ANALYTICAL STUDY ON PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD MARKET IN INTERNATIONAL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO TOKYO INFO SOLUTION

PROJECT REPORT

Submitted by RAJ BALAN R Reg. No.: 710511631033 in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION IN (Finance & Marketing)
COIMBATORE INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY COIMBATORE - 641109.

June 2013

COIMBATORE INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY

COIMBATORE - 641109.

Department of Management studies PROJECT WORK June 2013 This is to certify that the project entitled
ANALYTICAL STUDY ON PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD MARKET IN INTERNATIONAL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO TOKYO INFO SOLUTION

is the bonafide record of project work done by RAJ BALAN R Register No: 710511631033 of MBA (Finance & Marketing) during the year 2013.
--------------------Project Guide ----------------------Head of the Department

Submitted for the Project Viva-Voce examination held on ----------------------------------------Internal Examiner

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-----------------------External Examiner

DECLARATION
I affirm that the project work ANALYTICAL STUDY ON PRICE FLUCTUATION OF GOLD MARKET IN INTERNATIONAL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO TOKYO INFO SOLUTION , Being

submitted in partial fulfillment for the award of MBA is the original work carried out by me. It has not formed the part of any other project work submitted for award of any degree or diploma, either in this or any other University.

RAJ BALAN R
(Reg. No.: 710511631033)

I certify that the declaration made above by the candidate is true

Ms. R. Ananthi Assistant Professor

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I wish to present my heartiest gratitude in the footsteps of my parents who have taken intense burden for my successful education career. I wish to place our profound sense of gratitude to our respected Director Dr.K.A.Chinnaraju and our beloved Principal Dr.N.Nagarajan for providing us with excellent facilities without which the project would never has been successful. The respect we shower would really be no match to describe in these words, for we can really never forget the faith asserted in us by our esteemed Head of the Department Dr.T.Raju. I am very thankful for his incredible counseling and encouragement. I would fail miserably in my duties if I do not maintain the service of her guidance Ms.R.Ananthi, for the support and valuable suggestions in completing this project without which this project would not have become true.

Place: Date: (Raj Balan R.)

(Reg. No.: 710511631033)

LIST OF CONTENTS S.NO CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction to the topic 1.2 Gold Investment in India 2 3 4 REVIEW OF LITERATURE PROFILE OF THE STUDY AREA RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction 1.3 Objective of the study 1.5 Limitations of the study 1.4 Scope of the study 3.2 Sampling 3.3 Methods of data collection 3.4 Statistical tools 4 5 DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION FINDINGS AND SUGGESTIONS 5.1 Findings 5.2 suggestions 5.3 conclusion 6 BIBLIOGRAPHY PG.NO

LIST OF TABLE S.NO 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 TABLE Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2008. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2009. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2010. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2011. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2012. Calculation of seasonal indices by method of simple average for Gold. Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2008. Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2009 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2010 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2011 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2012 Calculation of seasonal indices by moving average method Calculation of Seasonal indices by method of least square for Gold PAGE NO

LIST OF CHARTS S.NO 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 CHARTS Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2008. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2009. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2010. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2011. Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2012. Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2008. Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2009 Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2010 Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2011 Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2012 PAGE NO

INTRODUCTION The study focus on ANALYTICAL STUDY ON PRICE

FLUCTUATION OF GOLD MARKET IN INTERNATIONAL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO TOKYO INFO SOLUTION an attempted made to evaluate the basic trading practices in gold market. The study is based on secondary data, which was obtained by scheduled method. This study will help the gold market to determine analysis price variations of investors. From a study determine price variation in gold market. GOLD INVESTMENT IN INDIA Until 1990, the Gold Control Act forbade the private holding of gold bars in India. There was physical investment in smuggled ten tola bars, but it was limited and often amounted to keeping a few bars ready to be made into jewellery for a family wedding. Gold investment essentially was in 22 carat jewellery. RESERVE BANK OF INDIA Since 1990, investment in small bars, both imported ten tolas and locallymade small bars, which have proliferated from local refineries, has increased substantially. GFMS estimate that investment has exceeded 100 tonnes (3.2 million oz) in some years, although it is hard to segregate true investment from stocks held by the 16,000 or more gold dealers spread across India. Certainly gold has been used to conceal wealth, especially during the mid-1990s, when the local rupee price increased steadily. It was also augmented in 1998 when over 40 tonnes (1.3 million oz) of gold from bonds originally issued by the Reserve Bank of India were restituted to the public. In the cities, however, gold has to compete with the stock market, investment in internet industries, and a wide range of consumer goods. In the rural areas 22 carat jewellery remains the basic investment.
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THE GOLD DEPOSIT SCHEME The government announced a new initiative in its 1999/2000 budget to tap the hoard of private gold in India by permitting commercial ba nks to take gold deposits of bars, coins or jewellery against payment of interest. Interest levels can be set by each bank, and deposits must be for three to seven years. Interest and any capital gains on the gold will be exempt from tax. The banks can lend the gold to local fabricators or sell it in the Indian market or to local banks. However, the depositor has to declare the origin of the gold, so that metal bought illegally to hide wealth cannot be deposited. The State Bank of India was the first to accept deposits. To date, the amount of gold collected under this scheme (less than 10 tonnes or 0.32 million) has fallen well short of the 100 tonnes (3.2 million) that was mentioned when it was launched. INDIAN GOLD MARKET Indians have a huge fascination for gold. This is evident in the fact that India is the largest consumer as well as importer of gold in the world. Gold plays a very important role in the social, religious and cultural life of Indians. India Gold Market looks poised to achieve greater heights given the fascination for gold in the country. India consumes about 800 MT of gold which accounts to about 20% consumption of gold globally. More than 50% of this is used for making gold jewelry. Invest Today to Earn Maximum Interest from the Gold Market! Superior, Cutting Edge Automated Systems Will Make the Right. Benefits of investing Earn interest within hours Use the knowledge of experienced currency investors No previous expertise required
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 Web-based no download necessary Advanced strategy management capabilities Customise your portfolio to your preferred settings 23 hour investments make profits even when you are away from your computer SIZE OF INDIA GOLD MARKET The domestic India gold market is estimated to be more than US$15 billion and is expected to rise significantly in the coming years. During April 2008 to February 2009, gems and jewelry worth US$ 17.79 billion was exported from the country. United Arab Emirates imported more than 30% of gems and jewelry from India, making it the largest importer from the country. Hong Kong was the second largest importer with 25% followed by United States with 20%. The gem and jewelry industry accounts for more than 10% of India's total commodities exports. Objectives of gold fluctuation To review the fluctuation in the gold prices. To review the factors that affects the gold prices. To calculate the Compound Growth Rate and then forecast for the year 2015. To review whether international review of gold reserve (foreign exchange reserve) affects the gold prices or not. Data Analysis- Growth Rate Growth rate chart

Price of gold and gold reserves Analysis

GOLD CERTIFICATION IN INDIA:

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The government has taken steps to protect the public from buying adulterated gold; Hallmarking of gold jewelry is one such step. Hallmarking of gold jewelry indicates the accurate finding out and official recording of the proportionate content of precious metals present in gold. The marking is done either by laser marking machine or by punches. Hallmark is the official mark used in several countries across the world as an assurance of purity or fineness of gold jewelry. The Bureau of Indian Standard or BIS was named by the Government as the lone agency in the country for providing hallmarking of gold jewelry under the provisions of the BIS Act, 1986. INDIAN STANDARDS ON GOLD AND GOLD ALLOY:

IS 1417 Grades of gold and gold alloys, Jewelry/Artefacts-Fineness and Marking IS 1418 Assaying of Gold in Gold Bullion, Gold alloys and Gold Jewelry/ Artefacts - Cupellation (Fire Assay Method) IS 2790 Guidelines for manufacture of 23, 22,21,18,14 and 9 carat gold alloys IS 3095 Gold Solders for use in manufacture of Jewelry

