Social Science History Association

The Welfare State as Transnational Event: Evidence from Sequences of Policy Adoption Author(s): Andrew Abbott and Stanley DeViney Source: Social Science History, Vol. 16, No. 2 (Summer, 1992), pp. 245-274 Published by: Duke University Press on behalf of the Social Science History Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1171289 . Accessed: 01/05/2013 19:16
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Stateas Transnational TheWelfare from Evidence Event: Sequences ofPolicyAdoption

ANDREW ABBOTT & STANLEY DEVINEY

OF THE WELFARE STATE have about longspeculated thesequencein which welfare were Worker's programs adopted. for has generally beenadopted early by example, compensation, thevarious whilefamily allowances havecome later. countries, The orderof theseprograms is important bothforits inherent on of andfor-its theories the welfare state. interest bearing the absence ofstudies Giventhis relative empirical importance, of the orderof program seem There adoption may surprising. are a fewsuchstudies Collier and Messick 1965; 1975; (Cutright Schneider1982). But some derivethe sequencefromcrossofprograms data(Cutright others treat sectional 1965),while types To andMessick our as interchangeable (Collier 1975). knowledge, ofadoption. areno studies there directly sequences comparing of differences in In thisarticle we perform a direct analysis discussion of welfare Our sequences. opening conceptual adoption levelsof analysis forwelfare issuesoutlines three and theoretical forsedata sourcesand a method We thenconsider adoption. STUDENTS

ofChicago.His subof sociology at theUniversity is professor Andrew Abbott research concerns and work.His methodological stantive research occupations andtemporal concerns sequence modeling. ofKansas. ofsociology at theUniversity Stanley DeVineyis assistant professor of welfare His research has focused on thedeterminants policiesin advanced countries. industrial 16:2 (Summer Social ScienceHistory 1992). Copyright I1992 by theSocial ScienceHistory Association. ccc oI45-5532/92/$I.50.

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246

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After thiscome sections quencecomparison, matching. optimal of The first takesthe each level analysis. examining separately in which individual countries are cases and traditional approach, between countries. reflect internal differences sequences adoption diffusion affects The second considers thepossibility that adoption The third examines the that theory adoption sequences sequences. of higher-level, within countries are in factrandom expressions The conclusion drawsmajorthemes worldwide events. together for future research. andindicates directions to social of sequencedata is unfamiliar Since direct analysis a certain amount it will be necessary to introduce scientists, of technical material. Indeed,thewholeconceptual approachand comparing them-mayseem untaking sequencesas units results our familiar. we feelthat theempirical Nonetheless, justify in to terms turn and methodologies thinking sequence developing those into thoughts practice.' empirical
CONCEPTUAL ISSUES

In standard is theestablishthefirst taskofan analysis methods, ment of a conceptual model.Methods sequencedata analyzing Abbott we are no different. (1984), beginwitha disFollowing cussion the level of then the consider establishing proper analysis, events and their and character, substantively important temporal thetheoretical finally sequence specify expected. To whomdo theevents-welfare program adoptions-really events occur?Thereare three First, mayoccurto possibilities. of indiindividual countries. ourdataconsist On thisargument, histories of welfare statedevelopment. Our vidual,independent causalproblem is todiscover the characteristics that detercountry of adoption. Butthisindividual levelof analysis minetheorder is obviously Messick and (Collier problematic I975). Sinceprowe cannot that internal can diffuse, assume heterogeneity, grams is generating thepattern. There rather thanintercase contagion, levelof analysis (local variables maybe bothan individual may stillbe important) and a group level(for Andthere is diffusion). thefurther that possibility onlythegrouplevelis real. On this internal characteristics makelittle and difdifference, argument, ifitoccurs, is idiosyncratic rather than fusion, systematic. Among certain there and countries, mayhavebeen so muchexchange

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TheWelfare State as Transnational Event 247

towelfare diffused with that programs modeling programs respect The issue of at random. this article major essentially empirical is in to which of these three levels fact one. be the proves proper is notmerely a methodological issuebutalso a Level of analysis one (cf.Watkins substantive 1987). is Abbott's (1984) secondtaskforsequence conceptualization of theevents themselves. The events of interest thespecification from welfare statestudies.The literature has here are familiar considered fivebasic welfare worker's traditionally programs: sickness andmaternity benefits; invalidity, old-age, compensation; and deathsupports; inand unemployment allowances; family These five the surance. areas provide majorguarantees program ofa welfare for state. thevastmajority of Theyaccount expected social within the current And their public expenditures sample. been used as an indicator of presenceand age has previously welfare statedevelopment The 1965; 1975). (Cutright Wilensky limitations ofthisspecification be noted. We do should, however, notinclude current andindirect taxsubsidies education, housing, 1988:n. 7), a point (Wilensky 1975;cf. Pampeland Williamson towhich we return in closing. Forthepurposes ofthis we article, assume that eachprogram is "indicated" lawembodybythefirst is theonly accessible datefor the ingit,sincethis readily ordering events .2 and a listof events, Givena levelof analysis we must finally ofthesequence In a classicarticle, consider itself. theorder Cutcross-sectional for countries in data 76 (1965) 1961 right inspected and found them to lie in a Guttman scale: (I) workmen's comsickness and benefits (2) (health insurance), maternity pensation, anddeathsupports (4) family (3) old-age,invalidity, (pensions), and(5) unemployment insurance. that allowances, Cutright argued in that order. thisshowed that thepolicieswerenormally adopted The actual otherwise. Thequestion remains dates, however, prove theorder was,andwhy. openas towhat on thewelfare state a variety Theoretical produce perspectives is Under themodernization of expectations. theory, development from theindustrial a general structural change arising production andneedsfor a state ofthemeans,wealth, organization (Cutright variModernization 1965;Wilensky 1975;FloraandAlber I98I). on welfare economic include ablesbearing development programs bothneedandcapacity), age ofpopulation (indicating (indicating

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248

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ofoverall bureaucratization need),anddegree (indicating mainly universal Modernization assumes a capacity). relatively process ofadoption invarious counandhencepredicts similar sequences tries. thestages all latestarters faster, mayrun Although through areexpected a universal to follow setofstages. sees thewelfare stateas a thedemand approach By contrast, to demands Shalev 1983; 1983; working-class (Myles response HicksandSwank redistribute income 1984).Theprograms among insofar as classdifferences are social classesandwillbe stronger consolidated and articulated. theimportant variables Therefore, are the elective of theworking class and its derepresentation nonelectoral greeof formal organization, although participation for also be the riots, may Although (through important. example) would that demand working-class participation approach predicts those theworking hasten most class, directly benefiting programs it is notnecessarily clearwhich are likely to be. theseprograms immediate benefits One might that likeworker's tentatively predict andunemployment insurance wouldprecede compensation longterm oneslikepensions. A final, state-centered theory emphasizes political organization on thegrounds class andhistory that and variables developmental exercise their effect the state itself onlythrough (DeViney1983; and Carruthers 1988). The 1986; Amenta Skocpol and Amenta variables in thisapproach arethedevelopment, central organizaof thestate.Although there areno particular tion,and authority with the is that countries aboutsequence, presumption predictions inthe willhavecomparable evolution states sequences comparable welfare oftheir states. individual units Whilethese three theories assume independent, of analysis,our secondlevel of analysismixesthe individual and grouplevels. First,a diffusion assumesthatcontatheory incomparable countries "close" toothers adopt gionplaysa part; or sequence.Closenessmaymeanactualgeographic proximity or closenessin interaction, trade, through generalresemblance or capitalflows. cultural Whilesuch an approach interchange, believesthat diffusion modifies an individual-level process,one also theorize thatindividual a might modify parameters might individual characteristics determine group-level process.Perhaps on thelistofall adopters where ofparticular programs particular tendto fall;somemaybe leaders, countries others followers. We the"reaction" shallcall this model.3

