MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: RE: DATE: Interested Parties Jefrey Pollock & Joe Hickerson Allyson Schwartz: Frontrunner for Governor in Both Primary and General March 20, 2013

SUM M AR Y
Allyson Schwartz is the top choice of Democratic primary voters to take on Tom Corbett and become Pennsylvanias next Governor regardless of how many candidates are on the ballot and regardless of whom those candidates are. Schwartzs position in the Democratic primary is buttressed by a commanding lead in the Philadelphia media market, which will account for 40% of the primary electorate. Schwartz has the most appealing profile of the potential candidates, and she establishes a dominant lead once primary voters are read all of the candidates profiles. In addition to being the strongest candidate in the primary, Schwartz is also the strongest candidate in the general election against Corbett. According to the only exhaustive poll of the general election done to date, Schwartz wins the support of 50% of voters and leads the incumbent by eight points. Schwartz continues to lead Corbett by an eight-point margin even after voters are read a series of negative messages about both of the candidates.

SURVE Y RES UL TS THE PRIMARY ELECTION

In a three-way Democratic primary against Rob McCord and Tom Wolf, Allyson Schwartz leads with 31%, followed by McCord at 12% and Wolf at 7%. Schwartz starts the campaign with a wide lead in the Philadelphia media market, winning 56% of the vote, followed by Wolf at 5% and McCord at 4%. Such a commanding lead in Philadelphia would make it difficult for others to make up the difference elsewhere. Schwartz leads among all demographic subgroups but most especially among non-white voters (46%), liberals (40%), and women (35%).

Schwartz McCord Wolf

31% 12% 7%

58%

14% 8%
Initial Post Profiles

NEW YORK WASHINGTON, D.C. HARTFORD LOS ANGELES

GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP.COM

Following brief positive profiles of all three candidates, Schwartz leads with 58%, followed by McCord at 14% and Wolf at 8%. Schwartzs profile is far and away the most appealing, with 67% of primary voters finding it very appealing. That is 39 points higher than the percentage saying the same about McCords (28% very appealing) and 49 points higher than the percentage saying it about Wolfs (18% very appealing). Schwartz leads by wide margins in every media market following the profiles, but most especially in Philadelphia where she takes 74% of the vote. She also wins 49% in Johnstown-Altoona, 48% in Pittsburgh, 45% in Harrisburg/Lancaster/York, and 41% in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Schwartz also wins the support of 65% of women following these profiles:
Allyson Schwartz of Montgomery County is a Congresswoman and former state Senator who wrote the law establishing Pennsylvania's Childrens Health Insurance Program. The only woman in the states Congressional delegation, Schwartz opposed pay raises for politicians and has been a champion for the middle class, leading efforts to encourage businesses to hire veterans returning from overseas and bring manufacturing jobs back to Pennsylvania. Rob McCord of Montgomery County is the current state Treasurer and previously worked as an independent business leader, running numerous successful venture capital organizations. By cutting waste and improving efficiency, McCords common sense leadership as Treasurer has resulted in an impressive turnaround in the office and has generated $1.4 billion for the states taxpayers. Tom Wolf of York County served as head of the Department of Revenue for Governor Rendell before returning to his position as CEO of a successful family business, which is a leading supplier of building materials. Wolf is a progressive who knows theres a way to govern the state that is good for both businesses and workers, because thats the way he runs his own company.

In a nine-way Democratic primary that includes all potential candidates, Allyson Schwartz leads the field with 18%, followed by Joe Sestak (15%), Rob McCord (5%), Kathleen McGinty (5%), Tim Solobay (3%), Ed Pawlowski (3%), Tom Wolf (2%), Mike Stack (1%) and John Hanger (1%). Schwartz is the top choice for Sestaks voters if Sestak is not on the ballot, winning the support of 24% of them. So in an eight-way Democratic primary that does not includes Sestak, Schwartz leads with 21%, followed by McCord and McGinty at 7%, Solobay and Pawlowski at 3%, Wolf and Stack at 2%, and Hanger at 1%. Of the nine potential Democratic candidates, Sestak is the most familiar to primary voters, with 31% viewing him favorably and 5% unfavorably. So Schwartz leads the primary even though she is just the second most familiar candidate (28% favorable/3% unfavorable). Despite two successful statewide campaigns, McCord is a distant third in familiarity among primary voters (14% favorable/2% unfavorable). All of the other candidates are even less known, with familiarity ranging from 5% to 12%.

THE GENERAL ELECTION

According to a survey conducted for Democratic Governors Association this past January, Allyson Schwartz led Tom Corbett in a hypothetical match-up for Governor by eight points, 50%-42%. So before any campaign has been run, Schwartz starts with half of the electorate in her corner. In the Philadelphia media market, Schwartz led Corbett by 28 points, 61%-33%. Schwartz won overwhelming support from women, leading Corbett 51%-38% among them but she also led Corbett by two points among men, 48%-46%. And in addition to having 79% of Democrats already consolidated behind her, Schwartz also led Corbett among Independent voters by three points, 45%-42%. Schwartz led Corbett by eight points in the initial vote despite the fact that only about one third of the electorate is familiar with her. The potential for Schwartzs support to grow becomes clear once voters learn new information about both candidates. Following positive profiles of both candidates, Schwartz led by 21 points, 55%-34%. Following eight negative messages about Corbett, Schwartz led by 27 points, 58%-31%. And even following eight negative messages about Schwartz, she still led by eight points, 47%-39% -- the same as the lead she held at the start of the survey.

M ETHODOLOG Y
This memorandum summarizes the results from a live telephone poll of 601 randomlyselected likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania conducted March 9-12, 2013 by Global Strategy Group. Note that special care was taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of registered voters nationwide are properly represented. The margin of error associated with a sample of this size is 4.0% at the 95% confidence interval. This means that in 95 of 100 cases, the results of this poll are within plus or minus 4.0 points of the results that would have been obtained if all likely voters had been interviewed. This memorandum also references the results from a live telephone poll of 600 randomlyselected likely 2014 general election voters in Pennsylvania conducted January 15-17, 2013 by Benenson Strategy Group for the Democratic Governors Association. The margin of error for this poll is also 4.0% at the 95% confidence interval.