SEPTEMBER 2005

Online
Geo file 507

Alan Marriott

Demographic Change and Population

Policy in China and India
China has emerged as a major force in Figure 1: Key vital statistics for China, India and the UK (2004, except percentage
the world economy, and many urban, literacy and GDP per capita)
commentators feel that India is not far
behind. Their economies are certainly China India UK
growing rapidly, although the GDP
per capita data in Figure 1 suggest that Population (billions) 1.299 1.065 0.060
they are still significantly different Birth rate 12.98 22.80 10.88
from developed economies. Both Death rate 6.92 8.38 10.19
countries are also outstanding Infant mortality rate 25.28 57.92 5.22
demographically. They are the only Life expectancy at birth 71.96 63.99 78.27
two billionaire countries, both well Total fertility rate 1.69 2.85 1.66
ahead of the third most populous Median age 31.8 24.4 38.7
country, the USA. Percentage 0-14 years of age 27.3 31.7 18.0
Percentage 15-64 years of age 70.3 63.5 66.3
Population trends in China Percentage 65 and over years of age 7.5 4.8 15.7
Percentage urban 32.1 28.4 89
and India Percentage literate 86 59.5 99
The 2000 Chinese census revealed a GDP per capita (US$) 5,000 2,900 27,700
population of 1.27 billion increasing at
Notes:
1.07% per annum in the preceding Birth rate: number of births per thousand members of the population per year
decade. The growth rate was the lowest Death rate: number of deaths per thousand members of the population per year
recorded in any intercensal period in Infant mortality rate: number of deaths in the first year of life per thousand live births
the post-revolution era. (The highest Life expectancy at birth: in years
was 2.07% per annum between the Total fertility rate: number of children a woman can expect to have
1964 and 1982 censuses.) Median age: age which divides the population into halves
Percentage urban: 2000, national definitions
India’s 2001 census confirmed the Percentage literate: percentage literate over 15 years of age, 2003 (China and India);
unwelcome passing of the one billion percentage who have completed secondary education, 2000 (UK)
GDP per capita: 2003, US dollars, purchasing power parity
milestone (the population count was
1.03 bn) but the census also confirmed
that the population’s rate of increase is Figure 2: Annual population growth in China, 1990–2000
slowing. The growth rate between 1991
and 2001 was 1.9% per annum, less
than for any intercensus decade since
1941-51. Between 1961 and 1981
population growth had exceeded 2.2%
per annum.

There are sharp regional variations.

One Indian state, Kerala, had an
annual growth rate less than 1%. The
highest growth rates are in the north
east, where Nagaland grew at 5.1%, and
other states approach similar levels. In
the demographically conservative
north central Indian heartland, growth
rates are over 2% (Uttar Pradesh 2.3%,
Rajasthan 2.5%, Harayana 2.5%, Bihar
2.5%)
Key
The highest growth rates in China 2.50% and over
were associated with economic growth 2.00 to 2.49%
(e.g. Guangdong, adjacent to Hong 1.50 to 1.99%
Kong, 3.1%; Beijing, 2.4%; and
Shanghai, 2.2%), although remote, 1.00 to 1.49%
sparsely populated provinces with high Up to 0.99%
proportions of ethnic minorities also
showed higher than average growth Although India can look forward to century, overtaking China in the 2030s
rates (e.g. Xinjiang). the dubious distinction of being the or 2040s, the longer term prospects are
most populous country by mid- good. Some official projections,