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as Transnational TheWelfare State Event 249

levelofanalysis treats thewelfare state as something Ourthird but nottoindividual countries tosomelarger that group happened world as the nonsocialist as a whole.(We arehere using developed thedeveloped world madeup a cultural that unit.)4 larger Perhaps ofthestate inwhich ingeneral andofitswelimages community in particular fareprograms werebasically common an property, madebyJohn andhis students (see, e.g., BoliMeyer argument Bennett and Meyer and Boli 1978;Thomaset al. 1987;Ramirez see Thomasand Lauderdale 1987; on welfare 1987). programs, themoreeconomic World-level also stemfrom might processes oftheworld-system forces theorists. On these a given arguments, wouldfirst be setforth inan abstract rather than a practiprogram Thena fewearly cal form. countries might adoptit,whileothers thenothers wouldeventually takeit up. The program watched; individual countries wouldthenbasicallyresequenceswithin on thetemporal flect random "curve"ofeachprogram. sampling Notethat thethree substantive theories earlier-modconsidered and state "shadow" ernization, demand, strength-also produce on thislevel. Modernization, forexample, hypotheses mayentail rivalries a group-level and emulation that produce process. theinternational connections ofsocialism before Andcertainly the First World Warprovide a sound basisfor a similar hypothesizing world-level under thedemand theory. process
DATA

The data forthis studycome from Social Security Programs the a standard sourcepublished 1981, throughout World, by the Administration consist of the U.S. Social Security (1982). They in lawembodying eachofthefive dateofthefirst programs, each of I8 developed countries.5 The countries are arranged FigureI showsthedata visually. the the date of their first from to bottom right-left by program; top in eachcountry thedateof dimension is time.Foreach program these arethen connected is marked bya point; (by points adoption The seems but verticals. the by jagged program) picture complex, In all but two are at once clear. certain cases, underlying patterns worker's and family insurance, compensation, unemployment In New Zealandand Australia, order. the allowances fallin that amount and three rea small lasttwoarereversed (four by years, is the first program adopted Compensation generally spectively).

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250

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23145

GERMANY AUSTRIA DENMARK SWEDEN FINLAND NORWAY

0.... :

:: .

32145 12345 23145 D '.......---34215 -34152 ----

BELGIUM
UNITED KINGDOM
FRANCE ITALY NEWZEALAND LUXEMBOURG NETHERLANDS AUSTRALIA CANADA ICELAND JAPAN SWITZERLAND I , 1880 ---

-_,.-*

23415
312/45
34125 321/45 13542 23145

o:: f-. 03152/4 : . .." eI 1920 COMP(3)

I

31/245 31452 132/45 -...... ....o I 1940 --32145 D

l

er
I, Il,

3/2415 I 1960 UNEMP(4)

I

1900 HEALTH(2) --

1980 FAMILY(5)

...... AGE(1)

offive offirst welfare Figure adoption I Dates programs withthis and family allowances thelast. By contrast generally health show much disorder. insurance andold-age order, pensions of but wasa central the welfare states Health insurance early pillar colonies. Pensions seemsparticularly late in theformer English wander without anyapparent pattern. simply inprogram As we noted variations earlier, adoption mayreflect of local variables. a variety An important preliminary problem concerns whenthese tobe measured. We areconvariables ought of welfare the development statesas whole histories, sidering from to in sucha Since variables fluctuate 70 Ioo years. taking we must decide of their values should be as which taken period, the welfare sequence. determining adoption The standard is thatvariable fluctuations determine position thehistory enter an repeatedly, say yearby year.The variables iterative model"that annual results, which, "generating produces inretrospect, taken constitute thewelfare One sequence. adoption have an unchanging could, however, arguethatthesecountries "basic character"; the variables'fluctuations are random drift a fundamental either around valueoraround a fundamental ratio

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TheWelfare State as Transnational Event 251

one might believe to thevaluesof other countries. Alternatively, conthat thebasicparameters ofthewelfare state aresetbyinitial whenthefirst are considered and Here ditions programs adopted. fluctuations would be unimportant. Thesethree again,subsequent basic initial and conditions character, (thegenerative, positions in involve a the debate of exmodels) complex philosophy history, well the bounds of the article Abbott (see tending beyond present fora discussion). In practice, thefirst involves position 1990ob both for difficulties the methods used here greatmethodological and forstandard methods. We thusconsider the latter two: only thebasic character the use of recent and model,which permits hencevery and initial conditions the which data, model, complete theuse ofquiteold andhencelesscomplete data.6 requires from Ourcurrent a variety ofsources data,drawn (see TableI), include standard variables all three substantive theorepresenting ries:(I) modernization of labor in force (percentage agriculture, overall of index);(2) Leftpolitical development strength (degree labororganization, labororganization centralization, percentage of socialist seatsin parliament, of leftist members of percentage structural and cabinet, [Schmitter], index); (3) govcorporativism ernment as a percentage of strength (government expenditures revenues as a percentage of GDP). GDP,government Data pertaining to theeraofthefirst welfare arevery program effective statedevelopment meascarce,and we could notfind sures.Formodernization we drew laborforce theories, figuresforindustrial, andservice thehis(residual)-from agricultural, in torical the of Nations' International Statistical figures League Leftdemand is measured toricalStatistics. by data on socialist MackieandRose 1983,anddirect demand votesand seatsfrom on the of the statistics (forage-related by programs) proportion
theStatistical Yearbook. populationover65 and under14 from
SEQUENCES AS DEPENDENT VARIABLES

B. R. Mitchell's(1978) EuropeanHisYearbookof 1929 and from

considered theindependent variables that welHaving mayaffect tomaking fare wenowturn information about sequences, adoption variables. We employ adoption sequencesintoviabledependent a method that usesdynamic optimal matching, programming algomeasure twosequences. rithms to minimize a distance between

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252

SOCIAL

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TableI

ofvariables Correlations with dimensions scaling SourceMean 11.37 9.49

33.21

Variables era Adoption Votes Seats

% < 14

S.D. 10.56 II.I8

2.51

x .084
.205

y -.289 -.397 .274 .428 .133

.233
.260

.033

% > 65 % < 14 or > 65 laborforce % industrial laborforce % agricultural labor % service (other) force

