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No.

373 June 10, 2000

Dubious Anniversary
Kosovo One Year Later
by Christopher Layne and Benjamin Schwarz

Executive Summary

One year after NATO ended its bombing It is now clear that the administration’s claims of
campaign against Yugoslavia, the Clinton “horrific slaughter” and attempts at “genocide”
administration’s Kosovo policy is a conspicuous by the Serbs were gross exaggerations designed
failure. Kosovo is now the scene of a brutal eth- to whip up support for intervention from a skep-
nic cleansing campaign carried out by NATO’s tical Congress and public.
erstwhile de facto ally, the Kosovo Liberation Confronting Kosovo’s depressing prospects,
Army, an organization profoundly inimical to the administration consoles itself that, as
America’s interests and professed values. The President Clinton says, it “did the right thing
KLA is also currently fomenting an insurgency in the right way” when it intervened. Even
elsewhere in Serbia, which promises to destabi- granting that doubtful premise, this is not
lize the Balkans even further. enough to exonerate policymakers from their
The Clinton administration has embarked on responsibility for the situation the United
yet another multi-billion-dollar nation-building States confronts today. In the real world, poli-
adventure, which many analysts suggest will cymakers are judged by the consequences of
entangle the U.S. military for a decade or longer. their actions, not by their intentions. The
This situation could have been avoided. Because Kosovo war has not vindicated the administra-
of its inept diplomacy and strategic miscalcula- tion’s doctrine of “virtuous power.” By waging
tion, the administration bears a large measure of an avoidable war, the Clinton administration
responsibility for both Kosovo’s humanitarian has saddled the United States with a host of
crisis a year ago and the KLA’s postwar thuggery. intractable problems.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Christopher Layne is a visiting fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. Benjamin Schwarz is a
correspondent for the Atlantic Monthly.
Washington’s arbitrary arrests and attempts to
declared objec- Introduction restrict freedom of expression. House
burnings, blockades restricting free-
tives of bringing One year ago, NATO concluded 78 days of dom of movement, discriminatory
stability to the intense bombing against Yugoslavia. The U.S.- treatment in schools, hospitals,
led campaign was the most aggressive test to humanitarian aid distribution and
Balkans and date of the Clinton administration’s self- other public services based on ethnic
building multi- styled doctrine of “virtuous power”—the background, and forced evictions
ethnic democracy notion that the United States should inter- from housing recall some of the worst
vene in other countries’ internal conflicts practices of Kosovo’s recent past. . . .
in Kosovo have when American sensibilities are outraged. In many of the cases . . . there are seri-
been conspicuous Although the United States and its allies won ous indications that the perpetrators
a military victory of sorts, Washington’s of human rights violations are either
failures.
declared objectives of bringing stability to the members of the former KLA, people
Balkans and building multiethnic democracy passing themselves off as members of
in Kosovo have been conspicuous failures. the former KLA or members of other
That result was entirely foreseeable, and now armed Albanian groups.2
the United States and its allies may well find
themselves pulled further into the quagmire In March 2000 analysts at the Brussels-
as the Kosovo conflict enters a new phase: the based International Crisis Group were
United States and NATO are drifting toward reporting that, notwithstanding the Clinton
armed confrontation with their erstwhile ally, administration’s claims that the KLA had
the Kosovo Liberation Army, which is still demilitarized, the KLA
bent on forging a “Greater Albania.”
in its various manifestations . . .
The New Ethnic Cleansing remains a powerful and active ele-
The bankruptcy of the Clinton adminis- ment in almost every element of
tration’s Kosovo policy became obvious in Kosovo life. . . . The KLA was never
the weeks preceding the one-year anniversary rigidly structured, resembling more
of the commencement of NATO’s bombing, an association of clans than a hierar-
but there were earlier signals as well. chical military force. Some parts of
Foremost among them was the ongoing the old KLA operate openly and
deadly violence committed by ethnic essentially as before; others have
Albanians trying to expel the remaining non- been transformed; some new ele-
Albanian populations from the province.1 In ments have been added; and much
a December 1999 report, the Organization remains underground.3
for Security and Cooperation in Europe con-
cluded that the attacks on Serbs and other
non-Albanians were orchestrated by the sup- NATO’s Rationalizations
posedly disbanded KLA. According to the During the first two months of 2000,
report, which catalogs the human rights vio- most of the trouble in Kosovo centered on
lations committed in Kosovo from the time the northern town of Mitrovica—where
50,000 heavily armed NATO troops entered NATO peacekeepers were caught in the cross-
Kosovo until October 1999, ethnic violence fire between Serbs and ethnic Albanians.
aimed at Serbs and other non-Albanians Among the incidents were a confrontation
included between rock-throwing Serbs and U.S. sol-
diers and an ethnic Albanian–instigated
executions, abductions, torture, cruel, attack that wounded some two dozen Serbs
inhuman and degrading treatment, and 16 French peacekeepers.4 NATO secre-

