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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
Projection Methodology Roundabout Communications compiles a Poll of Polls for the Electoral Projector. Most polling firms breakdown respondents by region. Therefore, Roundabout has divided our Poll of Polls into the following Regions of BC: Lower Mainland Vancouver Island Interior North
Below is a graph showing all the polls included with final date each poll was in the field and sample size. The bar indicates the weight of each poll out of one (1).
0.04 0.11 0.22 0.19 0.19 0.24 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 Value
March 12,2013 - Ipsos 1000 March 12,2013- Campaign Research March 19,2013 -Angus March 31,2013- Insight 882 809 855
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
Each poll's n , or number of respondents/ sample size, is divided by the total number of respondents to get the Initial Weight for each poll in the projector. A Time Penalty is then assessed based on time elapsed since last day of most recent poll. A subjective amount that reduces the value of a single poll over time. Roundabout uses a 0.013 reduction of each poll's weighted value as a percentage of total N per week. Each week is counted back from the last day of the most recent poll and rounded to nearest week. The algorithm is: (Weight of Poll's N Time Penalty ) x Poll N = Real Weight This value is then applied to each poll for each regions results. Applying Poll of Polls to Constituency Projections. Each Regional Poll of Polls is applied to each constituency result from the 2009 Election. In the cases of Vancouver-Point Grey, Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam have all had by-elections. These results have been applied to the projection at a weight of 1/3, with 2009 results being weighted at 2/3. The reasoning for having by-election results weighted lower are due to a few factors that include lower voter turn out, poor track record of incumbent governments in by-elections. However, being the most recent results can not be completely ignored, and must be included in the projection. We feel 1/3 is reasonable. In the case of the four (4) Independent incumbent MLAs. A general rule is applied to Incumbent MLAs that are running again but have left there party since the 2009 election. There are currently 2 of those seeking to be re-elected as an Independent. They have been awarded 60% of their 2009 results as a member of their former party. This effects Abbotsford South and Cariboo North. A high profile former BC Liberal has announced his intentions to run in Abbottsford West. He has been given 10% of the BC Liberal 2009 vote total.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
Bonuses One of our readers suggested that local bonuses for Star Candidates, Leaders and Incumbents could enhance constituency level projections. We've included in this month's projection. We are interested to here, your suggestions for others that may qualify for a bonus. Incumbent Bonus : +15% of projected total Applied to all incumbents. Party Leader Bonus: +25% Applied to Vancouver-Point Grey(Liberal),Vancouver-Kingsway (NDP),Langley(Conservative) and Victoria-Beacon Hill (Green) Star Candidate Bonus: +35% Applied to Langley(Conservative) and Oak Bay-Gordon Head (Green) Projection Changes from February 2013 Province wide % changes
Seats Change Vote % Change 27 +1 31.0% +0.1 54 -1 47.6% +0.1 0 10.8% +0.3 0 10.6% -0.5 4 2.5% -0.5 85
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
Regional changes
