Montenegro Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism

Technology Needs Assessment for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Montenegro
National Strategy and Action Plan

Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Montenegro

1.

Process and stakeholders participation

echnology needs assessment (TNA) comprises a set of activities within a country to prioritise technologies (in terms of new equipment, techniques, practical knowledge and skills, approaches, etc.) for climate change mitigation and adaptation and propose measures needed to accelerate innovation, transfer, deployment and diffusion of these technologies and measures. TNAs and technology transfer are prominent topics in the global climate negotiations held under the umbrella of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). TNA Montenegro was implemented by the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism (Department for Support to the National Council for Sustainable Development) in the period May 2011 October 2012. The project was supported by the NL Agency part of the Dutch Ministry for Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation. The process was conducted according to guidelines from the updated TNA Handbook1 prepared by UNDP and UNFCCC based on the mandate fromthe 13th Conference of the Parties. The goal of the project was to strengthen the capacity of the Government of Montenegro and other relevant stakeholders to define low emission development strategies adapted to climate change by prioritising technologies that will ensure: Highest benefits in terms of short, medium and long term economic, social and environmental improvements; Contribution to greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the context of national, EU and UNFCCC policies; and Contribution to increased resilience to climate change in priority sectors.

TNA Handbook is available on the website of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Changehttp://unfccc.int/ttclear/jsp/TNAHandbook.jsp
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A wide consultative process lies at the core of TNA activities. In Montenegro, the consultative process included various stakeholders such as representatives of ministries competent for climate change and related issues (energy, transport, water resources management, forestry etc.), relevant agencies and institutions (such as Environmental Protection Agency, Forest Administration, Hydro-meteorological and Public Health Institutes, etc.), local self-governments and the business sector (energy, industry, forestry, tourist organisations), as well as experts from University, non-governmental and international organisations. Overall, more than 50 individuals from these institutions and organisations participated in different project activities. Identification of development priorities in the context of climate change and of priority sub-sectors for mitigation and adaptation were the initial steps in the process. The next step referred to identification of appropriate mitigation and adaptation technologies and measures within the priority sub-sectors. The starting point was to create a long list of possible technologies for Montenegro within different categories (short or medium to long term technologies, small or large scale) and to familiarise the TNA participants with these technologies. Online database ClimateTechWiki and available UNEP Risoe Centre publications were used for technology identification and familiarisation. For information on a number of adaptation measures and technologies, available national sources were also used. Prioritisation of technologies/measures within different categories was conducted based on estimated costs (for mitigation technologies), contributions to greenhouse gases emissionand vulnerability reductions, and participants assessments of total development benefits that would be generated by their application. The TNAssess programme was used as technical support for prioritisation of technology options within a participatory process and for recording of results.

adaptation measures and technologies, available national sources were also used. Prioritisation of technologies/ measures within different categories was conducted based on estimated costs (for mitigation technologies), contributions to greenhouse gases emissionand vulnerability reductions, and participants assessments of total development benefits that would be generated by their application. TheTNAssessprogrammewasusedastechnicalsupportforprioritisationoftechnologyoptionswithina participatoryprocess andforrecording ofresults. TNA Montenegro Figure 1: Key steps in
Figure1:KeystepsinTNAMontenegro Overall goal

Identificationoftechnologyoptionstosupportlowemissionsandlow vulnerabilitydevelopment
Organisation ofassessment

Development priorities

Prioritisingsu bsectors

Technologypri oritisation

Constructinga NationalStrategy andActionPlan

Decidingon thestructureof theNational Team Organising involvementof stakeholders Preparinga workplan

Understandingd evelopment prioritiesofthe country Discussionon climatechange implicationsfor development priorities Clustering development priorities

Initial identificationof subsectors Assessmentof subsectors basedon development andclimate priorities Selectionof prioritysub sectors

Technology identification Assessmentof technologies throughmulti criteria decision analysis Makingfinal decisionson prioritised technologies

Settingof objectives Identifyication ofmeasuresto createenabling frameworks National StrategyandAP toaccelerate technology development andtransfer

NationalStrategy andActionPlanfor accelerationof technology innovationfor climateand development objectives Inputforother developmentand climateplans Technology transferprojects andprogrammes Inputsforcapacity developmentfor innovation

Support tools for the process: TNAssess and ClimateTechWiki

Technology prioritisation was done under the assumption of full penetration at technical potential within most ofprioritisation Montenegros strategic sectors for sustainable development and climate policies. In the Technology was done under the assumption of full penetration final stage of the TNA process the scale of implementation was further detailed by identifying specific at technical potential within most of Montenegros strategic sectors for objectives per sector for each priority technology. Subsequently, measures were identified for creation of enabling environment for deployment of priority policies. technological options at these desired levels. These sustainable development and climate In the final stage of the TNA activitiesmarkedthecompletionoftheworkonthenationallowemissionandclimateresilientstrategy process the scale of implementation was further detailed by identifying and action plan for strategy implementation. Measures included in the action plan were defined as specific objectives per sector for each priority technology. Subsequently, responses to barriers which currently slow down or prevent development, deployment and diffusion of steps followed in TNA Montenegro are new technologies and approaches within Montenegro. The key environment measures were identified for creation of enabling for deployment shownintheFigure1. of priority technological options at these desired levels. These activities

marked the completion of the work on the national low emission and climate 2 resilient strategy and action plan for strategy implementation. Measures included in the action plan were defined as responses to barriers which currently slow down or prevent development, deployment and diffusion of new technologies and approaches within Montenegro. The key steps followed in TNA Montenegro are shown in the Figure 1.