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tary-general George Robertson minimized recently reported the massing of Serbian
the relevance of the violence in Mitrovica by troops in “Yugoslav-held territory” without a
blithely pointing out that “the murder rate hint about why they were gathering indicates
[in Kosovo] has declined from over 50 per how well such a strategy works.) As a UN offi-
week in June 1999 to around five per week cial in Kosovo said, the KLA is “hoping that
today.”5 Similarly, NATO commander Gen. the Serbs will retaliate with excessive force
Wesley Clark asserted, “The level of violence against civilian populations and create a
[in Kosovo] has come down remarkably, and wave of outrage and pressure on KFOR
what remains is primarily organized crime [NATO’s Kosovo Force] to respond.”9
and family violence.”6 Robertson and Clark, Belatedly awakening to the danger posed
however, failed to point out that the murder by the KLA’s cross-border insurgency, U.S.
rate has fallen precisely because Kosovo has forces on March 16 raided the arms caches
been virtually cleansed of non-Albanian mur- and other logistical infrastructure used by
der targets. To put it another way, Robertson the KLA to sustain its operations within
and Clark point to Kosovo’s declining mur- Serbia.1 0 In mid-April peacekeeping troops in
der rate as evidence of NATO’s “success,” Kosovo arrested 12 ethnic Albanians on
when in fact it is evidence of NATO’s failure charges of illegal possession of arms and
to stop the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo’s other military materiel after the driver of a The KLA is
minority populations. truck failed to stop when flagged down at a fomenting an
Outside Mitrovica, ethnic Albanian terror checkpoint. In the truck, peacekeepers found insurgency
attacks on Kosovo’s remaining Serbs have 80 anti-tank mines, 40 hand grenades, and
continued in an ongoing pattern of violence large quantities of guns and ammunition.1 1 across the
that has been orchestrated by the KLA since And in late April NATO peacekeepers arrest- provincial bor-
the NATO bombing ended.7 On at least two ed four ethnic Albanians after a house search
occasions in February, UN authorities in the town of Sedlare yielded hand grenades, der, in Serbia’s
warned that violence by ethnic Albanians AK-47 assault rifles, and ammunition.1 2 Four predominantly
against Serbs was increasing throughout ethnic Albanians were detained near the ethnic Albanian–
Kosovo, and in March the UN warned that town of Djakovica after peacekeepers discov-
Kosovo’s new national guard, the Kosovo ered various weapons, ammunition, and inhabited
Protection Corps—composed of former KLA explosives.1 3 Presevo valley.
guerrillas—was engaged in illegal activities
and human rights abuses.8
Hoodwinking Washington
Disorder Spreading outside Kosovo
Even more troubling than the ongoing Notwithstanding the downward spiral of
attacks on Kosovo’s Serbs is that the KLA is events in Kosovo, and the KLA’s role in
fomenting an insurgency across the provin- fomenting the instability, U.S. officials—
cial border, in Serbia’s predominantly ethnic notably Secretary of State Madeleine
Albanian–inhabited Presevo valley—which Albright in a March 8 speech in Prague—have
the KLA calls “Eastern Kosovo.” In a disturb- labeled Belgrade the chief instigator of vio-
ing replay of the strategy it used from early lence in Kosovo. Clearly, the regime of
1998 until the NATO bombing campaign Slobodan Milosevic is not an innocent
commenced, the KLA is attacking Serbian bystander, but the KLA has indisputably
policemen and civilians—and ethnic been the heavy in Kosovo since NATO ended
Albanians loyal to Belgrade—in the hope of its bombing campaign. Exemplifying the
provoking Yugoslav authorities into a Clinton administration’s Alice-in-Wonder-
response that will incite the United States land version of the situation, in her Prague
and NATO to resume the war with speech Albright blamed “extremists” on both
Yugoslavia. (That ABC’s World News Tonight sides but exempted the KLA, which she

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praised for “having met its commitment to administration’s declared objectives of bring-
demobilize.” She stated that a “spirit of toler- ing stability to the Balkans and multiethnic
ance and inter-ethnic cooperation” will take democracy to Kosovo.
root in Kosovo as the province’s “democratic
forces” come to power.1 4 The KLA’s Empty Promises
America’s chief diplomat should have a From the very start, the KLA’s proclama-
better grasp of Kosovo’s realities. The KLA tions that it would disarm and promote mul-
leadership is largely made up of disparate and tiethnic democracy in Kosovo have been
unsavory elements: radical Islamic fundamen- loudly advertised by Clinton administration
talists, communists, drug traffickers, crimi- officials. But those proclamations have con-
nals, and ideological heirs of the ethnic sistently turned out to be empty words. In
Albanians who fought for the Nazis in World the most outrageous example of this, the
War II.15 The KLA’s leaders hold political Clinton administration pressured Hashim
power among Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians, and Thaçi, the putative leader of the KLA, to take
its membership forms the backbone of the a public stand against the wave of ethnic vio-
province’s de facto governmental structure.1 6 lence that swept across Kosovo after NATO
Militarily, the notion that the KLA has “demo- arrived in June 1999. Thaçi relented and
bilized” is a fiction; it has merely gone under- posted a call for an end the violence on the
ground. Contrary to Albright’s assertions, its KLA’s Web site. The Clinton administration
members are certainly extremists: The KLA is characterized the move as a great stride in
committed to taking power in Kosovo, not to ethnic reconciliation, but because of the
practicing democracy (indeed, it has been war’s destruction, very few people in Kosovo
implicated in attacks against more moderate actually have Internet access. Thaçi’s posting
ethnic Albanian leaders).1 7 It hasn’t the slight- was also in English, a language widely under-
est interest in a multiethnic Kosovo; it wants stood by international journalists but not by
to purge the province of its non-ethnic- most people in Kosovo. Meanwhile, Kosova
Albanian populations. Press, a news agency with ties to the KLA,
Since NATO arrived last June, Human issued veiled death threats to Veton Surroi
Rights Watch estimates that more than and Baton Haxhiu, when their Albanian-lan-
164,000 Serbs and Gypsies have been driven guage newspaper, Koha Ditore, criticized the
out of or have left Kosovo.1 8 In Kosovo’s cap- revenge attacks on Serbs and others. 21
The KLA hasn’t ital, Pristina, only 400 Serbs, of a prewar pop- If that does not raise skepticism about the
ulation of 40,000, remain. Other sources sug- KLA’s commitment to Washington’s goal of
the slightest gest that as many as 240,000 non-Albanians creating a multiethnic Kosovo, more recent
interest in a (Serbs, Gypsies, Gorani, Croats, Turks, and events certainly should. In March a KLA-
Jews) have fled the province, while those who spawned guerrilla group promised U.S. diplo-
multiethnic are too old or too poor to leave have steadily mats that it would end its insurgency in
Kosovo; it wants moved into NATO-protected enclaves.1 9 southern Serbia. “We’re happy they did it,”
to purge the Moreover, in the 12 months since NATO said one U.S. official. “We gave them a tough
arrived, 74 Serbian Orthodox churches have message, and they believed it.”22 The head of
province of its been destroyed or vandalized by ethnic the U.S. negotiating team, Christopher Dell,
non-ethnic- Albanian extremists.20 And, contrary to the welcomed the promise, saying it was “an
policy of the United States and its allies, the important first step.”23 The KLA group subse-
Albanian
KLA wants Kosovo to become an indepen- quently took no steps to live up to its pledge.
populations. dent state—as the springboard to creating a Indeed, according to the Washington Post,
Greater Albania comprising Kosovo, Albania,
and the parts of Serbia and Macedonia that Despite the agreement . . . these mili-
are populated by ethnic Albanians. The tiamen have continued to wear uni-
KLA’s ambitions can’t be reconciled with the forms and conduct training exercises

