March 26, 2013

HS406: INTRODUCTION TO SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHY [ Assignment-1 ]

Name: Dhyey Shah Roll: 11110029

Which theory/theories best explain the demographic transition of India?

India is a relatively large country. It is also very diverse country in terms of religion, lifestyle, geography, language, people mentality etc. If we attempt to assess demographic transition without considering these diversities, it is highly possible that it wont be successful in analyzing the whole picture of India. For example if we state that total fertility rates are proportional to Literacy rates, it will be contradicted by the comparison of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Literacy rate Comparison:(i) Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Literacy rate in 2001: 69.14% Literacy rate in 2001: 60.47% Literacy rate in 2011: 79.30% Literacy rate in 2001: 67.70% Diff.: +10.16% Diff.: +7.23%

Total Fertility Rate Comparison: (ii) Gujarat Andhra Pradesh TFR in 2001: 2.6 TFR in 2001: 2.3 TFR in 2011: 2.4 TFR in 2011: 1.8 Diff.: -2.0 Diff.: -0.5

It is clear from the data that from 2001 to 2011 Gujarat has been ahead of Andhra Pradesh in terms of Literacy rates. Even change of Literacy rate is comparatively very large in Gujarat. But still from the TFR measures Andhra Pradesh is leading both in figures and change over the span 10 years. This simply happens because social factors people mentality and lifestyle are ignored in generalizing the statement. Most of the demographic theories make this common mistake of not taking in to account the cultural aspects of particular place in order to predict implications of demographic transition. For example Malthusian approach says Poverty and human misery are the consequences of

March 26, 2013

HS406: INTRODUCTION TO SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHY [ Assignment-1 ]

Name: Dhyey Shah Roll: 11110029

human population growth*. But in the case of many countries via cultural and systemic interference, the fact can be highlighted that poverty is not the unstoppable consequences of population growth. Same goes for Marxian Concept. Marxian concept compromise with freedom of individual which may not (mostly doesnt) resonate with many civilized set ups. Though Demographic Transition Theory seems to be modern and mature theory but it goes with the assumption that whatever was successful in Europe and USA will be worked out successful to other parts of the world, too. But in many African countries death rates are going high inspite of considerable decline in birth rates. This state of the country can be incorporated with none of the four stages of Demographic Transition Theory. Bangladesh also made itself an exception to Demographic Transition Theory by achieving low fertility rate with not so great economic conditions. Same possible scenario exists in generalizing these theories to India also due to its diversity. So, for explaining of demographic transition in India we need a theory which also takes sociocultural parameters into account. I think reformulated DTT can do this job (better than all other). Although economic and social development mostly imply decline in fertility but reverse is not always true. For example, if in some region prosperity, women literacy and social status increases. It is most probable that there Total Fertility Rate of that region will decrease. But just by knowing that Total fertility rate in some region has been decreased, you cannot predict that if in that region prosperity, women literacy and social status is going to increase.

March 26, 2013

HS406: INTRODUCTION TO SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHY [ Assignment-1 ]

Name: Dhyey Shah Roll: 11110029

So we need such theory which can predict an accurate picture of economic and social consequences of demographic transition (Even reformulated DTT cannot do this essential job). Since just keeping record of fertility and mortality is not the aim of demographic studies, it should be helpful in formulating policies which could drive us to economic and social advancement.

What is Indias prospect of reaping a full-blown demographic dividend?

(iii)

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From the point of view of the majority of demographers, the population pyramid will have a huge bulge on the middle in next 50 years and if India keeps on walking on the same path in terms of fertility and mortality on the span of 100 years the bulge will shift upwards to old ages. This means we do have enough human resources to work and the same resources are going to increase old-age dependency ratio in the future. But just high number of young people isnt enough; you also need equally high amount of employment, infrastructure and public services like health care, education in order to make demographic dividend sufficiently large. And all we have is 50-60 years to make that happen. Also we need to maintain replacement level fertility in order to keep the bulge at young age in our age structure. If our fertility goes below replacement level fertility ( 2.0 is not always the

March 26, 2013

HS406: INTRODUCTION TO SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHY [ Assignment-1 ]

Name: Dhyey Shah Roll: 11110029

(iv)

replacement level fertility, it may be higher if infant mortality rate is considered

), we will

have to face high old age dependency in future (which will likely to be the case only if we fail in ripping demographic dividend. See UNs future projection graph for Old Age Dependency). (v)

So if following conditions can be satisfied within 20-25 years (probably by means of some efficient government), I am confident that India will be able to rip full blown demographic dividend;: Creation of sufficient employment Infrastructural development

March 26, 2013

HS406: INTRODUCTION TO SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHY [ Assignment-1 ]

Name: Dhyey Shah Roll: 11110029

Efficient management of natural resources. Improvement in Quality and Quantity of public services such as education, health care etc. If we fail to do above things in 20-25 years, I feel that huge unemployed young bulge can result into many dangerous consequences. For example, increase in crime rates.

References: censusindia.gov.in/2011-provi)
results/paper2/data_files/india/Statement5_Literate&LitRate_State.xls

ii) iii) iv) v) *

planningcommission.nic.in/data/datatable/0904/tab_137.pdf http://esa.un.org/wpp/population-pyramids/population-pyramids.htm http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7834459 http://esa.un.org/unpd/ppp/Figures-Output/Population/PPP_Old-age-Dependency-Ratio.htm

HS406, week2 presentation, IIT Gandhinagar