Professional Documents
Culture Documents
03 June 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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03 June 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 June 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
405.10
270.90
427.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
588
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
282.40
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
339
0.66
COBHAM
285.80
190.10
293.40
Neutral
Neutral
291
0.82
MEGGITT
532.50
364.30
534.50
Neutral
Neutral
518
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1205.00
780.75
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1174
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1379.00
979.50
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
1136
0.71
1758.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Neutral
1673
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
298.90
173.60
311.90
Neutral
Neutral
298
2.02
INCHCAPE
549.00
305.20
577.50
Neutral
Neutral
566
1.48
LOOKERS
103.75
56.50
110.00
Neutral
Neutral
100
1.23
25.50
13.50
26.50
Neutral
Buy
35
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
320.45
150.55
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-817
1.94
725.90
503.20
769.90
Neutral
Buy
862
1.17
62.11
25.72
62.96
Sell
Sell
1.89
336.60
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-125
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1537.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3384
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
555.00
348.00
588.50
Neutral
Neutral
588
0.55
DIAGEO
1951.00
1516.50
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1737
0.55
SABMILLER
3330.00
2348.50
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
3836
0.95
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ALENT
370.60
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3448
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
320.10
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
494
1.23
CARCLO
370.00
356.00
503.00
Neutral
Sell
121
0.73
2463.00
2125.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3348
1.04
235.20
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
298
0.99
1.45
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2561.00
2080.27
2696.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4481
VICTREX
1702.00
1185.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1359
1.14
SYNTHOMER
204.50
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
339
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
200.00
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Buy
253
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
93.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
282
Beta
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
233.10
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
829
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
319.80
114.00
346.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
626
1.58
BELLWAY
1277.00
693.00
1377.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2869
1.15
2117.00
1205.00
2207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3276
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
189.00
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
407
0.83
1.20
751.50
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Buy
1051
CARILLION
256.90
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1564
1.12
CLARKE (T)
54.25
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
464
0.82
COSTAIN GROUP
255.50
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1067
0.57
1396.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
869
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
956.00
583.00
999.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2998
1.01
KELLER
948.00
348.25
978.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2446
1.26
1239.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5440
0.97
67.00
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
228
1.07
1.39
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
141.00
76.00
141.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
417
568.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4621
0.87
16.75
10.38
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
61
1.15
NORCROS
1220.00
496.69
1280.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1990
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
224.10
107.30
238.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
462
1.09
SIG
176.60
82.30
179.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
539
1.79
1.88
1.88
14.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
37
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
99.15
40.28
103.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
228
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1611.00
906.50
1611.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4242
2.01
WOLSELEY
3378.00
2121.32
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6124
1.46
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1294.00
978.00
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
820
0.75
680.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
892
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
127.13
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
261
1.29
INVENSYS
397.80
198.90
402.70
Neutral
Sell
351
1.41
LAIRD
210.60
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
328
2.13
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1683.00
1135.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1266
1.00
RENISHAW
1750.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2635
1.26
SPECTRIS
2087.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2809
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.13
Neutral
Sell
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
173.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
319
1.58
XAAR
652.00
185.00
695.00
Neutral
Sell
236
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
83.38
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
125
1.28
BODYCOTE
550.00
310.30
563.00
Neutral
Buy
656
1.60
CASTINGS
339.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
651
0.99
VESUVIUS
380.60
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
975
2.20
FENNER
345.00
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
532
1.42
HALMA
517.00
375.00
538.50
Neutral
Sell
370
0.75
434.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
353
1.37
1293.00
776.00
1359.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6355
1.41
293.00
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Sell
146
1.82
2860.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
1437
1.00
274.40
177.00
280.80
Neutral
Sell
238
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
50.13
35.40
89.40
Neutral
Sell
39
SPIRAX-SARCO
2835.00
1900.00
2923.00
Neutral
Sell
2040
0.84
VITEC GROUP
604.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
430
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2331.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2123