TNA Montenegro fits very well in the national context since it can play an important role in the process of harmonising the domestic with EU policy and practice in the field of climate change and contribute to fulfilment of obligations towards UNFCCC (through, for example, contribution to the formulation of NAMAs Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions or NAP National Adaptation Plan, if or when these processes are conducted in the countr y, or National Communications). Implementation of TNA Montenegro coincides with increased importance that is paid globally to the technology transfer and the increase of global funds for climate change issues.

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TNA Montenegro fits very well in the national context since it can play an important role in the process ofharmonisingthedomesticwithEUpolicyandpracticeinthefieldofclimatechangeandcontributeto fulfilment of obligations towards UNFCCC (through, for example, contribution to the formulation of NAMAsNationallyAppropriateMitigationActionsorNAPNationalAdaptationPlan,iforwhenthese processes are conducted in the country, or National Communications). Implementation of TNA Montenegrocoincideswithincreasedimportancethatispaidgloballytothetechnologytransferandthe increaseofglobalfundsforclimatechangeissues.

Development priorities and climate change implications for priority sectors

Montenegrin priority development sectors are agriculture, forestry, energy and2. tourism; development transport and infrastructure are also Development prioritiesandof climate changeimplications forprioritysectors very important. Poverty reduction and alleviation of regional development Montenegrin priority development sectors are agriculture, forestry, energy and tourism; development disparities stand out as the key socio-economic priorities, whereas of transport and infrastructure are also very important. Poverty reduction and alleviation of regional environmental priorities protection of biodiversity, water resources development disparities stand include out as the key socioeconomic priorities, whereas environmental priorities include protection ofmanagement biodiversity, water resources and coastal area, waste management and coastal area, waste improvements, etc.
improvements,etc. Table 1: Development priorities in the context of climate change
Table1:Developmentprioritiesinthecontextofclimatechange

Socialpriorities
Povertyreduction Climatechangeeducation Improvementsinthepublichealth systeminthecontextofclimate change Improvingthequalityoflifeformost vulnerablecategories Improvingconstructionstandards Strengtheningsocialcohesion Reducingsensitivitytoclimate changeinagricultureandforestry Strengtheningthegovernance system,especiallyonthelocallevel

Economicpriorities
Reducingdependenceonenergy imports Improvedmobilityofthe population Enhancingagriculturalproduction andfoodindustry Raisingcompetitivenessofwood processingindustry Enhancingconstructionstandards (planningandbuilding) Betteruseoftourismpotentials Reducingunemployment Scienceandtechnology development Selectionoffavourableoptions andtechnologiesinenergysector

Environmentalpriorities
Sustainableforestmanagement Airquality Improvementsinwaste management Sustainablewatermanagement Protectionofbiodiversity Sustainablerenewable(new)and alternativeenergysources

TNA Montenegro started with consideration of development priorities and an attempt to define a long term vision of sustainable development in the context of climate change. Longterm development priorities for environmental, economic and social development were discussed by TNA participants, conclusions from the discussions were compared with the development priorities from official planning and strategic documents, and a final selection of development priorities for the TNA process was made and recorded in TNAssess (as shown in the Table 1). These priorities served as a reference framework for checking further decisions in the process, including determination of priority subsectors,