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with AK-47 assault rifles in and April 17.2 8 Reinhardt’s concerns were under- The March and
around the village of Dubrosin, which scored by reports the same day of a grenade April arms
lies in a neutral zone between U.S. attack on a Serbian police checkpoint on the
forces in Kosovo and Yugoslav forces other side of the Kosovo boundary with the seizures by KFOR
in Serbia proper. In addition, some rest of Serbia.2 9 may prove to be
members of the militia group have
continued to cross back and forth Washington’s Dilemma
the opening
between the U.S.-patrolled area of Predictably, the Clinton administration’s round of the next
Kosovo and the neutral zone, where policy has trapped the United States and conflict in
they undergo military training.2 4 NATO in a political quagmire. Washington
has hesitated to crack down on the KLA, Kosovo—a con-
because U.S. leaders know that the KLA flict pitting
The UN Human Rights Commission could retaliate against the NATO troops
peacekeepers
Report deployed in Kosovo. The March and April
Not all diplomats are as gullible as the arms seizures by KFOR may prove to be the against the KLA.
Clinton administration’s, however. Jiri opening round of the next conflict in
Dienstbier, former foreign minister of the Kosovo—a conflict pitting peacekeepers
Czech Republic and now a UN special envoy against the KLA. As a senior NATO officer
for human rights, recently submitted a 53- said after the raids: “We have now fired the
page report to the UN Human Rights first shot at the Albanian insurgents, and
Commission in which he sharply criticizes insurgents have a tendency to carry a grudge.
NATO’s air war against Yugoslavia and the If they come to see us as an enemy, then
KLA’s subsequent actions. According to today was a turning point.”3 0Even if the raids
Dienstbier: “The bombing hasn’t solved any don’t trigger a conflict between peacekeepers
problems. It only multiplied the existing and the KLA, the KLA may turn against
problems and created new ones.”2 5 KFOR anyway, unless the UN and NATO
Dienstbier has called for a crackdown on eth- grant its demand for an independent
nic Albanian extremists in Kosovo, noting Kosovo, which they are loath to do, since
that “historical experience tells us that such an outcome would spark a new round
attempts to compromise with extremist of Balkan warfare. If NATO simply decided
forces lead nowhere and only create condi- to cut its losses and leave the province, the
tions for further violations of human outcome would be similarly bleak: Serbia and
rights.”26 He has accused, in particular, the KLA would be back at each other’s
extremist leaders of the supposedly dissolved throats. The Clinton administration has
KLA and former Albanian president Sali painted the United States and its allies into a
Berisha of destabilizing the Presevo valley dangerous corner.
with a view to creating a Greater Albania.2 7 At the same time, the administration has
Voicing similar concerns, Gen. Klaus saddled the United States with another open-
Reinhardt, the former commander of NATO’s ended and expensive nation-building mission
peacekeeping KFOR, has warned that ten- in the Balkans. Joseph Collins, a retired Army
sions between Serbs and Abanians could colonel and coauthor of an extensive study on
result in new fighting, this time outside the the state of today’s military, estimates that
province of Kosovo. One of Reinhardt’s main NATO ground forces will be in Kosovo for a
concerns is the Presevo valley, where former decade “at a minimum.”31 Ivo Daalder, a for-
KLA rebels have been increasingly active. mer foreign policy adviser to President
Reinhardt has expressed skepticism that the Clinton and now an analyst with the
group is dedicated to peace. “Frankly, when we Brookings Institution, is not so optimistic: “If
see them training with mortars . . . I do not you ask me 25 years from now if I’m surprised
believe them,” Reinhardt told reporters on that troops are still in Kosovo, I’ll have to say

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‘no.’”3 2 At a cost to the United States of from Bosnia is becoming a multiethnic state, the
$2 billion $2.5 billion per year, according to truth is that the war there ended with Bosnia’s
defense analysts, Clinton’s Kosovo policy de facto partition into separate Serbian,
could end up costing American taxpayers Muslim, and Croatian entities, and an uneasy
more than $60 billion on top of the $2 billion peace prevails only because the three groups
to $3 billion the United States spent bombing continue to live apart. Similarly, the conflict
Yugoslavia for 11 weeks.3 3 between Serbia and Croatia ended in 1995
only when the Croatian army (with the tacit
blessing of the United States) succeeded in
An Avoidable War expelling Croatia’s Serbian minority.

Had the United States avoided last year’s Washington’s Myopia about the Kosovo
war, the present situation could have been Struggle
averted. Because of its inept diplomacy and At Rambouillet, instead of considering
strategic miscalculation, the administration partition and seeking serious negotiations
bears a large measure of responsibility for with Belgrade, the Clinton administration
Kosovo’s humanitarian crisis a year ago and presented the Serbs with an ultimatum they
Because of its for the KLA’s postwar emergence as the dom- were certain to reject. Among other things,
inept diplomacy inant political force in Kosovo. That is the Belgrade would have been required to allow
and strategic Kosovo war’s dirty little secret. NATO forces, not only into Kosovo, but into
Although the background of the Kosovo the rest of Yugoslavia and to accept the near
miscalculation, crisis is complex, its immediate cause is read- certainty that a KLA-led Kosovo would
the administra- ily identifiable: the irreconcilable aims of the become an independent state after a three-
Serbian leadership and the province’s ethnic year transition period. Washington then
tion bears a large Albanian nationalists. As the overwhelming used Belgrade’s refusal as a pretext to justify
measure of majority of the province’s population, most bombing.3 4 Instead of dealing with the
responsibility for of Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians have invoked Kosovo question within its own historical
the principle of national self-determination and political context, Albright and other U.S.
Kosovo’s humani- and seek complete independence from officials saw the conflict there through the
tarian crisis a year Serbia. The Serbs, calling on the principle of prism of the 1930s. Milosevic was like Hitler,
national sovereignty, reject independence an insatiable dictator with whom negotia-
ago and for the
because the province has deep historical and tion was tantamount to appeasement.
KLA’s postwar cultural significance to them. The obvious Notwithstanding that Yugoslavia was
emergence as the solution would have been to partition the engaged in a counterinsurgency against
province at the Rambouillet talks that pre- secessionist KLA rebels on its sovereign terri-
dominant politi- ceded the war. tory, the administration held that Belgrade
cal force in In Kosovo, neither the ethnic Albanians was wholly responsible for the conflict and
Kosovo. nor the Serbs have ever shown any inclination that the KLA was blameless.
to realize the Clinton administration’s vision Committed to gaining independence for
of a society shaped by the values of democracy, Kosovo by waging a guerrilla war against
diversity, and tolerance. As they are elsewhere Serbia, the KLA had emerged in early
in the Balkans, ethnic fragmentation, compe- 1998—attacking Serbian police, waging an
tition for power, and the intermingling of assassination campaign against Serbian
populations are a combustible mix. Ethnic officials in Kosovo, and targeting various
identities are so hardened that there is little government buildings and installations.3 5
room for cross-ethnic compromise: each The Serbian reprisal—a harsh military
group can be secure only by attaining physical crackdown on KLA strongholds in rural
control over the territory in dispute. Thus, Kosovo—exacerbated the spiral of violence.
although Secretary Albright claims that There were several notorious massacres of

