10.05.

2013

Company Analysis - Overview

Ticker:

Molycorp Inc

MCP UN

Sector: Materials

Benchmark:
S&P 500 INDEX (SPX)

New York: MCP, Currency: USD

Currency:

Industry: Metals & Mining

Molycorp, Inc. produces rare earth minerals. The Company produces rare earth
products, including oxides, metals, alloys and magnets for a variety of applications
including clean energy technologies, technology, and defense applications.

Year:

Telephone
1-303-843-8067
Revenue (M)
529
Business Segments in USD
2'700
Website
www.molycorp.com
No of Employees
Rare Earth Products
Address
5619 Denver Tech Center Parkwa Suite 1000 Greenwood Village, CO 80111-3013 United States
Rare Earth Alloy Products
Share Price Performance in USD
Rare Metals
Price
6.70
1M Return
22.0%
Other Non-Rare Earth products
52 Week High
26.10
6M Return
-10.7%
52 Week Low
4.70
52 Wk Return
-73.7%
52 Wk Beta
1.81
YTD Return
-29.0%
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg
S&P
Moody's
Fitch

HY5
CCC+
-

Date
Date
Date

12/09
-

12/10
88.5x
9.2x
0.0%

12/11
18.3x
11.7x
10.6x
5.0x
2.4x
0.0%

12/12
1.9x
1.1x
0.0%

12/13E
163.5x
1.8x
1.0x
-

12/14E
26.8x
8.0x
1.2x
0.9x
-

12/15E
15.3x
6.6x
1.1x
0.9x
-

12/09
Gross Margin
-209.8
EBITDA Margin
-347.9
Operating Margin
-402.8
Profit Margin
-403.0
Return on Assets
-29.6
Return on Equity
-37.4
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
12/09
Current Ratio
1.9
Quick Ratio
0.9
EBIT/Interest
Tot Debt/Capital
0.0
Tot Debt/Equity
0.0
Eff Tax Rate %
-

12/10
-7.8
-128.5
-145.6
-144.4
-17.6
-19.5

12/11
55.2
42.5
38.5
29.6
13.6
16.8

12/12
3.3
-21.4
-31.4
-85.0
-21.2
-44.3

12/13E
15.5
2.0
-10.6
-21.3
-1.5
-9.1

12/14E
35.6
27.8
17.5
4.8
2.0
4.9

12/15E
35.4
31.2
21.2
7.4
2.4
6.7

12/10
17.1
16.1
0.0
0.0
-

12/11
3.6
2.7
394.0
0.2
0.2
19.5

12/12
1.8
0.8
-7.5
0.5
1.0
-

22.08.2012
-

Outlook
Outlook
Outlook

Geographic Segments in USD

Unallocated Sales

Sales (M)
1

2%

12%

Valuation Ratios
P/E
EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
P/S
P/B
Div Yield
Profitability Ratios %

12%

DEVELOP
NEG
-

Sales (M)
293
48
46
9

74%
100%
Rare Earth Products
Rare Earth Alloy Products
Unallocated Sales
Rare Metals
Other Non-Rare Earth products

Current Capitalization in USD

Common Shares Outstanding (M)
Market Capitalization (M)
Cash and ST Investments (M)
Total Debt (M)
Preferred Equity (M)
LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)
Investments (M)
Enterprise Value (M)

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

138.8
1263.4
227.8
1228.4
0.0
0.0
10.8
2274.9

Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

Molycorp Inc
Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price

80

0%
20%

18%

18%

9%

9%

8%

70

40
64%

58%

40

40%

20%

50%

50%

56%

50%
40%

44%

44%

36%

27%

50

27%

27%

33%

0%

30

20

20

10

10
0

mai.12

juin.12

juil.12

aot.12

sept.12

Buy

oct.12

Hold

nov.12

Sell

dc.12

Price

janv.13

fvr.13

mars.13

avr.13

Target Price

Date

Buy

Hold

Sell

Date

30-Apr-13
29-Mar-13
28-Feb-13
31-Jan-13
31-Dec-12
30-Nov-12
31-Oct-12
28-Sep-12
31-Aug-12
31-Jul-12
29-Jun-12
31-May-12