TNA Montenegro started with consideration of development priorities and an attempt to define a long-term vision of sustainable development in the context of climate change. Long-term development priorities for environmental, economic and social development were discussed by TNA participants, conclusions from the discussions were compared with the development priorities from official planning and strategic documents, and a final selection of development priorities for the TNA process was made and recorded in TNAssess (as shown in the Table 1). These priorities served as a reference framework for checking further decisions in the process, including determination of priority sub-sectors, prioritisation of mitigation and adaptation technologies, and formulation of the national strategy for acceleration of technological innovations as a way to achieve climate and development goals. According to the existing models and climate change projections for Montenegro, an increase in average temperature of up to 1.3oC2 can be expected in certain areas by 2030 if global emissions grow at moderate rate, while changes in precipitation regime will range from + 5% to - 20% depending on the season and area. However, if global emissions grow more intensely, much more dramatic changes in the basic climate parameters can be expected in longer term. In the worst case scenario, average temperatures in the north of the country could increase by as much as 4.8oC until the end of the century, while precipitation in the south could be halved. The level of the Adriatic Sea could rise bya maximum of 35 cm3 . Implications of climate change for development are significant. Changes in quantities and patterns of precipitation will in a long run lead to reduced flows and water resource abundance, which can, according to some estimations, reduce energy generation potential for hydropower sources by 25%4 . Available estimations of climate change damages for Montenegrin economy show that substantial decrease of revenues (in the range of 33 to 68 million per year) from tourism could be expected in the far future, while damages from climate change that will be incurred to hydropower plant Piva were estimated at close to 7 million per year already as of 20305 .
Compared to the average values of the base period 1961-1990. Source: First National Communication of Montenegro to UNFCCC, 2010. 4 Source: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report for Working Group II (Kundzewicz et al., 2007), published in UNFCCC/ UNDP TNA Handbook from 2010. 5 UNDP Montenegro, The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Montenegro: A First Look, 2010.
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Negative impacts of climate change on agricultural production are linked to limited plant growth and development i.e. to substantial reduction of yields due to crop production vulnerability to temperature and precipitation changes, reduced availability of agricultural land and decrease in the content of organic matter in soils. Decreases in livestock production are also possible as a result of occurrence of new animal diseases due to heat stress. Negative impacts of climate change on forests include movement of vegetation zones, reduced growth, reduced number of species, drying out of forests and more frequent forest fires. Loss of species (especially in water environments) and reduced productivity of ecosystems are some of the main expected impacts of climate change on biodiversity. As for the coastal area, expected negative impacts include loss of space and biodiversity and beach erosion due to higher level and temperature of the sea. A changing climate has direct and indirect, mainly negative effects on health as it causes changes and processes in human bodies that can lead to injuries and occurrences of infectious and non-infectious diseases, with possible lethal outcomes. Finally, climate change leads to growth, fast development, reproduction and geographical expansion of vectors (mosquitoes, ticks, etc.). Therefore, protection and conservation of water, soil, forests and coastal ecosystems, development of sustainable systems in agriculture, development of capacities for adequate responses to climate change in health sector, planning and development of tourism and energy facilities in accordance with changed climate conditions are all necessary in order to ensure that development goals are not put at risk.

3. Priority sub-sectors for mitigation and adaptation

Relevant sub-sectors for climate change mitigation and adaptation have been identified based on the data from the Montenegrin Environmental Protection Agencys emissions inventory for 2009 and information from the countrys First National Communication. Priority sub-sectors were selected based on the assessments byTNA participants. Sub-sectors where technological interventions were expected to generate the highest benefits for the

3. Prioritysubsectorsformitigationandadaptation
Relevant subsectors for climate change mitigation and adaptation have been identified based on the data from the Montenegrin Environmental Protection Agencys emissions inventory for 2009 and achievement of development priorities (environmental, economic and information from the countrys First National Communication. Priority subsectors were selected based social), reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction of on the assessments byTNA participants. Sub sectors where emissions technological and interventions were expected to generate thewere highest benefits forAn the overview achievementof ofthe development priorities (environmental, vulnerability prioritised. priority sub-sectors is economic and social), reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and reduction of vulnerability shown in the Table 2 below. wereprioritised.AnoverviewoftheprioritysubsectorsisshownintheTable2below.
Table2:OverviewofpriorityTNAsubsectors

Table 2: Overview of priority TNA sub-sectors

Prioritymitigationsubsectors
Energysupply(41%oftotalGHGemissions) Energyconsumptioninresidentialand servicesectors(9%oftheemissions) Aluminiumproduction(syntheticgases30% oftheemissions) Roadtransport(12%oftheemissions)

Priorityadaptationsubsectors
Waterresources Publichealth Agriculturalland Agriculturalproduction Coastalarea Forests