Northern BC Seats Change Vote % Change Lower Mainland Seats Change Vote % Change BC Liberal 16 - 31.1% +0.9 BC Liberal 2 - 30.7% +0.1 BC NDP 26 - 46.8% +1.3 BC NDP 5 - 42.2% -1.1 BC Green 0 - 8.5% -0.1 BC Green 0 - 10.3% +0.3 - 8.9% -1 BC Conservative 0 - 12.4% +0.4 BC Conservative 0 IND 2 - 2.4% -0.2 IND 1 - 4.3% +0.1 Total 8 Total 44
Seats Change Vote % Change 7 +1 32.0% +1.4 10 -1 39.0% -1.5 0 - 11.0% +1.1 0 - 13.8% 1 - 1.8% 18
Vancouver Island Seats Change Vote % Change BC Liberal 2 - 24.5% -1.9 BC NDP 13 - 50.2% +0.6 BC Green 0 - 14.3% +0.9 BC Conservative 0 - 9.4% +0.7 IND 0 - 1.6% -0.3 Total 15
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
Northern BC Nechako Lakes North Coast Peace River North Peace River South Prince George-Mackenzie Prince George-Valemount Skeena Stikine
BC NDP BC Green BC Con Ind 34.5% 10.7% 11.8% 59.3% 13.0% 10.1% 16.6% 0.0% 11.3% 44.0% 28.9% 12.3% 13.0% 38.7% 12.4% 10.1% 37.7% 11.6% 13.7% 56.2% 8.6% 16.5% 55.8% 9.0% 9.3%
BC BC NDP Green BC Con Ind 60.3% 9.2% 6.0% 35.1% 6.2% 15.6% 71.2% 11.8% 5.9% 59.9% 9.6% 12.1% 34.5% 12.7% 26.7% 26.7% 9.6% 17.0% 26.1% 9.9% 17.3% 32.8% 18.9% 15.5% 32.2% 14.2% 16.8% 32.3% 19.2% 14.2% 29.1% 10.9% 14.8% 49.8% 8.3% 6.7% 20.0% 0.0% 6.1% 41.6% 53.4% 8.9% 7.5% 43.2% 9.3% 7.8% 36.5% 9.8% 11.2% 45.7% 8.3% 22.3% 30.3% 12.2% 22.4%
Interior BC Columbia River-Revelstoke Kootenay East Kootenay West Nelson-Creston Boundary-Similkameen Kelowna-Lake Country Kelowna-Mission Penticton Shuswap Vernon-Monashee Westside-Kelowna Cariboo-Chilcotin Cariboo North Fraser-Nicola Kamloops-North Thompson Kamloops-South Thompson Chilliwack-Hope Chilliwack
BC Lib 23.3% 41.8% 8.8% 17.3% 24.8% 42.8% 44.6% 31.3% 33.9% 27.3% 44.0% 33.9% 31.0% 27.5% 36.8% 41.2% 20.1% 33.7%
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
Lower Mainland BC Abbotsford-Mission Abbotsford South Abbotsford West Fort Langley-Aldergrove Langley Maple Ridge-Mission Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Surrey-Cloverdale Surrey-Fleetwood Surrey-Green Timbers Surrey-Newton Surrey-Panorama Surrey-Tynehead Surrey-Whalley Surrey-White Rock Delta North Delta South Richmond Centre Richmond East Richmond-Steveston Burnaby-Deer Lake Burnaby-Edmonds Burnaby-Lougheed Burnaby North Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Coquitlam-Maillardville New Westminster Port Coquitlam Port Moody-Coquitlam Vancouver-Fairview Vancouver-False Creek Vancouver-Fraserview Vancouver-Hastings Vancouver-Kensington Vancouver-Kingsway Vancouver-Langara Vancouver-Mount Pleasant Vancouver-Point Grey Vancouver-Quilchena Vancouver-West End North Vancouver-Lonsdale North Vancouver-Seymour West Vancouver-Capilano West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
NDP 38.8% 31.5% 36.7% 34.3% 37.6% 52.9% 53.1% 36.1% 56.6% 78.7% 75.0% 46.0% 49.3% 75.0% 31.6% 56.5% 19.0% 35.3% 36.5% 31.6% 58.2% 61.3% 50.9% 51.6% 39.4% 54.0% 62.3% 64.0% 44.7% 46.3% 33.8% 51.5% 64.7% 61.9% 69.4% 38.8% 72.7% 40.0% 27.5% 65.7% 41.4% 31.6% 19.5% 29.3%
Green 10.8% 7.4% 7.5% 8.3% 8.3% 9.2% 7.3% 9.2% 8.0% 4.9% 6.6% 7.7% 6.0% 8.4% 9.7% 6.3% 0.0% 8.8% 7.8% 8.1% 6.8% 7.8% 8.5% 8.0% 7.3% 6.8% 10.7% 6.1% 5.1% 10.7% 14.8% 6.4% 11.0% 7.8% 4.7% 7.2% 14.4% 7.5% 10.7% 9.8% 9.8% 10.4% 8.5% 23.7%
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
Vancouver Island Alberni-Pacific Rim Comox Valley Cowichan Valley Nanaimo Nanaimo-North Cowichan North Island Parksville-Qualicum Esquimalt-Royal Roads Juan de Fuca Oak Bay-Gordon Head Saanich North and the Islands Saanich South Victoria-Beacon Hill Victoria-Swan Lake Powell River-Sunshine Coast
BC Liberal 18.8% 8.0% 22.9% 23.1% 22.4% 25.9% 40.0% 17.6% 21.0% 36.7% 33.5% 31.8% 13.7% 14.0% 28.9%
NDP 58.6% 63.7% 47.5% 52.7% 53.6% 51.3% 33.8% 52.2% 56.4% 36.4% 39.8% 46.4% 54.0% 59.7% 56.5%
Green 11.4% 16.7% 15.7% 13.0% 12.9% 11.4% 14.5% 20.2% 12.5% 17.1% 15.9% 10.9% 21.2% 15.7% 5.3%
