The Decision to Migrate: Migratory Aspirations and Perspectives of Colombian University Students1 Alison Mckellar (2006) ABSTRACT International

migration has had, and will continue to have, serious consequences for the economy and the social and cultural structure of both origin and destination countries. By understanding peoples reasons for migrating, better predictions can be made about current and future migration flows, and both origin and destination countries can more effectively plan and adjust for the resulting consequences. This study examines the migratory aspirations of Colombian university students and the factors that contribute to their decision to stay in Colombia or migrate elsewhere. The research was conducted in seven universities in Bogot, Colombia and the analysis is based on survey data from 371 students and follow-up interviews. The study emphasizes a multi-causal approach to migration theory, focusing less on macro-level indicators about Colombia than past research, and instead, emphasizing the dynamic nature of the decision to migrate. An increasingly globalized, and technologically integrated world has caused changes in the way people move within and between countries, outdating much of the current theory on international migration. The lack of relevant literature is especially apparent in the area of the migration of university students and degree-holders, and thus, this study is an attempt to address this deficiency by examining the economic, cultural, political, and value-related factors associated with highly-educated, prospective migrants and non-migrants. INTRODUCTION Few studies exist that focus directly on Colombian emigration, but available data suggest that approximately 70% of Colombian emigrants have at least some university education (Gaviria 2004:13). Although research is inconclusive as to the long term consequences of skilled labor emigration, both economists and sociologists agree that the phenomenon has both long and short term effects that can be very serious (Kugler 2005, Lowell and Findlay 2001). Colombia is no exception, and Alejandro Gavirias (2004) study of Colombian migration to the United States reports that Colombia may have lost 2% of its university educated population, and up to 4% of its population with Masters or Doctorate level degrees (p. 14). While recognizing the importance of migration flows for both destination countries and countries of origin, this paper does not address the effects of migration, but rather the process by which university students decide whether to pursue a professional life in Colombia or to prepare to migrate abroad. The focus of the paper is thus on potential migrants, and the factors that influence the development of their migratory projects,2 emphasizing the

This summary is based on the thesis paper The Decision to Migrate: Migratory Aspirations and Perspectives of Colombian University Students. The complete work is available from Stetson University, DeLand, FL. 2 E. Reyneri (2001) explains migratory projects as a conceptual categories used to represent the different meanings people give to their action of emigrating. This is of interest if one wants to grasp immigrants motivation to their actions, in order to better understand their behaviours, expectations and inclinations. These types are analytical, so that more than one project could co-exist in the same person, thus exerting a contradictory influence on his/her motivations (p. 18).

roles played by major macro-level social, economic, and political factors affecting Colombia, as well as the subjective meanings that migration has for different students and groups of students. This study focuses on Colombian students, enrolled full-time at public and private universities in the capital city of Bogot, and the factors that influence their aspirations, perceptions, and decisions to stay in Colombia upon graduation, or to migrate abroad to live, work, or continue studying. Indicators such as violence and economic instability often serve as good explanations for why people are compelled to migrate, yet fail to explain how and why different individuals and groups, when placed under nearly identical macro-level conditions, react differently and make different decisions about migration. This study is an effort to add to migration research by incorporating social capital theory, network theory, and cultural factors to the discussion of the question: Why do university-educated Colombians desire to leave or remain in Colombia? REVIEW OF RELEVANT MIGRATION THEORY AND LITERATURE In the past, most migration research has focused on analysis of the causes and effects of international migration in countries of origin and destination, and has been limited almost exclusively to post-migration studies and analysis (Davenport 2005; Todaro 1969). Often, researchers have focused on the migration of unskilled labor from developing to developed countries. However, more recently, researchers have begun to emphasize educated and professional migrants and the unique case they represent (Ferro 2006; Gaviria 2004; Portes 1998). Carling (2002:13) proposes that the aspiration to migrate can be analyzed on two levels. On the macro-level, we are interested in why a large number of people wish to leave their country, be it permanently or temporarily. This discussion must include, not only factors such as economic and political instability, but also the more subtle influences of migratory networks, and the migration culture (Massey et al. 1998). The micro-level analysis focuses on the question of who wants to stay and who wants to leave. This can be affected by a wide range of variables such as social support systems, profession, socio-economic status, and others. There is a tendency to conceptualize skilled migrants in terms of their capacity to move beyond the limits of economic capital, and economists and sociologists alike often propose that globalization and modernity have given human capital, talent, and education, the capacity to break down the barriers of mobility previously determined by socio-economic status (Borjas 1989). Massey et al. (1998) however, in their summary of international migration theory and studies, conclude that we still have little or no direct evidence on the financial resources possessed and or transported by emigrants when they leave to work abroad" (p. 263). Much of what we know

