WEST VIRGINIAS SHIFT FROM BLUE TO RED

Appalachian Sea Change: West Virginias Rapid Shift From Blue to Red Taylor Sappington Ohio University

WEST VIRGINIAS SHIFT FROM BLUE TO RED

While combing through news footage of election night 2012 for topics concerning Appalachia, I noticed a state that did not receive deserving coverage during the broadcasts: West Virginia. In fact, the only Appalachian states to receive mentions were Ohio and North Carolina, and that is with Ohios Appalachian bloodline mostly forgotten at the national level. Despite the overlooked hinterlands, there were some general assumptions stated without much empirical backing all night. West Virginia is an easy Romney state, Not as friendly to Democrats as before, As in 2008, both campaigns ceded the state knowing its fate long before election night. Though these talking points kept listeners entertained, not a single nuanced argument was given to reveal the true streams of political thought behind these assumptions. This research not only gives an empirical, yet balanced, argument as to West Virginias hostility to President Obama last November, but also seeks to prove that the states once reliably Democratic slant has shifted into long-term Republican loyalty. There are several assumptions in my argument that the research seek to solidly prove. 1) West Virginia was once reliably Democratic 2) This changed. Specifically, that voters shifted to the Grand Old Party (GOP) This essay will also explore why this situation came about. For a student of the 21st century sitting at his pricey laptop in an air controlled room, it may be difficult to truly appreciate the Appalachian living conditions of 1932. With the economy in free-fall, the mining sector previously depressed before the Depression, and joblessness the new norm, the country and cozy state of West Virginia (WV) were battered into economic despair. From this morass, came a Democratic candidate who promised responsive government to alleviate unemployment and poverty. For West Virginians, the historical break and He cares for us appeal of Franklin Roosevelt did not fall on deaf ears. Following other states who fell

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hardest during the Depression or generally possessed deep and withstanding poverty, West Virginians switched from Republican to Democratic and did so in huge numbers. In what would shake the earth in a contemporary election, Democrats won 57% of the vote nationwide and 54% in WV.1 The next 17 elections can only be assessed as dominance. After 1928, Republicans would see only 3 instances where they won the popular vote in WV, at one point ceding 68% percent of the vote to Democrats. For those preferring tidy majorities before pronouncing a winner, WV Dems won 82% of the elections from 1932-1996. These numbers mean nothing else than this: Democrats easily held West Virginia and did so for a long period of time. For a modern politico lacking a background in history, this may come as a surprise. Before discussing the change from DNC (Democratic National Committee) to GOP, its important to ponder why the state became so blue. Knowing the context can help guide the thought process when later asking What changed? The Appalachian mountains of 1932 were still within the realm of King Coal, with WV reaching peak coal employment from 1932-1948. Though the turmoil of the extraction industrys fickle preferences had long begun to wreck its havoc, the quantifiable number of families affected by mining had never been higher in West Virginia: 130,000.2 Widespread and sometimes militant labor disputes coupled with terrible working conditions and low pay planted coal companies firmly in the antagonistic role for many families. With the state government often uneasy to step in, the federal government often (but certainly not always) attempted a resolution for all sides. As our Appalachian Handbook revealed, the citizens of the state had a certain acceptance of and desire to see federal action to better their position in the workplace and society. The New Deals firm alliance with the toiling masses made the program incredibly

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popular in the mountains and FDR would repay their political loyalty and needs with widespread Appalachian jobs and assistance programs. The perceptual context in which West Virginias saw the role of government (and the Democrats willingness to support that role) combined with labors democratic ties, and possibly a hint of southern Dixiecrat racism, allowed for the Dems to reach far into the mountains. All of this so far has been to prove a change in voting tendencies, particularly from blue to red. After a review of the data below, there should be little doubt.3 With the exception of President Eisenhower, democrats won consistently. To further prove the shift in voting trends, the second chart below reveals the net margin in which West Virginia voted toward or against Democrats. The data shows that WV Democrats almost always beat the national Democratic average, even surviving the Reagan Revolution. In the last ten years however, WV voters shifted in historic numbers against Democrats.4