6.37

1.61

28.31 42.I4 29.52

12.73 17.18 9.02

.319 -.002

.187 .164

-.309

-.633

Current in % oflaborforce TJ 17-35 8.37 agriculture Overall development index B 1.48 0.22 of labor Degree TJ 0.98 3.o8 organization Labororganization DL centralization 2.44 5.64 seatsin % of socialist MR 32.I 13.87 parliament members in % ofleftist MR 44-52 36.98 cabinet Corporativism SL 2.o6 (Schmitter) 0.73 Structural LG 6.28 index 1.47 Government expenditures revenues Government
% of GDP

.299

-.197 .20I .216 .197 .406 .378

.221
.I27

-.076 - .025 .003

-.022

- .092
-.029

.483

.356

TJ

24.24

4.67

-.416

andGarrett andLehmbruch 1983;MR= MackieandRose 1983;SL = Schmitter andJodice 1983. 1982; TJ= Taylor x = later Note:Positive health insurance. y = earlier pensions; positive

TJ % of GDP 29.84 4.74 .050 -.544 Sources: B = Banks I98I; DL = U.S. Department of Labor 1965; LG = Lange

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TheWelfare Stateas Transnational Event 253

The matrix all theadoption is then ofdistances between sequences usedfor further analysis. As a first thesequenceinformation itself. step,we formalize a Therearefive be At to time, adopted. any given policies country has an "adoption which ofthefive it describing profile" programs has adopted. to Thereare32 possible the fifth (2 profiles power), butsinceno country is observed itsfirst before we use program, 1. list for We can the each at intervals only3 profile country regular sinceitsfirst ofa welfare Thislistis itswelfare program. adoption adoption sequence. Forexample, France itsfirst benefits in 19Io, acquired old-age its maternity and sickness in workmen's comprogram 1928, in in insurance and 1898, 1905, pensation unemployment family allowances in 1932.Itsprofile wasthus alone"for "compensation + unemmostofthefirst decadeafter 1898,then "compensation + old for most of the and second all of thethird age" ployment decades (1908-28), then"all programs" formostof thefourth and all subsequent decadesto the1980s.Unlike thesimple order listed onthe sideofFigure such sequences right-hand sequences I, inrealtime.7 exist Two examplesfollow. Each W indicates a decade of welfare stateexperience. It is followed the by an arbitrary digit labeling in dominant that means W31 that all decade. profile policy policies arepresent. Australia W4 W5 W5 W5 W31 W31 W31 W31 Finland W4 W4 W12 W12 W13 W29 W29 W31 W31 Thedistance between suchsequences consists, (ordissimilarity) ofreplacements, ofthenumber and insertions, roughly speaking, deletions togetfrom onesequence toanother.8 Thus,one required turns theAustralia W4 one byadding sequenceintotheFinland at thebeginning, three W5s intotwoW12s and a W13, turning and turning twoW31s intoW29s. Not all of thesechanges are + oldThe profile "workmen's compensation equally"costly." withtheprofile one of its elements (W5) shares age supports" + unemployment insurance" "workmen's (W12), compensation in twooutof and so we might mismatched saythetwoprofiles, are o.66 different. a total(in both)of three Alternaproperties, noticethat theprofiles bothlack thetwoother we might tively, of healthinsurance and family allowances. Including programs

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254

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thesewould make the mismatches two out of five(insteadof twoout of three), fora distance of 0.4. We havehereused this rather thefirst than bemeasure, measure, (Jaccard) "matching" in causewe feelthat absence ofprograms should as weigh heavily resemblance as presence also does.Optimal determining matching that we setcostsof insertion and deletion. requires Customarily, theseare set to a value slightly than thelargest substituhigher tioncost,a procedure durational differences. Since emphasizing we consider we duration less important relative to actualpattern, havelowered theinsertion/deletion themaximum costtoone-half substitution cost. we Giventhesecostsof insertion, and substitution, deletion, Standard proceedto theoptimal-matching algorithms stepitself. havebeenusedtoproduce a matrix ofdistances between thewelfare It is this ofresemblance we try matrix that policysequences. with toexplain this variables. (Forease ofreference, independent willbe calledthe"adoption matrix matrix" hereafter.) sequence
THE HYPOTHESIS OF INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL EFFECTS

In theopening discussion we suggested three possiblelevelsof of thesedata.The first was internal in coundifferences analysis tries. ofindepenThereareseveral theeffects waystoinvestigate dent variables onresemblance datasuchas wehaveinouradoption We havechosento scale theresemblance data sequencematrix. ofindividual andtreat theresulting coordinates cases as variables for andWish1983).Thescaling ofthe (Kruskal regression analysis intwodimensions matrix stress=. 18) (Kruskal adoption sequence is shown in Figure 2. It is clearbyinspection that onedimension to upper concerns insurance theplace ofhealth (lowerleft right) in the sequence,whilean orthogonal one (lower to upper right that ofold-age assistance. Thetwo-dimensional concerns left) patwas so clearthat we simply rotated thescalings with a sine/ tern cosinetransformation so that theorthogonal health and pension dimensions coincided with themainaxes.We then treated cases' coordinates as dependent variables. Table I presents thecorrelationsof the independent variables-boththecurrent and the ones-withthetwodimensions ofthis initial-adoption-era space.9 is surprisingly there little measures, Amongtheadoption-era relation between thevariables and thescalingdimensions. The

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Event 255 TheWelfare State as Transnational

variousdependency measures (young people,old people,both) correlate with the dimension in and, moreover, weakly pension the unexpected in the direction. (The reasonforthisis evident there is too little in thedependency standard deviations: variance thesequence As to account for differences variables observed.)10 for thehealth theservice variable hasa powerful dimension, negait (as service tiverelation with health insurance rises, proportion comes relatively of Leftstrength are also late). And measures somewhat related to this while the overall dimension, negatively ratio A health insurance earlier. regression dependency pushes modelpredicting thehealth from service dimension proportion, seatsinparliament, socialist anda constant has an adjusted R2 of forsocialist seats.Interaction effects andother variables add little to thisexplained variance.In particular, thedependency ratio, its lowers the variation correlation, despite fairly strong explained On thex dimension, showsno considerably. regression analysis substantial effects the variables. among adoption-era ofthecurrent-era Liketheadoption-era few variables variables, are strongly related to thescalingdimensions. The correlations between thevariables andtherawdatesofwelfare (not programs thesecorrelations are often shown)tellwhythisis so; although in thesamedirection are usually forall programs. strong, they The variables shift thewholepattern butdo notaffect theorder and duration of succession. of overallshift (This pattern gives with itspredictions somesupport tomodernization ofunitheory, form andhasbeendiscussed theorists bystate-centered sequence, as well [Orloff and Skocpol 1984].) The correlations presented showthat thestrongest involves relationship pensions: government shift themearlier; makesthemlater.A revenues corporativism model the dimension from (current) predicting pension regression R revenues and has an government corporativism adjusted 2 of .38, concluThisindividual-level leavesus with perplexing analysis the underscore fact sions.Optimal-matching (evident techniques in thesequences from mostvariation of adoption FigureI) that is in theordering and duration of health insurance and old-age ofthis variabe noted that thevery existence (It should pensions. tionseriously of damagesthemodernization theory's prediction a uniform correlation norregression produces sequence.)Neither
withcoefficients of -5.2 and 28.5, respectively. .51 and coefficients (p < .05) of -3.64 forservice and - 1.87