about international migration is based on assumptions and outdated theory that may not adequately reflect, explain, or predict the behavior and attitudes of people in the 21st century. Social capital theory: Bourdieu and Wacquaint (1992:92) first identified social capital as the sum of social and physical resources available to an individual due to formal and informal networks and relationships with people, institutions, and other groups. Researchers who apply social capital theory to international migration emphasize that social ties facilitate migration, not by influencing the attitudes of potential migrants, but by reducing the risks of migration and increasing access to financial capital (Durand 1994; Massey et al. 1987; Massey and Goldring 1988). Thus, potential migrants who have strong ties to past migrants are expected to be more likely to migrate than those who do have few or weak connections to past migrants. Palloni et al. (2001) use data from the Mexican Migration Project from 39 Mexican communities to test the network effect of past family migration on the probability of out-migration by examining the migratory behavior of sibling pairs. They conclude that "having an older sibling who has been to the United States triples the likelihood of migrating to the United States and that this differential in the odds of movement persists when controls for human capital, common conditions, and unobserved heterogeneity are introduced" (p. 1295). These controls are necessary in order to assure that the behavior is not due to other shared attributes such as education and social status that generally present similar pathways and barriers to migration. Although the measurements of income and occupation were vague, the study offers strong support for the role of social capital as a predictor of migration. However, it is unclear if these findings are the result of the particularities of Mexican migration to the United States, or if they can be extended to cases of highly skilled migration where the destination and origin countries do not share a border. Social capital theory emphasizes the way network ties facilitate the ability to migrate, making little reference to the way migratory aspirations and desires are affected by networks. There is also limited mention in the literature of the possibility of migrants leaving their homeland, not because of the social capital already available to them through a network, but rather as a strategic means of acquiring social capital. For example, Reichart (1982) found that, for some, migration may be a right of passage into adult life. Some researchers explain such behavior in terms of the "culture of migration" that evolves over a long period of sustained movement of people, changing the perceptions and values surrounding migration (Massey et al. 1998:42). Barak Kalir's (2005) study of the migration of non-Jewish Ecuadorians to Israel questions the explanatory power of migratory networks and emphasizes that abrupt and hasty decisions to migrate are often made with very little

information or kinship ties to the destination. He points to a migratory "disposition" which is characterized not simply by calculated rationality, but also by "bodily feelings, emotions, and desires" (p. 188). One possible cause of a new and growing awareness of the option of migrating, and a socialized wiliness toward it, is the constant interaction with, and evidence of, migration-associated wealth. Kalir (2005) found that these new cultural elements with which potential migrants are confronted can generate jealousy, "agitation, frustration, and even rage" (p. 188), partially explaining the seemingly impulsive migratory decisions of Ecuadorians. New migration theories: Traditionally, most international migration studies have focused on migration research through data collected in the post-migration period (Palloni et al. 2001; Gaviria 2004; Schmeidl 1997; Davenport 2003; Banco de la Repblica 2005; Kalir 2005). This methodological tendency not only leaves out the decision-making process and perspectives of those that choose not to migrate (or are unable to do so), but also fails to capture the uncertain, evolving, and reflexive process of the decision to stay or leave. Two notable exceptions (Carling 2002; Ferro 2006) have focused explicitly on the pre-migration period, emphasizing new facets of the interconnectivity of aspiration, desire, mobility, and immobility, and broadening the concepts of personal motivation, emotion, and self-identity (Corcoran 2002; Kalir 2005) in migration theory. Aspiration and ability: The aspiration/ability model proposed by J. Carling (2002) challenges the view that we are living in an increasingly mobile world, and emphasizes that poverty, migration control policies, geography, and other risks that impede mobility are not accounted for in mainstream migration theory, and that aspiration and ability to migrate must be considered separately (p. 9). Neoclassical economic theories about wage differentials between countries offer strong explanations of large scale migration and desire to migrate, however Carling (2002:8) challenges with the question, "how do we account for the migration of some and the non-migration of others in a single framework". He suggests that the concept of involuntary immobility may be just as significant. By measuring aspiration and ability to migrate separately, he found that Cape Verdeans often desire to migrate but are unable to do so. This model represents a departure from the dichotomy often drawn in migration literature between voluntary and forced migration, pointing out that even in refugee movements where thousands are "forced" to leave, those left behind may still be involuntarily immobile due to political or economic barriers.

The possibility of a satisfied immobility among the highly skilled: Building on Carling's (2002) concepts of aspiration and ability, Anna Ferro's (2006) research of the migratory projects of knowledge workers in Romania, used in-depth, qualitative interviews of 27 return migrants and potential migrants. All of the interviewees had either already migrated or said they had been considering migration, although not all necessarily expressed a desire to do so (p. 181). She identified four main categories that incorporated both aspiration and ability3, and added the possibility a new the existence of satisfied immobility among highly skilled workers who sometimes determined, after careful consideration, that it was in their best interest not to migrate. However, true cases of involuntary immobility, like those in Carling's (2001) study, were not found. Having reviewed the literature, I believe the study I have conducted is unique, both in methodology and subject matter. It focuses on undergraduate students, residing in Bogot, Colombia, from varying socio-economic and academic backgrounds, and the way in which migration or non-migration factors into their post-graduation plans. It combines extensive quantitative, as well as qualitative analysis and incorporates an analysis of economic security, political stability, physical safety, mobility, immobility, aspirations, and self-actualization. While traditional migration theory offers many important insights and explanations, especially for understanding and thinking about past migration from Colombia, there are many aspects of modern international migration that are not adequately accounted for, nor even addressed, in most mainstream migration literature. My research borrows heavily from the concepts put for by Ferro (2006) and Carling (2001), echoing their call for micro-level analyses of the pre-migratory period, and also adding new concepts that I believe can guide and inform subsequent research. RESEARCH DESIGN A survey was administered to 371 university students, enrolled in three public and four private universities in Bogot, Colombia. The private universities; La Universidad de los Andes, La Universidad Javeriana, La Universidad del Bosque, and La Universidad del Rosario, were chosen based on their size, reputation, students socioeconomic profiles, and religious and non-religious affiliations. The public universities; La Universidad Distrital, La Universidad Nacional, and La Universidad Pedaggica, were chosen because they are the three most prominent and best know public universities in