FEATURES OF INDIAN GOLD MARKET: Though India is the leading consumer of gold in the world, the gold market in India is largely fragmented and unorganized. Due to the nonavailability of a benchmark price, the gold prices in India vary very much from region to region. The festive and the wedding season in the country witnesses a heavy demand for gold. Despite the global economic recession, the gold consumption in the country during these times has not abetted. FACTORS AFFECTING INDIAN GOLD MARKET: The monsoons and the harvest of the country have a significant affect on the sale and purchase of gold in the country. Both these factors determine the
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amount of purchasing power that people will have, which in turn decides on the amount of gold consumption and other consumptions as well. Purchasing gold and other precious metals on occasions like Akshaya Tritiya is considered to be auspicious. RECENT HIKE IN EXCISE AND IMPORT DUTY: India is the largest importer of gold in the world. India has imported $45.5 billion worth of gold and silver in first three quarters of FY12 itself, which is 53.8% over the year-ago period. A government notification said customs and excise duties would be levied on the value of gold and silver instead of a fixed amount in January 2012. The move is aimed at reducing the negative balance of payments position as gold and silver imports have grown tremendously in-spite of rise in its prices. CHARACTERISTICS OF GOLD Gold is the most malleable and ductile of all metals; a single gram can be beaten into a sheet of 1 square meter, or an ounce into 300 square feet. Gold leaf can be beaten thin enough to become transparent. The transmitted light appears greenish blue, because gold strongly reflects yellow and red. Such semi-transparent sheets also strongly reflect infrared light, making them useful as infrared (radiant heat) shields in visors of heat-resistant suits, and in sunvisors for spacesuits. Gold readily creates alloys with many other metals. These alloys can be produced to modify the hardness and other metallurgical properties, to control melting point or to create exotic colors (see below). Gold is a good conductor of heat and electricity and reflects infrared radiation strongly. Chemically, it is unaffected by air, moisture and most corrosive reagents, and is therefore well suited for use in coins and jewelry and as a protective coating on other, more reactive, metals. However, it is not chemically inert.
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Common oxidation states of gold include +1 (gold (I) or aurous compounds) and +3 (gold (III) or auric compounds). Gold ions in solution are readily reduced and precipitated out as gold medal by adding any other metal as the reducing agent. The added metal is oxidized and dissolves allowing the gold to be displaced from solution and be recovered as a solid precipitate. High quality pure metallic gold is tasteless and scentless; in keeping with its resistance to corrosion (it is metal ions which confer taste to metals. In addition, gold is very dense, a cubic meter weighing 19,300 kg. By comparison, the density of lead is 11,340 kg/m3, and that of the densest element, osmium, is 22,610 kg/m3. COMPARE SUPPLY AND DEMAND STATISTICS WITH

ESTIMATED LOANED GOLD LEVELS: According to the GFMS Gold Survey 2005 on levels of central bank loans in the gold market: Since official lending peaked in 1999, when according to our estimates it exceeded 4,700 tonnes, the quantity provided to the market from central banks swaps and deposits has fallen sharply. Indeed, we calculate that in 2005 official lending fell by a further 470 tonnes, with the outstanding total no more than 2,970 tonnes by year end. To put these levels of estimated gold loans in perspective, compare the numbers of 4,700 tonnes* (151 million ounces of gold) and 2,970 tonnes (95 million oz.) with other figures used by GFMS in calculating totals in the gold market: Jewelry demand in 2005 was 2,700 tonnes (87 million) Annual mine production has averaged roughly 2,500 tonnes in the last decade (80 million) Net world investment in 2005 was 736 tonnes (23 million) Official central bank sales in 2005 totaled 656 tonnes (21 million)
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In other words, there is more loaned gold estimated to be in the market throughout the year than comes from annual mine production, investment demand, or jewelry demand, yet the market does not reflect its impact because it is not accurately or completely reported. Also, GFMS is using a snapshot approach to explaining a gold loan market that changes on a daily basis. GFMS estimates loan levels at one specific point in the year, then state that the target is a constantly moving one, essentially wiping out the usefulness of their own work in estimating loaned gold levels. HISTORICAL GOLD PRICES The price of gold remained remarkably stable for long periods of time. For example, Sir Isaac Newton, as master of the U.K. Mint, set the gold price at L3.17s. 10d. per troy ounce in 1717, and it remained effectively the same for two hundred years until 1914. The only exception was during the Napoleonic wars from 1797 to 1821. The official U.S. Government gold price has changed only four times from 1792 to the present. Starting at $19.75 per troy ounce, raised to $20.67 in 1834, and $35 in 1934. In 1972, the price was raised to $38 and then to $42.22 in 1973. A two-tiered pricing system was created in 1968, and the market price for gold has been free to fluctuate since then as the table below shows. YEAR 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 AVERAGE PRICE 383.51 362.11 343.82 359.77 384.00 383.79 387.81 331.02 294.24 278.98 279.11 271.04
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Price of the Gold

309.73 363.38 409.72 444.74 603.46 695.39 871.96 972.35 1,224.53 1,571.52

Like other precious metals, gold is measured by troy weight and by grams. When it is alloyed with other metals the term carat or karat is used to indicate the purity of gold present, with 24 carats being pure gold and lower ratings proportionally less. The purity of a gold bar or coin can also be expressed as a decimal figure ranging from 0 to 1, known as the millesimal fineness, such as 0.995 being very pure. The price of gold is determined through trading in the gold and derivatives markets, but a procedure known as the Gold Fixing in London, originating in September 1919, provides a daily benchmark price to the industry. The afternoon fixing was introduced in 1968 to provide a price when US markets are open. Historically gold coinage was widely used as currency; when paper money was introduced, it typically was a receipt redeemable for gold coin or bullion. In a monetary system known as the gold standard, a certain weight of gold was given the name of a unit of currency. For a long period, the United States government set the value of the US dollar so that one troy ounce was equal to $20.67 ($664.56/kg), but in 1934 the dollar was devalued to $35.00 per troy ounce ($1125.27/kg). By 1961, it was becoming hard to maintain this
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price, and a pool of US and European banks agreed to manipulate the market to prevent further currency devaluation against increased gold demand On March 17, 1968, economic circumstances caused the collapse of the gold pool, and a two-tiered pricing scheme was established whereby gold was still used to settle international accounts at the old $35.00 per troy ounce ($1.13/g) but the price of gold on the private market was allowed to fluctuate; this two-tiered pricing system was abandoned in 1975 when the price of gold was left to find its free-market level. Central banks still hold historical gold reserves as a store of value although the level has generally been declining. The largest gold depository in the world is that of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank in New York, which holds about 3%of the gold ever mined, as does the similarly laden U.S. Bullion Depository at Fort Knox. In 2005 the World Gold Council estimated total global gold supply to be 3,859 tonnes and demand to be 3,754 tonnes, giving a surplus of 105 tonnes. Since 1968 the price of gold has ranged widely, from a high of $850/oz ($27,300/kg) on January 21, 1980, to a low of $252.90/oz ($8,131/kg) on June 21, 1999 (London Gold Fixing). The period from 1999 to 2001 marked the "Brown Bottom" after a 20-year bear market. Prices increased rapidly from 1991, but the 1980 high was not exceeded until January 3, 2008 when a new maximum of $865.35 per troy ounce was set. Another record price was set on March 17, 2008 at $1023.50/oz ($32,900/kg). In late 2009, gold markets experienced renewed momentum upwards due to increased demand and a weakening US dollar. On December 2, 2009, Gold passed the important barrier of US$1200 per ounce to close at $1215. Gold further rallied hitting new highs in May 2010 after the European Union debt crisis prompted further purchase of gold as a safe asset. On March 1, 2011, gold hit a new all-time high of $1432.57, based on investor concerns regarding ongoing unrest in North Africa as well as in the Middle East.
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Since April 2001 the gold price has more than quintupled in value against the US dollar, hitting a new all-time high of $1,913.50 on August 23, 2011, prompting speculation that this long secular bear market has ended and a bull market has returned. Types of gold ETF 1. Gold ETFs That Contain Gold Products The nice thing about gold ETFs is that you can invest in gold without actually buying gold doubloons and storing them in the attic safe. Gold ETFs like IAU and GLD, track the performance of gold by including gold products like bullions in a trust that is used to cover the liabilities of the fund on an asneeded basis. 2. Gold ETFs That Contain Gold Futures Some types of gold ETFs are constructed differently to track the performance of gold. Gold ETF like DGL consists of derivatives like futures, forwards, and options in order to emulate a gold index. This same construction strategy is not limited to gold ETFs, but used for many commodity ETFs as well. 3. Gold Industry ETFs Another type of gold ETF consists of companies in the gold industry. Like a sector ETF, this type of gold ETF will track companies that heavily rely on gold as their core business. For example, GDX tracks the performance of the Amex Gold Miners Index which consists of companies in the gold mining industry. 4. Gold ETNs While similar, there are differences between an ETF and an ETN. However, the nice thing is that there are both gold ETFs and gold ETNs, so an investor has a choice if he or she prefers one over the other. An example of gold ETN is DGP which tracks the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index - Optimum Yield Gold Excess Return. 5. More Than Gold ETFs
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There is no doubt that gold is a popular commodity and the most common precious metal. However, if an investor is looking for exposure to more than one precious metal like silver or platinum, then there are types of gold ETFs than include multiple metal products. A precious metal ETF like DBP, the Power Shares DB Precious Metals ETF may be a good fit for a portfolio looking for other precious metals tied to its gold investments. 6. Short Gold ETFs Acting like an inverse ETF, a short gold ETF is uniquely constructed to inversely track the performance of a gold ETF index. For example, when you purchase the GLL, you earn a profit as the index drops in price. So when you buy the ETF, it acts as if you sold the gold ETF. Perfect for investors who want to short gold, but has account or margin restrictions that prevent them from selling an ETF. With a nice selection of gold ETFs, an investor can reap the benefits of ETFs including the tax advantages. So, it may be time for gold investors to get started with exchange traded funds.

