Answers.

214 N. Fayette Street Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 836-7655 Fax (703) 836-8117 E-Mail: glen@pos.org www.pos.org

Louisiana Statewide Survey Key Findings memo March 15, 2013 page two

3.

In a run-off, Landrieus lead shrinks to five points against Fleming. Despite a 63 point name ID advantage, the incumbent Senators margin drops to just a 49%-44% lead over Fleming in a run-off ballot.

4.

After hearing purely positive information about both Congressman Fleming and Congressman Cassidy, Landrieus ballot support drops significantly. Underscoring that her lead is based primarily on name ID, Landrieus ballot score drops to a 40%-29% lead over Fleming, with 25% for Cassidy, after voters hear positive information about each of the two main Republicans. Added together, Fleming/Cassidy combined get to 54%, which is highly problematic for the well-defined Landrieu.

5.

A simple voting record contrast gives Fleming the advantage over Cassidy. We asked a simple contrast question:
Now thinking just about the two Republican candidates who may run for the Senate, for whom would you vote if you learned ... (ROTATE) Congressman John Fleming consistently receives higher scores for his voting record from conservative groups. ...while... Congressman Bill Cassidy consistently receives lower scores for his voting record from conservative groups. 51% 32% 6% 10% 2% FLEMING CASSIDY WOULD NOT VOTE FOR A REPUBLICAN (DO NOT READ) UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ) REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

6.

After testing opposition research points on each candidate, Fleming pulls further ahead of Cassidy on the informed ballot, and Landrieu drops some more. We tested eight opposition research points on Landrieu (focused on her spending and health care record), five opposition research points on Fleming, and just three on Cassidy. The post-oppo informed ballot was 38% Landrieu, 32% Fleming, and 20% Cassidy.

Louisiana Statewide Survey Key Findings memo March 15, 2013 page three

The Bottom Line Louisiana voters are poised to elect a Republican in the 2014 Senate race. There is no question Mary Landrieu has an early advantage based on name ID and definition, but her lead dissipates as the two potential Republicans become better defined. Given his stronger numbers with the base, John Fleming is better-positioned to make the run-off than Bill Cassidy. Cassidys more moderate record hurts him in a race that includes Fleming. November 2014 is a long way away, but Congressman John Fleming is well-positioned to be elected to the Senate if he decides to run.

Turning Questions Into Answers.

214 N. Fayette Street Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 836-7655 Fax (703) 836-8117 E-Mail: glen@pos.org www.pos.org

You might also like