6
ethnic Albanians in KLA-controlled areas. Moreover, as the recent PBS Frontline series
Thus, the war in Kosovo before the NATO and the BBC documentary on the Kosovo war
bombing was a particularly brutal form of make clear—and as the U.S. intelligence com-
modern conflict, a counterinsurgency by a munity warned the Clinton administration in
sovereign government against a guerrilla force. early 1999—the KLA was waging its insur-
In counterinsurgencies, civilians inescapably gency for the calculated purpose of provoking
become targets because the guerrillas draw Serbian reprisals. The KLA knew it could not
their manpower, material sustenance, and defeat Belgrade on its own, so, to advance the
political support from the friendly popula- cause of independence for Kosovo, it needed
tion in whose name they fight. to bring into play the military might of the
Although both parties in this struggle United States and NATO. Dugi Gorani, a
acted savagely, and clearly the Yugoslav secu- Kosovo Albanian negotiator interviewed in
rity forces committed war crimes, they did the BBC documentary, bluntly pointed out,
not constitute genocide. It’s widely agreed “The more civilians killed, the chances of
that from the beginning of 1998 until March international intervention became bigger, and
24, 1999—a period of 15 months—approxi- the KLA of course realized that.”3 9“Any action
mately 1,800 civilians, overwhelmingly eth- we undertook would bring [Serbian] retalia-
nic Albanians but also Serbs, died in Kosovo tion against civilians,” admitted Thaçi. “We
as a result of the fighting and of deliberate knew we were endangering a great number of
massacres. On March 20, 1999—four days civilian lives.”4 0
before the start of the NATO bombing—the
New York Times reported that there were Truth: The First Casualty of War
20,000 ethnic Albanian refugees in Kosovo, The Clinton administration, of course,
but they were attempting to flee the fighting allowed itself to be manipulated by such tac-
between the KLA and the Yugoslav army and tics. The administration based its decision to
were not targets of systematic ethnic cleans- bomb Yugoslavia following the failure at
ing.3 6Before the start of the NATO bombing Rambouillet on a serious miscalculation that
campaign on March 24, the Yugoslav army’s had catastrophic consequences for both
operations were directed at rooting out the Yugoslavian civilians and Kosovo’s ethnic
KLA from its strongholds, not at forcibly Albanian population. President Clinton and
expelling ethnic Albanians from the his advisers continue to justify intervention,
province.37 asserting that if the United States had not
The Clinton administration portrayed stepped in, the Serbs would have gotten away
Yugoslavia’s actions in Kosovo as almost with massive ethnic cleansing. Or, as Albright The war in
unprecedentedly brutal, but to put the put it, if America hadn’t acted, “hundreds of
unquestionable brutality of the Yugoslav thousands of refugees would still be huddled Kosovo before
government’s counterinsurgency campaign in camps throughout southeast Europe.”4 1 the NATO bomb-
into perspective, it’s helpful to recall anoth- Such declarations fundamentally distort the ing was a particu-
er attempt to root out guerrillas. Military factual record.
analyst Jeffrey Record describes U.S. tactics Weeks after the bombing began, the larly brutal form
in Vietnam: “Firepower was deliberately Clinton administration claimed that of modern con-
employed to depopulate—by death or aban- Belgrade apparently had a contingency
donment—entire rural areas of Vietnam. plan—Operation Horseshoe—designed to
flict, a counterin-
During the war, at least 50 percent of South drive the ethnic Albanians out of Kosovo. But surgency by a sov-
Vietnam’s peasantry was involuntarily planning is one thing, implementation ereign govern-
urbanized by combat in the countryside . . . another. The massive forced expulsion of eth-
and by 1968 refugees alone accounted for 5 nic Albanians, and the consequent humani- ment against a
million of South Vietnam’s total popula- tarian disaster, began only after NATO start- guerrilla force.
tion of 17 million.”3 8 ed bombing. Both the Pentagon and the U.S.