Energy supply and industry (aluminium production) sectors are characterised by outdated and Energy and (aluminium sectors are inefficient supply technologies. Theindustry most significant single emittersproduction) of greenhouse gases are thermal power plant Pljevlja and Aluminium Plant Podgorica gases from electrolyses). Both facilities operate characterised by out-dated and (synthetic inefficient technologies. The most with old and insufficiently upgraded technologies which as a result have high emissions. In energy significant single emitters of greenhouse gases are thermal power plant consumption subsectors (households and services sector/ construction, transport) emission intensive Pljevlja and Aluminium Plant (synthetic economy gases from electrolyses). and inefficient technologies are alsoPodgorica prevailing. Montenegros is almost three times more energy intensivethan theEUeconomy (measured byenergyconsumption perunit ofGDP). Both facilities operate with old and insufficiently upgraded technologies which as a result have high emissions. In energy consumption sub-sectors Asforpossibilitiestoreduceemissions,useoftechnologiesforincreasedefficiencyinenergysupplyand (households and services sector/construction, transport) emission intensive consumption and orientation towards renewable energy sources (RES) were suggested in the analyses conducted prior totechnologies TNA. Fuel switch are in transport and heat generation facilities was also suggested. and inefficient also prevailing. Montenegros economy is For industrial processes (aluminium production) itwasrecommended reconstruct electrolysers andequip almost three times more energy intensive than theto EU economy (measured themwithautomaticcontrolsinordertoreducedurationandfrequencyofanodeeffects.Applicationof by energy consumption per unit of GDP). quite slow, and the most significant progress has recommended measures and technologies is however been made with preparation of projects for utilisation of renewable energy sources and with and services/ construction sectors implementation of energy efficiency measures inuse households As for possibilities to reduce emissions, of technologies for increased (insulation,efficientlighting,energyaudits,initialstepswithapplicationofsolartechnologiesetc.). efficiency in energy supply and consumption and orientation towards renewable sources were suggested in use the analyses conducted Developmentenergy plans in the energy(RES) sector mainly focus on further of hydropower, primarily through large to hydropower plants. Development of smalland hydropower plants is also planned, was as well as prior TNA. Fuel switch in transport heat generation facilities development of wind turbines and better utilisation of solar energy (which is for the time being one of also suggested. For industrial processes (aluminium production) it was the least used energy sources). Despite the focus on renewable sources, there is a plan to build the recommended to reconstruct electrolysers and equip them with second block of the thermal power plant (TPP)Pljevlja, which is currently receiving renewed attention. Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation needs are notfrequency sufficiently integrated in energy automatic controls in order to reduce duration and of anode sectordevelopment plans.of recommended measures and technologies is effects. Application however quite slow, and the most significant progress has been made with The main characteristics of priority subsectors for adaptation (where lack of detailed, specific and preparation projects for utilisation of renewable energy sources and quantifieddataof onvulnerability andadaptation potential ishighlypronounced) are:

with implementation of energy efficiency measures in households and services/ construction sectors (insulation, efficient lighting, energy audits, initial steps with application of solar technologies etc.).

Development plans in the energy sector mainly focus on further use of hydropower, primarily through large hydropower plants. Development of small hydropower plants is also planned, as well as development of wind turbines and better utilisation of solar energy (which is for the time being one of the least used energy sources). Despite the focus on renewable sources, there is a plan to build the second block of the thermal power plant (TPP) Pljevlja, which is currently receiving renewed attention. Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation needs are not sufficiently integrated in energy sector development plans. The main characteristics of priority sub-sectors for adaptation (where lack of detailed, specific and quantified data on vulnerability and adaptation potential is highly pronounced) are: The ways in which water resources are used are not fully in line with sustainability requirements and are not based on estimated climate change risks; There is no adaptation strategy for public health information basis and capacities are not sufficient so that diseases caused by climate change could be prevented and risks from extreme weather events reduced; Potential for vulnerability reduction is not sufficiently used for agricultural land since necessary information and capacities are lacking; in the agricultural production sub-sector there is no specific scientific research and institutional and other capacities needed to ensure systematic response to adaptation challenges are lacking; Planning and management of resources in coastal area are fragmented and do not include expected climate change risks; Capacities for planning and implementation of sustainable forest management measures (as the most suitable framework for adaptation) are insufficient.

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4.

Prioritisation of technologies

Suitable technologies were identified for priority sub-sectors and classified into appropriate categories (from short term small scale technologies to medium to long term ones with large scale of deployment6 ). Prioritisation of technologies within different categories was conducted based on assessments of social, environmental, economic and climate benefits they would generate. The software tool TNAssess was used as a technical support for prioritisation of a certain number of technologies. TNAssess supports multi criteria decision analysis in participatory meetings whereby technology options can be assessed against at least four criteria development benefits for environment, economy and society, as well as benefits for greenhouse gas emission and vulnerability reductions. In some cases additional criteria such as market potential were included in the assessments. TNA participants scored the identified technology options against the development and climate criteria and subsequently weighted these criteria to arrive at a common value so that scores could be compared. Based on these assessments, TNAssess generated overall benefits from deployment of technology options and enabled graphic and table overviews indicating priority rankings. Analysis of the benefit to cost ratio for technology deployment was also enabled by the software and carried out for mitigation technologies (for which detailed cost estimations were made). Sensitivity analysis was performed for the prioritisation results in order to get robust assessments. Final decision on priority technologies was made on the basis of total benefits and earlier estimations of costs and emission reductions. For categories where less than three technologies were identified, TNAssess was not used; instead, priorities were decided based on participants evaluations of the potential of a specific technology to contribute to the fulfilment of climate and development goals. An overview of priority technologies is given in the Tables 3 and 4below.

Categories of technologies and/ or measures used in the TNA process are: small scale (eg. technologies that are applied at the household level) or large scale technologies, and short term (currently available in the market) or medium to long term technologies (currently in pre-commercial or research stage, available in mid- to long term).
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5.