33%
27%
27%
27%
36%
44%
56%
44%
40%
50%
50%
50%

58%
64%
64%
55%
45%
33%
22%
33%
40%
50%
50%
50%

8%
9%
9%
18%
18%
22%
22%
22%
20%
0%
0%
0%

10-May-13
9-May-13
8-May-13
7-May-13
6-May-13
3-May-13
2-May-13
1-May-13
30-Apr-13
29-Apr-13
26-Apr-13
25-Apr-13
24-Apr-13
23-Apr-13
22-Apr-13
19-Apr-13
18-Apr-13
17-Apr-13
16-Apr-13
15-Apr-13
12-Apr-13
11-Apr-13
10-Apr-13
9-Apr-13
8-Apr-13
5-Apr-13
4-Apr-13
3-Apr-13
2-Apr-13
1-Apr-13

Price Target Price

6.70
5.59
5.66
5.68
5.84
5.79
5.79
5.67
5.84
5.59
5.64
5.58
5.51
5.18
5.18
5.20
5.03
4.88
4.98
5.06
5.49
5.77
5.49
5.66
5.34
5.23
5.22
5.24
5.24
4.91

9.00
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
9.50
17.60
17.60
17.60
17.60
17.60
17.60
17.60
17.60
17.60

30

Broker

Analyst

D.A. Davidson & Co

JPMorgan
Stifel
Piper Jaffray
Cowen Securities LLC
Byron Capital Markets
Morgan Stanley
Robert W. Baird & Co
CIBC World Markets
Goldman Sachs
EVA Dimensions
Knight

AVINASH KANT
MICHAEL F GAMBARDELLA
PAUL FORWARD
MIKE J RITZENTHALER
ADAM P GRAF
JONATHAN HYKAWY
PARETOSH MISRA
BEN KALLO
MATTHEW GIBSON
BRIAN K LEE
CRAIG STERLING
CHRISTOPHER ECCLESTONE

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Recommendation
buy
neutral
hold
neutral
hold
buy
Equalwt/In-Line
neutral
sector outperform
neutral/neutral
sell
not rated

Knight

55%

64%

EVA
Dimensions

45%

Goldman
Sachs

33%

CIBC World
Markets

33%

Robert W.
Baird & Co

40%

Morgan
Stanley

22%

60%

50

60

50%

Byron Capital
Markets

50%

22%

Cowen
Securities LLC

50%

22%

Piper Jaffray

80%

22%

Brokers' Target Price

60

Stifel

0%

JPMorgan

0%

D.A. Davidson
& Co

100%

Price

Broker Recommendation

Target price in USD

Target

Date

7.00
6.00

10-May-13
10-May-13
10-May-13
10-May-13
10-May-13
10-May-13
29-Apr-13
17-Apr-13
17-Mar-13
28-Feb-13
16-Jan-13
29-Mar-12

8.00
15.00
8.00
16.00
6.00
48.00

10.05.2013

Molycorp Inc

Company Analysis - Ownership

Ownership Type

Ownership Statistics
Shares Outstanding (M)
Float
Short Interest (M)
Short Interest as % of Float
Days to Cover Shorts
Institutional Ownership
Retail Ownership
Insider Ownership

138.8
67.3%
44.8
47.97%
8.94
64.70%
34.32%
0.98%

34%

65%

Institutional Ownership

Retail Ownership

Insider Ownership

Pricing data is in USD

Top 20 Owners:
Holder Name
MOLIBDENOS Y METALES
RCF MANAGEMENT LLC
RCF MANAGEMENT LLC
PEGASUS PARTNERS IV
VANGUARD GROUP INC
STATE STREET
BLACKROCK
TRAXYS SARL
WELLINGTON MANAGEMEN
LORD ABBETT & CO LLC
SUN LIFE FINANCIAL I
BLUE RIDGE CAPITAL L
TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MA
ALETHEIA RESEARCH &
HARTFORD INVESTMENT
MORGAN STANLEY
ROYCE AND ASSOCIATES
FRANKLIN RESOURCES
AGF INVESTMENTS INC
UBS

United States
Chile
Unknown Country
Canada
Germany
Britain
Switzerland
Others

65.50%
25.18%
4.12%
1.45%
0.99%
0.79%
0.72%
1.25%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Investment Advisor
Other
Hedge Fund Manager
Individual
Others

