Attitudes towards the Tea Party over Time

An American Enterprise Institute Compilation (May 2013)

Karlyn Bowman and Andrew Rugg How strong is the Tea Party today? Will IRS targeting of Tea Party groups reinvigorate the movement? One way to begin to answer the question is to examine how views of the Tea Party have changed since 2010 when the pollsters began to track opinions about it. AEIs public opinion team does just that in this compilation, reviewing trends from 9 major pollsters on Tea Party activism, support, and favorability. Even though questions about the Tea Party are not asked as frequently as they once were, many of the questions in this report show a slight drop in support since 2010, when they were first asked. Recent questions in the wake of the IRS scandals, show conflicted evidence of an increase in support. Quinnipiac University and Fox News ask one of the most specific questions about involvement whether you are part of the Tea Party movement. In August 2012, 16 percent of registered voters told Fox News they were part of the Tea Party movement. When Fox first asked the question in January 2012, 16 percent also gave that response. Gallup, AP/GfK-Roper, CBS News and the New York Times, and NBC and the Wall Street Journal ask people whether they are supporters. A March 2013 CBS/New York Times question and an April 2013 AP/GfK-Roper survey produced almost identical responses (22 percent said they were supporters in the former, 23 percent in the latter.) AP/GfK-Roper, CBS, and NBC find that around six in ten now say they arent supporters. Gallup gives people the option of saying neither and this affects results. The ABC/Washington poll asks a different question about whether people support or oppose the Tea Party. Their latest May 2013 poll shows that 40 percent support and 43 percent oppose, slightly down from the 44 percent who supported it and 43 percent who opposed in August 2012. Fox and CNN/Opinion Research Corporation ask people whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party. In a May 2013 CNN/ORC poll, 37 percent had a favorable opinion of the Tea Party, up from 28 percent in March. The Pew Research Center asks if people agree or disagree with the Tea Party. In their December 2012 poll, 18 percent agreed and 29 disagreed. Most said they had no opinion either way.

General Attitudes towards the Tea Party PSRA/Pew Agree/Disagree 24% 14% 25 18 24 18 22 18 29 26 Gallup Supporter/Not 28% 26% 29 28 31 30 30 27 NBC/WSJ Pos/Neg 28% 21% 29 28 31 30 34 31 30 34 30 36 AP/GfK Supporter/Not 29% 28% 31 60 27 68 27 65 28 69 28 68 ABC/WP Fav/Unfav 35% 40% 41 39 36 50 38 45

Jan. 2010 Feb. 2010 Mar. 2010 Apr. 2010 May 2010 Jun. 2010 Jul. 2010 Aug. 2010 Sep. 2010

Oct. 2010 Nov. 2010 Dec. 2010 Jan. 2011 Feb. 2011 Mar. 2011 Apr. 2011 May 2011 Jun. 2011 Jul. 2011 Aug. 2011 Sep. 2011 Oct. 2011 Nov. 2011 Dec. 2011 Jan. 2012 Feb. 2012 Mar. 2012 Apr. 2012 May 2012 Jun. 2012 Jul. 2012 Aug. 2012 Sept. 2012 Oct. 2012 Nov. 2012 Dec. 2012 Jan. 2013 Apr. 2013 May 2013

Continued PSRA/Pew Agree/Disagree 29 25 27 22 22 26 24 22 22 22 19 25 22 29 18 23 20 26 20 24 20 27 19 27 20 27 19 27 20 24 18 25 19 29 20 26 16 25 21 25 16 27 15 24 18 26 19 25 19 29RV 18 29 AP/GfK Agree/Disagree 33% 26% 35 26 35 27 35 30 34 31 35 31

Continued Gallup Supporter/Not 26 27 32 30 30 25 30 28 25 28 21 26 25 22 21 21 26 29 -

Continued NBC/WSJ Pos/Neg 32 40 30 38 33 37 29 38 29 44 28 41 28 43 28 41 27 44 27 43 28 43 27 38 28 37 23 37 -

Continued AP/GfK Supporter/Not 30 7 30 66 31 61 30 65 30 63 33 61 25 70 28 68 30 64 25 71 22 67 27 63 23 63 24 62 22 23 64 62 -

Continued ABC/WP Fav/Unfav 35 52 36 48 Support/Oppose 42 48 46 45 46 47 48 45 48 45 42 47 43 44 41 50 41 50 43 45 44 43 41 45 44 42 40 43

Jan. 2010 Feb. 2010 Mar. 2010 Apr. 2010 May 2010 Jun. 2010 Jul. 2010 Aug. 2010 Sep. 2010 Oct. 2010