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CHAPTER II CONCEPTS AND REVIEW OF LITERATURE The growth rate of commodity market is positive and statistically highly significant. A positive and non-significant growth rate is recorded this period. The highest growth rate is recorded in balasore district (11.01per cent) during the period. Thus, marine fish landing in all the maritime districts have increased. Referred from the project titled An Economic Analysis of commodity market in India.this topic was done by mr.dr. dibakarnaik in the year 2006. Particularly, in commodity market there are plenty of unutilized resource (bronze) which are not tapped up fully due to inadequate investment. The investor of the commodity need not feel that there is no generation of surplus in profit. The surplus generated in it would be far better than agriculture whose developed had started a century ago. Referred from research report A Comparative study between commodity(gold, silver and bronze) by Mr.mantogotsi. The price trend to rise continuously be 10.58 indices and 8.05 indices per year respectively for bigger and smaller categories of investor. The rise in price is highest in balasoredistrict (15.48) and in puri district (13.42) respectively for bigger and smaller categories of investors. Mr. Peter Alfred has done research on the following topic Investor investment decision based on price fluctuation of the gold in gold market. In 1998 Mr. parasuram has done project regarding Higher fluctuating commodity in indian market

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He has concluded that the price of the gold fluctuated more widely than other commodities. People are not aware of the benefits of trading in gold so lots need to be done in this direction they generally prefers safe & risk less investment avenue. Some people have fear of stock market in their mind. Referred from M.s Palanvidhi management student who had done a project regarding, To know about satisfaction level of investors with their broking firm. A study of commodity (gold) market in India this was the topic done by Ms.poonamgupta student ofS. k. school of business management(Gujarat) In this project she has conclude that. the focus today gas to be on how the gold markets need to be organized. With futures trading being introduced in most commodities it is not a good idea to have future trading without an effective guaranteeing mechanism. Mr.TRIVEDI KARTIK DINESHCHANDERA student of GUJARAT UNIVERSITY has done a project titled WHAT MATTERS TO COMMODITY MARKET : IS IT SCALE OR IS GROWTH he has concluded that Any fluctuation in foreign market has more effect on Indian stock market than that of domestic market and in the given volatile economic conditions, the market is efficient to any news and information. Volatility in Indian gold marketthis was project title done by Mr. BIBIN JOHNhe has finally stated that Apart from increasing the stability of market, various factor in the farm of sector can better manage their activities in an environment of unstable prices through gold markets. These markets serve a risk-shifting function, and can be used to lock in prices instead of relying on uncertain price developments.
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RECENT TRENDS IN GOLD MARKET This topic was done by Mr.ROHIT student of ICFAI Delhi. In this project he has concluded That Positive economic growth and strong foreign inflows were two of the many factor that have propelled the indianbourse in past three years (2009-2011). We do think that the economic is at the early stages of development and with infrastructure growth underway, the Indian economy is likely to continue to do well in the next 5 years. People still considering that to invest in gold market is very risky and considering gold market for speculation rather than business purpose. The whole industry is highly sensitive towards national and internationals environmental and political factors Mr.Barathsing has explained clearly in his project titled A Final report on commodity market Capital Market (February 2006), published an article Strong volume growth state that the Raw Material cost (as a percentage of sales net of stock adjustment) decrease from 72 % to 70 %, staff cost from 4 % to 3 % and other expenditure from 10 % to 9 %, it increased the profit to the manufacturers in Two Wheeler industry. Meaning and Objectives of commodity futures A commodity futures contract is a contractual agreement between two parties to buy or sell a specified quantity and quality of commodity at a certain time in future at a certain price agreed at the time of entering into the contract on the commodity futures exchange. Objectives and benefits of commodity futures are as follows Hedging - price risk management by risk mitigation Speculation - take advantage of favourable price movements Leverage - pay low margin to enjoy large exposure Liquidity - ease of entry and exit of market
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 Price discovery - for taking farming and business decisions Price stabilization along with balancing demand and supply position -Facilitates integrated price structure Flexibility, certainty and transparency in purchasing commodities facilitate bank financing Facilitates 'informed' lending by the banks The primary objectives for any futures exchange are effective price discovery and efficient price risk management. In commodity futures, it is necessary to distinguish between investment commodities and consumption commodities. An investment commodity is generally held for investment purposes whereas consumption commodities are held mainly for consumption purposes. Gold and Silver can be classified as investment commodities whereas oil and steel can be classified as consumption commodities. Difference between Cash and Future market Cash market is the market for buying and selling physical commodity at a negotiated price. Delivery of the commodity takes place immediately. Futures market is the market for buying and selling standardized contract of the commodity at a pre-determined price. Delivery of the commodity takes place during a future delivery period of the contract if the option of delivery is exercised. Difference between Futures and Forward contract By Definition: Futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell a specified quantity and quality of asset at a certain time in future at a certain price agreed at the time of entering into the contract on the futures exchange.