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ICE NEZ

DEN

GFR

SWE LUX FRA UKI NET ITA BEL

AUS

AUL

CAN

NOR SWI

FIN

2 Scaling welfare ofdistances between Figure sequences

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Event 257 as Transnational TheWelfare State

for thedevelforanyofthestandard explanations strong support this With the of welfare states. variables, contemporary opment in topushalladoption dates inpart a tendency for variables reflects But more as modernization a particular direction, predicts. theory weakor surprising reflects thelack of support simply generally, revenues should Thatrising government pushpenrelationships. sionsearlier seem to the state-centered (cf. might support theory is no account of whythemoney shouldmove ibid.), butthere in thesequence Nordoes thedethat rather than others. program mandtheory numbers of socialist seatsshould explain why rising No theory movehealth insurance later. that nations with predicts will more health service sectors be late of larger likely adopters ofa service insurance. sector Indeed,ifwe takethedevelopment this reverses to be an indicator of economic result development, thestate-centered Butneither northeLeftmodernization theory. modelpredicts a link service sector andprogram demand between demand either. It should be vis-a-vis noted, too, models, adaption, theobviousprediction that ratios and that highdependency aged wouldproduce earlier fails.II populations pensions that theproblem liesintheassumption countries areinPerhaps In countries decisions with make fact, adopters. dependent partly to the examples-good and bad-provided by other reference we must consider countries. Thismeans that diffusion the models, classofmodels discussed above. secondgeneral
DIFFUSION OF WELFARE PROGRAMS

thatare close to one models assumethatcountries Diffusion Forexample, another to havesimilar ought adoption sequences. British insurance comeslateintheformer colonies national health as in factin theUnited (Canada, New Zealand, and Australia, The explanation States,to whichit has never arrived). probably ofthe medical which are liesinthesimilarity involved, professions thequasi-civil-servant and autonomous effective bodies,unlike and andwhich were oftheContinent, medical willing professions Thissimilarity in prohealth insurance.12 able to opposenational that ofcolonialism. reflects direct fessions "closeness," The first of suchcloseness. Thereare twokindsof measures of of exchange, either material are direct measures (transactions ofpeople,books,ideas). (migration capitalor goods) orcultural

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258

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The secondare indirect ofthose measures resemblances facilitatAs with theindividual-level datadiscussed ingdirect exchange. there as to whento measure are difficult these earlier, questions constraints aresevere. data,andavailability Thesearecurrent Ourfirst measure is a direct flows. one,trade data (1986) taken from theWorld Almanac (1988). The connectwo countries is theabsolutesum of tradeflows tionbetween in each direction is indirect, between them. Oursecondmeasure This composite of common and religion. thepresence language ofthetwocountries indexincludes languages I.o iftheprincipal of one is theprincipal are identical, 0.3 ifa secondary language areidenofanother, and0.2 iftwosecondary languages language is basedon a three-way tical. Its religious typology: component Thereligious contribution andhalf-and-half. Catholic, Protestant, is I.o iftwocountries havesimilar and totheindex religious types to anysplit-religion anymonoreligion country country. 0.3 from to all "other"withunitdistance Japanis of courseconsidered others. of of diffusion is againindirect, a measure Our third measure to 33 ILO recomsimilar laborpolicies.It is based on reaction inShotwell arefive as reported mendations, 1934.There ordinally scaledresponses to specific and four ordiILOrecommendations tothose These scaledlegalactions related recommendations. nally intothree The first distance measures. data wereturned separate usesall theinformation usesonly thelegal (66 scales),thesecond data(33 scales),andthethird thefirst action simplifies (avoiding 66 scales). somepossibly dangerous coding assumptions; The ILO measure is midway of between an indirect measure diffusion and a simpleresemblance On theone hand, measure. common ILOpractice interaction at ILOmeetmayreflect specific be tapping a hand,themeasure ings.On theother maysimply labor Ourlastclosetothink about similarly questions. propensity ness measure is a pureresemblance bornof ourneed measure, to developsomeestimate of adoption-era diffusion. We tookthe oftheinitial-adoption-era sevenvariables dataandreplaced them with scores. standardized Wethen this matrix (making transposed thevariables intocases and thecountries into"variables")and created correlations thecountries. We then useda simple among linear transformation to turn theresulting correlation matrix into a distance matrix of the same form and scale as the adoption matrix.13 sequence

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TheWelfare State as Transnational Event 259

is similar. for Ourbasicprocedure eachofthese measures After ofcloseness, wethen the measures eachclosecompare developing If thetwomatrices nessmatrix to theadoption matrix. sequence is likely. are themselves This approach to alike,thencontagion in thespatial diffusion has beenextensively autocorinvestigated relation andGolledge1982;Hubert literature et al. (e.g., Hubert hasdeveloped both Monte Carloanddirect methods 1981),which forsuchmatrix In both,thesumof crossproducts comparison. of equivalent elements is calculated; matrix its meanand variancearethen either Carlopermutation ofthe estimated, byMonte or bydirect If thez valueof theunpermuted matrix calculation. sumis significantly from different thematrio, then cross-product ces are shown to be similar. Hubert andGolledge (1982) suggest bothmatrices to calculations. We report here normalizing prior both Monte Carlo(I,ooo permutations) anddirect meth(gamma) both versions nonnormalized andnormalized ofeach,a ods, with totalof four teststatistics on each possiblemeasure of diffusion is a dissimilarity (Table 2). Since theadoption sequencematrix matrix whileall thediffusion butthelastare similarity measures resemblance between thetwo,in all butthelastcase, matrices, wouldproduce z scores. rather than negative positive for is present. Little evidence diffusion Thelarge z scores under thenonnormalized for theILOscalesareinthe gamma procedure that laborpolicy resemblance direction, wrong indicating maybe related to welfare The onlysignifiresemblance. inversely policy cantscoresin theright direction are thelanguage/religion scale thenormalized under andtheadoption-era gamma procedure generalresemblance under thenonnormalized measure gamma.The former of thesemaybe substantively as Forrest and meaningful, Abbott thenormalized is probably that (1990) haveargued gamma themoststableof thefour Common cultural backprocedures. related to welfare exchange ground mayinfluence policies. By theadoption-era result is probably sincethe contrast, artifactual, from involved different results theother three method produces as we areable methods acrossall thedatasetsusedhere.Insofar is rather for there weaksupport thehypothesis tomeasure it,then, ofdiffusion.

