Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Highlights
US Building Permits grew by 0.97 million in the last month. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 38.5-mark in June. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.7 percent in prior month. US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2 percent in May. Japans Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.82 trillion Yen a month ago. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of increase in Japanese exports after increase in the countrys shipments along with less than expected fall in trade balance data of the economy. US Building Permits grew by 0.97 million in May as against a rise of 1.01 million in April. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2 percent in May from earlier rise of 0.1 percent in prior month. CPI increased to 0.1 percent in last month as compared to decline of 0.4 percent in April. Housing Starts rose to 0.91 million in May with respect to rise of 0.86 million a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5813.6 19223.3 15318.23 1651.8 16197.9 1959.2 58497.8 13007.3 98.44 1366.60 21.68 6990.00 102.09 Prev. day -0.6 -0.5 0.9 0.8 0.0 -1.5 0.2 -0.2 0.7 -1.2 -0.4 -1.4 0.0

as on June 18, 2013 WoW 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.6 -0.5 2.0 17.5 -0.1 3.2 -1.8 0.1 -1.1 3.1 MoM -6.0 -5.2 -0.5 -0.9 -4.8 -1.1 3.7 -8.0 2.4 -0.1 -3.4 -10.9 -2.6 YoY 14.8 5.1 20.2 22.8 20.5 2.0 2.3 50.3 18.2 -15.9 -24.4 -8.1 -0.8

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and declined marginally 0.01 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in global markets which led to fall in demand for low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of unfavorable economic data from US. The DX touched an intra-day low of 80.71 and closed at 80.75 on Tuesday.

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated 1.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of heavy dollar demand from defense companies and oil importers. Further, weak domestic markets and stronger DX in the early part of the trade added downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, concerns over the current account deficit of the country acted as negative factor for the Indian Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 58.87 and closed at 58.83 against dollar on Tuesday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.1,871.30 crores th ($316.02 million) as on 18 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.81,333.80 crores ($15,037.0 million) till 18 June 2013. Outlook The Rupee is expected to depreciate as factors like weak domestic equities and economic worries will continue to act as a negative factor for the currency. Movement in the Dollar Index is dependent on the Federal Reserves actions towards stimulus pullback. In our opinion, the Fed would most likely announce its strategy in this meeting and actually begin the withdrawal in the coming months. Hence, towards the end of the session, the Dollar Index could weaken as the actual implementation of the pullback in the bond-buying program is not expected on an immediate basis. US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 80.75 58.83 58.85 58.89 Prev. day 0.0 -1.3 1.54 1.59 WoW -0.4 -0.9 0.48 0.56

Source: Reuters

as on June 18, 2013 MoM -3.8 -7.2 7.06 7.15 YoY 1.6 -5.0 5.06 5.14

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for June 19, 2013 Support 58.70/58.50 Resistance 59.10/59.30

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| June 19, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of favorable economic sentiments data from the region. Further, upbeat global markets in the later part of the trade coupled with weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3415 and closed at 1.3393 against the dollar on Tuesday. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased by 2.1 points to 38.5-mark in June as against a rise of 36.4-level in May. European ZEW Economic Sentiment gained by 3 points to 30.6-level in current month from 27.6mark in last month. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to weaken on the back of strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of upbeat global markets. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 78.50/78.30 79.0/79.20 valid for June 19, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3393 78.80 78.7 Prev. day 0.2 -2.0 1.84

as on June 18, 2013 WoW 0.6 -1.8 1.23 MoM 4.3 -11.4 11.19 YoY 5.6 -12.3 11.31

78.7

1.85

1.26

11.27

11.39

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated 0.5 percent yesterday on the back of unfavorable economic data from the country. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5563 and closed at 1.5642 against dollar on Tuesday. However, weakness in the DX prevented sharp fall in the currency. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.7 percent in May as against a rise of 2.4 percent in April. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input declined by 0.3 percent in last month from earlier fall of 2.3 percent in April. Retail Price Index (RPI) gained by 3.1 percent in May as compared to rise of 2.9 percent a month ago. Core CPI was at 2.2 percent in last month with respect to 2 percent in April. House Price Index (HPI) fell marginally to 2.6 percent in April when compared to 2.7 percent a month earlier. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be prevented or reversal can be seen as a result of upbeat global markets. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 19, 2013 Support 91.65/91.50 Resistance 92.0/92.20

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5642 91.983 91.81 Prev. day -0.48 0.72 0.89

as on June 18, 2013

WoW 0.0 0.78 0.90

MoM 3.1 10.48 9.56

YoY -0.5 4.89 4.85

91.84

0.91

0.94

9.60

4.88

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| June 19, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated 0.9 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 95.76 and closed at 95.32 against dollar on Tuesday. Japans Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.82 trillion Yen in May as against a previous deficit of 0.70 trillion Yen a month ago. Outlook For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to depreciate, taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global markets, which will lead to fall in demand for the low-yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of favorable trade balance data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 19, 2013 Support 61.55/61.40 Resistance 61.90/62.20
Source: Telequote

as on June 18, 2013 Last 95.32 0.6157 61.65 61.70 Prev day 0.9 0.21 0.97 1.03 WoW -0.7 1.52 2.22 2.32 MoM -7.6 15.75 14.74 14.80 YoY 20.8 -12.99 -12.94 -12.88

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on June 19, 2013

Indicator Trade Balance MPC Meeting Minutes German 10-y Bond Auction Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Economic Projections FOMC Statement Federal Funds Rate Country Japan UK Euro US US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 2:00pm Tentative 8:00pm 11:30pm 11:30pm 11:30pm Actual -0.82T Forecast -0.89T 0-0-9 <0.25% Previous -0.76T 0-0-9 1.41/1.6 2.5M <0.25% Impact Medium High Medium Medium High High Medium

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