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The change quantifiably began in in 1996 with the re-election of President William Clinton as his winning percentage rose dramatically, but his margin of victory in WV declined. The net margin against the national Democratic average held toward the GOP at 3% again in 2000, shifted to 5% in 2004, 11% in 2008, and 16% in 2012. These numbers defied historical trends as well as President Obamas landslide victory in 2008. As if ignoring national fluctuations, WV voted Republican in increasing numbers. Even if numbers were to swing back toward the Democrats it would likely take years to recover, making this a trend even in a conservative estimate. So what caused this change? Though the data is sparse, there are many anecdotal theories and some other more solid theories of demographic and cultural change. Some general opinions posit that Ross Perot dislodged many of the loyal conservative Democrat from the blue coalition, although it seems to ignore Reagans identical accomplishment. President Bushs introduction of compassionate conservatism could have appealed to WV voters who were conservative but believed in benevolent government, but this forgets that the change began 4 years before Bush even ran for President.

WEST VIRGINIAS SHIFT FROM BLUE TO RED

Other anecdotal arguments suggest that declining unionization has hurt Democratic infrastructure in the state and that could explain the Democratic collapse. Though unionization has generally declined and so has their political power, there is no causation between long term vote totals of either political party and unionization. They undoubtedly provide a vital resource to many local and state campaigns, but their support is not a requirement for national victory. Consider President Bush beating Labors candidate in 2004 or Democrats winning the largest victory in a generation in 2008 despite plummeting unionization numbers. At risk of missing the forest for the trees, some commentators argue that WV skepticism on gun laws, climate change, and the laws responding to climate change have alienated voters away from the new progressive revival within the peoples party. Though this could conceivably be true for a subset of voters, it is unlikely that an entire state has undergone a voting about face over one or two issues. One or both of the following foundational theories are much more likely: That a cultural or demographic change has happened at the state level or WV is a symptom of a similar national adjustment. The data available cannot prove one of these to be true beyond reasonable doubt. However, it can whittle down what factors are causing the change. Afterwards, we can have a general picture of what has changed and why. First, when pouring over exit poll numbers, West Virginia has notable differences in comparison to its neighbors polls. Despite party registration standing firmly against the Republicans, Democrats continue to lose as much as 31% of their rank and file who are voting the other direction.5 Compare this to 11% in Ohio in the same category, effectively negating party registration as an important factor in this research, unless it were to focus on lack of party loyalty (which it isnt). Many other factors discussed in the previously mentioned election night coverage can also be eliminated as valid factors: racism, ideology, disproportionate male voting,

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issue voting, income, and education level. Although there are statistical differences in all the directions one might expect (higher voting based on race, lower income levels, fewer liberals and educated voters, and higher single issue voters), the differences were usually within 2-3%, close to the margin of error and too small to statistically account for the change in statewide voting. The numbers that could account for the change are the following: diversity in WVs voting bloc, a very large percent of rural voters, and Democrats and Republicans appeal to white voters. Diversity within West Virginias voters is almost nonexistent. At 94% of the electorate, white voters make up an incredibly large portion of voters when compared to 83% at the mostly white state of Ohio.6 Compare both to the Democratic bastion of California which has 63% of white voters in the same exit poll. On top of the white vote, 52% of WV is Evangelical/Born-Again, a group hostile to Democrats since their rise to political prominence, whereas the same category stands at 30% in Ohio. Rural voters make up 54% in WV and 20% in Ohio. These statistical difference should not be ignored. With no discernible differences in the voting preferences of these otherwise hugely varying demographic groups between states, one trend stands out from the rest: the change in voter preferences of white voters. The data below, cited at the bottom of each chart, show two major changes over the last 30 years. First, that the percentage of Democratic voters who are white has declined from 79% to 56%, while the share of white voters nationwide has decreased 15%.7 Consider that the share of white voters in West Virginia has not decreased by any amount.