Desired scales of deployment and diffusion of prioritised technologies in Montenegrin TNA strategy

In the final stage of TNA Montenegro objectives were set (also shown in the Tables 3 and 4) for priority technologies, and barriers that currently slow down or hinder deployment and diffusion of technologies at desired scale were identified. In response to identified barriers, solutions were proposed and measures were defined to create an enabling environment and accelerate deployment and diffusion of technologies. The National TNA strategy was thus compiled, with the following constituent parts: Portfolios of priority technologies for mitigation and adaptation with costs and benefits (see section 4); Objectives i.e. desired levels of deployment of individual technologies (determined based on official documents and stakeholder consultation); and Set of measures for acceleration of transfer, deployment and diffusion of technologies, which comprise action plan for strategy implementation (and were defined based on stakeholder consultation).

Analyses conducted in the TNA process recommend solar technologies as a high priority for energy sector (sub-sectors of energy supply and consumption in residential and service sectors), which is responsible for half of the total emissions of greenhouse gases. Solar water heating systems have been prioritised as a technology that helps achieve significant energy savings. In the energy supply sub-sector TNA objective has been set at 100 MW of installed capacity for solar photovoltaic panels and solar thermal power plants during a period of 25 years. TNA recommends acceleration of deployment and diffusion of these technologies which are now at the very beginning of entering the market in Montenegro7 or, as is the case with solar thermal power plants, non-existent in the country, since they have significant potential and have not been paid sufficient attention in the policies thus far.
According to the results of 2011 population census, for example, only 109 out of the total number of 247,000 housing units have had the equipment for solar energy utilisation. Montesol project that is being implemented since last year provides favourable conditions for instalment of solar collectors; so far, around 100 households have used this support. There is also a programme of support for instalment of solar equipment at remote mountain summer cottages (where the state finances 70% of the total cost of installation).
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Table3:Prioritytechnologiesforclimatechangemitigationwithestimatedemissionreductionpotential,assessmentofbenefits,deploymentobjectivesandcosts

Subsector/prioritised technology

Potentialfor Resultof Objective(aspirationallevelofdeployment) mitigationin TNAssess Mt(for25y) benefits

11.05 0.4 0.96 2.83 0.18 0.03 0.02 0.28 Notdone Notdone 222 273 Notdone 70MW 241 Notdone 50MW 50MW 309 420GWhannually(92MWinstalledcapacity);10 15%oftotalsupply

Estimatedtotalcosts over25yearsin(for setobjectives)

228,969,600 191,226,750 244,182,100 1,199,519,300 384,196,613 1,288,568,925 280,156,814 258,596,250

Subsector:Energysupply

SmallHPP

Solarphotovoltaicpanels Solarthermalplants(STP)

Plasmagasification

Subsector:Energyconsumption

Solarsystems

Insulationofbuildings

80%ofallhouseholds(individualbuildings);widespreadusein collectivehousingandinservicesector 90%ofthetotalhousingstock Allcommercialbuildings,50%ofhousingunits Allpublicinstitutionsandlargecommercialbuildings,app50%oflarge housingobjects(collectivehousing)

Efficientairconditioning

Automatedcontrolofenergy consumptioninbuildings

Subsector:Transport
Notdone 0.027 Notdone 0.027 0.009 0.134 3.525 Notdone Notdone 168 207 Notdone Notdone Notdone

Systemenhancementanddoublingthenumberofpassengersby2025 30%oftheentirevehiclefleet

Notestimated 49,500,000 Notestimated 393,300,000 180,000,000 21,000,000 Allelectrolysersoverthecourseof25years 2,167,200

Publictransportimprovements

Liquefiedpetroleumgas

Bikelanes

Electricvehicles

Pluginhybrids

Intelligenttransportsystem

Developmentofcyclinginfrastructureinurbancentresand expansion/linkagestonationalandregionalnetworks 3%(or9,000vehicles)ofthetotalnumberofprivatevehiclesatthe endof25years 1,7%(or5,000vehicles)ofthetotalnumberofprivatevehiclesatthe endof25years Thesystemcoversmaintransportcentres

Subsector:Aluminiumproduction

Increasingtheefficiencyand operatingtemperaturein electrolysers Aluminapointfeedingand betterprocesscontrol Inertanodes 3.525 3.525 Notdone Notdone

Allelectrolysersoverthecourseof25years Allelectrolysersoverthecourseof25years

5,569,200 20,066,250

Note:Estimationofemissionreductionsinaluminiumproductionsubsectorof3.525Mtiscumulativeforallthreetechnologies.

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Objective(aspirationallevelof deployment) Costsof deployment
Notdone Notdone 213 Low Relativelylow Veryhigh Ensureadequatetreatmentofdrinking waterinhouseholdswhennecessary Betterandsaferuseoftechnologyinareas withscarcewaterresources 135 Notdone Wastewatertreatmentplantsfor agglomerationswith>10,000inhabitants by2025;widespreadreuse Halfcurrentlossesinwatersupplysystems by2025 Eliminationofinefficientappliancesfrom themarketby2025 High Moderately high Low Moderately high Establishthesystemforsupervisingnew andprospectivediseases Notdone Relativelylow Moderately high Notdone 176 Preparationofstrategicdocuments, improvementsindataavailability Halvetheshareofpopulationthatis currentlynotcoveredbyregulardrinking watercontrolprogrammesby2025 166 Notdone Transferofknowledgefromother countries,planningandimplementationof prioritymedicalresearchonhealth impactsofCC Capacitybuildingforadequateresponseto healthchallengescausedbyCC Moderately high 313 Irrigationsystemsonsome50%ofsuitable areasor35,000haby2025 Moderately high