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Forward contract is an agreement entered between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a future date for an agreed price. Forward contract is not traded on an exchange. Trading place: Futures contract is entered on the centralized trading platform of the exchange. Forward contract is OTC in nature. Size of the contract: Futures contract is standardized in terms of quantity and quality as specified by the exchange. Size of the forward contract is customized as per the terms of agreement between the buyer and seller. Transparency in contract price: Contract price of futures contract is transparent as it is available on the centralized trading screen of the exchange. Contract price of forward contract is not transparent, as it is not publicly disclosed. Valuation of open position and margin requirement: In case of futures contract, valuation of open position is calculated as per the official closing price on a daily basis and Mark-to-Market margin requirement exists. In case of forward contract, valuation of open position is not calculated on a daily basis and there is no provision of Mark-to-Market margin requirement. Liquidity: Futures contract is more liquid as it is traded on the Exchange. Forward contract is less liquid due to its customized nature and mutual trade. Counter party risk: In futures contract the Clearing House becomes a counter party to each transaction, which is called Novation, making counter party risk nil. In forward contract, counter party risk is high due to decentralized nature of the transaction.
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Regulations: Futures contract is regulated by a government regulatory authority and the Exchange. Forward contract, is not regulated by any authority or exchange.. Settlement: Futures contract can be settled in cash or physical delivery, depending on the commodity futures contract specification. Forward contract is generally settled by physical delivery. Delivery: Delivery tendered in case of futures contract should be of a standard quantity and quality as per contract specifications, at designated delivery centres of the Exchange. Delivery in case of forward contract is carried out at delivery centre specified in customized bilateral agreement. Participants in Commodity derivatives: Hedgers: Hedgers are interested in transferring risk associated with transacting or carrying underlying physical asset. Speculators: Speculators are interested in making money by taking a view on future price movements. Commodity futures allow speculators to create high leveraged positions to undertake calculative risk, with the objective of correctly predicting the market movement. Arbitragers: Arbitragers are interested in locking in a minimum risk profit by simultaneously entering into transactions in two or more markets. Arbitragers lock in profit when they spot cash and carry arbitrage opportunity; or reverse cash and carry arbitrage opportunity.

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CHAPTER - III PROFILE OF THE STUDY AREA COMPANY PROFILE INTER PAN PACIFICA HOLDINGS Inter pan pacific holdings, which have shown its dynamic growth throughout its history, and have risen to become one of Indonesias most in Optative in global markets business. Since 60s, inter pan pacific holdings initially deal in manufacturing of industrial batteries, and utilizing international expertise and technology operated by highly experienced local and international staffs to give the best products to our customers and have maintained healthy growth since. It doesnt stop there, along with presenting new opportunities, in 70s our group involves and leads in many successful business deals, including sands excavation, building materials, housing developing, export-import, plywood and woodworking in a variety of markets worldwide with our excellent quality, and also a financial markets business with first-class services. As an appointed strong holding company for several potentials customers, we uphold an outstanding reputation, and with strong capabilities matched with high standards of professionalism, we aim to b4 trusted as the one of the top corporate in many our business dealings, including in our finical markets business, because for us trust is the main essential of any business transaction. Then come in the 80s inter pan pacific holdings, as a leading provider of financial markets, has taken concrete steps even during the difficult times to maintain sustainable growth. Inter pan pacific holding has been consistently recognized for its ability to deliver a comprehensive range of products solution, and we are proud our holdings has positioned herself well to respond flexibly and creatively with our worldwide branches that can be found both in Indonesia as our base, as well as in international cities. Indonesia: Jakarta, Surabaya,
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Medan, Bandung, Bogor, Solo, Semarang and Kendari. Overseas branches: United Kingdom, British, Taiwan, Philippines, India and Thailand. We have operation in all major financial centers as well as strong presence in South East Asia, Middle East, Europe and America.

VISION & MISSION To transform inter pan pacific holdings into one of Indonesias leading multi business and financial institution with international standards, and gives back something of value to the country. With strong capabilities matched by high standards of professionalism, we aim to be trusted as a corporate that respond to the diverse of stakeholders, including shareholders, customers, business partners, and employees. Offering our exceptional products and services, our shareholders enjoy our exceptional turnover and financial performance and our devoted staffs maintain the historical hallmark of our financial strengths and prudence, positioning our self to lead the next phase of growth for these industrial and financial markets sectors.

MEMBERSHIP PROFILE Tokyo info solution is one of the part of inter pan pacific holding, the INTER PAN PASIFIK HOLDING is Indonesia company, they have companies in twelve countries including India, the pan pacific company is doing various services like India Tata company. Tokyo info solution is a financial market services and consultant and advisor of company, its free cost of providing to join INTER PAN PASIFIK holding and get a benefit. As per SEBI norms CSE charges an initial deposit of Rs. 2 lacks from each of its members. Based on the volume of trade each member is to
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contribute additional deposits. Here no subscription charge by every trade they will charge such commission based on buy and sell. They are allowed to appoint their assistants or sub-brokers based on the guidelines given by SEBI. ABOUT TOKYO INFO SOLUTION Tokyo Info Solutions advises schemes, targeting an investor base of non-institutional investors including high net-worth individuals, and institutional investors & corporate houses. Tokyo Info Solutions offer its customers a wide range of equity related services including trade execution on BSE, NSE, and Derivatives, Online trading, Investment advice, Commodities, etc. The Tokyo Info Solutions business attributes its success to constantly listening to investors and responding to their needs with innovative investor friendly products. Tokyo Info Solutions believes that it has the ability to recognize investment opportunities, which help raise capital and deploy the same in a manner designed to maximize long-term value.

VISION To be forward in thinking and in action in the delivery of investment solutions to Tokyo Info Solutions Clients To be a truly active manager of innovative and thoughtful investment themes, with a focus on adding value to their wealth to enhance exit valuations on behalf of investors to provide a long term, innovative & sustainable platform to the clients in which the interests of Tokyo Info solutions staff, stakeholders stake-holders & investors & staff, are truly aligned. To provide a positive and motivating workplace environment where the employees achieve intellectual, practical and overall career growth to be India's
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premier wealth management consultant & Advisory; provide strategic and operational support to our business partners; and deliver consistent superior returns to our investors. To build a new wealth paradigm based on strategic and operational support to our business partners to be known for creating and managing innovative market leading products tailored to Indian markets & globally.

MISSION Since each successful clients decision & every smiling investor only pushes the group to set newer & higher targets for achievement, the name Tokyo Info Solutions was chosen as it symbolizes passing every conquered achievement and setting the next one as the new target With every fund closing beyond set benchmarks, Tokyo info solutions strives to reach & surpass the next milestone in wealth management excellence.

TRAINING AND SERVICES We are a group of professionals and believe in working in a manner that is ethical, professional and straightforward. We take immense pride in the professional quality of our work. We are a professionally managed business house and are not aligned or bear allegiance to any corporate group. We believe in upholding and creating world class standards of corporate governance.
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 We are uncompromising in including the highest degree of honesty and integrity in all our actions. We want to partner with professional individuals and organizations who we believe have the requisite experience & expertise in the sectors we invest in We base our entire work on the values of Integrity, Collaboration, Professionalism, Independence and Trust.

The Quality Management System (QMS) Established at Tokyo Info Solutions is laid on the concept of process methodology approach and accordingly all the process is identified. To ensure that the processes are monitored, measured and performance is analyzed, process quantifiers are established through Business Operating System. The QMS is controlled by effective documentation and ongoing monitoring of Top Management. THE STATEMENT OF QUALITY POLICY MENTION BELOW:

Tokyo Info Solutions India Private Limited, its affiliates & joint ventures strive to meet & exceed Customer Satisfaction across all their businesses, through a system of transparent dealing & information flow.

With a view to meet all necessary Industry Standards & applicable Legal & Regulatory benchmarks, Tokyo Info Solutions combines its human & technical resources in the most innovative manner, in order to provide world class quality services in all areas of its operations and continually improving the effectiveness of the quality management system .

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Tokyo Info Solutions aims to achieve and sustain market leadership in the area of alternative asset investment advisory services.