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Not until NATO intelligence community had warned the Joschka Fischer, the German foreign minis-
began its bomb- Clinton foreign policy team that Belgrade ter, on April 6, 1999, almost two weeks after
would respond to NATO air strikes by under- NATO started bombing Serbia and at a time
ing did taking such an ejection of Kosovo’s ethnic when German public opinion about the
Belgrade’s objec- Albanians and that the bombing campaign Luftwaffe’s participation in the air strikes was
would not be able to stop it.4 2 divided. Horseshoe—or Potkova, as the
tive in Kosovo The administration’s claims to the con- German authorities said it was known in
change from trary notwithstanding, the record is clear: not Belgrade—thereafter became a staple of
counterinsur- until NATO began its bombing did NATO briefings and was presented as proof
Belgrade’s objective in Kosovo change from that Milosevic had planned to expel Kosovo’s
gency to a delib- counterinsurgency to a deliberate campaign ethnic Albanians all along. State Department
erate campaign to expel the province’s ethnic Albanians.4 3 spokesman James Rubin cited Operation
Indeed, the State Department has conceded Horseshoe as recently as March 2000 to justi-
to expel the
that point. As its report on the brutality in fy NATO’s bombardment. However, Heinz
province’s ethnic Kosovo acknowledges: Loquai, a retired brigadier general in the
Albanians. German army who now works for the OSCE,
In late March 1999, Serbian forces dra- claims that the Horseshoe “plan” was fabri-
matically increased the scope and pace of cated from run-of-the-mill Bulgarian intelli-
their efforts, moving away from selec- gence reports.4 8 Loquai has accused Rudolf
tive targeting of towns and regions Scharping, the German defense minister, of
suspected of KLA sympathies obscuring the questionable origins of
towards a sustained and systematic Operation Horseshoe, and he claims that the
effort to ethnically cleanse the entire German Defense Ministry turned a
province of Kosovo.44 Bulgarian intelligence agency analysis of
Serbian wartime behavior into a “plan,” and
Similarly, a December 1999 report issued by even coined the name “Horseshoe.” Loquai
the OSCE makes it clear that NATO’s bomb- points to a fundamental flaw in the German
ing triggered the humanitarian catastrophe account: it named the operation Potkova,
military intervention was ostensibly which is the Croatian word for horseshoe.
designed to avert. Indeed, according to the The Serbian word for horseshoe is Potkovica.
report, “Summary and arbitrary killing “A state prosecutor would never think of
became a generalized phenomenon through- going to trial with the amount of evidence
out Kosovo with the beginning of the NATO air available to the German defense ministry,”
campaign against the Federal Republic of says Loquai. “The facts to support its exis-
Yugoslavia on the night of March 24–25.”4 5 tence are at best terribly meager,” he con-
On March 25 President Clinton declared: tends. “I have come to the conclusion that no
“Our purpose is to prevent a humanitarian such operation ever existed.”49
catastrophe or a wider war.”46 But NATO’s Disregard for the truth was the hallmark
air campaign triggered the very debacle it was of the Clinton administration’s Kosovo poli-
said to be preventing. The Clinton adminis- cy. To whip up support for the war from a
tration had been told that expulsion of eth- doubtful Congress and public, the adminis-
nic Albanians would be the likely result of air tration made exaggerated claims about
strikes, and it thus bears a major share of the Serbian brutality. Once the bombing cam-
blame for the humanitarian crisis that paign was under way, U.S. officials alleged
ensued. 47 that the Serbs were perpetuating, as Defense
Moreover, there is increasing reason to Secretary William Cohen described it, a “hor-
question the credibility of the Operation rific slaughter” in Kosovo. Administration
Horseshoe account. The existence of the and NATO officials repeatedly invoked the
operation was originally publicized by specter of the Holocaust and averred that

8
Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians were the victims yielded no evidence of mass murder.
of genocide. The administration repeated, as Whatever the final determination with
if they were indisputably true, unconfirmed respect to the number of civilian deaths
refugee reports of mass murders and other inflicted by the Yugoslav army in Kosovo, it is
outrages—even though those reports were fil- certain to be far smaller than the Clinton
tered through the hardly unbiased KLA. administration and NATO claimed—and not
During the war, NATO officials declared that on a scale remotely close to genocide.5 5
Serbian forces had killed 100,000 ethnic
Albanians. Even after the war, in June 1999,
Clinton claimed that “NATO stopped delib- A Conspicuous
erate, systematic efforts at . . . genocide.”5 0 Policy Failure
That is exaggeration. Once NATO began
bombing, the Yugoslav army’s offensive in Washington stumbled into a war it could
Kosovo had two objectives, neither of which have avoided and thereby precipitated a
involved genocide. First, by expelling ethnic humanitarian crisis. The war’s only benefi-
Albanians from the province, Serbian forces ciary has been the KLA, which has skillfully
aimed to restrict the guerrillas’ base of sup- manipulated the Clinton administration
port and cover. By controlling the borders into acting as its de facto agent, even though The KLA has
and the devastated corridors along the major the KLA’s goals and values are profoundly skillfully manipu-
highways, the Yugoslav army sought to iso- antithetical to America’s interests and pro- lated the Clinton
late the KLA in and then eradicate it from the fessed values.
forests and mountains.5 1 Second, Serbian The fallout from Kosovo has also inflicted administration
forces pursued the broader political objective incalculable damage on America’s relations into acting as its
of reversing the demographic trend in with Russia and China. To be sure,
Kosovo that, largely because of differential Washington’s ties to Moscow and Beijing were de facto agent.
birthrates, had seen ethnic Albanians come troubled even before the war, but the interven-
to compose 90 percent of the province’s pre- tion in Kosovo severely exacerbated those ten-
war population. In stepping up action sions. Moscow and Beijing found the admin-
against Kosovo’s ethnic Albanians, Serbian istration’s Kosovo policy worrisome on two,
forces were, as the New York Times stated, interconnected, levels. First, Washington’s
“seeking to defuse a potential demographic decision to intervene in the Balkans under-
time bomb,” but their goal was “depopula- scored the extent to which the United States is
tion rather than extermination.”5 2 preponderant in world politics and illustrated
NATO’s claims during the war about the the scope of America’s hegemonic ambitions.
number of ethnic Albanians killed by the Second, as states that confront their own vex-
Yugoslav forces and President Clinton’s post- ing internal issues, Russia and China were
war assertion that the Serbs had slaughtered unsettled by the precedent Kosovo appeared
“tens of thousands” have proved false.5 3 to establish: that the United States would
Indeed, it appears that even NATO’s revised intervene forcibly in the internal affairs of sov-
postwar estimate of 10,000 ethnic Albanians ereign states. In both countries, American
killed is significantly exaggerated. To date, actions in Kosovo turned popular and elite
forensic specialists working under UN aus- opinion against the United States and engen-
pices have exhumed 2,108 bodies.54 It is far dered strong nationalist sentiment. In both
from certain that all of the victims perished countries, the political and military leader-
as a result of Serbian atrocities; some bodies ships seem to have drawn the same lesson:
may be those of combatants, or civilians through alliances, and the buildup of their
caught in crossfire between the Yugoslav respective military capabilities, Russia and
army and the KLA or killed by NATO bombs. China must act, for their own security, to
Moreover, many of the alleged gravesites have counterbalance America’s hegemonic power.