Questions of space prevent an in depth discussion of the four categories. Briefly, migrants with a committed migration aspiration expressed a strong desire to leave Romania and had taken clear steps toward meeting this goal (p. 184); a disheartened aspiration and aborted mobility was associated with migrants whose ideal situation of migrating was deemed impossible or those migrants who were forced to return home early (p. 185); those migrants who wished for short-term experiences abroad were categorized as having an unexpected and desired aspiration (p.186); and those migrants with committed plans to return to Romania or those that decided not to leave at all were characterized as expressing a satisfied immobility (p. 188).

the city. Because different professions face different employment opportunities upon graduation, and different academic foci among students is likely to signify different attitudes and perspectives about migration and non-migration, students were surveyed in a wide range of academic departments, including Health Sciences, Engineering, Economics, Art/Music/Humanities, Social Sciences, Natural Sciences, Education Sciences, and Business Administration. The eight page survey was composed of fifty-nine questions, including one open-ended free response question that called for a more extended explanation of the students migratory plans and aspirations upon graduating from college, and the general reasons for remaining in Colombia or migrating elsewhere. Consistent with other Carlings (2001) study, I also found that the expectation of return was a central part of most migratory aspirations. Many respondents used this space to reiterate that their migration desire was only temporary, that they fully intended to return to Colombia, and that their migration experience would help them to do this. This was often coupled with recognition of the problems that exist in Colombia, as well as a hopeful analysis of the possibility for change. Rachel, an engineering student in her ninth semester expresses a common sentiment of opportunity existing amongst adversity in Colombia:
I would be interested in studying or working in another country, but only temporarily, and returning to my country, not only because of a strong social responsibility that I feel, but also because I believe that in a place with certain problems, there can exist many possibilities and opportunities.

Her use of my country, rather than simply saying Colombia clearly indicates a strong identity as a Colombian. The role of subjective meaning and personal attitudes in the formation of migratory desires is made very apparent by the contrast in language and outlook used between respondents who share seemingly similar profiles. Diana, another engineering student in her ninth semester, has this to say:
I would like to live and work in England or Japan. The reasons why I want to leave Colombia are the lack of job opportunities, the social inequality, the violence, which is a direct result of the current conditions, and the complete inexistence of politicians who are improving the situation, but instead make the future of Colombia look very grim.

Both respondents are female engineering students in their ninth semester of education at the same public university in Bogota, Colombia, both selected stratum 2 as the socio-economic category corresponding to their place of residence, and both have family members currently living in North America. FINDINGS Consistent with the Carling (2001) study of migration from Cape Verde, this study includes a micro and macrolevel analysis of migratory aspirations. At the macro-level, we are interested in the factors that cause large numbers of Colombians to desire to leave the country, whether that desire be temporary or permanent. However, a strictly macro-level

analysis is incapable of explaining the reasons for which some Colombians migrate, while others do not. The micro-level analysis examines individuals and attempts to identify the characteristics of those individuals that explain their different attitudes and behavior. Table 1. shows survey data of respondents perceptions of economic threat, violence, and the armed conflict. In all cases, worried students outnumbered unworried or less worried students. Further, what is perhaps more significant, is that respondents indicated they were more worried about both their own future economic stability and the future economic stability of their families than they were about the present situation. With respect to the armed conflict, 59.4% felt their life was being negatively affected currently, while 68.3% predicted that their life was likely to be negatively affected in the future.
Yes, very much so/ Yes, somewhat 63.6% 76.8% 64.2% 70.6% 44.0% 59.4% 68.3% Very little/ Not at all 36.5% 23.1% 35.7% 29.5% 56.0% 41.6% 31.7%

I am worried about my current economic security. I am worried about my future economic security. I am worried about my familys current economic security. I am worried about my familys future economic security. I am worried about my personal safety in Colombia. I believe my quality of life is being negatively affected by the armed conflict in Colombia. My quality of life is likely to be negatively affected in the future by the armed conflict in Colombia.

High rates of unemployment and high levels of political violence are macro-level indicators that help explain the emigration environment, defined by Carling (2002:13) as the social, economic and political context which is largely common to all members of the community. Yet these figures provide only a backdrop and a vague point of reference from which to begin an analysis of migratory desires and plans. Desire to migrate: Desire to migrate was divided into desire to migrate temporarily and desire to migrate permanently. The expectation of returning was an important factor in the formation of migratory aspirations and projects for most students and the vast majority indicated that a temporary migratory experience was considered desirable.
Probably yes/ Definitely yes I would like to leave and live in another country and return eventually to live and work in Colombia. I would like to migrate to another country and remain there for the rest of my life. 91.9% 27.5% Probably no/ Definitely no 8.1% 72.5%

