Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Weekly Review

AKD Research
research@akdsecurities.net
009221 111 253 111

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 18,636.03 14,546.19
Last week 18,043.31 14,208.38
Change
3.28%
2.38%
Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 32,934.50 13,209.70
Last week 31,598.72 12,802.46
Change
4.23%
3.18%
Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

PkRbn
4,587.26
4,446.90
3.16%

US$bn
46.65
45.19
3.23%

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
210.45
Last week
151.25
Change
39.14%

The KSE-100 Index gained a healthy 3.28%WoW to close at 18,636 points. With the result season fast approaching, trading volumes picked up with average daily traded volume increasing by 39%WoW to 210.45mn shares. Key news flows this week included i)
acceptance by ULEVER of the buyback price of PkR15,000/share, ii) CPI for Mar13
clocked in at 6.57%YoY/0.41%MoM, the lowest YoY reading since Jul09, iii) imposition
of fine by CCP on ENGRO and FFC for abuse of market position and an unjustified increase in the prices of urea during Dec10 to Dec11 period and the subsequent decision
of the two companies to appeal against the decision in court, iv) payment of IMF installment worth US$115mn and v) statement by Standard and Poors (S&P), stating that
since Pakistans trade and capital flows are not expected to improve in the near-term,
and considering the lack of alternative sources of bilateral or multilateral funding, it is
imperative that Pakistan approach IMF for shoring up reserves. Within the AKD Universe,
top gainers during the week were ULEVER (+22.4%WoW, convergence of price to the
approved buyback price), HCAR (+16%WoW on weakening JPY) and EFOODS (+13.8%
WoW as investors switched to EFOODS to gain exposure to the FMCG sector). Top losers during the week were led by SNGP (-3.3%WoW), ABL (-3.0%WoW) and SSGC (2.1%WoW). Volumes were led primarily by the cement sector with four of the top five
volume leaders being cement companies. In this regard, volume leaders were MLCF
(105.1mn shares), FCCL (79.7mn shares), LPCL (63.9mn shares), ENGRO (52.0mn
shares) and DCL (38.4mn shares).

Index & Volume Chart

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

Sym bol

Volum e (m n)

MLCF

FCCL

5 April 2013

105.13

79.65

Universe Gainers & Losers

(Shrs'000)

(Index)

300,000
18,576
250,000

LPCL

63.91

ENGRO

52.00

200,000

DCL

38.40

150,000

25.0%

18,700
18,613
18,636

18,346

18,600

20.0%

18,500

15.0%

18,400

10.0%

18,272

18,300

5.0%

100,000

5-Apr

17,500
16,500

400

15,500

300

Ready Volume (LHS)

KSE100 Index (RHS)

5.0%
SNGP

4-Apr

ABL

3-Apr

BAFL

2-Apr

SSGC

1-Apr

HMB

18,000

EPCL

18,500

500

0.0%

PSMC

19,500

18,100

EFOODS

600

50,000

HCAR

(Index)

ULEVER

(mn)

18,200

Source: KSE & AKD Research

14,500
13,500

200

12,500

100

11,500
10,500

Volume (LHS)

Apr-13

Feb-13

Oct-12

Dec-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Apr-12

May-12

KSE-100 Index

Outlook
In the coming days investors are likely to focus on fundamentals as the results season is
right around the corner. In this regard major result next week is FFBL on Apr 1213. On
the economic front, MPS is scheduled to be released this month where we expect status
quo despite the low inflation numbers.

