The Huffington Post Features Dartmouth Professor Michael Herron On Al Franken Recount, 11/17/08

Franken's Position Looks Surprisingly Good, New Political Study Shows http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/17/frankens-position-looks-s_n_...
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Franken's Position Looks Surprisingly Good, New Political

Study Shows
November 17, 2008 05:38 PM
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Read More: Al Franken, Coleman Senate Seat, Dartmouth College, Franken Coleman, Franken Recount, Franken Senate Seat, Franken Vote, Michael
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1 of 9 12/19/2008 10:42 AM
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Despite trailing his opponent by slightly more than two hundred votes, Democratic challenger Al Franken stands a strong chance of passing Sen. Norm
Coleman during the upcoming recount, according to at least one prominent political scientist.
Professor Michael C. Herron of Dartmouth College, has put together a new study of the voting patterns in Minnesota, in the process determining that the
majority of voters who cast unrecorded ballots in the Senate race were likely Franken supporters.
"If someone put a gun to my head and said, 'You have to bet,' I would bet Franken," Herron said, when reached by phone. "It won't be a wipe-out. Two
hundred votes is effectively tied. We just know that, in this case, Democrats tend to [screw up their ballots] more often [than Republicans]." In Minnesota,
the "intent" of the voter is considered during recounts.
According to Herron's analysis, of the 2.9 million people who went to the polls in Minnesota, there were approximately 34,000 residual voters in the Senate
race. In other words, there were 34,000 more ballots cast than total number of recorded votes for all the Senate candidates.
Why the difference? A good portion of voters, Herron concludes, voted in the presidential election but deliberately did not vote for a Senate candidate. These
people won't matter when it comes to a recount.
There is, however, a portion of the 34,000 who intended to vote for one of the Senate candidates but messed up. Voters were supposed to fill in the circle
next to the name of the candidate they supported. Some, however, marked X's. Others circled the name itself or crossed out the names of candidates they
didn't like.
This group is key to determining the Minnesota Senate victor.
In his study, Herron looked at the figures from the 2006 congressional election and the 2008 presidential election to determine which areas of the state have
the most residual voters. By isolating these areas, Herron could determine which group was most likely to have wanted to vote one way but failed to cast
their ballots properly.
He found that the majority of residual voters came from two, not necessarily distinct places: African American communities and traditionally Democratic
communities. With the former, he theorized, there was likely a "turnout surge" -- many people went to the polls to support Barack Obama and no one else
(or at least not Franken). The latter, however, contained voters who "almost certainly intended to cast a vote in the Senate race [and likely for Franken] but
for some reason did not do so."
Story continues below
How big that group is, is crucial. And a way to figure it out is to first look at how Barack Obama and John McCain fared in the state.
According to Herron there was an approximately 0.34 percent residual vote rate in presidential race voting among Minnesotans. This means that of the 2.9
million votes cast for a presidential candidate, nearly 10,000 individuals wanted to vote but screwed up. There may have been people who wanted to vote in
local and congressional contests, but not the presidential race. But this group is likely quite small.
In other words, there are probably somewhere between 8,000 and 10,000 Minnesota voters who had clear problems filling out a ballot when voting for all
contests (Senate and presidential). Many of these individuals, moreover, hailed from Democratic communities.
"Ultimately, the anticipated recount may clarify the relative proportions of intentional versus unintentional residual voters," writes Herron. "At present, though,
the data available suggest that the recount will uncover many of the former and that, of the latter, a majority will likely prove to be supportive of Franken."
All Franken needs is to win more than 207 votes from this group than Coleman, and he will take over the Senate seat.
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More in Politics...
Franken Senate Victory Projected

Jewish Groups Convene For Obama Transition Meeting
Perino Grades Political Pundits: "Zero" For Fairness
AP: Minnesota Recount Will Drag Into Next...
2 of 9 12/19/2008 10:42 AM
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- milo_h_minderbinder See Profile I'm a Fan of milo_h_minderbinder permalink
Coleman lead currently at 136 after two days and less than half the vote counted.
A couple of the biggest democratic strongholds are only in the range of 30% counted so Franken has a very good chance.
Although it will probably be close enough that contested ballots determine the result.
Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:23 AM on 11/21/2008

- OkieIntellectual See Profile I'm a Fan of OkieIntellectual permalink
Good gods, how long does it take them to count votes in Minnesota? Seriously, hasn't this vote count been going on for about two weeks now, maybe closer
to three? I realize its a pretty redneck state, but come on guys.
Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:42 PM on 11/20/2008

Nope, you have your facts wrong.
They finished counting a while ago.
Earlier this week they started completely from scratch and counting ALL the ballots AGAIN and BY HAND.
Obviously going through almost three million ballots individually by hand is going to take a while. Getting all that done in a couple weeks is pretty
impressive.