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Table2 Z-scores diffusion measuring Method Normalization Trade PermutationNonnormalized -.679 PermutationNormalized -.667 Gamma Nonnormalized .776 Gamma Normalized -i.57

I Religion ILO
-1I.ol

IL02

-.962 1.40 -2.57

7.23 .172

.539 .550

.1 .0 6.0 -.16

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TheWelfare as Transnational Event 261 State

for rates Table data 3 Descriptive program adoption PensionsHealth Compensation Family Unemployment
Meanyear S.D. 1916 16.4 1916
23.8

1901 9-3

1924 12.8

1945
I0.2

THE HYPOTHESIS

OF A WORLD-HISTORICAL PROCESS

Thereremains that of welfare thethird adoption propossibility is world-historical On each a view, grams essentially process. this welfare derives from an idea that has emerged program throughout thedeveloped world.First, a fewcountries it out,then try a mass of countries take stragglers perhaps adoptit,then finally it up. Differences countries between ariseeither (the randomly someas yetunmeasured view)orthrough world-polity parameter a country's relation to thisworld-historical (the deciding process reaction view). At first fortheseapglance,thedata seem quiteauspicious of The means is clear at all butone (Table3). proaches sequence of the tie and health. There are two point: pensions possiblereasonsfor this order. Either the has sameorder, strong every country times and overall duration or countries all although starting vary, follow thesameorder at thesametime. Thevarying datesoffirst to1911inJapan andSwitzerland) (from 1883inGermany program indicate the the standard but deviations hereshowthat first, might three oftheseevents-workmen's compensation, unemployment andfamily allowances-areindeed events. Each insurance, period occursto mostcountries within a 2o-year real-time epoch,irreof its Andit is when the first country spective adopted program. bounds two that the standard deviations (about noteworthy 2o-year wideineachcase) do notoverlap atall between and compensation and but between unemployment unemployment overlap slightly andfamily allowances. We mayfurther examine these thecountries bylisting patterns inorder ofadoption inTable4. within theprogram, a listing given which hasa "spike,"a short within Each ofthefive events period a largenumber ofcountries the certain Moreover, adopt program. and LuxemtheUnited countries-theNetherlands, Kingdom, of found in the five times, (four bourg-are nearly always spike in the fifth each Other countries, case). narrowly missing bycon-

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Table 4 Age
GFR DEN NEZ AUS UKI AUL ICE FRA LUX SWE NET ITA
BEL

Ordersof adoptionof fivemajor welfare programs Health

GFR AUS SWE DEN
BEL

CompensationUnemployment Family
GFR AUS NOR FIN UKI ITA FRA DEN SWE NET AUL LUX
BEL

1889
I89I I898

1883 1888
I89I 1892

1884
1887 I895

FRA NOR DEN UKI NET FIN ITA AUS BEL LUX SWI GFR NEZ SWE ICE CAN AUL

I905
I906 I907 19II I916 1917 I919 1920 1920 1921
1924

NEZ
BEL

1926 1930 1932

FRA ITA NET AUL CAN UKI NOR ICE SWE LUX AUS FIN

I906
1908 1908 1909 1910 1911 1913 1913 I919
1924

1895
1897 1898 1898
1901 1901 1902 1902 1903 I908 I908 1911 1911 1925

1937
1939 1941 1944 1945

1894
1901 I909 1911 1911 1912

LUX NOR UKI SWI ITA NET JAP

FRA

1898

1946 1946
1947 1947

1913
1922
1928

1927 1930 1934

1948
1948
1952 1952 1954

CAN NOR FIN JAP

1927

ICE NEZ
AUL

1936
1937 1941

1936 1938
1944 1957

CAN NEZ JAP SWI

1936
1940 1944

SWI
DEN GFR

CAN

SWI 1946

FIN

1963

ICE

JAP 1947

JAP 1971

Note: AUL = Australia; AUS = Austria;BEL = Belgium; CAN = Canada; DEN Denmark; FIN = Finland; FRA = France; GFR= Germany;ICE = Iceland; ITA = Italy; JAP= Japan; LUX = Luxembourg; NET = Netherlands; NEZ = New

UKI = United SWE= Sweden;swI = Switzerland; Zealand; NOR= Norway; Kingdom.

in thespike;Germany, are never theoriginal welfare state, trast, and Japan,one of the last. (The United States,likeJapanbut notshown for thespike.)Hereis evidence here,is alwaysafter the reaction view-some sortof unmeasured policyparameter ofa each country as an adopter within thecontext characterizing world-historical process. Abbott a nullhypothesis dis(1984) showshow to establish fora setof sequences of uniqueevents. tribution consisting (By sequence,here,we mean the simpleorderof events,not the informalized theduration usedin optimal sequences matching; in a different that formation thisanalysis enters way.)He argues of family like "thedevelopment allowances" are overallevents these realizedin manyspecific laws; he therefore distinguishes from thesingle overall "event."By "occurrences" many specific an event willhaveproduced a certain anygiventime, percentage

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TheWelfare State as Transnational Event 263

will ultimately fulfill that of all theoccurrences it; thefunction is like distribudistribution a this cumulative probability graphing is analogous to a probability tionandhas a derivative that density function" this"event function. (EIF) intensity Roughly speaking, rate which event occurrences. the at the graphs produces particular of an For anyset of timeintervals, theEIF givesthelikelihood ofthat in in each interval. Note that the occurrence "event type" is the event worldwide allowconceptualization, "family present ances" and theoccurrences aretheindividual country programs. The individual welfare country sequencesare simply adoption inwhich eachofthefive once. EIFshasbeensampled only samples in suchsamplesfollows Hence theprobability of a givenorder of theinterval directly by a simple,if laborious, multiplication probabilities. inthefollowing We haveperformed these calculations manner. We tooktheoriginal datafor eachprogram/event andtreated itas a timeseries, with each the number of times that associating year in was initiated that Since there were 18 events program year. only in each Ioo-yearseries,we smoothed thefive timeserieswith a This standard filter.14 shown in the EIFs 3. yielded Figure three-pass inthese thefine detail curves be taken cannot Although seriously, ofthedata,thegross thesparsity arestrikingly simigiven shapes is an early lar.In every case there a main peak, peak(coinciding withthe spikenotedin thelists),and one or moresubsequent wellwith themodeldiscussed remarkably peaks. This shapefits ina regular welfare diffuse aboveinwhich state pattern, programs main of andstragglers, and with a followers, body early adopters, in mostcountries distributed these randomly peaks. Wehavesectioned these EIFseachdecadefrom decadal 188ofor of theprobability of various and have then estimates programs calculated theexactprobability of each of the 120 possibleseTable5 lists the25 most quencesofthefive probable programs.'5 indescending with their individual order, sequences probabilities, their cumulative andthecountries them. probabilities, following Ties (countries where in oneyear)arelisted twoevents occurred A fewsequences andstarred. seem atthemore probable sequence NewZealand'ssequence thetop, uncommon; (24135)is 32dfrom and Australia's (31542 or31524-thereis a tie)is either 2othor in this to table,itis straightforward 38th.Foranygiven sequence of getting thebinomial likelihood theobserved calculate number

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264

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'I (I

i3 1 I1'

/ " -1 ~1,....:
.. ,i . -.