Table4:Priorityadaptationtechnologiesandmeasureswithindicatedadaptationpotential,assessmentofbenefits,deploymentobjectivesandcategoriesofcosts

Subsector/priority technology(ormeasure)

Potentialforadaptationinsubsectors(overthe Resultof courseof25years) TNAssess benefits

Subsector:Waterresources

Treatmentofdrinkingwaterin households Rainwaterharvesting

Provisionofdrinkingwaterofadequatequality

Decreasingthepressureonsurfaceandgroundwater byprovisioningadditionalquantitiesofwater

Wastewatertreatmentand reuse

Preservationofwaterquality,savingsinavailable quantitiesofcleanwater

Reductionoflosses

Preservationofwaterresources,increaseinavailable waterquantities

Useofwaterefficient appliances

Savingsofupto1/3ofwaterusedinhouseholds

Subsector:Publichealth

StrategyandAPforprevention andmitigationofimpacts Controlofdrinkingwater

Loweringofrisksfromillnessesoccurringasa consequenceofclimatechange Preventionofoccurrenceandspreadingof waterbornediseases

Strengtheningsupervisionand controlofinfectiousdiseases

Controlofspreadingofinfectiousdiseasesrelatedto climatechange(andofvectorsspreading)

Medicalresearch

Contributiontohealthprotectionandreductionof vulnerabilitytoclimatechange

Strengtheninghealthsector capacities,especiallyin emergencyservices

Timelyreactionofhealthservicesmitigateseffectsof climatechangeonhealth

Subsector:Agriculture

Sprinkleranddripirrigation

Optimisationofwaterresourcesuse,increaseof production,assistancetoproducerswithadaptation

Subsector/priority technology(ormeasure)
252 213 Moderately high Moderately high Relativelylow

Potentialforadaptationinsubsectors(overthe Resultof courseof25years) TNAssess benefits

Objective(aspirationallevelof deployment)

Costsof deployment

Adequatemanureuseandsoil fertilitycontrol Combinedagricultural production 201

Loweringofimpactsofheatandwaterstresson cultivatedcrops Loweringofrisksforproductiononsmaller agriculturalholdings

Practicaltrainingforproducers

Reductionofvulnerabilitythroughapplicationof modernagriculturalpracticesandknowledge 289

Enhancingthesystemforsoilfertility controlandadequatemanureuse Strengtheningsupportsystemfor developmentofcombinedproductionasa formofadaptationtoclimatechange Advancementandexpansionofexisting programmes

Subsector:Coastalarea
Moderately high

Integratedmanagement (includingsetbackline)

DecreaseofrisksfromCC,developmentof settlementsandeconomyinaclimateresilient manner

161 Notdone

Protectionandrestorationof wetlands Systematicobservationand monitoringofchangesinthe coastalarea

Preventionorattenuationoffloodwaves,reduction oferosion Provisionofreliableinformationonbaseline conditionsandoncontinuouschangesincoastalarea

Relativelylow Moderately high

EstablishICZMsystem legaland institutionalframeworkanddefineset backlineinaccordancewithBarcelona Conventionrequirementsinthenext5 years Enhancingthesystemforprotectionof valuablewetlandecosystems Developmentofcomprehensiveand reliableinformationsystemby2025and establishmentofcontinuousmonitoringof coastalprocesses Improvingmanagementandimplementing protectivemeasuresinordertoimprove resilienceofforeststoCC

Subsector:Forests
238 Moderately high

Implementationofsustainable forestmanagementpractices

Sustainableforestmanagement planning

Protectionmeasures(maintenanceandprotectionof existingforests;conversionofcoppiceintohigh forests;rehabilitationofdegradedforests)increase resiliencetoCC Preservationofproductivityofforestsandforest ecosystemshealth,andconservationofsoilandwater resources

186

Enhancingthesystemformanagement planninginordertomitigatefuture negativeimpactsofCConforest ecosystems