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2012 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

5 April 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Apr 05, 2013
18,760
18,725
18,690
18,655
18,620
18,585
18,550

16:19

15:36

14:52

14:09

13:26

12:43

12:00

11:17

9:50

10:34

9:07

18,515

Apr 04, 2013

18,678

FFC and FATIMA 1QCY13 Result Previews ( Apr 05, 2013)

With 1QCY13 results around the corner, we forecast fertilizer sector profitability to improve significantly compared to last year led by impressive recovery in fertilizer demand
for the review period. In this regard, while we have already updated investors on our
earnings estimates for FFBL (1QCY13E EPS: PkR0.29 vs 1QCY12 LPS: PkR0.41), we
expect FFC to post NPAT of PkR4,996mn (EPS: PkR3.93) in 1QCY13, a substantial
growth of 29%YoY led by a 56%YoY growth in the topline. We also expect the company to announce a cash payout of PkR3.5/share to PkR3.75/share alongside the result.
Moreover, we expect FATIMA to post NPAT of PkR1,411mn (EPS: PkR0.67) in
1QCY13, a growth of 3.2xYoY led by 86%YoY higher revenue. The topline growth is
expected to be driven by a 50%YoY, 2.8x%YoY and 13xYoY growth in urea, NP and
CAN offtakes, respectively. At current levels, FFC provides a CY13F D/Y of 15% and a
28% upside to our Dec-13 TP of PkR141/share while FATIMA trades at an attractive
CY13F P/E of 5x and provides an upside of 62% to our Dec-13 TP of PkR37/share.

18,645
18,612
18,579
18,546
18,513

15:21

14:41

14:01

13:22

12:42

12:02

11:22

10:42

9:22

10:02

18,480

Apr 03, 2013

18,675
18,600

Gas curtailment vs. price hike, what do the numbers say ( Apr 04, 2013)
CCP on Tuesday imposed the highest ever fine on fertilizer companies (FFC and ENGRO) for allegedly abusing their dominant position in the urea market and unjustifiably
raising prices during the Dec'10-Dec'11 period. In this regard, FFC and ENGRO have
been slapped fines of PkR5.5bn and PkR3.1bn respectively. In order to access the net
impact of the price hike versus gas curtailment, we have compared the actual urea revenue of the companies with the loss in revenues (opportunity cost) from gas curtailment, where the DAWOOD Group is the clear loser from gas curtailment, despite the
urea price hikes. Fertilizer manufacturers are likely to contest the CCP fine in court
where we dont see any immediate cash flow impact of the fine.

18,525
18,450
18,375
18,300
18,225

15:36

14:54

14:13

13:33

12:52

12:11

11:31

10:50

9:28

10:09

18,150

Apr 02, 2013

18,480
18,438
18,396
18,354
18,312

FFBL 1QCY13: Result Preview & Outlook ( Apr 03, 2013)

FFBL is scheduled to announce its 1QCY13 result on Mar 12'13. We expect the company to post an NPAT of PkR271mn (EPS: PkR0.29) as compared to NLAT of
PkR381mn (LPS: PkR0.41) in 1QCY12, when suspension of gas supply had led to record low production levels. We expect a 3.2xYoY growth in DAP offtake and 40%YoY
growth in urea offtake during 1QCY13 (largely due to a low base effect) to lead to revenue growth of 2.7xYoY. On a sequential basis, we expect FFBL to post a bottomline
decline of 88%YoY on the back of sizably lower urea production and offtake and seasonally lower DAP sales. Despite continuing gas supply concerns, where we expect
gas curtailment for FFBL similar to last year levels, we expect the company's profitability to improve in CY13 led by higher primary DAP margins and downward sticky urea
prices. At current levels, FFBL trades at an attractive CY13F P/E of 6.2x and provides
an upside of 6% to our Dec-13 TP of PkR41/share. Accumulate!

18,270
18,228

15:21

14:44

14:09

13:33

12:21

12:22

12:57

11:45

11:09

11:37

10:33

9:56

9:20

18,186

Apr 01, 2013

18,400
18,320
18,240
18,160
18,080
18,000
17,920

15:22

14:37

13:52

13:07

10:52

9:22

10:07

17,840

March 13 CPI review ( Apr 02, 2013)