BC Conserv ative 9.1% 9.0% 12.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 9.8% 9.2% 9.1% 8.9% 9.8% 9.2% 9.0% 9.1% 8.3%
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
Projection Analysis The March 2013 BC Election Projector's results have once again produced some small changes. Both major parties (BC NDP and BC Liberals) have gained some incremental ground from the smaller parties. The much anticipated BC Liberal crash in the polls, due to the myriad of scandals, has not materialized. We've changed up our analysis and brought in a rundown of each of the four main parties Swing Ridings. These are the individual constituencies that can make or break an election. They can turn a complete blow out into a slim loss, or a small victory into a rout. We've also added Regional Snapshot, a quick look at the changes, momentum and swings in each of the four regions of BC. As always, we will have a list of all the close races by region at the end. Regional Snapshot Northern BC BC NDP are down slightly more then 1%, but no seats change hands. Both Prince George seats are tightening up. Peace River North looks certain to elect an Independent. BC Interior The BC Interior shows the tightest race in all of the regions. The BC NDP has a slim 7 point lead compared to double digits elsewhere. This is mostly due to a very strong pocket of BC Liberal support in the Okanagan. Liberals and Greens gain, BC NDP drops slightly. Shuswao goes BC NDP to BC Liberal. Lower Mainland Both main parties grab around a one point increase from last month. Mostly at the expense of the BC Conservatives. BC Liberal strength is in pockets around the Lower Mainland mostly Richmond, North Shore and South Vancouver. Vancouver-Point Grey us tightening up and the Premier may lose her own seat. Vancouver Island The Island is solidly BC NDP with the exception of one Liberal stronghold and a tight NDP vs Liberal race. Oak Bay-Gordon Head is one of the closest contests in this election.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
BC Conservative Swing Ridings The BC Conservative party is difficult to project, and it may be likely that not all public opinion polls will pick up any BC Conservative momentum. However, there are a few ridings that the BC Conservative party is competitive and given a good bump in the polls would move into serious contention. The BC Conservative swing ridings as determined by Roundabout Communications are: Boundary-Similkameen Chilliwack Langley The BC Conservative party does not trail in any riding by 5% or less. The seats indicated are the parties three best chances at electing an MLA. BC Green Swing Ridings As with the BC Conservative party, it is very plausible that many of the major polling firms will register a possible Green surge. The BC Green vote tends to be concentrated on Vancouver Island and in pockets in the other regions. If the BC Greens continue their consistent gains in the polls, it is possible to elect their first MLA, The BC Green swing ridings as determined by Roundabout Communications are: West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Victoria-Beacon Hill Esquimalt-Royal Roads The BC Green party does not trail in any riding by 5% or less. The seats indicated are the parties three best chances at electing an MLA.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
Close Races by Region North: Nechako Lakes, Prince George-Valemount and Prince GeorgeMackenzie Interior: Shuswap, Vernon-Monshee, Chilliwack and Penticton Lower Mainland: Abbotsford-Mission, Langley, Vancouver-Point Grey and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Vancouver Island: Oak Bay-Gordon Head
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" -Yogi Berra