However, when asked about permanent migration, responses changed drastically. This points to the variation in meaning that migration has for different students, and the complexity of measuring migratory aspirations and behavior. There are a number of studies that focus on rates of return to country of origin, and these researchers often stress the tendency of the

desire for temporary migration experiences abroad to become permanent as migrants establish themselves in their destination country and acquire social and work related networks (Finn 2003). The phenomenon is well known in Colombia and newspapers and magazines often refer to the, Colombians who say theyll return but never do (El Tiempo 2003). Studies that focus only on actual migration as it can be measured demographically miss the complexities in the aspirations beneath the behavior. Although in many cases, both temporary and permanent aspirations will manifest themselves in identical ways in terms of demographic realities, there is a real and important difference between an individual who desires to leave his country permanently and one who desires to leave and expects to return. Even if these aspirations often prove to be identical in their consequences, there are sharp contrasts between the motivations, attitudes, and individual characteristics that determine them. Table 2. Permanent Desire to Migrate
Coefficientsa Standardized Coefficients Model 1 Variables (Constant) ECONSTAB estratos 1 and 2 combined I have the necessary resources to migrate if I chose to do so I am worried about my personal safety in Colombia I feel a committment, as a Colombian, to stay in this country and contribute to its development I believe I could obtain a higher quality/level of life, with my professional abilities, by migrating to another country. armcon Beta .013 -.073 .203 Sig. .004 .805 .156 .000

.109

.029

-.319

.000

.321

.000

.039

.446

a. Dependent Variable: I would like to migrate to another country and stay there for the rest of my life
Model Summary Adjusted R Square .339 Std. Error of the Estimate .681

Model 1

.593

R Square .352

Multiple regression analysis indicates that the most important determinants of a desire to migrate permanently were feelings of social responsibility as a Colombian to contribute to the development of the country, the belief that one could attain a higher quality of life by migrating to another country, perception of having the necessary resources to migrate, and a concern for personal safety. Neither social stratum, negative effects of the armed conflict, economic instability, nor family and friendship ties to past and present migrants proved to be statistically significant when controlled for other variables. These findings lend considerable support to the argument that desire to migrate is not a simple expression of any objective reality in Colombia, but rather the subjective meanings and attitudes that individuals derive from their own experiences and specific contexts. The strongest predictor of desire to migrate permanently, when controlled for other

variables, was the belief that one could obtain a higher standard of living, with his/her professional abilities, by migrating to another country. Not all students agreed that their quality of life could be improved by migrating. Even those who felt they had a low probability of finding a well-paying job in Colombia, and worried about their personal safety or economic security, did not always feel that migrating elsewhere would improve their situation. Further, social stratum was not highly correlated with the belief that migration could lead to higher standards of living. One would expect poor, highly educated students to be acutely aware of their human capital value in the global market, but poor students were no more likely than wealthy students to think migration would lead to higher standards of living. For example, Jeremy expresses a common sentiment among many university students:
I have no interest in leaving Colombia, and especially not to work in Europe or the United States. Here, I am valued for who I am and for my education. In other countries, I would be a second-class citizen who just provides a service because there are not good opportunities for latinos.

Students studying in public universities were significantly more likely to mention that they felt latino immigrants were discriminated against in other countries. Jeremy's response defies most theory of highly educated migration which views education as the great equalizer, removing barriers to the free flow of human capital. Even though Carling (2002) makes a significant and important contribution to migration theory with the aspiration/ability model, he too insists on the skilled/unskilled framework of global mobility. He refers to "the hierarchies of globalisation in which unskilled young people of Cape Verde find themselves in the lower strata. They are a far cry from the skilled migrant executives who travel the world as if it were borderless" (p. 38). Jeremy is highly educated, and the very fact that he is studying in a public university in Colombia indicates that he is also among the brightest and highest-scoring students in the country. However, his non-aspiration, or rather his complete rejection of the migration option, is in fact a result of his investments in human capital. Not only is he convinced his education will not be valued in Europe or the United States, he is certain that he would be overtly discriminated against because he is Colombian. Patrick is also studying education sciences in the same university as Jeremy, yet his attitudes and perceptions, or at least the areas he chooses to focus on, are very different. He writes:
One of my main reasons for wanting to leave Colombia is because, in my opinion, the President has sold out. He is not doing anything to reduce the levels of poverty and unemployment and the only people that will benefit from the new reforms are the wealthy people because he's given in completely to the multinational and oil companies, and now the free trade agreement is going to include fruits and vegetables. In this country, educators are not respected and have very low status. There are other countries where education is given the status it deserves and the profession is much better paid.

The contrasting desires and motivations of Jeremy and Patrick illustrate the way subjective experience and attitudes can exist independently of more tangible characteristics such as socioeconomic stratum and political or economic instability.