S ,iIr

,'".
I' I
1920

.
'\

I
1940 --1960 UNEMP(4) 1980 FAMILY(5)

1
1900

1880

- - - HEALTH(2) --

COMP(3)

...... AGE(1)

functions for various welfare 3 Event programs intensity Figure this andthetopofthelist.Theprobaofcases between sequence casesinthetopsequence is .1756;of5 ormore of3 ormore bility casesinthetop cases inthetop2 sequences, .1320;ofIO ormore in 6 sequences,.1729; of 15 or more cases thetopii sequences, in and of all 18 cases thetop32 sequences, .2032. There .o0930; little morethan to be a for thecases is a slight tendency grouped but not a the of the we wouldexpecttowards top list, significant ofprofor no strong a fixed one. Thereis thus sequence support as would be modernization theory, although by predicted grams, do comein three oftheprograms of course,as we noted before, we see is quite a nearly order. ofsequences universal Thevariety that for each we simply with the country hypothesis compatible with theEIFS. from inaccordance takeone occurrence eachevent conThis seemsstriking the ideas that internal evidence against and that ditions in thecountries thesequence of adoption dictate is a uniform there sequence. common Onecangetthemost There is a further issue,however. in 2 in second the the decade, third, order, 3 23145, by having

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as Transnational Event 265 TheWelfare State

ofparticular Table 5 Probabilities sequences Probability Sequence

2

3 3 3
2

3
2

3 3
3 3 I 3
I

I 3

2
I

2 4 4

4 4 4 5

5 5 5 2
5

.07686
.06894

GFR, SWE, LUX

AUS, JAP, NETa, ITAa

.06356 .06244
.06148

UKIa CAN
BEL, SWIa

4 4 3 4
3 I

4 4
I

I 2
5 2

5 5
2

.06121 .05955
.04558 .03991

FIN FRA

2
2

4
I

5
5 5

2
I

.03980 .03847 .03351 .03090

.02245

ICEa
NOR

3
2

3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 3
I

2 3 2
I I

3 4 3

I
I

4 5 4

3 4 4 4 3

4 2 5 4 3 5 2 2

5 5 5 5 4 5 I I 5 5

4 4 4 2 5 2 4
I I I

5 2 5

.03357

DEN

.o1596 .01588 .01527 .oi499 .01466 .01409 .01277 .01230 .00997 .00844

AUSa

aTie: countries at thehigher sequence. reported probability

or by getting and 5 in thesixth, 4 in thefifth, I in thefourth, themall in the third decade, or in manyother ways. (Here is where thedurational information theactualways enters.) Perhaps wereunusual. thesesequenceswereobserved thedeAlthough we haveshown that tailsrequire too muchspace to be reported, of thesesequences arosein rather a substantial number unlikely somesortof modifying making parameter, ways. This suggests a uniqueparameter random: theprocessless than totally perhaps to themainworld-polity as a country's relation defining process, inthereaction orperhaps somemodifying localeffects, as model, on individual-level effects. seeninthesection

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266

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CONCLUSION

In thisconcluding we develop section provisional interpretations for theresults. Webegin similarities anddifferences byconsidering theadoption Wethen turn tothecuriously reguamong sequences. in adoption We larpatterns ofthecurves for each event. patterns of related and possibilities close withsomediscussion variables for future research. a world-level We havefound considerable evidence for process in somecasesbyindividual of policyadoption, modified effects, of diffusion. Certain and one kind conscious by policy, possibly than are more of this world-level regular aspects process clearly unfor worker's others.In particular, compensation, policies are and allowances alwaysadopted nearly employment, family in thatorder.Moreover, thesethree policiesare periodevents, uniform timesacrossall thesecountries. adoptedat relatively in is there considerable variation contrast, amongcountries By andold-agepensions. theadoption of health insurance The only effects we havefound arethepositive depossiblelocal variable of health insurance on the size of the service pendence timing sector and on socialist on and of pension representation, timing and (positive) government expenditures (negative). corporativism Fornoneofthese haveprior theories a serious rationale. generated Thereis onlyweakevidence for with cultural diffusion, similarity theonlypossiblemedium. is exemplary there Finally, providing evidence forthereaction model;thatsome (butnotsystematic) "with conscious local countries the alwaysadopt pack" suggests to a are Our results, then, policyresponse general process. strong theperiodpattern for worker's incompensation, unemployment of a and the generalpattern surance,and family allowances, world-historical modified processperhaps slightly by individual factors andpoliciesandbydiffusion. A little reflection this theoretical rationales for suggests pattern. All fiveevents involve workrelationships to a greater or lesser extent. What health insurance andpensions from the distinguishes three ordered is thedisagreement events abouttheextent clearly of thatinvolvement acrossvarious countries. Healthinsurance can be conceived as directly related to theability to workor as a larger entitlement nonworkers as well.Some covering program define thecovered via employment; somedo not. programs group

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TheWelfare as Transnational State Event 267

benefits whenillinclude Someprograms specific unemployment or not at all. do so little ness interferes withwork,butothers A stillmoredistant work relation obtains between andpensions, a future forpastand present work whichare usually reward but in somecasesareuniversal entitlement which unrelated programs topastwork. theclearordering ofthree oftheprograms reflects Presumably, consensus on their salienceto workitself. these three, Among as are earlier are to the closer they perceived programs adopted immediate relation. worker's which Thus, wage compensation, involves chronic work-induced to work, comes physical inability first. which involves noninsurance, Unemployment temporary to work that is not work-induced, physical inability necessarily which comeslater. thoselegally allowances, Family support prefrom and vented work which free others to enter wage wagework, in health comea distant last.Thevariety andpensions, insurance on this in of how these relate to reflects variety perceptions theory, work. wasconstrued within Where health a framework ofenabling Whereit was seen as a genwork,it shouldhave come early. itshould eralentitlement havecomelater. With matter, pensions, one might butthere makethesame speculation, theconnection is looser.In neither case arewe simply that predicting programs with work-related will definitions come earlier, coverage although is onepossible that theissueis whether the Rather, interpretation. are seen as immediate for programs supports peopletemporarily or permanently unableto work(becauseof health or age) or as entitlements or rewards on deserved the basis of global pastbehavior.Obviously, twoconceptions willcoexist these inanysociety at a giventime, of butourviewis that the early adoption programs reflects thenarrow view. Thusa theory basedon work anditsperception seemsto make of welfare sense of thepatterns sequences. Veryposadoption a world-level reflects demand; siblythiswholepattern perhaps in theWest hada greater than is sometimes effect earlysocialism there is no obviousmodernization-based or thought. Certainly, for order. state-based rationale this particular Whilea theory basedon images ofwork for temmayaccount of adoption acrossevents, it does notaccount for poralpatterns in thesedata. As we haveseen, all theother regularity striking follow a "humped" a distinct oftheevents pattern; early adoption