- kylie See Profile I'm a Fan of kylie permalink
With the Republicans "challenging" every ballot for Franken, and stalling, it could take until next November--we know how good the GOP is at
attempting to shield us from the truth!

Actually at this point Franken has challenged slightly more ballots than Coleman. But from a strategic standpoint, it's pretty necessary for
both sides to challenge about the same number of ballots.
Those are the big wild card at this point, I suspect many of the challenged ballots will be awarded, particularly since many are ones
counted the first time around, but at this point it's anyone's guess.
Even when the recount is done, it will probably be close enough that we don't know the result until after all the challenged ballots are
resolved, probably mid December.

- adamsmith3 See Profile I'm a Fan of adamsmith3 permalink
Wow, Franken's pulling a Bush. Maybe he can have the Minnesota state supreme court pick him as Senator.

3 of 9 12/19/2008 10:42 AM
If anything Franken is pulling a Gore...but in this case they're going to actually go back and count every ballot again.
But in reality Franken isn't really "pulling" anything - MN state law mandates an automatic recount when it's this close so Franken didn't even have to
request the recount.

Oh, "Franken's pulling a Bush"?

Hmm. The Republican Circus is swarming(ala Florida style 2000)in Minnesota.
Did the Republican election officials take the absentee ballots home, to babysit(double mark them?), are they stalling and challening every ballot?,
did ballots in the most Democratic precincts find their way to abandoned boxes in school yards/hillsides?, Hmmmm?
The lesson from Florida--take your damn time and count every valid ballot!

- Blueboy1938 See Profile I'm a Fan of Blueboy1938 permalink
On the contrary, it was Al Gore that requested a recount in Florida, not George W. Bush. Bush succeeded in stopping the recount by taking the
issue to the United States Supreme Court in order to overturn the Florida Supreme Court's ruling that the recount proceed.
In Al Franken's case, the recount is mandated with that few votes separating the candidates. Al Franken had no need to request a recount, which
was automatically done by the Minnesota Secretary of State.
Apparently, Mr. "Adam Smith" seeks to malign Mr. Franken with the Bush comparison. That dog won't hunt.

- freerepublicrat See Profile I'm a Fan of freerepublicrat permalink
amazing how a gay how hsa offende woman/minorities and has not paid his taxes properly is almost in the Sanate...I know its not because of him ...but the
republican!!!
the independent candidate running got more than 150,000 votes!!
this guy is a laughing matter

- OkieIntellectual See Profile I'm a Fan of OkieIntellectual permalink
Was that even english?

- Blueboy1938 See Profile I'm a Fan of Blueboy1938 permalink
Please translate: "Amazing how a gay how hsa offende woman/minorities . . . ."

- geaaronson See Profile I'm a Fan of geaaronson permalink
I certainly hope that Bill O`Reilly stays in the US and continues to mouth off on his personal set of peeves. There`s nothing more entertaining than a
frustrated conservative chewing his fatuous ego over the airwaves in a windbag of scurrilous remarks about much ado about nothing. If you thought the
previous sentence lacked syntax and clarity, just watch Bill, the man of the hour.

- judesedit See Profile I'm a Fan of judesedit permalink
Isn't it ironic that he refused to entertain the idea of election fraud, tampering, stealing, or shenanigans of any sort in 2000 and 2004? I bet he's whistling a
different tune right now.

- TKDuff See Profile I'm a Fan of TKDuff permalink
I hope Franken wins and not only do I hope he wins, but I also hope that he gets a seat in the Senate committee that overlooks the FCC or the
telecommunications and the media. That will be the ultimate d***o not not that more like a baseball bat up O'Reilly and Faux news' collective butt.