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
407.20
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
700
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
273.80
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
162
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
374.30
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
195
0.57
TESCO
365.45
299.25
387.75
Neutral
Sell
260
0.68
94.63
18.88
100.50
Neutral
Sell
67
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1812.00
1167.00
2031.00
Neutral
Buy
2106
0.62
CRANSWICK
1127.00
732.50
1127.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2079
0.43
DAIRY CREST
486.30
316.00
503.50
Neutral
Neutral
508
0.94
DEVRO
325.00
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
513
0.32
72.00
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Sell
-177
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
816.50
633.50
875.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1546
0.71
2775.00
2013.00
2885.00
Neutral
Neutral
2750
0.58
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03 June 2013
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Over Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
29.00
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
34
0.69
458.50
224.40
465.60
Neutral
Sell
346
0.54
1453.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
944
1.27
612.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
281
0.95
41.52
12.67
42.90
Neutral
Neutral
44
1.51
164.00
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
58
1.13
32.50
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
105
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
329.00
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Buy
490
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
911.50
606.50
911.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1504
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
71.25
38.00
72.50
Neutral
Buy
102
1.25
KINGFISHER
345.60
254.10
349.70
Neutral
Neutral
363
0.94
470.90
312.20
485.00
Neutral
Neutral
512
0.65
55.50
43.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
62
1.04
349.75
189.25
364.00
Neutral
Buy
442
0.47
NEXT
4619.00
2991.00
4749.00
Sell
Neutral
4511
0.67
TED BAKER
1425.00
855.00
1490.00
Neutral
Sell
642
0.55
68.50
38.00
70.00
Neutral
Sell
53
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
141.00
126.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
117
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
792.00
585.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
575
0.39
OPTOS
126.37
122.25
222.75
Neutral
Buy
158
1.18
771.50
590.50
794.50
Neutral
Sell
698
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
717.50
562.50
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
698
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
375.00
263.00
375.00
Neutral
Sell
317
0.92
77.00
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
108
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
988.00
469.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
501
0.74
CSR
552.00
200.30
570.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1589
1.18
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
62.00
25.00
83.25
Neutral
Sell
26
0.90
351.40
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Neutral
381
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
134.10
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
484
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
213.50
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-650
0.90
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1338.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Sell
-497
0.53
AMLIN
417.30
312.90
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1576
0.46
BEAZLEY
236.20
132.50
241.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
978
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
503.00
399.00
552.50
Neutral
Sell
464
0.30
HISCOX
554.50
398.36
600.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1957
0.48
888.00
671.00
914.50
Neutral
Buy
1252
0.31
115.20
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
747
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
494.25
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3527
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2245.00
2062.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4126
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
113.10
55.50
123.80
Neutral
Neutral
112
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
358.50
158.00
373.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
799
1.01
855.00
700.00
855.00
Neutral
Sell
696
0.39
GREENE KING
764.00
478.20
789.50
Neutral
Sell
671
0.93
LADBROKES
206.80
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
259
0.93
1907.00
1471.72
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1517
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
560.00
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
635
1.40
380.00
217.40
408.50
Neutral
Sell
328
1.12
128.50
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
43
1.25
13.25
5.61
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
53
1.27
148.80
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
517
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
518.50
280.80
531.00
Neutral
Sell
403
WETHERSPOON (JD)
658.50
385.00
661.50
Neutral
Buy
764
0.69
WHITBREAD
2883.00
1824.00
2897.00
Sell
Sell
2051
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
442.70
246.35
452.80
Neutral
Sell
264
0.87
MARSTON'S
143.00
94.70
154.70
Neutral
Sell
19
1.21
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
333.80
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Neutral
325
1.25
CHESNARA
256.25
155.25
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
476
0.70
179.00
106.00
187.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
454
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
205.40
138.70
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
397
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1117.00
660.00
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1141
1.71
587.50
307.50
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6508
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
03 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
130.00
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-661
0.37
780.50
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1787
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
Target
Beta
33.75
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-22
1.03
765.00
363.50
770.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4291
1.14
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
942.00
708.00
1030.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7876
1.00
INFORMA
508.00
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-64
1.53
ITE GROUP
293.60
180.00
299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
284
1.45
ITV
131.10
69.45
134.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
1335
1.54
17.25