Both students live in the same overall "emigration environment" of Bogot, Colombia. They even study the same subject area, in the same university, and agree that Colombia is characterized by unacceptable levels of unemployment and political instability. However, for Jeremy, migration would mean losing his investment in human capital and the guarantee of fewer opportunities and discrimination. It is by remaining in Colombia that he can best meet his needs to contribute, participate, and belong. For Patrick on the other hand, his education is of no use in Colombia because those that have political and economic power in the country, value neither education nor educators. Patrick, like Jeremy, is motivated by a need for self-actualization, but he reaches the opposite conclusion, and his vague reference to "other countries" illustrates that the actual destination country is of secondary importance. He will go to any country that values his investment in human capital, and his role as an educator. Social responsibility and the desire to migrate: For Colombian university students, migratory aspirations and attitudes were often distinctly ethical or moral in nature. Just as important as the belief that a higher standard of living could be attained by migrating, was a feeling of personal commitment and sense of responsibility as a Colombian. Those who expressed overt non-aspirations frequently mentioned a personal and social responsibility to contribute something to the social, economic, and political development of Colombia. Further, this sentiment was often accompanied by harsh judgments of those who do choose to leave. Statements such as "I feel obligated to give back something to the country that has given me all the opportunities I have" or "leaving your country in difficult times is like running out of a burning building and expecting that those left inside will put it out" point to something very different from the concept of non-aspiration or satisfied immobility discussed by Ferro (2006). They do not reflect immobility but rather a rejection of mobility as a value. This concept of rejected mobility is likely a product of Colombia's particular migration culture that is moving into its second generation of emigrants. Without a history of high levels of emigration, there is arguably little possibility of a rejected mobility existing with the particular vigor it does among these Colombian university students. In order for one to be voluntarily immobile within a context characterized not only by strong migratory desires, but also high levels of involuntary immobility, he must arguably have had the opportunity to reflect on the migratory decisions of others and consider a wide range of opinions and perspectives concerning the implications of migration on Colombia. The reflexive nature of past and present migration flows, migratory decision-making, and scholarly analyses is made apparent by Magda, who writes:
We're really going to be in trouble here in Colombia if everyone who succeeds in getting an education leaves. Colombia stands a good chance of suffering from the brain drain like other Latin American countries.

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University students are perhaps the most likely of all potential migrants to engage in this type of reflexive analysis, due to the inherently academic and critical environment of a university. Because social responsibility as a Colombian is strongly connected to the idea of patriotism and national identity, individuals who desire to migrate permanently have often rejected either the idea of personal responsibility as a Colombian to participate constructively in Colombia, or they have rejected the assumption that the country can or will change for the better. In Ana's words:
Colombia has many good people, many resources, and many possibilities, but unfortunately, paramilitaries, guerrilla, corrupt politicians, and narco-traffickers have had, and will continue to have more money, more power, and stronger weapons.

Social responsibility and the temporary migration desire:

The importance of distinguishing between temporary and permanent migration desires is further highlighted by the way social responsibility works as a determinant of the desire to migrate when combined with an expectation of return. Under these conditions, social responsibility as a Colombian is actually positively correlated with a desire to migrate temporarily. Because virtually everyone expressed some desire to migrate temporarily, it was difficult to determine distinguishing characteristics within the survey data. However, responses from interviews and the open-ended survey question indicate three main themes in the motivation for temporary migration experiences. One engineering student at La Universidad de los Andes writes:
My plan would be to leave Colombia for a short time, perhaps to get my masters or gain some work experience, but then return to establish my life in Colombia. My motives would be to become familiar with other cultures and places, visit some tourist areas, and acquire new experiences to grow at a personal level.

Another student from the Universidad Pedagogica explains that although I plan to live my life in Colombia, I think it is very important to receive some education abroad, maybe the United States or Canada. The theme of broadening horizons and growing personally through short migration experiences was not specifically addressed in the survey, but was mentioned with considerable frequency by students, both in the open-ended survey question response and in interviews. The second theme, while connected, has a distinct element of temporary migration experiences as a means of acquiring experiences and knowledge that can be applied in Colombia to improve the overall social, political, and economic situation. One student writes:
My ideal situation would be to live and work for a short time either in Venezuela or Cuba because in these countries, special education is given the attention it deserves, and return to Colombia to contribute its development and progress. I would also like to live for a little while in Africa working with education programs. It would take major extenuating circumstances for me to remain indefinitely outside of my country.

Once again, this Colombian identity is coupled with an unmistakable sense of social responsibility. In many cases, the sentiment is even characterized by distinct language, such as reference to Colombia as my country. This student is also not

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alone in defying common perceptions of migration from developing countries always being directed toward developed countries like Europe and the United States. All three destinations mentioned by this student are developing nations, the only criterion for selection being the intrinsic educational value they offer. Finally, respondents often mentioned that their temporary migration experiences were motivated by a desire to increase their human capital. By spending a short time abroad, working for an international company, they would be better positioned in the Colombian labor market upon return. A common theme in the survey free response question, and informal interviews was the need to learn English. Students were convinced that getting a well-paying job absolutely depended on their ability to speak English. Mariana, a medical student in her final semester at La Universidad Nacional explained that,
these days, more and more, you have to speak English. Theyve started this program called Bilingual Bogota and supposedly everyone that goes through the school system has to be able to speak English at a basic level by the year 2010. I just cant speak it though Im not good in English class and Im too scared to try and speak. My only hope is to go to the United States for a while and force myself and then come back here and try to find a job.

Mariana expresses a concern shared by many of the citys students that represents a new type of migration desire that is a direct result of government policies and initiatives.4 Public secondary schools and universities often do not offer high quality English instruction, or do not emphasize its importance as much as the private universities. Many families, those who can afford the cost, enroll their children in bilingual schools, where most of the classes are taught in English. Many of the private universities in Bogota require that the students take English, and often change their academic calendar to match that of the United States or Europe in order to facilitate exchange programs. Mariana tells me that only 1% of applicants are accepted into the Medical program at La Universidad Nacional, and that it is by far the most highly selective application process of any Colombian university because admission is based solely on academic ability and standardized tests. However, the fact that Mariana does not speak English may be the deciding factor in whether or not she is offered a job in Colombia. Resources and desire to migrate: Almost paradoxically, the desire to migrate permanently was found to be positively correlated to a perception of having the sufficient resources to do so. As discussed previously, traditional, neoclassical, migration theory tends to explain migration in terms of wage differences between developed and developing nations. This premise assumes that each potential migrant is rational actor who actively weighs the costs and benefits of migration and chooses the option that delivers the highest return on investments after taking into account the sacrifices and cost of the migration process. It also

The Project Bogota y Cundinamarca Bilinges en Diez Anos is an initiative seeks to make Bogota and the surrounding region more competitive at a global level by developing high levels of English fluency in both the private and public sectors of the city through educational and administrative initiatives.