- Confused1 See Profile I'm a Fan of Confused1 permalink
You're obviously against the First Amendment. Liberal talk radio was/is a complete failure. Besides, if you don't like what you're hearing, CHANGE
THE CHANNEL. If the Unfairness Act is reimplemented, I guess NPR will have to start giving reports on the opposite views of the "global warming"
issue. Now the only side they report is that it is caused by man, guess they'll have to talk with the multitude of scientists out there that dispell that
theory and let people decide what the facts are. Right now all you hear is the one side. I guess MSNBC, NBC (National Barack Channel), ABC and
CBS will have to have report the conservative side of stories, THAT ought to be interesting. I can see Chris Matthison exploding right now! GREAT!
I LOVE IT!

good for you Stalin

- dphilip See Profile I'm a Fan of dphilip permalink
It is interesting how democrats think that their ideas are the answers to the world's problems...
4 of 9 12/19/2008 10:42 AM
Yet they fear that their ideas are so thin that they can't hold up to the scrutiny of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Bill O'Reilly?
There's a word I"m searching for..........oh Dissent! necessary and patriotic...right?

- dogwatch See Profile I'm a Fan of dogwatch permalink
Try screwtinny for a better description of the drug induced Limbaugh effort to study anything before moving his lips.

Calling what Rush and Bill do "scrutiny" is incredibly generous.

- dejayel See Profile I'm a Fan of dejayel permalink
"....the scutiny of Rush....O'Reilly...."? Who decided that anyone needs this trio of know- it alls approval? From my perspective, the biggest
complement that an idea can have it that these three oppose it. Hannity is still trying to elect McCain, O'Reilly's trying to stay ahead of of
MSNBC, and Limbaugh.....well his sphere of influence is decreasing on a daily basis.

- mari2JJ See Profile I'm a Fan of mari2JJ permalink
Actually there is one very well established rule. If the far right ie Bill O , Rush, Hannity etc are for something. vote for whatever is the exact
opposite because that will work best for the most people. It is far past strange that any conservative can still believe in that point of view
after the Republicans have decimated our economy, have made our country a pariah in the world and have themselves been part of a big
cabal to wreck our country's economy. All that while pounding their chests about their great patriotism. Have a look at this economy during
a Republican administration say, compared with that of Bill Clinton and alas you will get the difference immediately. Republicans =
wreckers, Democrats = builders. Of course, i feel a bit sad for Republicans these days because probably historically, their President for the
last 8 years has been the worst of the worst. Very sad for them to face up to.

- neocon666 See Profile I'm a Fan of neocon666 permalink
"It is interesting how democrats think that their ideas are the answers to the world's problems..."
As opposed to republicans, who KNOW they have the only answer to the worlds problems. You guys have had a strangle hold on all three
brances of government for 6 years and set a record for filibusters for the last 2 (blaming the lack of legislation passed on the democrats, of
course), and gave use a $1 Trillion war and Wall Street's collapse from your deregulation (which of course, you blame on minority lending).
YOU LOST! SUCK IT UP FOR THE NEXT 4 YEARS (IF YOU'RE LUCKY).

There are More Comments on this Thread. Click Here To See them All
- rudedog1950 See Profile I'm a Fan of rudedog1950 permalink
What a joke. Now all we need is Michael Moore as a senator. God help us all.

- cmunion See Profile I'm a Fan of cmunion permalink
Oh, I would love Michael Moore to be my senator. He would actually work to make laws that benefitted middle class america. Could you imagine??

- dogwatch See Profile I'm a Fan of dogwatch permalink
Actually God will help us all if Michael Moore becomes a senator. I have this from a reliable inside source. He is said to have enjoyed all the Moore
movies and this makes him partial to the creator. Of the movies, that is.

- mari2JJ See Profile I'm a Fan of mari2JJ permalink
Very true!!!!!

- LolaP See Profile I'm a Fan of LolaP permalink
michael moore for senator? sounds like a good idea to me

With the election fraud, that still is being served to us via the Republican Party who wanted "NO Paper trails", and to continue with the
Sequoia and Diebold cheat machines, Michael Moore's input would be welcomed.
He would make a great senator.

- mamadeus See Profile I'm a Fan of mamadeus permalink
5 of 9 12/19/2008 10:42 AM
Hey thanks good buddy. I think we need to start a Micheal Moore for congress support group. He at
least would be accountable to the American People.

It certainly would "help us all".

People dedicated to representing Americans and not corporations!
And, boy, does the FCC need to be cleaned out and start to be enforced. Tired of those multiple "conflict of interests" that dictate how the "news" is
presented.