Mar'13 CPI clocked in at 6.57%YoY/0.41%MoM, the lowest reading since Jul'09. This is
corroborated by the SPI trend which also suggested a 0.5%MoM increase in CPI. As a
consequence, 9MFY13 CPI registered an average of 8%YoY, whereas the 12month
moving average stands at 8.9%YoY, still below GoP's FY13 inflation target of 9.5%.
The single digit CPI numbers are largely due to i) contained 0.55%MoM food inflation
(arrival of wheat crop and bumper sugarcane crop), and ii) tepid 0.08%MoM increase in
housing and other utilities. At the same time, Core (trimmed mean) inflation is also on a
downtrend despite increase in Money Supply (M2 up 15%YoY) and stood at 8.4%YoY
in Mar'13, while averaging 9.6% in 9MFY13. Considering benign CPI numbers and
SBP targeting Trimmed Mean CPI, risks to the economy and further monetary easing
remain from i) potential increase in government borrowing (PkR807bn FY13TD), ii)
speculative pressures on the currency (4%PkR-US$ depreciation FY13TD), leading to
imported inflation and iii) weakness on external front particularly if oil prices remain firm.
In this regard, while the market showed positive momentum in the last trading session,

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

5 April 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

possibly on the back of soft CPI numbers, we believe SBP will adopt a cautious stance
in the Apr'13 MPS and maintain status quo.
DAWH: Poor mans exposure to ENGRO ( Apr 01, 2013)
We re-initiate coverage on DAWH with a 'Buy' recommendation where our SoTP based
Dec'13 end TP of PkR68/share offers 31% upside from current levels. We have assumed a 40% holding company discount (HCD) to arrive at out SoTP based TP. Our
Buy stance for DAWH is underpinned on expectations of a sustainable long-term gas
supply scenario for the fertilizer sector, particularly for ENGRO, where DAWH's 38%
holding in the company accounts for 74% or PkR50/share of our TP. Moreover, while
DAWH's impressive 60% gain in 1QCY13TD is primarily underpinned by the government's approval of ENGRO's existing Mari gas allocation, we believe there are additional upsides in the form of improving outlook for DH Fertilizers and the company's plan to
diversify into bran oil production. From an investment perspective, every PkR5/share
price increase in ENGRO represents a ~2ppt increase in DAWH's SOTP value, while
HUBC's value for DAWH (14% stake) clocks in at PkR21/share (PkR12.5/share after
accounting for HCD).

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

5 April 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

Major World Indices Performance

Regional Valuations (2013)

Country

BloombergCode

EPSGrowth
Pakistan
11%
Indonesia
25%
Malaysia
23%
Philippines
2%
Vitenam
8%
India
26%
China
29%

PE(x)
7.83
13.72
15.55
15.40
20.12
12.47
9.52

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

DivdYld
7.13
1.95
3.45
2.04
3.44
1.90
3.14

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

ROE
21.61
19.14
13.83
14.14
17.50
16.07
14.00

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

5Apr13

29Mar13

18,636
5,766
1,490
4,926
1,689
6,727
503
21,727
3,300
21,002
9,629
18,450
2,225
1,560
14,606
3,225
6,239
7,666
8,577
3,059
1,880
6,817
6,111
7,178
1,017
528

18,043
5,736
1,561
4,941
1,672
6,847
491
22,300
3,308
21,532
9,767
18,836
2,237
1,569
14,579
3,268
6,412
7,795
8,586
3,018
1,845
6,720
6,051
7,178
1,035
524

WoW

CYTD

3.28%
10.24%
0.53%
2.18%
4.58%
7.01%
0.30%
14.12%
1.02%
0.02%
1.76%
15.73%
2.35%
21.48%
2.57%
4.10%
0.25%
4.19%
2.46%
4.46%
1.41%
4.79%
2.05%
5.03%
0.51%
1.93%
0.59%
9.38%
0.19%
11.46%
1.30%
6.80%
2.70%
5.78%
1.66%
0.70%
0.11%
2.61%
1.36%
16.27%
1.93%
15.89%
1.44%
14.88%
0.99%
6.08%
0.01%
5.54%
1.72%
3.61%
0.87%
7.78%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