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
822
1.27
1229.00
1119.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
354
0.63
80.00
36.25
84.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2754
0.79
274.25
265.00
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
949
0.16
34.50
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Sell
-647
0.50
STV GROUP
135.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
274
0.79
ST.IVES
161.00
67.50
166.50
Neutral
Sell
259
1.50
TRINITY MIRROR
122.00
25.50
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-302
1.59
UBM
728.50
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1961
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
163.50
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1416
WPP
1128.00
743.00
1190.00
Neutral
Sell
-540
1.35
HIBU
0.35
0.26
2.18
Neutral
Strong Buy
847
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1526.50
1526.50
2215.00
Neutral
Sell
1192
1.74
245.75
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
236
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
945.50
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
857
1.41
1915.50
1694.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2959
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
323.10
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
994
#NA
LONMIN
295.00
240.84
421.26
Neutral
Buy
357
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5230.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
3044
0.34
RIO TINTO
2857.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2330
1.50
3.38
10.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
168
0.89
832.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2128
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1262.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1213.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
896
0.80
BP
473.45
401.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1008
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
273.10
248.20
309.40
Buy
Sell
-21
1.32
7.97
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Buy
11
0.82
869.00
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
573
1.31
1.36
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
60.75
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Sell
-60
359.90
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Buy
409
1.43
2280.50
2068.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8361
0.84
386.10
276.50
404.30
Neutral
Buy
496
0.53
1045.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
706
1.04
851.50
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Sell
738
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
03 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
103.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
237
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
373.70
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
305
0.69
4722.00
3300.00
4926.00
Neutral
Neutral
4765
0.36
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.41
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-1
1.01
3388.00
2592.00
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6511
0.47
BTG
359.50
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
169
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
684.00
469.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
746
0.25
1713.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Neutral
1691
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.30
1.55
2.88
Buy
Sell
0.64
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2170.00
1727.00
2213.00
Neutral
Sell
1448
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
50.00
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
32
0.73
VERNALIS
22.38
21.75
27.38
Neutral
Sell
10
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
413.60
276.30
426.70
Neutral
Sell
-661
1.18
BRITISH LAND
609.00
475.40
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1787
1.06
Target
Beta
35.50
22.75
37.00
Sell
Sell
-22
0.85
970.00
595.00
995.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4291
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2388.00
1740.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7876
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
203.00
121.75
203.00
Neutral
Sell
-64
0.99
GRAINGER
154.50
83.10
157.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
284
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
554.00
367.80
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1335
1.10
HAMMERSON
513.00
409.20
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
822
1.19
HELICAL BAR
265.00
173.00
297.50
Neutral
Buy
354
0.77
933.50
706.00
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2754
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
338.90
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
949
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
153.88
127.00
153.88
Neutral
Sell
-647
0.73
397.50
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
274
0.42
322.00
311.17
363.53
Neutral
Sell
259
0.35
75.00
32.50
79.25
Sell
Sell
-302
1.19
SAVILLS
593.50
315.80
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1961
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
615.50
492.00
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1416
1.05
SEGRO
279.40
209.40
302.80
Neutral
Sell
-540
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
288.00
145.50
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
847
1.59
212.50
147.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
1.01
UNITE GROUP
361.20
180.75
387.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2293
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1147
1.03
402.40
220.00
418.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1354
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
128.70
112.25
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
127
0.73
2418.00
1550.00
2420.00
Neutral
Sell
1366
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
462.70
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1346
1.00
KOFAX
330.00
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
336
1.11
27.50
18.25
27.50
Sell
Sell
25
0.85
686.00
431.48
710.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1036
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
152.37
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
323
0.74
68.75
68.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-98
0.52
1951.00
1275.00
2047.00
Neutral
Buy
2192
0.76
365.10
247.70
368.10
Neutral
Buy
435
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
466.00
237.30
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1288
1.09
BREWIN DOLPHIN
244.70
136.30
244.70
Sell
Strong Buy
679
0.73
9815.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
98539
0.84
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
385.00
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1334
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
187.00
141.00
190.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1183
0.69