9
The Kosovo war Moscow and Beijing have moved toward a It is precisely this sort of confrontation and
probably will be strategic partnership aimed at countering escalation that the UN Charter’s ban on
American power and restoring a multipolar intervention is designed to prevent.
viewed as the world.5 6 Russia now supplies China with The Kosovo war probably will also be
geopolitical turn- advanced fighter aircraft, sophisticated anti- viewed several decades hence as the geopoliti-
ship missiles, and modern guided-missile cal turning point that caused Europe to
ing point that destroyers to thwart U.S. ambitions in East emancipate itself from American tutelage—
caused Europe to Asia.57 Moscow and Beijing also have jointly and thereby shattered NATO—by moving
emancipate itself declared their opposition to the “use of pre- concretely toward becoming an independent
texts such as human rights and humanitarian actor in international security affairs and
from American intervention to harm the independence of sov- deliberately setting out to constitute itself as a
tutelage—and ereign states.”5 8 geopolitical counterweight to American hege-
The Kosovo precedent also has troubling mony. The Kosovo war has underscored for
thereby shattered
implications for the UN Charter’s role as a the West Europeans, who were already
NATO. safeguard against war. Indeed, there is a rea- alarmed by their military inferiority to the
son the UN Charter has a general prohibition United States and resentful of their continued
against military intervention and accords cer- dependence on Washington, the enormous
tain countries permanent veto power on the disparity between their collective military
Security Council. Any legitimization of armed capabilities and those of the United States,
intervention not sanctioned by the UN especially U.S. superiority at the high end of
enlarges the number of global matters over military technology, and reminded the West
which countries can disagree. That not only Europeans that they remain dependent on
increases the potential for dispute; it also runs Washington for maintenance of stability and
the risk of triggering an unforeseen military security on the Continent. They now recog-
escalation and confrontation, especially dan- nize that they need to give substance to the
gerous prospects in an era of nuclear weapons. concept of a common European defense and
As legal scholar B. V. A. Röling has succinctly security policy by developing their own
pointed out: The UN Charter’s prohibition advanced military capabilities (including
against armed intervention satellite reconnaissance; command, control,
and communication; precision-guided muni-
is the fundamental premise on tions; and power projection).60
which the United Nations is built. It To be sure, the European Union has rhetor-
is not a mere expression of peace ically invoked the time-tested formula that the
euphoria at the end of a devastating “European security and defense identity” is
[world] war. It is not just some kind intended to make Western Europe an equal
of luxury designed to make life more partner in the Atlantic Alliance, but the reality
pleasant. It is not an illusion is different. A NATO with two truly equal
indulged in by ivory-tower legalists “twin pillars” is unlikely to endure. A Europe
to feed their own complacency and with defense capabilities equivalent to
self-importance. It is the pre-condi- America’s no longer would need Washington’s
tion of life itself in the atomic era.59 protection, or the tutelage that goes with it.
And, by the same token, if Europe demon-
Bypassing the Security Council to avoid a strates that it is capable of standing on its own
probable veto (as the NATO countries did military feet, the domestic U.S. consensus in
during the Kosovo conflict) only procedural- favor of the American military presence in
ly avoids the veto of other major powers. Europe probably will ebb. The major irony of
Their objections may remain intact, and they Clinton’s “victory” in Kosovo—a war that
may choose to then exercise another kind of Washington fought primarily to establish the
veto—countering the intervention with force. credibility of the new, post–Cold War NATO—

10
is that the conflict’s aftermath may well accel- 2. Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe, “Kosovo/Kosova: As Seen, As Told, Part
erate the drifting apart of America and II, June to October 1999,” December 6, 1999,
Western Europe in security affairs. http://www.osce.org/indexe-se.htm.
What is more, U.S. strong-arming before
and during the Kosovo conflict and subse- 3. International Crisis Group, “What Happened
to the KLA?” March 3, 2000, pp. 1–2, http://www.
quent transatlantic wrangling have alienated crisisweb.org/projects/sbalkans/reports/
many of America’s West European allies. kos33rep.htm.
Indeed, during the U.S.-engineered talks
between Serbs and ethnic Albanians in 4. Carlotta Gall, “Serbs Stone U.S. Troops in
Divided Kosovo Town,” New York Times, February
Rambouillet, France, French foreign minister 21, 2000 (online ed.); Carlotta Gall, “Violence
Hubert Vedrine described the United States Erupts Anew in Torn Kosovo City,” New York
as a “hyperpower” and said that the United Times, March 8, 2000 (online ed.); and “Dozens
States must stop unilaterally imposing its Are Injured in Kosovo Street Violence,” Los Angeles
Times, March 8, 2000. The incident was not
will on the rest of the world.6 1 And many reported at all in the March 8 edition of the
West European officials are now concerned Washington Post and didn’t rate a front-page story
that the U.S. State Department’s orchestra- in the Paris-based International Herald Tribune. See
tion of events in Kosovo may be destabilizing Barbara Crossette, “French Peacekeepers Wounded
the peacekeeping operation there.6 2 in Mitrovica,” International Herald Tribune, March In the real world,
8, 2000, p. 5.
Confronting Kosovo’s depressing pros- policymakers are
pects, the administration consoles itself that, 5. George Robertson, “Kosovo One Year On:
judged by the
as the president says, it “did the right thing in Achievement and Challenge,” March 21, 2000,
the right way” when it intervened. Even http://www.nato.int/kosovo/repo2000/intro.htm. consequences of
granting that doubtful premise, this is not 6. Quoted in Suzanne Daley, “NATO Secretary their actions, not
enough to exonerate policymakers from their General’s Report Claims Successes in Kosovo,”
responsibility for the situation the United New York Times, March 22, 2000, p. A11. by their inten-
States confronts today. In the real world, pol- 7. Irena Guzelova, “Bloodshed Continues for
tions.
icymakers are judged by the consequences of Serbs,” Financial Times, February 16, 2000 (online
their actions, not by their intentions. The ed.); Carlotta Gall, “2 Killed As Rocket Hits a U.N.
Kosovo war has not vindicated the adminis- Bus for Serbs in Kosovo,” New York Times,
February 3, 2000 (online ed.); and Peter Finn,
tration’s doctrine of “virtuous power.” By “Gunmen Kill Serb in Cafe in Kosovo,” Washington
waging an avoidable war, Clinton and his Post, December 19, 1999.
advisers only stuck the United States with a
host of intractable problems they should 8. R. Jeffrey Smith, “Kosovo Albanian Unit Is
have foreseen. Accused of Abuses,” Washington Post, March 15,
2000, p. A24; Edita Bucinca, “UN Says Attacks on
Kosovo Serbs Mounting,” Reuters, February 28,
2000; and R. Jeffrey Smith, “U.N. Says Kosovo
Notes Still Too Violent,” Washington Post, February 12,
2000, p. A15.
1. For representative accounts of the postwar vio-
lence in Kosovo committed by ethnic Albanians 9. Quoted in Steven Erlanger, “Kosovo Rebels
against Serbs, see Carlotta Gall, “Bus Ambush in Regrouping Nearby in Serbia,” New York Times,
Kosovo Costs NATO Faith of Serbs,” New York March 2, 2000 (online ed.). Lt. Col. James Shufelt,
Times, February 4, 2000 (online ed.); “Kosovo: No who commands the U.S. Army outpost on the
End to Ethnic Violence,” February 2, 2000, border between Kosovo and Serbia in the affected
Stratfor.com; Paul Watson, “Reports Detail Cycle region, reached the same conclusion: “The con-
of Violence in Kosovo,” Los Angeles Times, December cern here isn’t that the Serbian police will come
7, 1999 (online ed.); and “Hatred Flares As Serb across, but that Albanian attacks on Serb police
Homes Are Torched,” Los Angeles Times, August 10, and army will inspire a response great enough to
1999 (online ed.). On the ethnic Albanians’ terror cause public clamor for a KFOR response.”
campaign against Kosovo’s Gypsy population, see Quoted in ibid. See also R. Jeffrey Smith, “Kosovo
Nora Boustany, “Kosovo’s Unrecognized Victims,” Rebels’ Serbian Designs Concern NATO,”
Washington Post, March 3, 2000. Washington Post, February 28, 2000, p. A9.