Moderately high

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If adequate support is provided for their application, solar sources and small hydropower plants (TNA objective for SHPPs has been taken over from the draft updated Energy development strategy) would have an installed capacity of around 200 MW at the end of the assumed 25 year period, which is close to the current capacity of TPP Pljevlja and is slightly below one fourth of the total installed capacity in the country. By applying these technologies, emissions would be reduced bymore than 15 Mt of CO2 equivalent, which is roughly three times the countrys total annual emissions (counting the 2009 level). Necessary investments (not taking into account expected lower prices of solar technologies over the time) are in the range of 26 million a year. Together with application of technologies for efficient use of energy that have been prioritised in the TNA process (insulation of buildings, use of efficient air conditioners, automated energy management in buildings) and of other energy efficiency (EE) measures and technologies, such development in the energy sector would significantly contribute to a decrease of dependence on energy imports but also to fulfilment of other, very important goals such as harmonisation with the EU climate policy, increase in EE and competitiveness, market development and employment, reduction of pollution and improvements in the quality of housing conditions, and others. On the other hand, meeting the climate mitigation and especially the EU goal of reducing CO 2 emissions by 80 - 95% until 2050 8 can hardly be guaranteed if solutions such as development of the second block of TPP Pljevlja are opted for in energy sector development. Likewise, mobilisation of necessary financial resources for incentives for EE and RES technologies can hardly be achieved if support (through direct or indirect subsidies) for energy and emission intensive industries such as aluminium production is continued. Large hydropower plants were not included in the TNA strategy (even though their potential for emission reductions is significant and undisputed) due to negative environmental impacts and some controversies that have followed so far plans for development of these facilities.

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EU Roadmap for Moving to a Competitive Low Carbon Economy in 2050.

Plasma technology has been prioritised in the category of long term technologies in energy supply sub-sector despite some uncertainties (related to its applicability, environmental impacts and similar) and very high costs. It was assessed that this option should be further examined, primarily due to the fact that it has a potential to generate significant benefits not only for energy generation but also for waste management (resolving the problem of final disposal of waste). As for the TNA strategy for road transport sub-sector, it is based on improvements of public and non-motorised transport modes and gradual introduction of low-emission technological solutions for vehicles and traffic regulation. In case a long term solution is found for the only plant in the sub-sector of aluminium production and the plant continues to operate, introduction of thee TNA priority technological measures would be an efficient and cost effective way to substantially decrease duration of anode effects and thus reduce emissions of synthetic gases. The TNA strategy for priority adaptation sub-sectors is complementary with relevant sectoral policies and goals and is mainly based on technologies and measures that will: contribute to a rational use of water, land and forest resources and to preservation of their quality; strengthen the public health sector to provide adequate responses in climate change context; provide adequate support with adaptation to agricultural producers; strengthen structures for integrated management in the coastal area.

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6.

TNA strategy and action plan implementation

A final step in the formulation of the TNA strategy for Montenegro, after determination of priority technologies for mitigation and adaptation and identification of the desired scale of their implementation within the country, was to identify measures for accelerating the development, deployment and diffusion of prioritised technological options. These measures form an action plan for implementation of the TNA strategy for Montenegro and include priority actions9, responsibilities for their implementation, time frames, costs, and monitoring and evaluation proposals on the sub-sector level. Costs for the implementation of action plan measures were estimated taking into account administrative (policy making and implementation) and capacity building costs, as well as costs for networking, improvements in the availability of information, training and awareness raising activities, and similar; financial implications of infrastructure and fiscal measures were not included. The TNA Montenegro participants underlined that the TNA strategy could only be implemented (i.e. that the priority technologies could be deployed at desired scales) with systematic support measures elaborated in detail in the action plan. Measures identified by the stakeholders as relevant for multiple sub-sectorsand the ones that should be paid special attention are:
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Fiscal (lowering of VAT and customs rates) and financial (subsidies, favourable loans) incentives; Awareness raising and educational campaigns; Trainings to transfer and disseminate necessary specialists knowledge and skills; Discouraging unsustainable behaviours (by adopting and implementing appropriate instruments, regulations and standards);

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The action plan comprises following groups of measures for each sub-sector/ technology: 1) networking; 2) policies and instruments for their implementation; 3) organisational and behavioural change; 4) market, system support and financial services; 5) training, education and development of skills; 6) international cooperation and intellectual property rights.

Improved cooperation and coordination among competent institutions as well as with other stakeholders (private sector, scientific . and research community, civil society); Enhancing databases and information systems; Conducting studies, analyses and research for better understanding of implications of climate change for economy, society and the environment.

A number of pilot/demonstration projects (at the level of project ideas) has been identified and recommended in the TNA process as a means of strategy and action plan implementation. These are: Organisation of workshops and preparation of manuals for making and installing solar collectors (while integrating guidelines for protection of space and the environment) Mojkovac as a pilot municipality for achievement of climate and development goals by using RES and EE technologies: preparation and implementation of several small scale projects (small hydropower plant on gravitational water supply system, efficient public lighting, solar and other RES technologies for supplying electricity to remote households not connected to grid, and similar) that would have a demonstration character and are recognised in the local Green Agenda; researching possibilities for construction of solar thermal power plant at the location of restored mining tailings Feasibility study for development of bike lanes in Podgorica with proposal of the most feasible solutions (pilot lanes) in accordance with existing spatial plans Pilot project for using electric vehicles/ buses in public transport with mobile charging stations with solar panels Preparation of pollination map, including survey of the existing conditions (measurements and organisation of data), strengthening of cooperation among expert services (health, meteorological, forestry, spatial planning) and creation of preconditions for prevention and treatment of pollen related illnesses