992.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5215
0.86
96.35
71.50
110.40
Neutral
Sell
75
0.89
3.10
0.55
3.70
Neutral
Sell
-124
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
168.20
90.55
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
812
1.44
HELPHIRE GROUP
ICAP
367.50
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1833
1.07
468.00
241.10
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3383
1.70
INVESTEC
465.20
326.50
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1842
1.56
1406.00
930.00
1434.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3524
1.15
115.50
63.25
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4464
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1550.00
1186.00
1557.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5695
0.75
SCHRODERS
2368.00
1180.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8620
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1840.00
966.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11431
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ACAL
221.50
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1292
0.92
AGGREKO
1787.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3503
1.05
AMEC
1025.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3434
1.04
631.00
212.20
671.00
Neutral
Buy
920
1.63
1160.00
840.50
1205.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2315
0.48
555.00
324.00
580.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
2068
0.76
1284.00
999.50
1342.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2912
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
507.50
214.00
525.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1495
0.39
CAPITA
962.00
605.50
1018.00
Neutral
Sell
239
0.51
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
54.50
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
493
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
866.50
622.00
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2055
0.74
BERENDSEN
763.50
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2960
1.05
DE LA RUE
955.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1827
#NA
DIGNITY
1353.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2134
0.22
DIPLOMA
532.00
417.10
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1429
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
269.30
195.20
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1083
1.04
FILTRONA
697.50
428.00
750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1339
1.13
G4S
246.60
240.00
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
937
0.58
HAYS
93.90
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
440
1.10
HOMESERVE
264.70
137.50
265.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1285
0.94
INTERSERVE
488.40
296.00
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3460
1.28
3215.00
2558.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4618
0.78
47.00
26.50
47.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
362
1.17
0.72
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.38
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
220
MENZIES (JOHN)
727.00
542.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2256
1.43
384.80
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
843
1.42
MITIE GROUP
259.90
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1318
0.55
86.00
86.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
735
0.33
OFFICE2OFFICE
PAYPOINT
970.00
642.00
970.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1779
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
213.10
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
787
1.33
REGUS
167.80
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
67
1.46
90.90
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
325
1.25
REXAM
530.00
395.69
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1805
0.90
RICARDO
404.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1678
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
232.00
176.25
233.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1188
1.24
RPC GROUP
401.30
365.40
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1903
0.78
RPS GROUP
210.00
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1070
1.51
SERCO GROUP
612.00
516.50
647.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2419
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
86.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
717
1.46
RENTOKIL INITIAL
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
57.25
22.25
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
263
1.26
165.00
82.00
166.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
562
0.63
57.00
39.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
340
0.93
348.00
245.50
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
2091
0.86
81.00
42.00
81.00
Sell
Strong Buy
540
0.79
www.intellisys.uk.com
03 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Under Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
302.10
200.70
322.30
Neutral
Buy
359
0.91
43.48
27.30
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
89
0.70
613.00
436.00
749.00
Neutral
Sell
483
0.53
83.85
67.00
88.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
139
1.24
1325.00
735.00
1325.00
Sell
Sell
778
0.09
191.95
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Neutral
183
0.54
Beta
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
280.40
178.00
288.40
Neutral
Sell
Target
184
Beta
1.30
429.75
309.50
429.75
Neutral
Neutral
467
0.98
CLARKSON
1716.00
1150.00
1716.00
Sell
Sell
1196
0.80
EASYJET
1266.00
484.90
1300.00
Neutral
Sell
709
0.77
FIRST GROUP
124.90
118.00
260.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
591
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
975.50
545.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
425
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1537.00
1110.00
1588.00
Neutral
Buy
1898
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
200.90
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
266
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
340.75
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
710
STAGECOACH GROUP
295.80
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
386
0.89
71.00
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-46
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
380.00
306.30
394.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
597
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
784.50
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
901
0.50
PENNON GROUP
683.50
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
822
0.59
SSE
1554.00
1294.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2201
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
2052.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1613
0.35
756.00
646.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
733
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
03 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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