11
10. Philip Shenon, “U.S. Troops Seize Weapons 24. Peter Finn, “Kosovo Militia Fails to Honor
from Albanians in Kosovo,” New York Times, Vow to Disarm; Group of Ethnic Albanians May
March 16, 2000 (online ed.); and Robert Suro, Press Attacks in Serbia,” Washington Post, March
“GIs Raid Militias in Kosovo,” Washington Post, 28, 2000, p. A16.
March 16, 2000, p. A1.
25. Quoted in Naomi Koppel, “Ground Troops
11. See Stefan Racin, “KFOR Arrest 12 Albanians Urged for Yugoslavia,” Associated Press, March
on Different Charges,” United Press International, 29, 2000.
April 15, 2000.
26. Quoted in “UN Special Rapporteur Calls for
12. “NATO Seizes Arms, Holds Eight Kosovo Crackdown on Kosovo Extremists,” Agence
Albanians,” Reuters, April 26, 2000. France Presse, March 29, 2000.

13. Ibid. 27. See “Dienstbier Criticizing NATO Raids,


Missions in Kosovo Again,” Czech News Agency,
14. Madeleine K. Albright, “Building a Europe March 29, 2000.
Whole and Free,” Remarks at event sponsored by
the Bohemia Foundation, Prague, Czech Republic, 28. Quoted in Allison Mutler, “Kosovo Instability
March 7, 2000, http://secretary.state.gov/www/ Warned,” Associated Press, April 17, 2000.
statements/2000/000307.hrml.
29. Ibid.
15. On the KLA, see Chris Hedges, “Kosovo’s Next
Masters?” Foreign Affairs 78, no. 3 (May–June 30. Quoted in Suro.
1999): 24–42; Chris Hedges, “Victims Not Quite
Innocent,” New York Times, March 28, 1999, sec. 4, 31. Quoted in Rowan Scarborough, “Army Puts
p. 1; Norman Kempster, “A Rebel Force May Down Roots in Kosovo,” Washington Times, March
Prove to Be a Difficult Ally,” Los Angeles Times, 1, 2000, p. A1.
April 1, 1999, p. A23; and Tim Judah, “KLA Is Still
a Force to Be Reckoned With,” Wall Street Journal, 32. Quoted in Justin Brown, “Loose Ends in
April 7, 1999, p. A22. Kosovo Vex the US,” Christian Science Monitor,
November 23, 1999, p. 1.
16. International Crisis Group.
33. Anne Swardson, “Europe Wants Lead in
17. Paul Watson, “Extremist Albanians Target Rebuilding Effort; Aim to Integrate Balkans into
Moderates in Kosovo Strife,” Los Angeles Times, Continent Motivates Funding of Restorations,”
November 20, 1999 (online ed.). Washington Post, June 13, 1999, p. A23.

18. See “Federal Republic of Yugoslavia: Abuses 34. At Rambouillet, Belgrade’s choice of signing
against Serbs and Roma in the New Kosovo,” or being bombed was repeatedly underscored by
Human Rights Watch, August 9, 2000, http://www. administration officials, including President
hrw.org/reports/1999/kosov2. Clinton and Secretary Albright. See Norman
Kempster, “U.S. Presence in Kosovo Would Be
19. Lulzim Cota, “Serbs Ask EU Support for Open-Ended,” Los Angeles Times, February 17,
Refugees Return in Kosovo,” United Press 1999, p. A1; Paul Watson and Tyler Marshall,
International, March 31, 2000; and Claire “U.S. Steps Up Pressure on Milosevic,” Los Angeles
Snegaroff, “Multi-Ethnic Kosovo Still a Distant Times, February 19, 1999, p. A1; and Elizabeth
Dream One Year after War,” Agence France Becker, “No ‘Stonewalling’ on Kosovo Peace,
Presse, March 21, 2000. Milosevic Is Told,” New York Times, February 20,
1999, p. A1.
20. Robert Fisk, “Reduced to Rubble by Seething
Hatred; The Ancient Churches NATO Wouldn’t 35. On the growing insurgency in Kosovo in early
Protect,” Independent (London), November 20, 1998, see Tracy Wilkenson, “Anti-Serb Militancy
1999, p. 17. on the Rise in Kosovo,” Los Angeles Times, January
9, 1998, p. A1; Chris Hedges, “In New Balkan
21. David Rohde, “Kosovo Seething,” Foreign Tinderbox, Ethnic Albanians Rebel against
Affairs 79, no. 3 (May–June 2000): 72–73. Serbs,” New York Times, March 2, 1998, p. A1;
Chris Hedges, “Ravaged Kosovo Village Tells of a
22. Quoted in Peter Finn, “Kosovo Rebel Group Nightmare of Death,” New York Times, March 9,
Issues Peace Pledge,” Washington Post, March 24, 1998, p. A3; Tracy Wilkinson, “Kosovo’s Rebels
2000, p. A20. Are Armed and Ready,” Los Angeles Times, March
25, 1998, p. A1; and Chris Hedges, “Ranks of
23. Quoted in ibid. Albanian Rebels Increase in Kosovo,” New York

12
Times, April 6, 1998, p. A3. 48. See John Goetz and Tom Walker, “Serbian
Ethnic Cleansing Scare Was a Fake, Says General,”
36. Carlotta Gall, “New Floods of Refugees Are on Sunday Times (London), April 2, 2000.
the Move,” New York Times, March 20, 1999, p. A4;
and Carlotta Gall, “Thousands in Kosovo Flee Serb 49. Quoted in ibid.
Drive,” New York Times, March 21, 1998, p. A10.
50. Quoted in John M. Broder, “Crisis in the
37. Ibid. Balkans: The President; Clinton Underestimated
the Serbs, He Acknowledges,” New York Times,
38. Jeffrey Record, The Wrong War: Why We Lost June 29, 1999, p. A6.
Vietnam (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 1998),
p. 86. 51. Apple.

39. “Moral Combat: NATO at War,” BBC2 docu- 52. Ibid.


mentary, aired March 12, 2000.
53. On this point, see Peter Finn, “Kosovo Awaits
40. Ibid. a Final Grisly Accounting,” Washington Post,
January 17, 2000, p. A15; “Stratfor Commentary
41. Albright. B: Kosovo’s Killing Fields: ICTY Reports,”
November 11, 1999, Stratefor.com; and “Where
42. Craig R. Whitney and Eric Schmitt, “NATO Are Kosovo’s Killing Fields?” October 17, 1999,
Had Signs Its Strategy Would Fail in Kosovo,” Stratfor.com.
New York Times, April 1, 1999, p. A1; and Jane
Perlez, “Unpalatable U.S. Options,” New York 54. See Steven Erlanger and Christopher Wren,
Times, 23 March 1999, p. A1. “Early Count Hints at Fewer Kosovo Deaths,”
New York Times, November 11, 1999, p. A6; and
43. Paul Watson, “Airstrikes May Be Triggering Edith Lederer, “War Crimes Investigators
New Massacres,” Los Angeles Times, March 27, Exhume 2,108 Bodies in Kosovo,” Associated
1999, p. A1; Jane Perlez, “White House Tells of Press, November 10, 1999.
Reports of a Forced March in Kosovo,” New York
Times, March 27, 1999, p. A1; and Jane Perlez, 55. See Daniel Pearl and Robert Block, “War in
“U.S. Stealth Fighter Is Down in Yugoslavia As Kosovo Was Cruel, Bitter, Savage; Genocide It
NATO Orders Attack on Serb Army Units: Wasn’t,” Wall Street Journal, December 31, 1999.
‘Ethnic Cleansing,’” New York Times, March 28, This article appears to be the only in-depth inves-
1999, p. A1. tigative report by a major U.S. newspaper on the
Kosovo war’s “body count.” As Pearl and Block
44. U.S. Department of State, “Erasing History: point out, during the bombing campaign, U.S.
Ethnic Cleansing in Kosovo,” www.state.gov/ and NATO officials’ allegations that the Serbs
www/regions.eur/rpt9905ethnicksvotoc.htmls. were engaging in genocide rested on a dubious
Emphasis added. evidentiary foundation. Many of those allega-
tions were unconfirmed reports that were passed
45. Quoted in Robert Skidelsky, “NATO’s Deadly on to NATO by the KLA. Although those reports
Legacy from Kosovo: Western Intervention in lacked independent corroboration, U.S. and
Serbia Caused a Humanitarian Catastrophe and NATO officials treated them as if they were true.
Encouraged Russian Militarism,” Financial Times,
December 14, 1999, p. 23. Emphasis added. 56. Henry Chu and Richard C. Paddock, “Russia
Looks to China as an Ally Amid West’s Ire,” Los
46. Quoted in John-Thor Dahlburg and Paul Angeles Times, December 8, 1999, p. A1; Charles
Richter, “2nd Wave of Allied Firepower Pounds Glover, “Yeltsin and Jiang Attack U.S.
Yugoslavia; Serbs Continue Assaults,” Los Angeles Hegemony,” Financial Times, August 26, 1999
Times, March 26, 1999, p. A1. (online ed.); John Thornhill and James Kynge,
“China and Russia Pull Together,” Financial Times,
47. As a West European diplomat admitted after June 10, 1999 (online ed.); and “In Beijing, The
the first four days of bombing, “We have to con- Signs of a New Strategic Partnership,” March 3,
front the possibility that the air campaign, by 2000, Stratfor.com.
forcing the independent observers and Western
journalists out of Kosovo, has given the Serbs a 57. Tyler Marshall, “Chinese Raise the Arms
sense that they can do whatever they like without Stakes with $500-Million Destroyer,” Los Angeles
anyone being able to prove that they did.” R. W. Times, February 12, 2000; and John Pomfret,
Apple, “Bombs Fall, Goal Unmet?” New York “China Plans for a Stronger Air Force,” Washington
Times, March 28, 1999, p. A1. Post, November 9, 1999, p. A17.

13
58. Joint Russian-Chinese communiqué, quoted York Times, May 12, 1999 (online ed.); and John-
in Richard C. Paddock and Anthony Kuhn, Thor Dahlburg, “Battle for Kosovo Shows Europe
“China Backs Russia on Chechen War,” Los Angeles Still Needs U.S.,” Los Angeles Times, April 20, 1999
Times, December 12, 1999 (online ed.). (online ed.).

59. B. V. A. Röling, “On the Prohibition against the 61. Quoted in Kevin Cullen, “A Call for Limits on
Use of Force,” in Legal Change: Essays in Honor of Julius ‘Hyperpower’ U.S.,” Boston Globe, February 9,
Stone, ed. A. R. Blackshield (Sydney: Butterworth, 1999, p. A4.
1983), p. 283.
62. Lulzim Cota, “Return of Serbs Worries the
60. See Craig R. Whitney, “Hey, Allies, Follow Me. UNHCR in Kosovo,” United Press International,
I’ve Got All the New Toys,” New York Times, May April 26, 2000. See also Andrew Gray, “Kosovo
30, 1999 (online ed.); Roger Cohen, “Dependent Albanians Protest against Serb Return Plans,”
on U.S. Now, Europe Vows Defense Push,” New Reuters, May 10, 2000.

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