5Apr13

29Mar13

DollarIndex

82.531

82.976

USD/PkR

98.370

98.433

96.0

USD/JPY

96.230

94.220

95.0

EUR/USD

1.299

1.282

94.0

GBP/USD

1.531

1.520

AUD/USD

1.041

1.042

NZD/USD

0.841

0.837

CHF/USD

0.935

CAD/USD

1.022

USD/KRW
CNY/USD

PkR/US$ Trend
99.0
98.0
97.0

93.0
92.0
91.0

Apr-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

May-12

90.0

Source: Bloomberg

Chg+/

WoW

CYTD

0.445

0.54%

3.46%

0.063

0.06%

13.39%

2.010

2.13%

10.93%

0.017

1.36%

1.52%

0.011

0.76%

5.80%

0.001

0.09%

0.15%

0.004

0.47%

1.47%

0.949

0.014

1.51%

2.13%

1.017

0.004

0.40%

2.96%

1,132

1,111

20.340

1.83%

6.32%

6.206

6.210

0.004

0.39%
0.07%
Source: Bloomberg

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index

SPOT

Units

5Apr13

29Mar13

WoW

CYTD

TRJCRB

Points

287.45

296.39

3.02%

2.56%

315

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

92.37

97.23

5.00%

0.60%

305

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

104.94

109.27

3.96%

6.25%

295

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

3.94

4.1

3.90%

14.53%

285

Cotton

USd/Pound

95.7

94.8

0.95%

15.37%

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1569.59

1598.75

1.82%

6.31%

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

27.0737

28.4613

4.88%

10.78%

Copper

US$/MT

7411.75

7509.75

1.30%

6.26%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1531.05

1571.5

2.57%

0.53%

Coal

US$/MT

87.8

87.8

0.00%

3.14%

325

275

Apr-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

May-12

265

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

5 April 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

1.60

(%)
12.0

1.50

10.0

1.40

8.0
6.0

1.30

4.0

1.20

2.0

1.10

FIPI Flows for the week

(US$mn)
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
(1.00)
(2.00)
(3.00)
(4.00)
(5.00)
(6.00)

2,500
1,968
1,397

1,380

1,000
500
(500)
(1,000)

Ind.,
3.81

NBFC,
3.55

Co.,
10.03
Bank/DFI,
(2.93)

Others,
0.62

(1,044)
(1,500)
4-Apr

5-Apr

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%

KSE- All Share Index

AKD Universe

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

-10%

KSE100

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

MSCI EM
MSCI FM

Mar-13

35%

Feb-13

3-Apr

Jan-13

2-Apr

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

Apr-12

Apr-13

M.Funds,
3.91

Apr-13

1,995
2,000

1-Apr

Feb-13

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$'000)

1,500

Jan-13

Dec-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jun-12

Apr-12

Apr-13

Jul-12

Nov-11

Jun-10

Jun-08

Sep-07

Mar-11

0.80

Oct-09

(6.0)
Feb-09

0.90

Jan-07

(4.0)

May-12

1.00

(2.0)

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

5 April 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

5Apr13
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2010A
6.88
23.31
31.07
33.97
50.21

2011A
8.61
25.10
25.39
38.90
52.44

2012A/F
9.75
13.20
15.67
44.76
50.63

2013F
10.79
10.75
17.38
49.95
55.86

2014F
12.70
17.67
18.52
56.13
54.06

12.28
2.49
14.30
3.43
17.91
8.14
4.09
8.21

9.82
2.17
11.40
2.93
16.80
10.18
5.34
6.58

8.67
1.89
9.86
2.55
13.12
11.53
5.84
5.87

7.83
1.69
8.40
2.20
10.79
12.77
7.13
5.27

6.66
1.51
7.09
1.92
9.40
15.02
8.12
4.55

20.26
3.67
16.53
22.69
13.39
10.57

22.14
4.01
13.60
24.56
14.96
11.64

21.78
3.96
18.01
22.78
13.59
11.16

21.61
4.00
7.02
23.67
14.30
11.55

22.63
4.28
8.78
25.13
15.57
12.49

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2013F

1.0

(x)