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assumes that each migrant is fully informed on all potential costs and gains of migration, and, as Carling (2002) explains, the model does not include the possibility of involuntary immobility. Initially, I was surprised that few students referred to involuntary immobility in the section of the survey where they were asked to elaborate, in their own words, on their migratory aspirations and plans. I expected that my findings would reflect what Carling (2001) had found about the young, involuntarily immobile in Cape Verde. There were numerous cases of students who said they had a strong desire to migrate at some point in the future whose socio-economic profiles made them unlikely candidates for a visa. However, the improbability of them realizing their migratory aspirations was my judgment, not theirs. Manuel, a soon to be graduate of La Universidad Javeriana, had this to say:
I have the firm intention of migrating; maybe just for a short time, or maybe for my whole life, I don't know, but I need to get out of Colombia and experience something new. I know its difficult, but I believe that when someone really wants something and puts everything into achieving it, it is possible to do anything.

Manuel hoped to migrate to France or the United States and mentioned that the French Embassy has many opportunities for Colombians, but he knew little about the process he would have to follow in order to obtain a visa. The ability of obtain a tourist visa is often an important pathway to migration and an important predictor of actual migration (Carling 2002; Massey 1998). Colombians with many contacts to past and present migrants know that just getting a tourist visa, though, is almost impossible for the unmarried and unemployed unless they can prove strong ties to Colombia that guarantee their return. Immigration officials require bank statements and letters from employers that indicate "socio-professional status" as it is commonly referred to in the United States. Much attention has been given to the social network in the destination country as a facilitator of migration (Palloni et al. 2001; Massey 1999), but for Colombians in the pre-migratory phase, it is often the social network in Colombia that makes the difference. A friend of the family may write a letter, a bank prints off a statement that indicates a higher balance, etc. Manuel had not yet begun the active process of preparing for migration. It is possible that rather than his desire to migrate being influenced by the fact that he believes he has the necessary resources to do so, as the model suggests, his strong desire to migrate may in fact be a determining factor in his belief that will be able to do so. Another explanation is that those who have the resources to migrate, and those who do not, truly exist in two very different migration environments. Although it was perceived resources and not social stratum that proved statistically significant in this model, it is still not possible to conclude that migratory projects are not influenced by socio-economic strata. The socioeconomic stratum corresponding to a respondent's place of residence was highly correlated with the perception of having the necessary resources to migrate. Further, no stronger association between two variables was found

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than that between socioeconomic stratum and enrollment in a public or private university. Private education is expensive and unrealistic for most poor students except for a very few who obtain scholarships. The public/private university distinction was virtually never mentioned by students studying at private universities, but public university students frequently referred to the "nature" of public education. One student even wrote, "I want to stay in Colombia and contribute because that is the spirit of public education, and that is a value they instill in us here." There is not strong empirical evidence to conclude that the public/private distinction is an independent determiner of the desire to migrate. It is however highly correlated with social stratum, which is undoubtedly a significant predictor of whether one perceives having the necessary resources to migrate. Neoclassical models of migration that base their explanations in the rationality of economic supply and demand curves assume that each "rational actor" conducts the same cost-benefit analysis with identical information available to each potential migrant. As mentioned earlier, Gaviria (2004) found that the migrants who stood to gain the most by migration to the United States, in economic terms, were those with the lowest socio-economic status in Colombia, who are generally the unskilled workers. If the neoclassical argument holds true, those that most desire to migrate should be those that would most benefit from migration. The finding that Colombian students are more likely to desire to migrate permanently if they believe they have the resources to do so contradicts the neoclassical classical argument. What is more likely, in some cases, is that a belief that migration is possible is almost a prerequisite for considering it seriously and desiring to leave the country. In the words of Angela, an Education Sciences student at La Universidad Pedaggica:
Honestly, I have never really thought about leaving Colombia. I've heard of people leaving to work or study in other countries, and the idea is quite interesting to me. I would like to see Australia or maybe Cuba.

Many students reacted this way to the survey. They sometimes answered the final question as though it were a game. Angela's response did not reflect a true desire that she had considered and developed. She was simply reacting to a question that asked her to reflect on something that clearly did not occupy a considerable her consciousness. The question, in a way, invited her to pause for a moment and dream in purely hypothetical terms. Angela definitely has neither the social network nor the material resources to allow her to migrate but she is not involuntarily immobile because there is no conscious desire to migrate. How then can we categorize this highly educated Colombian who lives in an area characterized by not only by high levels of actual migration but also the desire to migrate? Ferro (2006) refers to the satisfied immobility of Romanian knowledge workers who actively consider migration but decide that the costs outweigh the gains. Angela's non-aspiration is clearly different from the non-aspiration of an informed student who actively rejects the idea of migration. She may very well be immobile but this is not problematic for Angela because migration doesn't even enter into the conscious range of