Geofile Online © Nelson Thornes 2005

September 2005 no.507 Demographic Change and Population Policy in China and India
Figure 3: Annual population growth in India, 1991–2001
perhaps optimistic, anticipate that the
fertility rate will fall to replacement
levels by 2010 and subsequent growth
will be that stored up in the
population’s age profile. Government
policy is to achieve population stability
by 2045, but this is almost certainly
not achievable. UN projections have
India still growing at nearly half a
percent per annum in mid century.
Kerala’ s fertility rate is already below
replacement, and only slightly higher
than the highest European countries.
Other southern states, Tamil Nadu
and Andhra Pradesh, also have low
fertility rates although, to the
confusion of those who look for easy
explanations of demographic patterns,
their social indicators not as good as
Kerala’ s.
China’s future population growth is
expected to be much less than India’s
and is expected to stabilise in the
second quarter of the 21st century. If a
relaxation of the population policy
means that fertility falls less quickly
than has been the case up to the
Geofile Online © Nelson Thornes 2005
The demographic transition in
China and India
Figure 4 shows the progress of China
and India through the stages of the
demographic transition. In the middle
of the 20th century both had high
birth rates, India’s about 40 per
thousand, China’s 35-40, and both had
death rates that were falling from levels
of about 25 and 20 per thousand. These
characteristics are typical of stage 2 of
the demographic transition, the early
expanding stage. As death rates fall, the
rate of natural increase rises. The end
of stage 2 comes when the fall in the
birth rate outstrips the fall in the death
rate so the rate of natural increase itself
falls. This happened in the 1960s in
China, the 1970s in India. Now, China
is moving towards the final stage
where birth and death rates are more
or less in balance.
Figure 5 shows the demographic
pathways followed by China and India,
and for comparison by Hong Kong,
now a special administrative region of
Key
China, and Thailand. Hong Kong was
probably moving between stage 2 and
2.50% and over
stage 3 in 1950, is now in stage 4 and
2.00 to 2.49% will remain there in the next half
1.50 to 1.99% century. Thailand is approaching stage
1.00 to 1.49%
4 and will certainly be at that point by
the mid 21st century. China’s
Up to 0.99% remarkable demographic history is
clearly shown in the big movement in
birth rates and death rates between
1950 and 1975, bigger even than Hong
present, the inherent growth in the Kong and taking it past Thailand in
population associated with a young age the demographic transition. In
structure may mean that population contrast India, which started at a very
growth continues even into the second similar point to China in 1950, will
half of the century. still have a higher growth rate in 2050.
Figure 4: Birth rates and death rates in India and China, 1950–2004
Key
50
China birth rate India birth rate
45 China death rate India death rate
40
35
Rate per thousand
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
 September 2005 no.507 Demographic Change and Population Policy in China and India
Figure 5: Transition pathways
50
40
30
Crude birth rate
Stage 3
20
10
Stage 4
0 10
Some comparisons with the UK
demonstrate that, although China is
much more demographically advanced
than India, it is still not comparable
with a western society. It is true that
the indicators of fertility are similar.
The 2004 birth rate is only 2 per
thousand different, and the total
fertility rate is only 0.03 higher. The
message given by measures of
mortality is mixed. The UK’s crude
death rate is higher than both China’s
and India’s – but this is because the
British population is much older. The
infant mortality rate, the only age
specific death rate given in Figure 1, is
much higher in China than in the UK,
and much higher again in India. There
are also clear differences in life
expectancy.
Age structures contrast strongly. The
three median ages are well spaced out
and the differences in the percentage of
young people and, especially, old
people are marked.
Plotting annual data for China in
Figure 4 also reminds us that the
demographic transition is not an
inevitable linear process. The
devastating impact of the Great Leap
Forward of 1958 on birth rates and
death rates is very clear.
China’s population policy
China’s one-child-per-couple policy is
the most well known of all official
Geofile Online © Nelson Thornes 2005
Growth rate
+3% +2% +1% 0 one linked to natural sciences rather
Stage 2
–1%
Key
China
Hong Kong
Thailand
India
20 30 40 50
Crude death rate
population policies. The western
viewpoint is to acknowledge the
extreme pressures which brought
about its formulation, but to deplore
its lack of respect for human rights.
The extreme coercion has received
attention within China, but during its
emergence the main focus was on the
damage that population growth was
causing to economic modernisation.
There was little interest in population
issues from the Communist takeover
in 1949 through to the early 1970s.
One of the first signs of a new
viewpoint came with the introduction
of the Later, Longer, Fewer policy.
This was a public campaign to
encourage parents to postpone their
first child, allow a longer interval
between births and have fewer
children in total.
The one-child policy emerged in the
years 1978-83. If we look for a single
date, September 1980 when the Fifth
National People’s Congress declared its
views, is the best benchmark. The
underlying background was the
perceived need to promote the four
modernisations, in industry,
agriculture, defence, and science and
technology. Rapid population growth
was seen as a barrier to economic
progress. At this time China started to
compare itself with the developed
world rather than other developing
countries. As part of the reassessment
there had been a significant change in
the Party’s openness to data on
population trends. Population science
became an important discipline, but
than social sciences, a discipline based
on quantification and forecasting
rather than understanding social
relations.
Once the policy was fully accepted it
was strictly enforced. However, it is
almost certainly true that, because of
the decentralisation of provincial
administration, there were differences
from one province to another. This
was partly due to the differing
proportions of ethnic minorities in the
populations (the non-Han people were
generally allowed more than one
child).
In recent years there have been signs of
the policy weakening. Prospective
parents have become adept at strategies
to circumvent the restrictions –
reassigning ethnicity from Han
Chinese to minority and encouraging
multiple births, for example. (Note
that the fertility rate is well over 1, see