11.6
7.4

Mar13

Jul12

Nov12

Mar12

Jul11

Nov11

Mar11

Jul10

Nov10

Mar10

Jul09

Nov09

Mar09

Jul08

Nov08

Mar08

Jul07

Nov07

Mar07

Jul06

Nov06

Mar06

Jul05

Nov05

3.2

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2013F

(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7

Mar13

Nov12

Jul12

Mar12

Jul11

Nov11

Mar11

Nov10

Jul10

Mar10

Jul09

Nov09

Nov08

Mar09

Jul08

Jul07

Nov07
Mar08

Nov06

Mar07

Jul06

Mar06

Jul05

Nov05

0.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

5 April 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

Stocks

Automobile and Parts

Pak Suzuki Motors

Symbol

PSMC

Price

TP

(PkR)

(PkR)

Stance

107.3

114.8

Accumulate

EPS (PkR)
11A

9.7

12A/F

11.9

PE(x)
13F 11A

12A/F

PBV(x)
13F

11A

12A/F

DY (%)
13F

11A

12A/F

13F

14.5

11.1

9.0

7.4

0.58

0.55

0.52

1.9

2.3

2.8

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
DGKC

72.3

64.9

Reduce

0.4

9.4

9.2

185.3

7.7

7.9

1.05

0.96

0.86

0.0

2.1

2.8

Lucky Cement

LUCK

169.6

164.0

Neutral

12.3

21.0

27.2

13.8

8.1

6.2

1.97

1.65

1.37

2.4

3.5

3.5

Chemicals
Engro Polymer Chemicals

EPCL

11.6

10.2

Reduce

-1.1

0.1

0.4

-10.5 154.5

32.2

1.23

1.18

1.13

0.0

0.0

0.0

Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited

LOTPTA

7.4

7.6

Neutral

2.8

0.0

0.5

2.7

n.m

14.6

0.85

0.95

0.89

6.8

0.0

0.0

Engro Corporation

ENGRO

134.1

207.6

Buy

15.8

2.6

13.3

8.5

51.4

10.1

1.81

1.82

1.62

3.4

0.0

3.0

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.

FFBL

38.8

43.7

Accumulate 11.5

4.6

6.6

3.4

8.4

5.9

2.66

2.87

2.65

25.8

11.6

15.5

Fauji Fertilizer Company

FFC

110.6

135.3

Buy

17.7

16.4

14.9

6.3

6.8

7.4

6.10

6.41

5.00

12.1

14.0

13.6

Fatima Fertilizer

FATIMA

22.9

36.0

Buy

2.0

2.9

4.3

11.7

7.9

5.3

1.71

1.66

1.35

6.2

8.7

17.5

Food Producers
Unilever Pakistan Limited

ULEVER

15,000.0

9,900

Sell

308.9

413.0

444.1 48.6

36.3

33.8 46.96

40.36 40.56

2.1

2.8

2.8

Engro Foods Limited

EFOODS

144.7

157.7

Accumulate

1.2

3.4

5.4

123.7

42.5

26.6

n.m

68.43 19.15

0.0

0.0

0.0

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.

OGDC

204.5

206.0

Neutral

14.8

22.5

25.7

13.8

9.1

7.9

4.36

3.30

2.70

2.7

3.5

5.1

Pak Oilfields

POL

472.9

490.9

Neutral

45.7

50.1

61.1

10.3

9.4

7.7

3.33

3.06

2.77

7.4

11.1

9.5

Pakistan State Oil

PSO

202.0

251.4

Buy

59.8

36.7

39.9

3.4

5.5

5.1

1.19

0.95

0.82

3.4

1.9

5.4

Electricity
Hub Power Co.