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possibilities in her life trajectory. One explanation to account for these very different attitudes is that the migration environment or migration culture varies greatly even among Colombian university students. Although university students seem to belong to a cohesive category of potential migrates, they are no easier to classify into rigid groups as forced/voluntary or skilled/unskilled migrants, suggesting the need for an even broader concept of migration environment. Willingness to migrate: On the surface, being willing to migrate may seem the same as desiring to migrate, but Angela's case reveals the possibility of a person without an expressed and developed desire to migrate, may still be willing to migrate under certain conditions. Carling (2002) concludes his discussion of the aspiration/ability model by mentioning that aspiration may not always precede ability in cases where a person is suddenly offered an opportunity migrate such as an unexpected job offer or family friend pulling strings in the embassy and granting a tourist visa. The person who had not necessarily desired to migrate may still do so because "in a place like Cape Verde, where ability to migrate is so scarce and desirable, such a person is likely to feel that they ought to seize the opportunity to emigrate" (p. 37). Also, by simply asking some if he/she desires to migrate, we fail to capture the broad range of conditions that many migrants place on their imagined migration experiences. Someone who wishes to migrate may have a very strong desire, yet this desire might be one that will be satisfied only within a narrow range of possibilities. An aspiring migrant may strongly desire to live and work the rest of his life in Germany as a high-paid corporate executive at a software company, and no other situation will suffice. Conversely, others who wish to migrate may feel their desire would be satisfied under a wide range of circumstances. Willingness to migrate was determined from the construction of an index of scored responses to seven questions representing distinct hypothetical migration experiences. Table 3. Willingness to Migrate
Coefficientsa Standardized Coefficients Beta .145 -.086 .056

Model 1

(Constant) ECONSTAB estratos 1 and 2 combined I have the necessary resources to migrate if I chose to do so I am worried about my personal safety in Colombia I feel a committment, as a Colombian, to stay in this country and contribute to its development I believe I could obtain a higher quality/level of life, with my professional abilities, by migrating to another country. armcon Famnet friennet Semesters of university education completed

Sig. .000 .010 .135 .333

-.051

.332

-.188

.000

.373

.000

.087 -.015 .082 .130

.103 .762 .108 .009

a. Dependent Variable: willing7

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Model Summary Adjusted R Square .292 Std. Error of the Estimate 3.42643

Model 1

.559

R Square .312

Statistically significant predictors of willingness to migrate differed in important ways from those that influenced a students desire to migrate. As expected, the belief that a higher standard of living could be reached by migrating to another country was again the most important factor. However, a feeling of social responsibility as a Colombian, although again negatively correlated to willingness, played less of a role than it had in the formation of an overt desire to migrate. The most pronounced indication of the inherent difference between a person who is willing to migrate and one who desires to migrate was that a perception of having the necessary resources to migrate lost its predictive power. These finding lend support to the idea that those who do not see migration as a viable possibility are less likely to develop conscious aspirations of leaving the country. Although by no means discrediting the Carling's (2002) aspiration/ability model, the inclusion of willingness to migrate does add an additional dimension, which I believe is useful to understanding of the complex web of aspiration, ability, migration and non-migration. The inclusion of willingness is also useful because it avoids drawing a false dichotomy between those who desire to migrate and those who do not. In Giddens' (1999) world characterized by globalization, high-modernity and the consequences that come with new choices and abstract systems, the decision to migrate is highly contextual, and involves multiple levels of analysis. Jason, an Engineering student at Los Andes, is an illustrative example of the way migration is perceived and evaluated differently by different students. He writes: "I would go if I were guaranteed a secure, definite, well-paying job but that's the only way, not just to test my luck." Jason clearly indicates his own location on the willingness scale, which he too views as a continuum of varying degrees of willingness, in which he distinguishes himself from other, more willing migrants who would migrate under nearly any circumstance. While the belief that a higher standard of living could be attained by migration accounting for the largest amount of variance in a respondent's willingness to migrate, other factors that had not been significant predictors of the desire to migrate did appear to influence willingness. The degree to which respondents were concerned about their current and future economic situation, as well as that of their families was found to be associated with increased willingness to migrate, as was the number of semesters of education completed. Thus, students who perceived higher levels of economic threat, and were closer to graduating, although no more likely to express a concrete migratory aspiration, were in fact more willing to migrate under a wider range of circumstances than other students.

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Actions taken toward migration: As discussed earlier, most migration involves planning, preparation, and concrete steps taken to achieve the goal of migrating, and migratory projects are characterized by varying degrees of intention and commitment (Ferro 2006). In this study I assigned each respondent a score based on the number of completed action steps such as having conducted job searches abroad, filed for the appropriate documents, selected a destination country, or determined a departure date. A true neoclassical model would predict steps taken toward migration to be influenced by the same factors found to determine desire to migrate, but it was difficult to find logical patterns that explained variance in action steps taken. Table 4. Actions taken toward migration
Coefficientsa Standardized Coefficients Beta .103 -.047 .229

Model 1

(Constant) ECONSTAB estratos 1 and 2 combined I have the necessary resources to migrate if I chose to do so I am worried about my personal safety in Colombia I feel a committment, as a Colombian, to stay in this country and contribute to its development I believe I could obtain a higher quality/level of life, with my professional abilities, by migrating to another country. armcon Famnet friennet Semesters of university education completed Total number of countries traveled to other than Colombia

Sig. .325 .077 .455 .000

-.032

.559

-.062

.209

.293

.000

.135 .039 .121 .040 .151

.014 .435 .023 .431 .009

a. Dependent Variable: Total number of yes answers to steps taken toward migration