MANAGEMENT OF TOKYO INFO SOLUTION The policy level Management of Tokyo info solution is vested with the council of management. The council of management is constituted with 13 members of whom 6 are elected from among the members of Tokyo info solution 2 persons nominated by EBI, one government and three public representatives. The council of management appoints Executive Director and is an ex-office member of the council. The operations of any Stock Exchange can commerce only with the recognition of the central government under the securities contract regulation act, (SCR) 1956. The various regulations concerning the listing of companies and the trading related activities are provided under SCR rules, 1957, the byelaws of the exchange give guidelines on opening / closing of TOKYO INFO SOLUTION ,timing of trading, regulation of badla or carryover business, fixation, of margins, making of prices, arbitration settlement of dispute

WEALTH MANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY As various sectors driven by consumer consumption continue to grow at a rapid pace, Tokyo info solutions strives to be a truly active manager of investments, which significantly enhances the chances of success of the portfolio companies and project Investment teams at Tokyo Info Solutions apply their experience in hands on way to ensure that investors interests and objectives are vigorously pursued in all situations. They are focused on
30

identifying new complementary investment strategies and opportunities across various sectors. Tokyo Info Solutions seeks to have a platform which investors within India and across the globe trust to deliver consistently high returns through a stringent selection process and a high quality nurturing team. This unique combination is the basis for building market leading and sustainable businesses, which will benefit Tokyo Info Solutions clients in the long term. Tokyo Info Solutions prides itself for the list and quality of clients, investors, investments and strives to be the leader in corporate governance and communication transparency with all stakeholders. As it expands its investments platform, Tokyo Info Solutions believes that its reputation & market position will lead to newer complementary investment strategies and opportunities across various sectors

WEALTH MANAGEMENT NUTURING The differentiating aspect of Tokyo Info Solutions investment management style is to build long term profitable returns on investments through Investment Nurturing. Moving from a pure financing model to an investing model, fund managers at Tokyo Info Solutions work closely with investee companies to provide strategic/operational inputs in helping to grow the entity. Continuous monitoring of operations & finances of portfolio companies, strengthening systems, controls & corporate governance in line with best practices help in garnering returns even during recessionary time.

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ORGANZATION STUCTURE OF TOKYO INFO SOLUTION

DEPARTMENTS Finance department Administration department Marketing department Surveillance Legal department System department

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INDUSTRY PROFILE The origin of the stock market relates back to the year 1494, when the Amsterdam Stock Exchange was set up. In India it dates back to the 18 th century and era when the East India Company was a dominant Institution in India. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was founded in the year 1875. About 150 brokers formed the Ahmedabad Shares and Stock Association on 15 June 1908. In the year 1920, one stock exchange was established in Northern India and one in Madras called The Madras Stock Exchange. The Madras Stock Exchange Association Pvt Ltd. was established in the year 1941. On 29 th April 1959, it was reorganized as a company limited by guarantee under the name and style of madras Stock Exchange (MSE). The Lahore Stock Exchange was formed in the year 1934. However in the year after the Punjab Stock Exchange Ltd came into existence, the Lahore Stock Exchange merged with it. In Calcutta, a second Stock Exchange by the name The Bengal Share& Stock Exchange Ltd. Was established in the year 1937 and likewise once again in the year 1938, Bombay also witnessed a rival Stock Exchange formed in the name of Indian Stock Exchange ltd, the U.P. The Hyderabad Stock Exchange Ltd. Was incorporated in the year 1944. Subsequently the Bangalore stock exchange was registered in the year 1957 and recognized in the year 1963. The third Stock exchange in the state of Gujarat the Vadodara Stock Exchange Ltd was incorporated in 1990.

STOCK EXCHANGES IN INDIA 1. Ahmedabad stock exchange 2. Bangalore stock exchanges 3. Bhubaneswar stock exchange
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4. Bombay stock exchange 5. Calcutta stock exchange 6. Cochin stock exchange 7. Coimbatore stock exchange 8. Delhi stock exchange 9. Hyderabad stock exchange 10. Indore stock exchange 11. Kanpur stock exchange 12. Ludhiana stock exchange 13. Madras stock exchange 14. NSE 15. OTCEI

OVER THE COUNTER EXCHAGE OF INDIA Promoted by a consortium of leading Financial Institutions of India including Unit Trust of India (UTI), Industrial Credit & Investment Corporation of India (ICICI), Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI), Industrial Financial Corporation of India (IFCI), Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and others, OTCEI is a recognized stock Exchange under the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. It is set up to provide small and medium sized companies access to the capital markets and to investors a convenient mode of investments. It is ring less electronic national exchange listing an entirely new set of companies which companies will not be listed on other stock exchanges. The companies listed on any other exchanges cannot be listed on OTCEI. The OTCEI Exchange can list companies with issued capital from Rs. 30lakhs to Rs.25 cores.
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THE BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE Nine Elected Directors ( one-third of which retire every year by rotation), and Executive Director, three Government Nominees, a Reserve Bank of India Nominee and five public representatives constitute the Governing Board of this Exchange which regulates the Exchange and decides its policies. A president, a Vice president and Hon. Treasurer are annually elected from among the elected Directors by the governing Board following the election of Directors. The Executive Director as the Chief Executive Officer is responsible for the day-to-day administration of the Exchange.

THE NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE (NSE) The National Stock Exchange considered as arrival exchange to the Bombay Stock Exchange is Indias leading Stock Exchange covering more than 160cities and towns across the country. It provides a modern fully computerized trading system designed to offer investors across the length and breadth of the country a safe and easy way to invest or liquidate investment in securities. It was incorporated in November 1992, recognized as a Stock Exchange in April 1993, went live for debt markets in June 1994 and commenced capital Market Operations in November 1994. Today it is the largest exchange in India with a network that trades 1400 equity stocks and 500 debt securities.

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CHAPTER - IV RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Research methodology explains how research is done scientifically. Research methodology considers the logic behind the methods used in the context of research and explains what particular technique has been used for the purpose of analysis.

Statement of the problem To analyze the price variations of the Gold in Commodity market for the particular time period. It is beneficial to the investor, when the investor invest in gold market.

NEED FOR STUDY This study aims at investigating the current price trend in the gold market. This study is aimed at helping the originations to reduce the risk of loss to customers by providing detailed information about the price variation in the market. In the present scenario the volatility in the market has increased a lot investor requires a mechanism to protect themselves from various kinds of risk price fluctuation of gold and counterpart risk. This study helps in providing the report on the price fluctuation of gold.

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 To provide adequate information regarding the market volatility to their clients so as to safeguard them from huge loss. OBJECTIVES FOR THE STUDY: PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: To find out the price variations of gold in commodity market for the past five years. SECONDARY OBJECTIVES: 1) To find out the fluctuations in supply and demand on either the international market in relation with price and or availability of gold. 2) To find out unexpected changes which have undesirable effects on gold market. 3) To measure the trend analysis and seasonal indices. 4) To find out the effectiveness of price and brokers interventions on gold. SCOPE OF THE STUDY: A commodity may be defined as an article, a product or material that is bought and sold. It can be classified as every kind of movable property, except Actionable Claims Money and Securities. Gold future are contracts in permitted gold entered in to through a recognized gold market and where the settlement is done at the maturity date either through delivery of the goods or by cash. Moreover it also helps in the discovery of future as well as current prices. This in turn increases the savings and investments in the long run. This study may increase the volume traded in markets because of participation of Riskaverse people in greater numbers. This study offers, the investors an easy, hassle free trading experience ,whether trading is done daily or occasionally the originations can keep in

37

touch with the customer by sending regular tips and update regarding the market situation, this study will also be required for such things. This study provides worth full reports to the investors so that one can take the right investment decisions regardless of their investing preferences. Every investors attitude regarding price are different, this research helps the organization in fulfilling those attitude. Particularly, in gold market there are plenty of unutilized resources (Bronze) which are not tapped up fully due to inadequate investment, People are not aware of the benefits of trad ing in derivatives so lots need to be done in this direction they generally prefers safe & risk less investment avenue. Some people have fear of stock market in their mind; this study helps in transferring risk from risk aware people to risk oriented people. Altogether this study helps the organization to provide better customer satisfaction and build up better competitive strategy in the present market scenario. TYPES OF RESEARCH: ANALYTICAL RESEARCH The researcher has to use facts or information already available and analyze that fact to make a critical evaluation of the financial performance. Tools for Data collection: In this study secondary data collection method has been used to collect data. Secondary data: Secondary data refers to the information or facts already collected. Such data are collected. Such data are collected with the objective of understanding the past status of any variable or the data collected and the reported by some source is accessed and used for the objective of a study. In this project all the details and datas are collected secondary data only.

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Source and method of data collection The data utilized for the study was obtained through secondary data. The data was extracted from the Tokyo info solution trading reports.

4.6 TOOLS USED FOR ANALYSIS The major tools used in this analysis were Trend analysis. Method of moving average Method of least square Seasonal indices. TREND ANALYSIS Trend analysis is used to find out the fluctuations or movements by nature by nature in order to predict the future. We have used two methods of trend analysis METHOD OF MOVING AVERAGE Moving average is simple device of reducing fluctuations and obtaining trend values with a fair accuracy. METHOD OF LEAST SQUARE This is the best method of obtaining the trend values. It provides a convenient basis for obtaining the line of best fit in series. SEASONAL INDICES Seasonal indices refer to such movements in a time series which are due to forces which a rhythmic in nature and which repeat themselves periodically in every season.
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4.7 Limitations of the study The primary data collected is restricted only to Tokyo info solution. The major concern of research was the project duration which was only 6 month. This was insufficient to cover the various area at stipulated time. The major limitation of the study is that the datas are mostly secondary in nature as it is taken from Tokyo info solution. Data only for 6 months has been analyzed. As the gold market fluctuates now and then the forecasting may not be correct for future. It is difficult to know the future movements of gold market as only data for 6 month has been analyzed.

The major limitation is that the gold market fluctuates according to the present worlds condition, so cannot be analyzed accurately.

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CHAPTER - IV ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETAION OF DATA Analysis and interpretation are central steps in the research process. The goal of analysis is to summaries the collected data in such a way that they provide answers to the question that triggered the research. Interpretation is the search for the broader meaning of research findings. This search has two major aspects. First, there is the effort to establish continuity in social research through linking the results of one study with those of another secondly, interpretation leads to the establishment of explanatory concepts. Through interpretation, the meanings and implications of the study become clear, Analysis is not complete with out interpretation and interpretation cannot proceed without analysis. Both are thus, Interdependent. In fact Interpretation can be conceived of as a part of analysis. It is the task of interpretation to find out a link (or) a position of the study in the whole analytical framework, it connects the findings with the established theories (or) the available stock of knowledge in a particular area of research. Although, chronologically, analysis and interpretation occupy the last stage of the research process they occupy the first stage since the necessary theoretical and practical knowledge of the future shape of the result is acquired much before the actual work is undertaken. Jahada and cook have defined it in the following words. Scientific interpretation seeks for relationship between the data of a study and between the study findings and other scientific knowledge. Interpretation is by no means a Mechanical process it calls for a critical Examination of the results of ones analysis in the light of all the limitations of his data gathering. It is very important step in the total procedure of research.

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TABLE 5.1: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2008 Date Open 1 833.5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total AVG 0 925.9 0 973.2 0 915.5 0 876.7 0 887.0 0 926.2 0 913.2 0 833.2 0 871.6 0 726.7 0 818.4 0 High 936.40 975.90 1032.3 0 952.60 935.10 935.20 988.30 917.00 926.40 931.60 830.50 890.20 Low 833.4 0 884.3 0 904.8 0 862.4 0 844.9 0 857.4 0 893.9 0 772.9 0 736.2 0 681.8 0 699.7 0 741.0 0 10542.9 0 878.58 1038.54 86.55 1098.79 91.57 Close 926.00 972.30 915.60 876.60 886.70 924.70 914.40 830.70 878.60 743.10 814.50 879.70 Fixed trend Moving trend 0 0 105.00 98.88 94.67 95.76 99.860 98.75 89.71 94.88 78.09 87.96 95.00 105.00 94.17 95.74 101.15 104.29 98.89 90.85 105.76 82.30 112.64 108.00

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43

CHART NO 5.1: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2008

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

fixed trend

moving trend

INFERENCE: From the above table it is inferred that in fixed trend prices starts at 105.00 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 95.00. This shows a decreasing trend. On the other trend in moving average its starts at 105.00 and fluctuates but at last it close at 108.00. It is shows the volatility situation.

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TABLE 5.2: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2009 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total AVG Open 884.40 924.60 939.10 918.00 886.50 978.30 925.75 954.60 950.85 1007.10 1043.90 1179.20 High 929.20 1005.70 967.00 932.60 980.00 989.80 959.05 971.85 1023.90 1070.80 1195.20 1226.35 Low 801.90 889.20 883.80 864.70 880.20 913.05 905.15 930.30 946.35 986.60 1041.15 1074.50 Close 926.70 942.50 917.70 886.10 978.90 926.85 953.75 950.50 1007.45 1044.85 1179.15 1098.15 11813.00 984.42 Fixed trend 0 101.71 99.03 95.62 105.63 100.02 102.92 102.61 108.71 112.75 127.24 118.50 1174.74 97.90 Moving trend 0 101.71 97.37 96.56 110.47 94.68 102.90 99.70 105.95 103.71 112.85 93.13 1119.03 93.25

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CHART NO 5.2: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2009

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Fixed trend 7 8 9 10 11 12

Moving trend

INRERENCE: From the above table it is inferred that in fixed trend is starts at 101.71 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 118.50. This shows a increasing trend. On the other trend in moving average its starts at 101.71 and fluctuates but at last it close at 93.13.There is a down trend in the last time period.

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TABLE NO 5.3: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2010 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Open High Low 1073.90 1044.10 1084.95 1111.45 1157.15 1196.30 1156.75 1174.30 1236.50 1305.65 1325.45 1361.25 Close 1078.30 1116.25 1113.20 1179.45 1213.00 1242.05 1180.15 1247.80 1370.65 1356.80 1385.95 1418.20 14838.80 1236.57 Fixed trend 0 103.52 103.24 109.38 112.49 115.19 109.45 115.72 121.27 125.83 128.53 131.52 1276.13 106.34 Moving trend 0 103.52 99.73 105.95 102.85 102.40 95.02 105.73 104.80 103.76 102.15 102.33 1128.22 94.02

1096.85 1161.90 1080.40 1130.60 1117.30 1144.85 1114.35 1181.60 1177.95 1249.25 1215.90 1265.00 1242.00 1243.80 1181.85 1249.75 1247.25 1315.80

10 1306.70 1387.05 11 1359.00 1424.25 12 1386.00 1431.00 Total AVG

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CHART NO 5.3: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2010

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Fixed trend

Moving trend

INRERENCE: From the above table it is referred that in fixed trend is starts at 103.52 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 131.52. This shows a increasing trend. On the other trend in moving average its starts at 103.52 and fluctuates but at last it close at 102.33.

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TABLE 5.4 Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2011 Fixed Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total AVG Open 1420.70 1332.45 1410.95 1432.80 1567.00 1535.20 1500.55 1613.95 1824.40 1623.50 1713.95 1748.60 High 1423.70 1418.10 1447.60 1569.25 1576.45 1558.05 1632.45 1911.85 1920.80 1752.30 1802.50 1762.95 Low 1308.05 1324.95 1380.65 1412.50 1462.35 1490.65 1478.00 1609.30 1532.60 1595.65 1666.65 1522.55 Close 1332.10 1410.50 1430.35 1564.55 1538.80 1499.80 1624.10 1823.30 1622.65 1714.10 1745.90 1562.90 18869.05 1572.42 trend 0 105.88 107.38 117.45 115.52 112.59 121.92 136.87 121.81 128.68 131.06 117.33 1316.49 109.71 Moving trend 0 105.88 101.41 109.38 98.35 97.47 108.29 112.27 88.99 105.64 101.86 89.52 1119.05 93.25

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CHART NO 5.4: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2011

160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Moving trend 9 10 11 12

Fixed trend

INRERENCE: From the above table it is referred that in fixed trend is starts at 105.89 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 117.33. This shows a decreasing trend. On the other trend in moving average its starts at 105.89 and fluctuates but at last it close at 89.52. It shows that volatility situation.

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Table no 5.5: Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for gold Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2012 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total AVG Open 1569.0 5 1737.4 0 1695.6 0 1669.8 5 1664.4 5 1559.7 0 1598.5 5 1613.7 5 1690.7 5 1770.9 5 1719.9 0 1713.8 0 High 1747.4 0 1790.4 0 1725.6 0 1683.2 5 1671.1 5 1640.8 0 1629.1 0 1692.6 0 1787.3 5 1795.7 5 1754.5 0 1723.2 0 Low 1567.0 0 1686.6 0 1627.9 5 1612.2 0 1526.8 5 1544.6 5 1554.4 5 1584.0 5 1685.4 0 1698.4 5 1672.4 5 1635.4 5 20104.85 1675.40 1056.72 88.06 1096.34 91.36 Close 1738.10 1696.75 1668.40 1664.10 1560.10 1598.60 1614.10 1691.75 1773.40 1720.45 1713.40 1665.70 Fixed trend 0 97.62 95.98 95.74 89.76 91.97 92.87 97.33 102.03 98.99 98.58 95.84 Moving trend 0 97.62 98.33 99.74 93.75 102.47 100.97 104.81 104.83 97.01 99.59 97.22

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CHART NO 5.5: Trend Analysis by method of Moving & Fixed Average for the year of 2012

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Fixed trend

Moving trend

INFERENCE From the above table its referred that in fixed trend is starts at 97.62and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 95.84. This shows a decreasing trend. On the other trend in moving average its starts at 97.62. And fluctuates but at last it close at 97.22. It shows that there is a volatility situation.

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TABLE 5.6 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of simple average for Gold Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 AVG G.AVG Total 10542.90 11813.00 14838.80 18869.05 20104.85 76168.60 15233.72 AVG 878.58 984.42 1236.57 1572.42 1675.40 6347.38 1269.48 Seasonal indices 69.21 77.55 97.41 123.86 131.98 Seasonal deviations 390.90 285.06 32.91 -302.94 -405.93

CALCULAIONS G.AVG=(AVG/5)= 1269.48 Seasonal indices = (AVG/G.AVG)*100 Seasonal deviation=(G.AVG AVG) INFERENCE: From the above table it is inferred that, the gold is starts low in first year of every month and gradually increases. At the last year of every month the market for gold goes to the peak position. The deviation of market is high during last week of every month.

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Table 5.7 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2008 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 926.00 972.30 915.60 876.60 886.70 924.70 914.40 830.70 878.60 743.10 814.50 879.70 3moving total Centered month average 937.97 921.50 892.97 896.00 908.60 889.93 874.57 810.80 805.40 805.77 3

2813.90 2764.50 2678.90 2688.00 2725.80 2669.80 2623.70 2432.40 2416.20 2417.30

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CHART NO 5.6: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2008

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1 0

937.97

921.5 892.97

896

908.6 889.93 874.57 810.8 805.4 805.77

0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3-D Colum n1
INFERENCE From the above table its referred that in three month moving average is starts at 937.97 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 805.77. This shows a decreasing trend.

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Table 5.8 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2009 Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 926.70 942.50 917.70 886.10 978.90 926.85 953.75 950.50 1007.45 1044.85 1179.15 1098.15 3moving total Centered month average 928.97 915.43 927.57 930.62 953.17 943.83 970.70 1001.7 1077.15 1107.38 3

2786.90 2746.30 2782.70 2791.85 2859.50 2831.50 2912.10 3003.20 3231.45 3322.15

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CHART NO 5.7: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2009

1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 1 0 2 928.97 915.43 927.57 930.62 953.17 943.83 970.7 1001.7

1077.15 1107.38

10

11

12

INFERENCE From the above table its referred that in three month moving average is starts at 928.97 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 1107.38. This shows a decreasing trend.

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Table 5.9 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2010 Centered month average 1102.58 1136.30 1168.55 1211.50 1211.73 1223.33 1245.20 1304.08 1350.13 1386.98 3

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1078.30 1116.25 1113.20 1179.45 1213.00 1242.05 1180.15 1247.80 1370.65 1356.80 1385.95 1418.20

3moving total

3307.75 3408.90 3505.65 3634.30 3635.20 3670.00 3735.60 3912.25 4050.40 4160.95

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CHART NO 5.8: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2010

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

0 1 0 2 3 1102.58

1211.51211.731223.33 1168.55 1136.3

1350.13 1245.2 1304.08

1386.98

10

11

12

3-D Colum n1
INFERENCE From the above table its referred that in three month moving average is starts at 1102.58 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 1386.98. This shows a decreasing trend.

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Table 5.10 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2011 Centered month average 1390.98 1468.47 1511.23 1534.38 1554.23 1649.07 1690.02 1720.02 1694.22 1674.30 3

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1332.10 1410.50 1430.35 1564.55 1538.80 1499.80 1624.10 1823.30 1622.65 1714.10 1745.90 1562.90

3moving total

4172.95 4405.40 4533.70 4603.15 4662.70 4947.20 5070.05 5160.05 5082.65 5022.90

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CHART NO 5.9: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2011

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 1

1720.02 1690.02 1694.22 1674.3 1534.38 1649.07 1511.23 1554.23 1468.47 1390.98

0 2

10

11

12

3-D Colum n1
INFERENCE From the above table its referred that in three month moving average is starts at 1390.98 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 1674.30. This shows a decreasing trend.

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Table 5.11 Calculation of seasonal indices by method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2012 Centered month average 1701.08 1676.30 1630.87 1607.60 1590.93 1634.82 1693.08 1728.53 1735.75 1699.85 3

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1738.10 1696.75 1668.40 1664.10 1560.10 1598.60 1614.10 1691.75 1773.40 1720.45 1713.40 1665.70

3moving total

5103.25 5028.90 4892.60 4822.80 4772.80 4904.45 5079.25 5185.60 5207.25 5099.55

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CHART NO 5.10: Method of Three Month Moving Average for the year of 2012

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 1

1701.08

1676.3

1735.75 1590.93 1693.08 1728.53 1699.85 1634.82 1630.871607.6

0 2

10

11

12

3-D C olum n1
INFERENCE From the above table its referred that in three month moving average is starts at 1701.08 and fluctuates drastically at last it closes at 1699.85. This shows a decreasing trend.

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TABLE5.12 Calculation of seasonal indices by moving average method Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 AVG G.AVG Total 8743.51 9755.89 12340.38 15886.92 16698.81 AVG 728.63 812.99 1028.37 1323.91 1391.57 5285.47 1057.09 Seasonal indices 68.93 76.91 97.28 125.24 131.64 Seasonal deviations 328.46 244.10 28.72 -266.82 -332.48

CALCULAIONS G.AVG=(AVG/5)= 1057.09 Seasonal indices = (AVG/G.AVG)*100 Seasonal deviation=(G.AVG AVG) INFERENCE: From the above table it is inferred that, first year of every month the market for gold begins low and fluctuates in next year also. At the last year of every month the market increases except September and December.