HUBC

52.7

57.4

Accumulate

4.7

7.1

6.3

11.2

7.5

8.4

1.94

1.80

1.66

10.4

11.4

11.4

Kot Addu Power Company

KAPCO

53.5

58.5

Accumulate

7.4

6.9

8.9

7.2

7.8

6.0

1.97

1.94

1.91

12.1

12.9

15.9

Fixed Line Telecommunication

Pakistan Telecommunication PTC

21.2

37.7

Buy

1.6

2.2

2.7

12.9

9.5

7.8

1.10

1.03

1.03

8.2

0.0

9.4

Personal Goods
Nishat Mills

NML

83.5

108.0

Buy

13.8

13.6

15.7

6.1

6.2

5.3

0.83

0.78

0.60

4.0

4.2

5.4

Nishat Chunian Ltd.

NCL

49.5

55.6

Accumulate

8.0

3.8

12.3

6.2

12.9

4.0

1.58

1.48

1.13

3.7

3.7

6.1

Banks
Allied Bank Limited

ABL

57.2

70.0

Buy

9.9

11.4

10.3

5.8

5.0

5.6

1.37

1.18

1.07

7.2

10.3

8.7

Bank AlFalah

BAFL

14.8

20.0

Buy

2.6

3.4

3.5

5.7

4.4

4.2

0.78

0.66

0.63

11.8

13.5

13.5

Habib Bank Limited

HBL

97.0

112.1

Accumulate 16.6

16.7

16.4

5.8

5.8

5.9

1.18

1.03

0.95

6.0

7.0

8.2

MCB Bank Limited

MCB

197.6

181.8

Reduce

19.0

20.9

20.2

10.4

9.5

9.8

2.18

1.89

1.77

5.0

6.0

7.1

National Bank of Pakistan

NBP

38.7

48.0

Buy

8.3

7.9

8.2

4.6

4.9

4.7

0.61

0.53

0.52

15.3

15.7

18.1

United Bank Ltd

UBL

87.1

112.5

Buy

12.1

15.7

14.1

7.2

5.5

6.2

1.24

1.06

1.01

8.6

9.8

9.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

5 April 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
5-Apr-13

1M

YTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

18636.03

3.2

11.9

18.3

34.7

10.2

18636.03

13368.89

AGTL
MTL

210.05
515.20

-8.7
1.0

-8.7
-2.1

-0.1
18.3

20.0
14.5

-11.9
0.4

252.79
579.05

175.05
429.84

INDU
PSMC

304.00
107.26

-7.4
-5.6

14.7
24.3

18.7
6.4

33.3
58.0

12.6
22.4

339.71
113.61

217.69
67.81

DGKC
LUCK

72.30
169.57

12.1
2.6

36.6
14.9

44.0
25.4

84.8
39.0

32.5
11.9

73.43
170.72

38.42
113.18

EPCL
LOTPTA
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

11.58
7.37
134.07
22.90
38.78
110.58

13.1
-7.8
8.5
-6.3
0.1
-2.1

23.7
4.7
50.6
-11.7
0.8
-5.7

23.6
2.1
25.7
-4.5
0.7
-4.7

-10.9
-14.9
29.5
-0.6
-5.1
-10.3

14.4
0.3
45.7
-13.3
0.5
-5.6

13.09
9.94
136.23
26.89
45.93
127.12

8.61
6.29
81.92
21.51
35.73
106.23

ULEVER
EFOODS

15000.00
144.69

42.9
10.4

47.1
48.7

50.0
103.8

164.2
202.4

48.5
47.4

15000.00
144.69

5572.80
43.45

73.56

0.7

11.8

12.7

31.1

8.0

78.00

55.27

OGDC
POL
PSO

204.48
472.85
202.04

0.3
-2.5
-2.3

8.2
8.7
7.3

14.2
4.3
9.9

23.0
26.3
16.4

6.2
8.1
4.4

209.58
485.78
207.37

147.63
351.79
162.08

HUBC
KAPCO

52.73
53.50

-2.2
0.1

17.4
7.6

10.9
7.1

40.7
19.5

16.6
8.3

53.92
55.34

36.90
43.05

PTC

21.23

-7.3

27.6

7.7

70.1

22.4

23.97

12.12

NCL
NML

49.52
83.53

6.8
6.9

43.5
34.3

118.9
36.0

172.6
47.7

41.3
30.8

50.93
85.46

15.70
47.01

57.16
19.13
14.84
96.98
14.95
197.60
26.39
38.65
87.13

-17.1
-1.0
-20.5
-7.0
-19.2
0.2
8.5
-28.8
-5.6

-21.2
8.5
-9.6
-7.2
-18.3
5.1
-1.5
-20.8
5.6

-12.1
25.7
-2.9
0.0
-13.3
19.6
10.1
-12.1
21.8

-12.4
30.7
-10.6
-5.2
-12.2
24.8
1.9
-17.7
12.5

-22.2
11.1
-11.8
-9.4
-20.7
3.6
-2.5
-21.7
4.1

75.54
19.69
18.89
109.15
19.00
210.71
27.82
54.74
94.56

57.16
13.07
14.84
94.15
14.95
140.87
23.87
38.65
69.28

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Unilever Pakistan Limited
Engro Foods Limited
Non Life Insurance
Adamjee Insurance

AICL

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

5 April 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

3M

11.85

10.87

10.19

9.59

9.24

9.13

9.09

9.20

6M

11.88

10.90

10.19

9.63

9.26

9.16

9.14

9.32

12M

