Foodprint.

eu

Climate Change and Food Security, and Transfer of Knowledge between Generations
Murat Trkes, PhD
Professor Emeritus of Physical Geography and Geology & Climatology and Meteorology
Member of the Science Committee of the TEMA Foundation, stanbul, Turkey Affiliated Faculty at the Department of Statistics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey

Third Foodprint.eu meeting in Piteti-Vranesti, Romania EDUCATION TRANSFER OF KNOWLEDGE BETWEEN GENERATIONS 5th 9th April 2013

Food Security
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (World Food Summit 1996)

Food Security (continued)

In May 2007, at the 33rd Session of the Committee on World Food Security, FAO issued a statement to reaffirm its vision of a food-secure world: FAOs vision of a world without hunger is one in which most people are able, by themselves, to obtain the food they need for an active and healthy life, and where social safety nets ensure that those who lack resources still get enough to eat. (FAO, 2007)

Food Security

A community enjoys food security when all people, at all times, have access to nutritious, safe, personally acceptable and culturally appropriate foods, produced in ways that are environmentally and socially just. Four Dimensions to food security:

Food availability Food accessibility Food stability Food utilization

Food Systems

Food Security must be considered through a Food Systems Lens, which includes:

food production food processing and packaging food distribution and food consumption

Food systems are highly complex and globalized - in assessing climate change and food security it is not sufficient to analyze domestic production.

Global Environmental Change (GEC)

Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities:

For example changes in:

Land cover & soils Nitrogen availability & cycling

Atmospheric composition
Climate variability & means Water availability & quality

Biodiversity
Sea currents & salinity Sea level

Global Environmental Change

Human activities leading to GEC:

Examples of the anthropogenic activities:

Deforestation
Fossil fuel consumption Urbanisation Land reclamation Agricultural intensification

Freshwater extraction
Fisheries overexploitation Waste production

Critical Challenges: Climate change

(IPCC, 2007)

Climate Change and Food Security

Types of impacts - climate change will likely have:

Direct impacts - on plant and animal growth and food processing and distribution networks Indirect impacts - on social, economic and political structures

Timing of impacts

Some now, some later Some gradual, some sudden (i.e. abrupt changes)

Certainty of impacts

Models have some uncertainties, and

Direct Impacts of Climate Change

Due to Increased CO2 Concentrations in Atmosphere

CO2 fertilization effect may increase crop productivity Ocean productivity could decline due to acidification

Higher Temperatures

Longer growing seasons and increased productivity in high latitudes as long as temperature increases do not exceed 3C Crop losses and declines in productivity in low latitudes Unpredictable effects in lakes and oceans Less or more warmer winters, but increased thermal stress for livestock Possible disruption of transportation lines due to wildfires

Direct Impacts of Climate Change (continued)

Because of the Changes in Precipitation

Reduction in arable land in areas with decreased precipitation Challenges capturing water in areas with increased or unchanged precipitation Declines in aquaculture in areas of decreased precipitation

With Respect to Pests and Diseases

Little knowledge at this point Earlier spring activity, greater winter survival, and expansion of ranges

Direct Impacts of Climate Change (continued)

Due to the Extreme Events

Crop failure or reduced yields Livestock death Disruption of transportation lines

Rising Sea Levels

Elimination and salinization of arable land in some (low-lying) coastal regions, and small island states

Direct Impacts of Climate Change An Overall Assessment

Global agricultural production not expected to decline as long as temperature increases do not exceed 3C.

Significant regional shifts in food production will likely negatively affect developing countries.

Regional Food Self-Sufficiency

Challenges:
1. 2.

Climate change and non-climate change impacts, No incentives for new producers/de-skilled population, Limited processing and distribution infrastructure, Unclear how much land is irrigated or could be irrigated, Some products could not be produced here (or there),

3. 4.

5. 6.

Seasonality of growing would be a problem, etc.

Climate Change Impacts on Grain Yields

Global production
Cereal production
0
% difference from reference case

-2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 A1 A2
world

B1

B2

Percentage change in average crop yields. Effects of CO2 are taken into account. Crops modelled are: wheat, maize and rice.
Parry et al. (2005)

Climate Change Impacts on crop, livestock and forest production: IPCC estimates

IPCC AR4 WGII

in addition to many significant global, regional and national policies, actions and/or measures;

A major challenge for food security:

The small scale / family farmer

Pro-poor progress requires:

creating opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship, Increased public research and extension investment.

Small scale/family farm sustainability poses challenging policy choices:

payment for ecological services, decentralized governance systems and technology choices.

A major challenge for food security:

The small scale / family farmer

Small scale/family farmers:

Produce the bulk of global food, Are the largest number of stewards for the environmental services and biodiversity, Use the traditional farming information and systems, AND Perform the transfer of knowledge between the old and the new (present) generations, and Higher and sustainable productivity increase at their level will have a major impact on all the development goals (organic/ecological).

