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Punj Lloyd
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit 4QFY13 3,292 261 15 4QFY12 3,038 255 9 % chg (yoy) 8.4 2.5 70.3 3QFY13 2,881 291 9 % chg (qoq) 14.3 (10.2) 74.9
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 1,793 5,887 1.6 64/39 870,078 2 19,692 5,980 PUJL.BO
`54 -
For 4QFY2013, Punj posted mixed set of numbers with subdued performance on revenue front, however higher tax credit provision during the quarter led to bottom-line growth. The companys order book stood at `22,499cr (a decline of 17.5% yoy), thereby converting into an order book-to-sales ratio of 1.9x FY2013 revenues. However, we maintain our Neutral view on the stock on account of various overhangs uncertainty over receivable claims, stretched working capital and increasing leverage on the balance sheet. Tax credit boost PAT margins: Punj reported a subdued revenue growth of 8.4% yoy to `3,292cr in 4QFY2013 against consensus estimate of `3,071cr The company reported an EBITDA of `261cr in 4QFY2013, a growth of 2.5% yoy, with EBITDAM declining by 45bp/217bp on a yoy/qoq basis to 7.9%. Interest cost increased by 4.8% yoy to `196cr while depreciation witnessed a growth of 12.9% yoy to `79cr in 4QFY2013. On the bottom-line front, PAT came in at `15cr (`9cr) in 4QFY2013, registering a growth of 70.3%. This was mainly due to higher tax credit provision of `11cr in 4QFY2013 (vs. `5cr in 4QFY2012) and lower performance at the operating level. Outlook and valuation: Based on FY2013 performance and current order book mix, we are revising our EPS estimates for FY2014 to `0.5 and introduce our FY2015 estimate to `0.9 respectively. Punj has been looking to reduce its debt through sale of its non-core assets and replacing Indian debt with foreign debt. However, given the difficult environment we believe these steps would not yield results before the next six to nine months. Further, there is no clarity on the timeframe of recovering various outstanding claims as legal issues such as litigation and arbitration usually are lengthy processes. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock due to headwinds faced by the company as mentioned above.
PUNJ@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 37.1 11.1 12.8 39.0
3m 1.1 8.8
FY2012 10,557 29.7 92 2.8 8.5 19.5 3.1 7.9 0.6 0.5 6.4 2.6 27,276 45.5
FY2013A 11,717 11.0 (7) (0.2) 9.8 (0.3) 9.5 0.6 0.6 5.6 1.9 22,499 (17.5)
FY2014E 12,954 10.6 17 0.5 9.8 106.4 0.6 10.0 0.6 0.6 5.6 1.8 23,624 5.0
FY2015E 14,740 13.8 31 83.6 0.9 9.8 57.9 1.1 10.9 0.6 0.5 5.4 1.7 25,514 8.0
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 3,292 3,031 261 7.9 196 79 15 2 (11) 12 1 2 15 0.5 15 0.5 0.5
4QFY12 3,038 2,783 255 8.4 187 70 17 16 (5) 21 (3) (9) 9 0.3 9 0.3 0.3
% yoy chg 8.4 8.9 2.5 (45)bp 4.8 12.9 (14.2) (89.5) 113.6 (39.6) (132.8) (121.7) 70.3 18bp 70.3 18bp 70.3
3QFY13 2,881 2,590 291 10.1 198 88 3 8 8 (1) 8 2 9 0.3 9 0.3 0.3
% qoq chg 14.3 17.0 (10.2) (217) bp (1.3) (10.5) 432.4 (78.4) (229.0) (1,518.2) (87.8) 10.5 74.9 18bp 74.9 18bp -
FY2013 11,717 10,567 1,150 9.8 781 354 25 41 70 (29) 4 18 (7) (0.1) (7) (0.1) (0.2)
FY2012 10,557 9,660 897 8.5 633 299 227 193 81 112 (11) (9) 92 0.9 92 0.9 2.8
% chg 11.0 9.4 28.2 132bp 23.4 18.3 (88.9) (78.7) (12.9) (125.9) (136.7) (288.4) (107.8) (93)bp (107.8) (93)bp (107.8)
3,184
2,884
4,485
2,109
912 3,934
2,611
Pipelines
Tankages
Infrastructure
Process
Offshore
South Asia
10.4
11.3
10.1
50 0
2.0 -
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 EBITDA (` cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS)
Pipelines
Tankages
Infrastructure
Process
Offshore
South Asia
FY2015E Variation (%) (1.2) (3.5) (82.8) Earlier Estimates 14,740 9.8 31 Revised Estimates 14,740 9.8 31 Variation (%) 12,954 9.8 17
Revised Estimates
13,116 10.2 98
In order to lower its interest cost, Punj is looking to reduce its debt by sale of non-core assets, and replacing Indian debt with foreign debt. However, given the difficult environment, we believe these steps would not yield results before the next six to nine months. Further, there is no clarity on timeframe of recovering various outstanding claims as legal issues such as litigation and arbitration usually are lengthy processes. We continue to remain Neutral on the stock due to headwinds faced by the company.
0.5 0.9
Company background
Punj Lloyd (Punj) is a diversified global engineering and construction company, with presence across the infrastructure (39% of order book), pipeline (12%), and process segments (24%). Punj Group has two main entities Punj, headquartered in India and SEC in Singapore. Punj started as a pipeline company in 1982. Over the years, Punj, with the help of various JVs and acquisitions, has increased its expertise in basic infrastructure projects, such as roads, power, cross-country pipelines, urban infrastructure, tankages and terminals and process plants, among others. Punj was listed in 2006, and in the same year, it acquired SEC and Simon Carves.
13,358 14,850 15,631 60,837 69,586 79,247 5,863 1,565 6,026 2,180 6,576 2,511 6,824 2,455 7,264 2,736 7,563 2,734
13.8 33.5 15.7 23.9 24.6 11.1 28.8 8.0 7.9 2.4 131.3 75.5
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013A FY2014E FY2015E 10,448 10,448 (12.3) 10,083 3,770 4,968 1,345 365 (17.2) 3.5 227 137 (47.8) 1.3 387 108 (76.7) (141) (162) 21 137 654.4 (116) 10 (2) (108) (363) 51.1 (3.5) (10.9) (10.9) 51.1 8,139 10,557 (22.1) 7,411 2,384 3,900 1,127 728 99.7 8.9 269 459 233.5 5.6 463 21 130.6 16 16 66 417.4 (50) 2 (3) (8) (60) (60) (83.6) (0.7) (1.8) (1.8) (83.6) 29.7 9,660 3,100 5,207 1,353 897 23.3 8.5 299 599 30.5 5.7 633 227 117.5 193 193 81 41.8 112 (11) (9) 92 92 0.9 2.8 2.8 8,139 10,557
11,717 11,717 12,954 12,954 14,740 14,740
11.0
10,567 3,519 5,365 1,684 1,150
10.6
11,678 3,886 5,931 1,861 1,275
13.8
13,289 4,422 6,749 2,118 1,451
28.2 9.8
354 797
10.9 9.8
383 892
13.8 9.8
413 1,039
33.1 6.8
781 25
12.0 6.9
817 28
16.4 7.0
880 31
61.4
-
27.0
-
16.2
-
41 (78.7)
-
103 149.9
-
189 83.6
-
41
70
103
35
189
64
170.5
(29)
34.0
68
34.0
125
4 18 (7) (7)
(10) (42) 17 17
(17) (76) 31 31
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013A FY2014E FY2015E 66 2,961 3,027 42 4,455 180 7,705 3,120 943 2,178 160 382 8,828 611 1,042 7,175 3,843 4,985 7,705 66 2,912 2,979 74 3,881 152 7,085 3,365 1,113 2,252 82 384 1,215 1,137 7,139 5,123 4,367 7,085 66 2,855 2,921 86 4,944 155 8,106 4,187 1,368 2,820 329 371 973 1,422 8,756 6,564 4,587 8,106 66 2,752 2,818
90
66 2,835 2,901
90
66 2,852 2,918
90
9,490 11,151
8,599
9,204
9,793
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013A FY2014E FY2015E 21 165 (1,786) (108) (137) (1,845) (331) 279 108 57 6 896 6 679 1,587 (201) 812 611 16 170 1,221 (21) (66) 1,321 (166) (2) 21 (148) 0 (575) 6 0 (569) 604 611 1,215 193 255 (462) (227) (81) (322) (740) 13 227 (500) 1,064 6 (490) 580 (242) 1,215 973 41 354 (374) (25) (70) (75) (582) 7 25 (551) 0 595 14 (122) 487 (138) 973 835 103 383 (729) (28) (35) (306) (400) 28 (372) 522 14 1 537 (141) 835 694 189 413 (634) (31) (64) (127) (400) 31 (369) 572 14 (122) 464 (33) 694 661
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Order Book/Sales (x) Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROAE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage
previous year numbers
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013A FY2014E FY2015E 0.6 0.3 0.5 15.5 0.7 2.7 (10.9) (10.9) (4.1) 0.2 91.2 1.3 1.7 1.1 2.0 2.2 (13.2) 3.6 145 85 151 122 1.3 10.5 0.4 8.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 6.1 0.6 2.3 (1.8) (1.8) 6.3 0.2 89.7 5.6 1.3 1.1 6.2 7.1 (2.0) 2.5 213 98 107 165 0.9 3.7 1.0 19.5 4.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 6.4 0.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 11.8 0.2 88.0 5.7 58.2 1.6 5.4 8.3 1.1 2.0 7.9 9.2 3.1 2.8 191 80 104 104 1.4 4.4 0.9
5.2 0.6 106.4 4.5 0.6 57.9 4.0 0.6
0.8
0.6 5.6 0.8 1.9
0.8
0.6 5.6 0.8 1.8
0.8
0.5 5.4 0.8 1.7
0.4
84.9
0.4
87.4
0.4
87.9
6.8 (70.5)
6.9 66.0
7.0 66.0
1.6
(7.5) (10.5) 1.5 (3.0)
1.6
7.2 9.3 1.7 3.7
1.7
7.8 9.1 1.9 5.1
9.5
10.7 (0.3)
10.0
11.0 0.6
10.9
11.8 1.1
2.6 201 88
2.6 199 95
2.7 192 93
118
95
115
98
109
103
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbrokling.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Punj Lloyd No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
11