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268

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peak and thenone or morelesser by a larger peak is followed is particularly unusual becausemost ones.Thisregularity "noisy" If do not distributions. stochastic producemultipeak processes the we there weresimply cases, among heterogeneity generalized while and roughly wouldexpectunimodal curves, symmetrical on the curves would leading contagion produce exponential simple ones. onthetrailing declines edgeswith precipitous temporal to explain thehumped cometo mind Severalpossibilities patis a "waitand see" model. One of them terns we do observe. havevarycountries On thismodel,implicitly earlier, suggested low-threshold countries A of for thresholds adoption. group ing wait to see if it works. After a sufficient and others a adopt policy, to adopt. thresholds decides with time has passed,a group higher or Within each "wave,"we wouldexpect symmetrical exponenor on ourtheory of spread tialcurves, (heterogeneity depending of on the This model thresholds, hinges assumption contagion). which ofdiscrete back the however, pushes humps simply question intotheperceptual arena. are How might arise?Assumethat countries suchthresholds of others as a wave takes adoption place. At watching contagious some a certain fails point, likely country conspicuously to adopt. character arisesin local political (The "conspicuous" processes; welfare and decisions aboutthem debated, policiesare actively could aregenerally nonadoption quite public.)Sucha conspicuous of its own wave that is, might generate nonadoptions; nonadoption, be contagious as well. As a waveof nonadoption brings adoptionto a halt,thesituation is defined as one of "waitand see." a country waveof Theneventually breaks rank andstarts thenext a set of Thus, (contagious) adoptions. cognitive processes simple "discretize" theprocess. might effectually An alternative modelfor these is much humps simpler. Perhaps actual reflect international connections-at policy meetings they oftheILO,for arediscrete affairs and Plenary meetings example. couldgiverisetodiscrete evidence ourearlier However, adoption. thatILO policyprofiles are notvery to suggests closelyrelated in these countries were all strong Moreover, adoption. participants that Butthepossibility remains of some particular organization. forthediscrete relatively simpleexplanation humpsvia actual Itis curious, inthis events. that three ofthe five events have regard, substantial theFirst World War(health insurance, peaks during

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as Transnational Event 269 TheWelfare State

and that allowances workmen's family compensation) pensions, that War.It is also noticeable areclearly tiedtotheSecondWorld after its insurance has peak right majoradoption unemployment in factunemployment in Europe theFirstWorldWar,although considered that ofprocesses not here There area variety directly A of forfurther number commentators seemimportant analysis. that countries have suggested mayhaveadopted policiesduring in somesense,policy Of course, bursts of state-building activity. is thesamething as state so we should notview building, adoption as completely thesephenomena it would Nonetheless, separate. to develop of state be interesting measures and building separate torelate them to policy adoption. is thedeAnother these issue,throughout countries, important of as an to education alternative "welfare." On this velopment educational view (see, e.g., Heidenheimer 1981), development for welfare state mayin somecases havebeena surrogate expansion. If thisis so, then ouradoption dataneedto be completed on education. withinformation there are cases where However, for while inother thetwoproceeded (Sweden, together example), the two were countries Thus, (Germany) considerably separated. be while education an to welfare, may important complement of thepresent is not thepreliminary results we feelthat viability the "educational by complement" theory. questioned of welfare In short, a close study policyadoption sequences that state aroseina process common indicates thewelfare broadly A to thenonsocialist countries. small of posideveloped degree to individual on the various be attributable policiesmay tioning toleadorfollow. Iflocalvariation anddirect countries' tendencies are small. Theserediffusion haveanyeffects, they surprisingly on the sultspartly and work existing complement question partly have seemed welfare state.On the one hand,local differences in paststudies under all welfare combining programs significant in via as a singleheading measures, (e.g., expenditure Pampel as inOrloff and andWilliamson 1989,orviatheoretical grouping, with Skocpol1984) as wellas in studies working single programs various U.S. 1985and,comparing (e.g., PampelandWilliamson that simultaneous Pavalko states, 1989).Ourresults suggest analytheseresults sis of severaldifferentiated mayqualify programs ofthe that students Ourresults also strongly suggest considerably.
was generally lowerduring1918-20 thanafter 1920.

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welfare stateshouldtakeour secondand third levels-those of diffusion and theworld-polity-more than havein seriously they thepast.Multilevel models a necessity in thisarea, areprobably and local effects once theyare weaker mayseem considerably At the same the local-level literature time, applied. exclusively inPampel andWilliamson's utilizes, (1989) extensive particularly time series information on independent not variables formulation, used(becauseofmethodological inourmultilevel restrictions) yet that the these One couldreconcile findings byarguing approach. we describe dictates initial kindof world-level program process hasoccurred. localvariables over oncethat butthat take adoption, is necessary work bothapproaches It seemsclearthat combining totest sucha hypothesis.
NOTES

see Abbott 199oa,199ob. I Forgeneral background, is the only viable one. Using 2 Although this assumption problematic, we maycall interest in workmen's Abbott's (1984) terms, compensation an "event"andthevarious lawsembodying itsvarious extents the"occuris that occurrences"spawned event. Ourassumption bythat comparable renceshappenat comparable rates acrossevents. It is necessitated bythe ofgetting dataon,for thefull setofcompensation laws difficulty example, acrossall countries. view presumes a group-level we 3 Since the reaction processto modify, itinthegroup-level inthediffusion one. consider section rather than 4 Thereare threepossiblegrouplevels:theworld,thedevelopedworld, and the nonsocialist world. We focuson thelast because the developed from first mixesdiffusion from colonialpolicywiththatarising arising direct andthesecond involves thesocialist countries' modeling, categorical ofone type ofprogram insurance). rejection (unemployment theUnited Statesfrom theseanalyses becauseit lacks 5 We have omitted one of thefive we haverunthem the However, including majorprograms. United States andfind few differences. onthe 6 Whether arejustified onone'sphilosophy, these depends assumptions In ourmethand on theresults theassumptions facts, empirical produce. lie in its theproblems with thegenerative odologicalframework, position use ofcontinuous which areonly nowbeginning tobe addressed variables, In standard thegenerative wouldremethods, by thesemethods. position event models.In commenting on quirefive-way competing-event history this Samuel Preston hassuggested as another individual article, using option event models with theother states as predictors (thus history using program fiveseparate times butlosingthecomposite the information sequences). event which examine transitions oreven models, Ordinary history particular