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TABLE5.13: Calculation of Seasonal indices by method of least square for Gold Mon th 2008 2009 2010 Price(Y) 728.63 812.99 1028.37 Deviations (X) -2 -1 0 1 2 Deviations* 2(X) -4 -2 0 2 4 XY -2914.52 -1625.98 0 2647.82 5566.28 XY=367 3.60 (X)2 16 4 0 Trend( Yc) 872.41 964.25 1056.09

2011 1323.91 2012 1391.57 N=5 Y=5280 .47

4 1147.93 16 1239.77 2 (X )= 40

Trend (YC)=a+bx Calculations: A=Y/N = 1056.09 B=XY/X2 = 91.84 INFERENCE: From the table it inferred that gold market shows on increasing trend in the consecutive year. This shows that the market is healthy.

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CHAPTER - V FINDINGS: This chapter gives detailed finding which are drawn from result analysis with the help of statistical tools that are used for the purpose of getting result. The findings are here under. When the base year is taken fixed for trend analysis, it shows more volatility in the market, but overall it shown positive sign. Incase if the base year is taken from the previous year (moving trend) there is a high fluctuation in the market and also shown a stable. When seasonal indices is calculated by simple average method, it is found that at the first week if every month the market starts low and increased in the second week of every month and there will be some variations in the third week but at the last week of every month the market stays stable. It is found that for gold market starts low in first of every month and increases highly in the second week, but it fluctuates in the last two week of every month. This occurs when the indices is calculated by link relative method. According to moving average method, it is found that for gold market begins low in the first week of every month and fluctuates in next two weeks, but finally closed at high position in the last week of every month. According to least square table it inferred that gold market shows on decreasing trend in the consecutive year. This shows that the market is unhealthy.

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SUGGESTION & RECOMMENDATION: After this study, I would like to give following recommendations, which can help to the investors and the company in general. Investors can buy Gold (commodities) during the first week of every month and can sell Gold at the last week of every month. This is subject to change according to the present worlds economic situation. The company (Tokyo Info Solutions) can analyze the market periodically and can provide tips for the investor. This might help them to acquire more investors. It is always better to invest in Gold as they mostly show an increasing trend. It is better to invest in Gold as they have worldwide demand and the price increases every now and then in reality. In todays worlds economic condition all the stock markets are facing slowdown, except commodity market (Gold market). This market always goes in an increasing trend despite of all the economic crises. In the company website there is column called daily tips, but it is not updates regularly, if the updates regularly it will be helpful for investors in taking investment decisions and also helps the organization to meet competition and investor expansion.

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CONCLUSION To conclude that, Gold market have a crucial role to play in price risk management process. People still considering that to invest in gold market is very risky. Moreover they consider that commodity market for speculation rather than business purpose. On the other hand if there is any fluctuation in foreign market, it has more effect on Indian stock market than that of domestic market. As the Gold rates are fixed according to US dollar so the volatility of these prices will be more as and then according to exchange rate of our country towards US. But in country like India where there is a lot of demand for Gold market, the investors can invest in this market as it mostly shows an increasing trend. According the analysis done for past six months, there is a fluctuation in the market but it is not in huge way. In the end it always showed a positive sign. According to me the awareness towards Gold market is very less, if proper measures are taken to remove this hindrance, it will be attracting much more investors. The individual, the company and the government can generate more revenue out of this. Finally I conclude that investing in Gold market with proper knowledge and analysis; it will generate more revenue despite of all the risks involved in it.

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ANNEXURE DATA
2008 Date Open 1 833.5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 925.9 0 973.2 0 915.5 0 876.7 0 887.0 0 926.2 0 913.2 0 833.2 0 871.6 0 726.7 0 818.4 0 High 936.40 975.90 1032.3 0 952.60 935.10 935.20 988.30 917.00 926.40 931.60 830.50 890.20 Low 833.4 0 884.3 0 904.8 0 862.4 0 844.9 0 857.4 0 893.9 0 772.9 0 736.2 0 681.8 0 699.7 0 741.0 0 Close 926.00 972.30 915.60 876.60 886.70 924.70 914.40 830.70 878.60 743.10 814.50 879.70

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2009 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Open 884.40 924.60 939.10 918.00 886.50 978.30 925.75 954.60 950.85 1007.10 1043.90 1179.20 High 929.20 1005.70 967.00 932.60 980.00 989.80 959.05 971.85 1023.90 1070.80 1195.20 1226.35 Low 801.90 889.20 883.80 864.70 880.20 913.05 905.15 930.30 946.35 986.60 1041.15 1074.50 Close 926.70 942.50 917.70 886.10 978.90 926.85 953.75 950.50 1007.45 1044.85 1179.15 1098.15

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2010 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Open High Low 1073.90 1044.10 1084.95 1111.45 1157.15 1196.30 1156.75 1174.30 1236.50 1305.65 1325.45 1361.25 Close 1078.30 1116.25 1113.20 1179.45 1213.00 1242.05 1180.15 1247.80 1370.65 1356.80 1385.95 1418.20

1096.85 1161.90 1080.40 1130.60 1117.30 1144.85 1114.35 1181.60 1177.95 1249.25 1215.90 1265.00 1242.00 1243.80 1181.85 1249.75 1247.25 1315.80 1306.70 1387.05 1359.00 1424.25 1386.00 1431.00

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2011 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Open 1420.70 1332.45 1410.95 1432.80 1567.00 1535.20 1500.55 1613.95 1824.40 1623.50 1713.95 1748.60 High 1423.70 1418.10 1447.60 1569.25 1576.45 1558.05 1632.45 1911.85 1920.80 1752.30 1802.50 1762.95 Low 1308.05 1324.95 1380.65 1412.50 1462.35 1490.65 1478.00 1609.30 1532.60 1595.65 1666.65 1522.55 Close 1332.10 1410.50 1430.35 1564.55 1538.80 1499.80 1624.10 1823.30 1622.65 1714.10 1745.90 1562.90

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2012 Date 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Open 1569.0 5 1737.4 0 1695.6 0 1669.8 5 1664.4 5 1559.7 0 1598.5 5 1613.7 5 1690.7 5 1770.9 5 1719.9 0 1713.8 0 High 1747.4 0 1790.4 0 1725.6 0 1683.2 5 1671.1 5 1640.8 0 1629.1 0 1692.6 0 1787.3 5 1795.7 5 1754.5 0 1723.2 0 Low 1567.0 0 1686.6 0 1627.9 5 1612.2 0 1526.8 5 1544.6 5 1554.4 5 1584.0 5 1685.4 0 1698.4 5 1672.4 5 1635.4 5 Close 1738.10 1696.75 1668.40 1664.10 1560.10 1598.60 1614.10 1691.75 1773.40 1720.45 1713.40 1665.70

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BIBLIOGRAPHY A bibliography means booklists i.e. list of written sources, either, published (or) unpublished consulted in the preparation of the report during the course of research books periodicals ,articles, government documents, unpublished materials ,pamphlets, films radio or television, broadcasts, records, lectures, interviews etc. Dr.SP.Gupta, Dr.P.K.Gupta, Dr.Manmohan, Business Statistics & Operations Research., 2nd and 4th edition 2005, Educational Publisher New Delhi. Punithavathi pandian. Security analysis and portfolio management 1st edition 2002, vikas publisher. Honda R.P., Statistics for Business and Economics, 2 nd edition, Macmillan India ltd., 2001. C.R. Kothari, (Second) Research Methodologies, Methods and techniques, Wiley Eastern Ltd., New Delhi. Prasanna Chandra, (Second) Investment Analysis And Portfolio Management, Tata McGraw Hill, New Delhi. The Complete booklet to investing rights in shares, National Stock Exchange Ltd, Mumbai. Business Statistics, J.K. Sharma, Pearson Education. Trading Commodities and Financial Futures: A Step by Step guide to Mastering the Market, 3rd Edition by George Kleinman.

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