WEST VIRGINIAS SHIFT FROM BLUE TO RED

WEST VIRGINIAS SHIFT FROM BLUE TO RED

Just considering this mathematically, West Virginia is likely caught in between a demographic squeeze nationwide. The Democrats are appealing more to non-whites, and much less to whites than before. They maintain national viability as white voters make up a smaller share of the vote and non-whites increase their portion. But WV is not seeing this demographic change as its almost exclusively white voters turnoff to Democrats with few non-whites to make up the difference. The changes even began in 1996 as the changes in net vote margins adjusted in previous paragraphs. With recent GOP victories in the mountain state beating all historical trends, only a shift that outshines all historical trends is likely to explain the situation. In this case, I firmly believe that the national voting bloc changes between the two parties have caused the large-scale adjustments in West Virginias voting loyalty. In closing, the data of this research intended to and clearly shows three major items. First, that West Virginia used to be a reliably Democratic state and even used to beat national Democratic voting averages. This all began to change however, and West Virginia began to vote marginally more for Republicans than the national average. Within the last 16 years the state has become reliably and consistently Republican and this change has likely been brought about by a drop in white support for Democrats and a lack of diversity within West Virginia to replace the

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bleeding white votes. Based on these conclusions, it seems that the state is a product of larger political trends and will likely continue to vote Republican for many years to come.

WEST VIRGINIAS SHIFT FROM BLUE TO RED Sources Used

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Leip, Dave. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections." Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 Apr. 2013. "September 2009 Appalachian Voices." Appalachian Voices RSS. Appalachian Voices, n.d. Web. 11 Apr. 2013. "Election Archives." Welcome to Secretary of State Natalie Tennant's Website. West Virginia Secretary of State, n.d. Web. 13 Apr. 2013. "Election Archives." Welcome to Secretary of State Natalie Tennant's Website. West Virginia Secretary of State, n.d. Web. 13 Apr. 2013. "CNN 2008 Exit Poll-West Virginia" CNN. Cable News Network, 04 Nov. 2008. Web. 14 Apr. 2013. "CNN 2008 Exit Poll-Ohio" CNN. Cable News Network, 04 Nov. 2008. Web. 14 Apr. 2013. "Changing Demographics: Declining White Vote Share." The Atlas Project . N.p., n.d. Web. 17 Apr. 2013.

Silver, Nate. "In West Virginia, Coal Means More, Party Less." FiveThirtyEight In West Virginia Coal Means More Party Less Comments. New York Times, 3 July 2012. Web. 17 Apr. 2013. Edwards, Grace Toney., JoAnn Aust. Asbury, and Ricky L. Cox. A Handbook to Appalachia: An Introduction to the Region. Knoxville: University of Tennessee, 2006. Print. Judis, John B., and Ruy A. Teixeira. The Emerging Democratic Majority. New York: Scribner, 2002. Print.

In-Text Citations

1 Leip, Dave. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections." Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. N.p., n.d. Web. 12 Apr. 2013. 2 "September 2009 Appalachian Voices." Appalachian Voices RSS. Appalachian Voices, n.d. Web. 11 Apr. 2013. 3 "Election Archives." Welcome to Secretary of State Natalie Tennant's Website. West Virginia Secretary of State, n.d. Web. 13 Apr. 2013. 4 "Election Archives." Welcome to Secretary of State Natalie Tennant's Website. West Virginia Secretary of State, n.d. Web. 13 Apr. 2013. 5 "CNN 2008 Exit Poll-West Virginia" CNN. Cable News Network, 04 Nov. 2008. Web. 14 Apr. 2013. 6 "CNN 2008 Exit Poll-Ohio" CNN. Cable News Network, 04 Nov. 2008. Web. 14 Apr. 2013. 7 "Changing Demographics: Declining White Vote Share." The Atlas Project . N.p., n.d. Web. 17 Apr. 2013.