AP/GfK Fav/Unfav 28% 30% 29 31 33 30 31 34 29 34 32 36

CBS/NYT Supporter/Not 18% 39% 18 62 20 59 27 56 29 54 19 63 24 63

Quinnipiac Part of it/Not 13% 80% 15 79 12 81 12 80 -

CNN/ORC Fav/Unfav 33% 26% 38 36 33 31 36 40 37 37

Nov. 2010 Dec. 2010 Jan. 2011 Feb. 2011 Mar. 2011 Apr. 2011 May 2011 Jun. 2011 Jul. 2011 Aug. 2011 Sept. 2011 Oct. 2011 Nov. 2011 Dec. 2011 Jan. 2012 Feb. 2012 Mar. 2012 Apr. 2012 May 2012 Jul. 2012 Aug. 2012 Nov. 2012 Feb. 2013 Mar. 2013 April 2013 May 2013

Continued Continued AP/GfK AP/GfK Agree/Disagree Fav/Unfav 35 30 32 36 37 47 28 46 28 46 CBS/NYT Favorable/Not 18% 12% 26 20 21 18 23 21 23 29 24 26 Fox Favorable/Un 35% 22% 36 34 39 35 35 38 -

Continued CBS/NYT Supporter/Not 31 58 22 68 20 63 23 64 24 66 25 63 26 64 22 68 18 73 20 65 24 66 23 70 20 68 22 66 26 64 26 65 22 68 20 64 22 65 -

Continued Quinnipiac Part of it/Not 13 83 12 85 16 80 12 85 14 81 -

Continued CNN/ORC Fav/Unfav 38 42 37 43 32 47 35 47 35 47 37 47 31 51 28 53 33 49 34 43 32 46 RV 32 50 28 48 37 45 Fox Part of it/Not -

Jan. 2010 Feb. 2010 Mar. 2010 Apr. 2010 May 2010 Jun. 2010 Jul. 2010 Aug. 2010 Sep. 2010 Oct. 2010 Nov. 2010 Dec. 2010

NBC/WSJ Quinnipiac Supporter/No Favorable/Un 28% 23% 32 31 33 31 28% 61% 30 31 28 61 30 59 34 38 29 61 -

Jan. 2011 Feb. 2011 Mar. 2011 Apr. 2011 May 2011 Jun. 2011 Jul. 2011 Aug. 2011 Sept. 2011 Oct. 2011 Nov. 2011 Dec. 2011 Jan. 2012 Feb. 2012 Mar. 2012 Apr. 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 Aug. 2012 Sep. 2012 Oct. 2012 Jan. 2013 Feb. 2013 Mar. 2013 April 2013 May 2013

Continued CBS/NYT Favorable/Not 18 25 26 29 20 40 21 29 22 30 -

Continued Fox Favorable/Un 36 47 31 51 30 51 35 46 -

Continued Continued NBC/WSJ Quinnipiac Supporter/No Favorable/Un 27 62 29 61 25 67 26 62 26 63 25 63 25 69 29 42 26 64 25 69 29 42 27 65 27 66 28 63 25 64 30 60 24 64 25 65 25 66 24 64 23 63 20 64 24 43 -

Continued Fox Part of it/Not 16% 81% 16 81 14 83 17 80 13 83 14 82 16 81 16 80 - -

Full Question Wording

Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? (CBS) Q: From what you know, do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement, or dont you have an opinion either way? (PSRA/Pew). The PSRA/Pew responses shown here are based on responses to two questions. The first asked people how much they had heard about the Tea Party movement, and then those who had heard a lot or a little were asked whether they agreed with it or had no opinion either way. August 2010 question of registered voters. Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the Tea Party movement, or neither? (Gallup) Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several public figures and groups, and Id like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. The Tea Party Movement. (NBC/WSJ) July 2012 NBC/WSJ question asked of registered voters and a partial sample. Q: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? (Quinnipiac) Q: Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neither favorable nor unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement? (AP/Gfk-Roper) Q: From what you know about the Tea Party movement, would you say generally agree, disagree or neither agree nor disagree on the Tea Party movements positions on political issues? (AP/GfkRoper) Q: Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or are you not a supporter of the Tea Party

movement? (AP/GfK-Roper) Q: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the political movement known as the Tea Party? (ABC/Washington Post) Beginning in May 2012 question wording changed to Q: What is your view of the Tea Party political movement-would you say you support it strongly, support it somewhat, oppose it somewhat or oppose it strongly? Q: Wed like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people or if you have never heard of them. (CNN/ORC) In June and December 2011, CNN.ORC asked as political organizations instead of people in the news. Q: Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, not favorable, undecided, or havent you heard enough about the Tea Party movement yet to have an opinion? (CBS/NYT) Q: Im going to read you the names of several individuals. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If youve never heard of someone, please just say so. The Tea Party movement. (Fox News, registered voters) Q: Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement? (NBC/WSJ, Registered Voters) Q: Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or havent you heard enough about it? (Quinnipiac) Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the Tea Party movement, or neither? (USA Today/Gallup) Q: Regardless of whether youve attended a Tea Party rally or event, do you consider yourself to be part of the Tea Party movement, or not? ( Fox News, registered voters)