- RoadsideBill See Profile I'm a Fan of RoadsideBill permalink
I sure hope Franken wins, but how and why could/would people properly fill out a circle in the presidential race -- counted properly by the machines -- but
then decide to put an "x", or cross out other names, or circle the circle, in the next race down the ballot? That makes little sense to me. Not saying it didn't
happen, but it sounds odd.

- ibivi See Profile I'm a Fan of ibivi permalink
In Canada we use a basic system where the selection is made by marking an X in a circle beside the name. The ballot has clear instructions as to
how to mark your selection. The ballots are counted manually and the candidates can have scrutineers on hand to verify the count. It is not high
tech, but it works.

- PattyElle See Profile I'm a Fan of PattyElle permalink
unfortunately, in the USA our voting machines have probably always been corrupt, but we only really found out about it in 2000. for some
reason, both parties seem to want it to stay this way.... probably fraud on both accounts.

- cucumber See Profile I'm a Fan of cucumber permalink
The presidential votes weren't counted on those ballots either, but they didn't matter because Obama carried the state without them.

- adCalifornia See Profile I'm a Fan of adCalifornia permalink
I'd feel a lot better if this analysis was coming from Nate Silver.
Anyway, please join me in a Stuart Smally Daily Affirmation
Altogether now:
You're Good Enough, You're Smart Enough, and Doggone It, People Like You

- KayWrites See Profile I'm a Fan of KayWrites permalink
So count already!!!!

- mero909 See Profile I'm a Fan of mero909 permalink
Franken gonna steal the election? Ironic.

Get a clue. Not "stealing" and nothing ironic about it.
Close elections should be recounted. Period.
And sometimes the result changes, sometimes it doesn't. If your guy doesn't win, you're going to have to suck it up and deal.

- PattyElle See Profile I'm a Fan of PattyElle permalink
EXACTLY!!! we hadn't even heard about election stealing in this country until Bush stole it from Gore!!!! But gratefully, Franken has more chutzpah
then Gore did.

- gosioux See Profile I'm a Fan of gosioux permalink
I would not call a legitimate recount as stealing. Stealing an election is when you go to court to stop a legitimate recount as Bush & Cheney did in
2000.

- arrtimus See Profile I'm a Fan of arrtimus permalink
6 of 9 12/19/2008 10:42 AM
If I remember correctly, Gore wanted a recount only in the counties where Democrats had the majority. Bush wanted to recount the entire
state.

- ReasoNseeKer See Profile I'm a Fan of ReasoNseeKer permalink
The Supreme Court voted 7-2 in favor of Bush. Only Ginsburg and Bryer voted in favor of Gore. You can't change the rules after an
election. The Supreme Court was right.

- sunnyokanagan See Profile I'm a Fan of sunnyokanagan permalink
Steal? Counting _all_ the ballots and awarding the contest to the individual who receives the most votes. I thought that was how it was _supposed_
to work!?

- jdl51 See Profile I'm a Fan of jdl51 permalink
There are a few reasons I'd like Franken to win, not least of which is to drive Bill O'Reilly through the roof. I'll be willing to bet he'd never bring himself to say
Senator Franken, ever.

- TKDuff See Profile I'm a Fan of TKDuff permalink
I heard Bill O'Reilly is moving to Canada if Franken wins, so I hope Franken wins.

- mrbluesky_2 See Profile I'm a Fan of mrbluesky_2 permalink
We have anti-terrorism laws here as well.. i am guessing he O'Reilly won;t make it over the border... besides we're generally a friendly
bunch.. i'm sure ole bill would likely kill himself from over-exposure to our brand of civility and mutual respect. So.. on second thought.. bring
the bastige over!

- LaurenMarie984 See Profile I'm a Fan of LaurenMarie984 permalink
Sean Hannity is already pissing himself at the thought.

- Cart49 See Profile I'm a Fan of Cart49 permalink
I'll take it anyway we can. The country needs a true change not status quo. We need 60 Senators to accomplish our agenda.

- rhondarn62 See Profile I'm a Fan of rhondarn62 permalink
I'm curious what agenda are you talking about?

sure..the more to the left the Agenda the shorter the term as President Obama will spend at the wise house..
I like that take your 60 votes filbuster proof mayority....

- hollyo See Profile I'm a Fan of hollyo permalink
yes...and a few more laughs wouldn't hurt.