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Event 271 The Welfare State as Transnational ordestination transitions alone,areprevented bythelargenumber byorigin on of statesinvolved (31). For an illustrative exampleof thosemethods related data, see Hannanand CarrollI98I. Foran exampleof eventhisof analysis) of adoption of a single U.S. states as units (with tory analysis of competing that theentire welfare ignores problem policy-a procedure risks-see Pavalko1989.Foran excellent thegengeneral following study erative butreducing thedependent variable toan overall spending approach see PampelandWilliamson measure, 1989. The choiceof a Io-yearinterval is arbitrary. To checktheeffects of this we haverunall results all sequences to a 50-unit interval, standardizing differed from theunstandardized results. theresults little length; very in Sankoff are reviewed and Kruskal1983. Optimal-matching techniques Forrecent see Miura1986andDoolittle 1990. Forapplicadevelopments, see Abbott andForrest andHrycak and tions, 1986andAbbott 1990. Forrest Abbott ofcoding theempirical variation on optimal impact (I990) examine calculations aredoneherewith theBeldings matching. Optimal-matching ofDavidBradley ofCalifornia series State program University, LongBeach from (these Abbott). programs maybe obtained ofregressing The normal variables as depenscaling practice independent on thescaledcoordinates dentvariables and Wish1983) has the (Kruskal of notallowing In our case, the multivariate disadvantage investigation. was so interpretable intext. that wechosetheprocedure pattern given In commenting onthis Jane Menken haspointed outthat lackofvariarticle, in an overall ance in thesefigures wellimply mayvery constancy process, It is worth that as modernization information (continuous) predicts. noting of coverage showsa stronger forage, at leastonce the on amount effect arefirst See Pampel andWilliamson 1985,1988,1989. programs adopted. Reverse installed thewelfare state causality maybe at issuehere.Bismarck in parliament. socialist The peculiar to prevent findrepresentation partly to thedemand thesuccessof his(and ingswith theory mayreflect respect in thisregard. an unidentified We thank seminar others')policy judgment at theUniversity of Pennsylvania forthispoint.Fora similar participant reverse causation welfare rather making argument policiesan instrument than an outcome ofclassconflict, see Stryker 1990. Thatleaves,of course,theanomaly of England itself. thereaProbably son forEngland's earlier lies in theextreme of socialist adoption intensity in 1911. agitation immediately preceding adoption This last closenessmeasure mayseem to repeattestsdone in the prior isolateeach variable's whilehere section.But regression methods effect, we consider them This procedure testswhether countries that are jointly. whether alikeadoptalikebutdoes notdistinguish arises adoption similarity orcontagion. Thereis a much weaker from internal similarity presumption diffusion here than inthereligious andILOmeasures. of implicit The filter usedwas(I) a moving a five-year window, (2) a average passwith a two-year and(3) a weighted window, average moving pass with moving window and weights of 1:2:1. Note thatthese averagewitha three-year which would havea denominator defined EIFsarenothazard rates, bythose

7 8

Io

ii

12 13

14

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nations at risk, that still nations Ourconceptuis, those lacking programs. alization heresees thequestion notas oneof "howmany countries that did in this was a nothaveprograms decade" butone of "howlikely gotthem of is theunit ofthis to fallinthis decade."Thatis, theevent program type andadoptions areseenas instances ofit,distributed overvarious analysis, ofanalysis "at rather than thecountries beingseenas units possibleyears, To compute curves based on theat-risk risk"of adopting someproperty. of adoption annualestimates of theprobability one develops conception, If one with smoothes them thesame filters. amongthoseat riskand then a rectangular distribution of adoption-say, one adoption considers every ascend willgenerally suchcurves five at onceclearthat years-it becomes of thedenominator. becauseof theshrinkage toward theright However, in that curves forthese dataand find we haveestimated they hazard-type of oftheEIFsshown retain fact thecharacter here;each one has a number distinct humps. Thusthesequence them 15 Ties werehandled byapportioning equiprobably. in events other occurring 12345couldarise,among many ways,byall five that are 120arrangements ofthefive one decade. Sincethere events, given ofthis all occurinonedecade,wegaveV20ofthetotal joint probability they that eachevent was event ofthefive (theproduct probabilities independent the inthat Wehandled 120arrangements. observed decade)toeachofthose situations inthesameway. numerous parallel REFERENCES A. (1984) "Event andevent duration." Historical Methods Abbott, 17: sequence 192-204. on sequencemethods." Science I: Organizational (I99oa) "A primer 373-92. in social sciencemethods." of time and events (I99ob) "Conceptions Historical Methods 23: 140-50. forhistorical semethods (1986) "Optimal matching , and J. Forrest ofInterdisciplinary 16(3):471-94. quences."Journal History in sequence data." resemblance Abbott, A., andA. Hrycak (I990) "Measuring American Journal ofSociology 96: I144-85. Amenta, E., and B. G. Carruthers (1988) "The formative yearsof U.S. social Review 53: 661-78. policies."American Sociological spending S. (I98I) "An indexof socio-economic Banks, Arthur 1869development: ofPolitics 1975."Journal 43: 390-411. of childhood and the Boli-Bennett, J., and J.W. Meyer (1978) "The ideology state."American Review 43: 797-812. Sociological diffusion." American versus Collier, D., andR. Messick(1975) "Prerequisites Political ScienceReview 69: I1299-1315. P. (1965) "Politicalstructure, economic and national Cutright, development, social security American Journal ofSociology 70: 537-50. programs." of thestateand theexpansion of public DeViney,S. (1983) "Characteristics socialexpenditures." SocialResearch 6: 151-74. Comparative

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SCIENCE

HISTORY

Sankoff, D., and J.B. Kruskal Edits,and Macro(1983) TimeWarps, String molecules. MA: Reading, Addison-Wesley. of Corporatist Schmitter, P.C., and G. Lehmbruch (1982) Patterns PolicyHills,CA:Sage. making. Beverly S. K. (1982) "The sequential of social programs in Schneider, development welfare states." Social Research 5: 195-200. eighteen Comparative modeland beyond." Shalev,M. (1983) "The social democratic Comparative NewYork: J.T. (1934) TheOrigins oftheInternational Labour Office. Shotwell, Columbia Press. University andsocialpolicies."Annual Review (1986) "States Skocpol,T., andE. Amenta R. (199o) "Science,class,andthewelfare of state."American Journal Stryker, 96: 684-726. Sociology C. L., andD. A. Jodice Handbook ofPolitical andSocial (1983) World Taylor, CT:Yale University Press. Indicators. 3d ed., NewHaven, sources ofnational welG. M., andP. Lauderdale Thomas, (1987) "World polity inG. M. Thomas, fare andlandreform," and J.W. Meyer, E O. Ramirez, J.Boli (eds.) Institutional Structure. CA:Sage: 198-214. Park, Newbury G. M., J.W.Meyer, andJ.Boli,eds. (1987)Institutional Thomas, E O. Ramirez, Structure. CA:Sage. Park, Newbury ofLabor(1965) Directory ofLaborOrganizations. U.S. Department Washington, DC: U.S. Government Office. Printing U.S. Social Security Administration (1982)SocialSecurity Programs throughout theWorld, Office. DC: U.S. Government 1981.Washington, Printing Forum S.C. (1987) "The fertility transition." 2: 645-73. Watkins, Sociological H. (1975) The Welfare State andLos Angeles: andEquality. Wilensky, Berkeley ofCalifornia Press. University World Almanac (1988).
of Sociology 12: 131-57. Social Research 6: 315-51.

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