Figure 1.) At the same time, since the
mid-1990s, the government has begun
to gradually move away from coercion
to a more health-oriented policy.
China has endorsed and committed
itself to implement international
agreements promoting mother and
child welfare. In 32 pilot counties there
has been a move away from
administrative dictat towards an
integrated, client-oriented approach.
This approach, centring on the needs
of the mother, child and immediate
family rather than the state, is to be
introduced in more than 800
additional counties over the next few
years.
Population policy changes in
India
Indian demographers sometimes claim
that India was the first country in
modern times to have a population
policy. While this claim has to be
regarded with some scepticism – a
number of European countries had
pro-natalist policies in the inter-war
years for instance, an attempt to
recover from the shocking death rates
of the First World War – India may
well have been the first developing
country to establish birth reduction as
a national objective and the first to
recognise that rapid population growth
was a brake on economic development.
India became independent in 1947 and
defined its population policy,
September 2005 no.507 Demographic Change and Population Policy in China and India
essentially one of controlling
population growth, soon after. Over
the years its detailed objectives
changed. In particular there has been a
gradual shift from control (a rather
negative aim) to welfare (much more
positive). In the 1960s, for example,
family ‘health and happiness’ emerged
as the core objective.
The problem with improving family
welfare in the expectation of falling
family size is that the result emerges
slowly. In 1975 India had its period of
coercion, a state of emergency, during
which normal democratic processes
were suspended. The reasons for the
state of emergency were primarily
political with an economic
underpinning, but continued
population growth was held to be one
of the factors which weakened the
economy. This was the justification of
the 1976 policy which embraced
demanding family limitation targets
making sterilisation near compulsory
for those who depended on the state in
any way.
The policy, like the state of emergency
itself, was short-lived but it
significantly set back family planning
in India. Any short-term gain in
reduced fertility was lost in the
subsequent reaction to the controls.
The subsequent emphasis was on
mother and child welfare; family
limitation was not an issue addressed
by national or regional politicians
throughout the 1980s, wary that they
would lose public support.
Nevertheless time has healed that
wound and international thought
moved on, and now India has
approved a national population policy
designed to reflect the best practices
recognised in the international
community. Several state governments
have developed their own state
population policies which are normally
closely consistent with central
government.
Sex ratios
The populations of both India and
China have unusually high
proportions of males, reflecting the
traditionally low status of females.
India’s sex ratio in 2004 was 106 males
per 100 females and China’s 105. These
were higher imbalances than in any of
the other 20 largest countries. Only a
number of much smaller countries,
like Afghanistan, have a larger excess
of males. (Some very small countries
Geofile Online © Nelson Thornes 2005
with large immigration levels, like the in assemblies and councils. Both
oil producers in the Middle East, have countries have official publicity
much higher levels.) Practically all campaigns against son preference.
developed countries and most There are variations between states
developing countries have ratios in the and provinces but generally prenatal
mid or high 90s. The UK’s is 95. sex identification and sex-selective
abortion is illegal in both China and
The underlying preference for male India.
infants remains strong in many
sections of Indian society. There are In China some provinces allow parents
two trends operating in opposition. to have a second child if the first is a
The positive attitudes towards women son. In India there has been an
are strongest among the educated and improvement in monitoring and pro-
the positive changes in the health of daughter advocacy in recent years. But,
women affect all sections of society. at least in the short run, the situation
Female death rates are now similar to may deteriorate before it improves.
those of men except among the very
young. On the other hand there is a References
negative impact relating to the
Dyson, T (2001) ‘The preliminary
availability of affordable techniques for
demography of the 2001 census of
sex determination of foetuses. Female
India’ Population and Development
infanticide is long established in India,
Review 27(2) pp 341-356.
although difficult to quantify. Indian
East-West Centre (2002) The future
demographers have long assumed a sex
population of Asia Honolulu.
ratio at birth of 110, compared with
Greenhalgh, S (2003) ‘Science,
international values of 104-105. The ‘at
modernity and China’s one-child
birth’ element is misleading – the
policy’ Population and Development
difference has arisen from female
Review 29(2) pp 163-196.
infanticide before the birth is recorded.
Lavely, W (2001) ‘First impressions
Now, in addition, selective abortion of
from the 2000 census of China’
foetuses has become more important as
Population and Development Review
antenatal sex determination has
27(4) pp 755-770.
become easier and cheaper using
Marriott, A and Sanchez, J (1998) ‘The
techniques like ultrasound scanning
Integration of Family Planning and
and imaging. In fact there was a very
Development Activities in India’
sharp worsening in the sex ratio
Geography 83(3) pp 237-245.
among children 0-6 years of age from
Sanchez, J and Marriott, A (1999)
106 in 1991 to 108 in 2001.
‘Demographic Change in India’
In China one unwelcome consequence Geofile 348.
of the one-child policy was a Sheridan, M (2005) ‘Fertility-drug
worsening of the sex ratio at birth from twins beat China’s one-child law’
the late 1970s. This must have been Sunday Times 27 February.
achieved initially by infanticide of
females immediately after birth and
before the birth was registered. No
doubt, as in India, selective abortion is
now much more common.
The policy response in the two
countries has not yet been effective in
reducing the differential. Both
countries have legislated to protect the
rights of women and in India there is a
proportion of seats reserved for women
Focus Questions
1. Explain why the UK’s death rate is higher than China’s and
India’s.
2. What is cause and what is effect in the relationship between economic
development and demographic maturity?
3. Is the demographic transition an inevitable progression or a general
trend shaped by policy and circumstance?