11.89

10.91

10.19

9.65

9.32

9.32

9.26

9.37

PIB 10Y

13.20

12.22

11.66

11.39

11.26

11.49

11.60

11.99

KIBOR 6M

12.01

13.20

10.39

9.83

9.45

9.13

9.35

9.43

Discount rate

12.0

10.50

10.50

10.00

10.00

9.50

9.50

9.50

Headline inflation

9.60

9.10

8.79

7.66

6.90

7.93

8.10

7.40

Core inflation

11.3

10.8

10.4

10.1

9.7

9.8

9.9

9.6

Food inflation

9.1

8.5

7.6

5.8

5.3

7.7

8.1

7.4

T-bill

Inflation

External Indicators
Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

2,057

2,078

2,219

2,016

1,896

1,969

2,023

1,835

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

3,662

3,589

3,506

3,790

3,607

3,672

3,763

3,383

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

(1,605)

(1,511)

(1,287)

(1,774)

(1,711)

(1,703)

(1,740)

(1,548)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

1,205

1,259

1,135

1,365

1,018

1,135

1,090

1,028

Current Account

US$ (mn)

(321)

1,084

(331)

(177)

(638)

697

(156)

(596)

Deposits

PkR (bn)

6,112

6,276

6,315

6,305

6,514

6,683

6,610

n.a

Advances

PkR (bn)

3,702

3,714

3,723

3,756

3,793

3,857

3,873

n.a

Investments

Banking Sector

PkR (bn)

3,347

3,390

3,658

3,756

3,785

3,889

3,990

n.a

Weighted avg lending rate

12.93

12.82

12.65

12.41

12.25

11.97

11.60

11.52

Weighted avg deposit rate

5.88

5.87

5.75

5.64

5.58

5.43

5.39

5.34

Spread

7.05

6.95

6.90

6.77

6.67

6.54

6.21

6.18

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

106,876

123,359

180,774

135,133

139,709

203,125

132,644

n.a

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

21,854

32,358

84,546

45,304

48,440

105,022

40,161

n.a

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

85,022

91,001

96,228

89,829

91,269

98,103

92,483

n.a

Reserves

US$ (mn)

14,609

14,856

14,923

14,325

13,531

13,859

13,636

12,936

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

89.55

94.49

94.64

95.49

96.08

97.25

97.55

98.04

Currency

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

5 April 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the
specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Ayub Ansari
Raza Hamdani
Anum Dhedhi
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net
raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net
ayub.ansari@akdsecurities.net
raza.hamdani@akdsecurities.net
anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net
bilal.alvi@akdsecurities.net
qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net
hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net
azher.quli@akdsecurities.net
nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net
tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

E&P, Oil Marketing

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
Fertilizer, Chemicals, Food & Telecom
Fertilizer, Chemicals & Power
Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
Textiles
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

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This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities
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opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so
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our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to
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publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.
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