Model Summary Adjusted R Square .232 Std. Error of the Estimate 2.010

Model 1

.505

R Square .255

Again, more important than any other factor, even when controlled for other variables, was the belief that a higher standard of living could be achieved by migrating. The perception of having the necessary resources to migrate also returned as a powerful predictor of completed actions. However, the feeling of social responsibility as a Colombian, a significant predictor of decreased willingness and desire to migrate, had no effect on actual steps taken toward migration, perhaps because of its positive correlation with desire to migrate temporarily. Neither the number semesters of education completed, a concern for personal safety, the network of family members living abroad, nor a concern for present and future, family or personal economic situations had a statistically significant impact on the number of steps taken toward migration. However, previously unimportant variables, such as current or expected negative impacts on quality of life due to the armed conflict, the network of friendship ties to past and

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present migrants, and the number of countries visited, had moderate positive effects on actual preparation and completed steps toward migration. The effect of countries previously visited should however be examined in greater detail. Although the model did control for the other variables such a socioeconomic status, the relationship may still be spurious. Colombians need a visa in order to travel to most countries. Even neighboring Venezuela requires that Colombians entering by plane have a visa. The resources required for travel are similar to those needed in the initial stages of the migration process. However, the effect of having previously left the country cannot necessarily be explained away as solely a question of resources. Any experience outside Colombian borders probably impacts the perception of potential migrants on a number of levels, and may serve as a catalyst that encourages students to take actual steps to satisfy their migration desires. More qualitative research is needed that explores why previous international experience proved statistically significant as a predictor of action steps toward migration, but did not appear connected to either the desire or willingness of a student to migrate. It is also difficult to be certain as to the role of the armed conflict and concrete actions toward migration. Students who felt their lives were being negatively impacted by the armed conflict or were likely to be in the future did not have stronger desires to migrate nor appeared more willing to do so. In this case, preparing to migrate not indicate a desire to do so, but rather a risk-reducing strategy. In the words of one student:
Quite honestly, my hope is to stay and live my entire life in Colombia, because this is my home, but in the case that my life were put in jeopardy as a result of the instability here, I would be prepared to leave Colombia and establish myself elsewhere.

Another notable difference in the factors that seemed to influence preparation to migrate was the significance of friendship ties to past and present migrants. This was the first time the network factor, when controlled for socio-economic status, had any significant effect on attitudes and behavior. Among Colombian university students it seems that friendship, rather than family ties, are most important. The role that a network of friends with migration experience may be connected to the fact that many students who expressed a desire to migrate, either temporarily or permanently, had no idea of what this process required. Friends who have migrated may play important roles in the disseminating of information with respect to migration. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 1. This study lends considerable support to the importance of studying the pre-migratory period, by showing that

macro-level, demographic studies of actual migration often underestimate the role that barriers played by barriers to international mobility in shaping actual migratory flows. Survey data showed that nearly half of all respondents reported

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either definitely no or probably no when asked if they would have the necessary resources to migrate if they wanted to do so. 1. In general, the results of this study suggest that human capital sometimes has only limited ability to transcend

traditional barriers of global mobility. While participants in this study can all be classified as highly educated potential migrants, they varied drastically in desire and willingness to migrate, as well as their perception of whether or not it they possessed the resources necessary to do so. 2. The aspiration/ability model (Carling 2001) is a useful framework for understanding migration and non-migration.

However, aspiration to migrate may not exist as an independent feeling or characteristic but may be strongly influenced by an individuals perception, real or imaginary, of ability to migrate. The inclusion of a variable to measure willingness to migrate may bring more clarity in cases where aspiration and ability are highly stratified. 3. Permanent and temporary migratory projects, although they may inevitably result in the same demographic effect,

are motivated by different attitudes and characteristics, and should be studied separately during the pre-migratory period. 4. There is strong evidence to indicate that a feeling of social responsibility as a Colombian is an important factor in

both desire and willingness to migrate. Those with strong feelings of social responsibility are more likely to desire migrate short migration experiences that aim at acquiring human capital that can be reinvested in Colombia. Those who do not feel a strong social responsibility are both more likely to desire to migrate permanently, or more willing to leave under a broader range of circumstances. 5. Involuntary immobility (Carling 2001) is a useful tool for understanding migration and non-migration, however, it

may also be useful to look at not only the role of satisfied immobility, but also rejected mobility. This study indicates that Colombian students often not only choose to remain immobile, independent of ability or inability to migrate, but also frequently express an aggressive rejection of the migration culture, invoking patriotic sentiment and strongly criticizing those who choose and/or desire to migrate. 6. Networks of past and present, family and friendship ties to migrants were not found to be significant predictors,

when controlled for socioeconomic status, of willingness or desire to migrate. There is weak empirical evidence to show that friendship, but not family networks, have some positive effect on the number of actions taken toward migration. 7. There is empirical support to show that migratory projects are influenced by economic threat and political

instability and violence. However, results suggest that although these macro-level indicators are important, on the microlevel, individuals differ significantly in the way they perceive these issues to be impacting their life.

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8.

It may be useful to broaden the concept of the migration environment to account for the distinct attitudes and

information available to Colombian students depending on their social context. One of the most important factors in the development of migratory project was the perception of gains in quality of life and standard of living that could be attained through migration, but students varied considerably with respect to whether or not they felt living and working in another country would result in a net gain or loss.
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