- arrtimus See Profile I'm a Fan of arrtimus permalink
But he's not funny

- peeweeH See Profile I'm a Fan of peeweeH permalink
What is Herron saying? That dumbocrats have a hard time filling in a circle?
I do not find that difficult to believe. When they "x" out a circle does that mean they are marking thier 'mark"?

- KayWrites See Profile I'm a Fan of KayWrites permalink
"their" not "thier." Check your spelling before you go calling others dumb.
7 of 9 12/19/2008 10:42 AM

- workinman See Profile I'm a Fan of workinman permalink
Democrats are more likely to be issued a provisional ballot rather than a regular ballot. Those are not counted except in situations like this.
Plus, there are more Democrats than Republicans. Therefore, more chance for error.
Plus, wouldn't those who don't read directions be considered noble by conservative standards?
They're so un-elite as to be able to fill out a bubble sheet (like they use on those elitist college entry tests).

Democrats in every state seem to end up with "provisional ballots" because their names are most often deleted from the registration rolls,
without merit by deception-trained Republican secretaries of state.
Ask Tim Robbins.

- Mustang_Sally See Profile I'm a Fan of Mustang_Sally permalink
It's not even worth responding to these room-temp types... They just like getting other people's dander up. Little blogging bu//ies

- skibum49 See Profile I'm a Fan of skibum49 permalink
Yeah unfortunately that is exactly what Herron is saying. The fate of a US Senatorial Election is going to be decided by people who cannot follow
simple clear directions on how to properly fill out a piece of paper. I would think that anyone who ever took a standardized test would understand
the concept of filling in the circle (oval) but at this point I will take the election of Franken anyway I can get it. It is rather sad however.

- Truthosaurus See Profile I'm a Fan of Truthosaurus permalink
That is one reason I hope we never get some kind of internet or cell phone voting scheme. Could you imagine the same people who vote for
that TV show "American Idol", having just such an easy to way vote in a presidential election? Scary thought.

- Faithtoo See Profile I'm a Fan of Faithtoo permalink
An inability to read or write well does not diminish the intelligence of the individual. It might mean that they have less formalized education
than yourself. Would having less education preclude them from voting? I think not. America is for everyone...again!

- cam See Profile I'm a Fan of cam permalink
Many of these votes are by people who have never taken a standardized test. Internationally, the standard is to draw an X within the box
demarcating the chosen delegate.

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Franken's Position Looks Surprisingly Good, New Political Study Shows http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/17/frankens-position-looks-s_n_...

December 19, 2008

Franken's Position Looks Surprisingly Good, New Political

Get Breaking News Alerts

This group is key to determining the Minnesota Senate victor.

Story continues below

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Franken Senate Victory Projected

Mama Voted for Obama

Comments Pending Comments FAQ: Comments and ModerationFAQ: HuffPost Accounts

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:23 AM on 11/21/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:42 PM on 11/20/2008

Nope, you have your facts wrong.

They finished counting a while ago.

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:11 AM on 11/21/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:33 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:20 AM on 11/21/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:32 AM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:12 AM on 11/21/2008

Oh, "Franken's pulling a Bush"?

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:20 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:36 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:46 PM on 11/19/2008

Was that even english?

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:58 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:39 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:14 AM on 11/19/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:37 AM on 11/19/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:57 PM on 11/18/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:45 PM on 11/20/2008

good for you Stalin

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 06:41 PM on 11/19/2008

There's a word I"m searching for..........oh Dissent! necessary and patriotic...right?

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:36 AM on 11/19/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:28 AM on 11/22/2008

Calling what Rush and Bill do "scrutiny" is incredibly generous.

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:14 AM on 11/21/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:01 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:17 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 01:54 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 07:57 PM on 11/18/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:56 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 08:26 PM on 11/19/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:19 PM on 11/20/2008

michael moore for senator? sounds like a good idea to me

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 09:00 AM on 11/19/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 11:27 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:42 AM on 11/19/2008

It certainly would "help us all".

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:11 PM on 11/18/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:30 PM on 11/18/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 02:23 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:24 PM on 11/20/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 12:40 AM on 11/19/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:28 PM on 11/18/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 04:19 PM on 11/18/2008

Franken gonna steal the election? Ironic.

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 03:00 PM on 11/18/2008

Get a clue. Not "stealing" and nothing ironic about it.

Close elections should be recounted. Period.

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 10:17 AM on 11/21/2008

Favorite Flag as abusive Posted 05:25 PM on 11/20/2008