Options for action: Sustainability Goals

1. Poverty and livelihoods
Access to land and economic resources Access to urban and export markets Empower farmers with innovative tools, skills and knowledge to manage soils, water, biological resources, pests, etc.

Combine farmers with external knowledge (new partnerships)

Options for action : Sustainability Goals

2. Food security
Needs approaches for development of food stock management, market intelligences, early warning, distribution systems, Local production (food sovereignty), access and adequate nutritional information / education,

Options for action : Sustainability Goals

3. Environmental sustainability would lead
Enhancing sustainability while maintaining productivity (protecting the natural resource base and ecological provisioning), Improving nutrient, energy, water and land use efficiency, Better understanding of crop environment interactions (realize yield potential), farm diversification, promotion of agro-ecological and conservation agriculture (CA) systems, and Development of the policies that includes ending perverse subsidies, payment for ecosystem services, promotion of organic agriculture, agro-ecology, etc.

Options for action : Sustainability Goals

4. Human Health and nutrition
Are the integrated approaches that recognize the interlinkages between health, nutrition and agriculture, and the ability to meet the sustainability goals, Increase food security and safety, Lead additional investments to maintain and to improve current systems, etc.

Options for action : Sustainability Goals

5. Equity
Reforming related organizations (research, extension), integration of traditional / local knowledge, Equitable access to production resources (land / water), Reward for multifunctionality and ecosystem services, Multistakeholder participation in decision making, etc.

Some Examples
Global, Regional and Institutional Activities, Actions and Applications dealing with the Issue:

Joining Forces in Europe: Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change

(FACCE JPI)
27

Climate-smart Agriculture
Peter Holmgren FAO

Peter Holmgren, FAO 3 November 2009

Two Goals of Our Time

1. Achieving Food Security
1 billion hungry Food production to increase 70% by 2050 Adaptation to Climate Change critical

2. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

2 degree goal requires major emission cuts Agriculture and Land use = 30% of emissions.. ..and needs to be part of the solution

Food Security and Local Food Systems

Climate Change Leadership 19/3 2012 Center for Sustaianable Development (CSD)
Caroline Loohufvud, Human Geographer, Urban and Rural Farmer

Solutions and ways forward

Small scale & labour intense organic farming Agro-ecology
Diversified cropping systems Incorporation of perennials: trees, bushes, wild vegetation etc Reintegration of crop and animal production Nutrient recirculation Food sovereignty & Seasonal diet security Urban Agriculture & Gardening Preserving

Self-sufficency of greens

Local markets and cooperatives Cookalong parties & Growalong networks

Climate Change and Food Security

Adapting to Climate Change City of Rossland May 11, 2010

Climate Change and Food Security

Polly Ericksen Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford polly.ericksen@eci.ox.ac.uk

Climate Change & Sustainable Living

Diana Rashash, PhD, EI Area Specialized Agent Nat. Resources

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINING COMMUNITY HEALTH
MODERATED BY ILONA VARALLYAY, JENNIFER YOURKAVITCH, AND ERIC SARRIOT

Wednesday, September 15th

CORE Fall Meeting 2010

Consequences of a food security strategy for welfare, income distribution and land degradation: the Philippine case
Ian Coxhead University of Wisconsin-Madison

Consequences of climate change on food security in Africa

Ruth Haug
Noragric/UMB

FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN COMMONWEALTH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (CDCs)

BY T. OLALEKAN WILLIAMS Head, Enterprise & Agric Section

www.thecommonwealth.org

MODULE 3 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS AND FOOD PRODUCTION

Please select one of the following to continue:

Part I - Agriculture, food security and ecosystems: current and future challenges Module 1. An introduction to current and future challenges Module 2. Climate variability and climate change

Module 3. Impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems and food production

Module 4. Agriculture, environment and health Part II - Addressing challenges Module 5. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: technical considerations and Module 6. C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: supporting tools and policies About the information package How to use Credits Contact us examples of production systems

How to cite the information package

C. Licona Manzur and Rhodri P. Thomas (2011). Climate resilient and environmentally sound agriculture or climate -smart agriculture: An information package for government authorities. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Climate change, agriculture and food security: proven approaches and new investments, Policy Briefing 29, Brussels, 27 September 2012

Smallholder agriculture under climate change: challenges and outlook

Sonja Vermeulen, Head of Research CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

Impacts 4: Poorest at risk

By 2050, severe childhood stunting up by 23% in central Africa and 62% in South Asia
(uses IFPRI IMPACT model + socioeconomic models)

Lloyd et al. 2011 Environmental Health Perspectives

SSSN ANNUAL NATIONAL CONFERENCE, LAFIA MARCH 12 2013

SOIL DEGRADATION, FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

EMMANUEL OLADIPO
DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA

Keynote Address

A nation that destroys its soils destroys itself (Franklin Roosevelt, 32nd President of the Unites States)

Dinlediiniz in ok Teekkr Ederim

Thank you very much for listening me