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Analysis and assessment of vulnerability of agricultural producers for extreme weather conditions and climate change in general Preparation of study on coastal area wetlands (significance for reduction of vulnerability to climate change in coastal area, links with Natura 2000, degree to which they are endangered and necessary protection measures) Research on vulnerability of different types of forests to climate change Adoption of national climate policy and systematic integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies are very important for the implementation of TNA strategy and action plan. Even though these processes are beyond the scope of the TNA project, TNA represents a significant contribution to both formulation of climate policy and integration into sectoral policies because it offers concrete analyses and parameters which can be used by decision makers to evaluate different alternatives and opt for appropriate solutions. The EU integration process will represent an important impetus for the implementation of the TNA strategy and action plan since TNA results are based on the same premises as the European climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Implementation of TNA results and recommendations will have synergetic effects for a range of national policies and programmes, such as, for example, the recently adopted objective of 33% share of renewable sources in total energy consumption and energy efficiency programmes. A very important role for the TNA implementation is also played by transfer of internationally available knowledge through networking and cooperation on all levels, including local levels (cooperation of municipalities with corresponding partners in other countries) and the level of scientific and research centres. It is also necessary to mobilise local knowledge as an important resource and to apply it in a way that serves the function of acceleration of technology deployment. As for financing of the deployment and diffusion of priority TNA technologies, a strong and unambiguous state support is needed, both through provision of financial incentives and participation in project funding, as well as through adequate policy making and implementation. Local self-governments are also in a position and need to contribute, within the limits of their competencies. Mobilisation of financial resources of the private sector is exceptionally important, and can be done, among other ways, through public-private partnerships and through creation of favourable conditions for investments.

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International climate funds and bilateral assistance represent yet another channel for raising part of the necessary funds for deployment of TNA technologies. International financing institutions (especially EBRD) are also important.

7.

Conclusions and recommendations

The TNA process has contributed to awareness raising on climate change in Montenegro and has demonstrated importance of participation of different stakeholders for generation of additional knowledge and information and for the quality of overall results. TNA results encapsulated in the strategy and action plan can be used to support preparation of documents such as Second National Communication, National Sustainable Development Strategy (the review of which is forthcoming), NAMAs and NAP. TNA informs decision makers on advantages and disadvantages of different approaches and on implications of climate change for future development. At the same time, a portfolio of priority technologies is recommended to relevant institutions, together with the action plan for acceleration of their deployment. It is up to the government to make choices regarding the manner and dynamics of implementation of TNA recommendations based on available administrative, technical and financial capacities. TNA also defines a set of actions and measures where stakeholders other than administration have the key role in their implementation. Majority of technologies prioritised in the TNA process are short term technologies, which means that they are well known commercial technologies present at markets. Systematic effort for creation of enabling environment is necessary if deployment of these technologies is to be accelerated. At the same time, importance of research and development has been emphasised for transfer, deployment and diffusion of technological innovations as a necessary element for deployment of certain short term (pertaining to further research of potential, collection of data and vulnerability assessments, the need to adjust to local conditions and similar) and especially for medium to long term technologies. The TNA strategy and action plan complement several of the current programmes and projects in the areas of climate, energy and other policies and a growing number of initiatives to direct the countrys development 21

towards low-carbon technologies and green economy. At the same time, TNA Montenegro indicates that attainment of development, climate and EU integration goals is possible if the current practice of favouring emissions and energy intensive projects and solutions is modified and support redirected towards new technologies that contribute to achievement of sustainable development goals and generating higher total benefits. Having in mind the conducted process and considering overall conditions it is possible to single out the following recommendations for the TNA implementation: Climate change concerns and results of the TNA process should be integrated into sectoral policies and strategies; integration of TNA results with other UNFCCC processes such as national communications, NAMAs and NAP are of particular importance; Presentation and promotion of the key TNA recommendations and results are needed; the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism should play a lead role in pointing out the climate change issues and the need for their thorough consideration in preparing development plans and programmes; Climate and sustainable development goals can be achieved through coordinated efforts, despite limited administrative and other stakeholders capacities; An integrated approach is needed in stimulating application of EE and RES technologies and measures; Inter-sectoral cooperation is important for the implementation of TNA strategy and action plan; it can be stimulated and developed through appropriate forums for continued discussions on priority technologies; The National Council on Sustainable Development can give an important contribution to improvements in inter-sectoral coordination and cooperation; continuation of work of the Steering Committee established under the TNA project and expansion of this body to include representatives of the Ministry of Finance could also serve as a forum to support implementation of TNA strategy and action plan; 22

 Continuous processes on capacity development at all levels are necessary; It is necessary to make additional efforts and ensure commitment of key stakeholders so the TNA would not remain just on paper; providing the needed funding for implementation requires modification of the so far state policies and active participation of all the stakeholders; It is necessary to improve availability of advice and examples of good practices for planning and implementing adaptation technologies/measures; Transfer of knowledge through networking and cooperation (including cooperation between local self-government units, scientific and research institutions and representatives of civil sector within the country and on international level) also represents an important condition for implementation of TNA results.

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