52.69%
34.11%
8.92%
1.45%
2.83%

SMITH MARK A
BURBA JOHN L
ASHBURN JR JOHN F
KRISTOFF MARK S
HENRY CHARLES R

1%
4%

1% 1% 1%
1%

25%
66%

United States

Chile

Unknown Country

Canada

Germany

Britain

Switzerland

Others

TOP 20 ALL

Position
32'050'700
16'343'863
16'343'863
7'970'073
6'665'054
4'354'959
3'751'643
3'388'232
3'259'275
3'098'726
3'067'690
2'864'700
2'662'200
2'588'839
2'538'050
2'155'737
1'561'000
1'460'558
1'245'383
1'026'181

Position Change
15'000'000
0
0
0
2'178'834
158'531
799'181
0
-1'034'096
1'365'526
1'988'600
2'864'700
836'100
-34'815
1'135'345
-3'626'543
1'561'000
1'460'558
1'079'350
465'546

Market Value
214'739'690
109'503'882
109'503'882
53'399'489
44'655'862
29'178'225
25'136'008
22'701'154
21'837'143
20'761'464
20'553'523
19'193'490
17'836'740
17'345'221
17'004'935
14'443'438
10'458'700
9'785'739
8'344'066
6'875'413

% of Ownership
17.00%
8.67%
8.67%
4.23%
3.53%
2.31%
1.99%
1.80%
1.73%
1.64%
1.63%
1.52%
1.41%
1.37%
1.35%
1.14%
0.83%
0.77%
0.66%
0.54%

Report Date

Position

Position Change

Market Value

% of Ownership

Report Date

1'006'951
223'505
189'352
137'412
110'593

20'000
-85'757
10'000
-49'704
43'692

6'746'572
1'497'484
1'268'658
920'660
740'973

30.01.2013
31.12.2012
31.12.2012
30.03.2012
31.03.2013
31.03.2013
08.05.2013
30.03.2012
31.12.2012
31.12.2012
31.03.2013
31.12.2012
31.03.2013
30.09.2012
31.03.2013
31.03.2013
31.03.2013
31.03.2013
31.03.2013
31.03.2013

Source
Form 4
13F
Research
13D/PROX
13F
ULT-AGG
ULT-AGG
13D/PROX
13F
13F
ULT-AGG
13F
13F
13F
MF-AGG
ULT-AGG
13F
ULT-AGG
13F
ULT-AGG

19.11.2012
15.06.2011
19.11.2012
15.06.2011
20.11.2012

Form 4
Form 4
Form 4
Form 4
Form 4

Top 5 Insiders:
Holder Name

Geographic Ownership

Geographic Ownership Distribution

1%

0.53%
0.12%
0.10%
0.07%
0.06%

Source

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Country
CHILE
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
n/a
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
CANADA
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
UNITED STATES
CANADA

Institutional Ownership
1%

3%

9%

53%
34%

Investment Advisor

Other

Hedge Fund Manager

Individual

Others

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Molycorp Inc
Financial information is in USD (M)
Periodicity:

Fiscal Year

Equivalent Estimates
12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

2
13

7
22

35
38

397
178

529
512

696

1'023

1'099

Gross Income
- Selling, General & Admin Expenses
(Research & Dev Costs)

-11
3

-15
14

-3
48

219
66
8

17
183
28

108

365

389

Operating Income
- Interest Expense
- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)

-14
0
0
-0

-29
0
0
0

-51
0
0
-0

153
0
5
0

-166
22
-3
312

-74

180

233

Pretax Income
- Income Tax Expense

-14
0

-29
0

-51
0

147
29

-498
-54

-175

79

121

Income Before XO Items

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax
- Minority Interests

-14
0
0

-29
0
0

-51
0
0

118

-444
0
6

-148
(0.75)

49
0.25

81
0.44

14

284

343

Income Statement
Revenue
- Cost of Goods Sold

Diluted EPS Before XO Items

(0.81)

1.27

(4.31)

Net Income Adjusted*

EPS Adjusted
Dividends Per Share
Payout Ratio %

-46
(0.74)
0.00

121
1.30
0.00
0.0

-39
(0.37)
0.00

82
62

84
85

139
107

-45

169

-113

0.00

0.00

Total Shares Outstanding

Diluted Shares Outstanding
EBITDA

-13

-25

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV

Periodicity:

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

8.71
2
0
1
3
2

18.52
7
0
1
9
2

353.432
316
0
16
19
2

639.044
419

633.678
228

71
112
38

52
287
66

87
0
64
1
63
24

79
0
71
5
66
13

126
104
10
94
32

616
20
585
23
562
34

2'361
65
1'589
45
1'544
752

4
2
0
2

10
3
0
7

21
13
3
5

179
162
2
16

359
242
40
78

13
0
13

14
0
14

12
0
12

231
197
35

1'387
1'189
199

17
0
0
92
-14

23
0
0
117
-43

33
0
0
540
-93

410
0
839
7

1'747
0
11
1'681
-444

Total Shareholders Equity

78

75

447

845

1'248

Total Liabilities & Equity

95

98

480

1'255

2'995

5.43
5.42

10.07
10.00

8.91
3.94

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

6.87

7.07

7.64

Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
+ Cash & Near Cash Items
+ Short Term Investments
+ Accounts & Notes Receivable
+ Inventories
+ Other Current Assets
Total Long-Term Assets
+ Long Term Investments
Gross Fixed Assets
Accumulated Depreciation
+ Net Fixed Assets
+ Other Long Term Assets
Total Current Liabilities
+ Accounts Payable
+ Short Term Borrowings
+ Other Short Term Liabilities
Total Long Term Liabilities
+ Long Term Borrowings
+ Other Long Term Borrowings
Total Liabilities
+ Long Preferred Equity
+ Minority Interest
+ Share Capital & APIC
+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity

Book Value Per Share

Tangible Book Value Per Share

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV

Periodicity:

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

Net Income
+ Depreciation & Amortization
+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments
+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital

-14
1
10
-4

-29
4
10
-8

-51
6
16
0

118
16
-90
0

-450
53
307
0

-149

50

73

Cash From Operating Activities

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets
+ Capital Expenditures
+ Increase in Investments
+ Decrease in Investments
+ Other Investing Activities

-7
0
-0
0
0
-82

-22
0
-7
0
0
10

-29
0
-33
0
0
-26

43
0
-302
-20
0
-27

-90
0
-800
0
0
-623

-417

-62

-51

Cash From Investing Activities

+ Dividends Paid
+ Change in Short Term Borrowings
+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings
+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings
+ Increase in Capital Stocks
+ Decrease in Capital Stocks
+ Other Financing Activities

-82
0
0
92
0
0
0
0

2
0
7
18
0
0
0
0

-59
0
4
0
379
0
15

-349
-9
-3
228
-4
200
0
-2

-1'423
-11
0
1'436
-229
132
0
-6

92

25

398

409

1'321

310

102

-191

-8

-30

-62

-259

-889

-493

49

-5

-58
-0.99

-259
-48
-3.11

307
-8.31

Cash Flows

Cash From Financing Activities

Net Changes in Cash
Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)
Free Cash Flow To Firm
Free Cash Flow To Equity
Free Cash Flow per Share

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV

Periodicity:

12/02

12/03

12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

88.5x
9.2x
0.0%

18.3x
11.7x
10.6x
5.0x
2.4x
0.0%

1.9x
1.1x
0.0%

12/13E

12/14E

12/15E

26.8x

15.3x

163.5x
1.8x
1.0x

8.0x
1.2x
0.9x

6.6x
1.1x
0.9x

15.5%
2.0%
-10.6%
-21.3%
-1.5%
-9.1%

35.6%
27.8%
17.5%
4.8%
2.0%
4.9%

35.4%
31.2%
21.2%
7.4%
2.4%
6.7%

Ratio Analysis
Valuation Ratios
Price Earnings
EV to EBIT
EV to EBITDA
Price to Sales
Price to Book
Dividend Yield
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin
Operating Margin
Profit Margin
Return on Assets
Return on Equity
Leverage & Coverage Ratios
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)
Tot Debt/Capital
Tot Debt/Equity
Others
Asset Turnover
Accounts Receivable Turnover
Accounts Payable Turnover
Inventory Turnover

-510.5%
-617.8%
-661.6%
-658.6%

-209.8%
-347.9%
-402.8%
-403.0%
-29.6%
-37.4%

-7.8%
-128.5%
-145.6%
-144.4%
-17.6%
-19.5%

55.2%
42.5%
38.5%
29.6%
13.6%
16.8%

3.3%
-21.4%
-31.4%
-85.0%
-21.2%
-44.3%

2.13
0.87

1.94
0.86

17.06
16.07

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.01
0.01

3.58
2.74
393.98
0.19
0.23

1.76
0.78
-7.51
0.50
0.98

0.07
5.53
10.72
3.81

0.12
3.99
6.06
2.77

0.46
9.11
3.10
2.72

0.25
8.59
3.40
2.56

Effective Tax Rate

19.5%

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision

MOLYCORP INC
Latest Fiscal Year:

12/2012
26.10
11.05.2012
4.70
17.04.2013
1'971'516

52-Week High
52-Week High Date
52-Week Low
52-Week Low Date
Daily Volume

Current Price (5/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change
52-Week Low % Change
Total Common Shares (M)

Market Capitalization
Total Debt
Preferred Stock
Minority Interest
Cash and Equivalents

Enterprise Value

TEXAS RARE
EARTH

RARE ELEMENT
RES

1.00
16.05.2012
0.14
29.11.2012
100

QUEST RARE
MINER

06/2012
5.45
21.06.2012
1.60
08.05.2013
85'145

LYNAS CORP LTD

10/2012
2.14
11.05.2012
0.40
18.04.2013
36'350

06/2012
1.13
29.05.2012
0.48
19.04.2013
36'987'009

AVALON RARE
META

ARAFURA
RESOURCE

08/2012
2.41
17.09.2012
0.93
17.04.2013
311'063

RAM RESOURCES
LT

06/2012
0.30
14.05.2012
0.10
30.04.2013
1'243'350

GREENLAND
MINERA

06/2012
0.01
29.10.2012
0.00
14.06.2012
2'020'000

12/2012
0.47
25.06.2012
0.24
30.04.2013
883'574

6.70

0.40

2.00

0.54

0.66

1.11

0.12

0.00

0.27

-74.3%
42.6%
138.8

-60.0%
185.7%
-

-63.3%
25.0%
44.4

-74.8%
35.0%
61.9

-41.3%
38.9%
1'715.0

-53.9%
19.4%
103.6

-59.3%
20.0%
396.0

-83.3%
0.0%
968.8

-43.0%
12.8%
567.9

1'263

15

90

34

1'294

115

53

152

1'228.4
0.0
10.8
227.8

51.7

26.4

403.1
124.4

38.3

0.0
19.5

5.9
0.1

10.8

2'275

18

1'504

141

528.9
590.8
696.3
1'023.4
4.4x
4.4x
(113.0)
(110.5)
14.0
284.0
-20.5x
-0.40
-0.73
(0.75)
0.25
26.8x
33.3%
(20.9%)
2.0%
27.8%

0.0
#DIV/0!
(31.3)
(31.3)
-5.5x
-0.79
-0.63
(0.27)
(0.18)
(73.9%)
-

0.0
#DIV/0!
-0.08
-0.08
-

0.0
35.7
331.5
#DIV/0!
43.4x
4.7x
(78.2)
(91.5)
(83.3)
63.7
-17.1x
24.3x
-0.05
-0.06
(0.05)
0.01
82.5x
(37.0%)
(233.8%)
19.2%

0.0
0.9
0.6
#DIV/0!
(12.1)
(5.8)
(5.8)
-8.6x
-0.11
-0.09
(0.09)
(0.08)
(31.3%)
(644.4%)
(966.7%)

99.3%
49.6%
-5.110x

0.0%
0.0%
-

0.0%
0.0%
-

71.5%
41.7%
-20.098x

0.0%
0.0%
-

CCC+
22.08.2012
-

41

95

12
Valuation

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

EPS

P/E

Revenue Growth
EBITDA Growth
EBITDA Margin

LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
LFY
LTM
CY+1
CY+2
1 Year
5 Year
1 Year
5 Year
LTM
CY+1
CY+2

0.0
#DIV/0!
(11.1)
(9.1)
-3.5x
-0.02
-0.01
(4.7%)
-

0.0
#DIV/0!
(1.1)
(1.1)
-6.0x
-0.00
24.6%
-

0.0
#DIV/0!
(12.2)
(12.2)
-11.6x
-0.04
-0.04
17.4%
-

0.0%
0.0%
-23.499x

0.0%
0.0%
-

Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %
Total Debt / Capital %
Total Debt / EBITDA
Net Debt / EBITDA
EBITDA / Int. Expense

0.0%
0.0%
-3739.744x

Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating
S&P LT Credit Rating Date
Moody's LT Credit Rating
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date

Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |