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Non-agricultural commodities

Copper fundamentals (000 tonnes)


2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Global
Production

18405

18236

17944

17296

16572

% change

0.93%

1.63%

3.75%

4.37%

4.46%

Ex-China

14205

14441

14445

14293

13972

Consumption

17628

17935

18163

17140

16616

% change

-1.71%

-1.26%

5.97%

3.15%

-0.53%

Ex-China

12588

13146

13370

13370

13010

1184

706

547

560

468

China refined copper imports

244

212

112

96

60

China refined copper exports

13

40

Western world stocks


India
Copper production

641

669

719

627

518

Copper consumption

520

500

475

407

397

Copper and copper products imports

220

227

193

278

211

Copper and copper products exports

279

416

450

356

289


Inventory levels - year-end
LME

502.4

339.8

197.5

182.8

89.6

SHFE

95.3

15.3

25.6

31.3

57.8


Average daily volatility (MCX spot prices)

1.92%

3.3%

2.5%

2.2%

1.9%

Source: ICSG, DGCIS, USGS, GFMS Copper Survey 2009, GFMS base metal report, LME, SHFE, MCX, ICA

Global refined production - break-up (000 tonne)
Primary from concentrate

12913

12250

12141

11934

11768

Primary SX-EW

3314

3157

3060

2749

2644

Secondary

2898

2829

2743

2613

2161

18405

18236

17944

17296

16572

Total refined production


Source: GFMS Copper Survey 2010
Global refined consumption - break-up (000 tonne)
Construction

5597

5955

6276

6116

Electrical & electronic products


Transportation equipment

6000

6766

6218

5908

5288

5071

1824

2040

2145

1979

1950

Consumer & general products

1757

1824

1820

1769

1667

Industrial machinery & equipment

1684

1899

2014

1988

1927

17628

17935

18163

17140

16616

Total refined consumption


Source: GFMS Copper Survey 2010

Economic parameters impacting Copper prices



2009

2008

2007

2006

Real GDP (%)


US
-2.5
1.1
2
2.9
Japan
-5.4
-0.3
1.9
2.8
Eurozone
-4.0
1
2.3
2.6
China
8.7
9
11.5
11.1
India
5.5
7.3
8.9
9.7
OECD
-3.4
1
2.6
3.2

Consumer price inflation (% change)
US
0.0
1
2.5
2.7
Japan
-1.7
0.5
1.4
0.3
Eurozone
0.5
1
3
2.2
China
0.8
3
5.9
2
India
7.5
5
7
6.7
OECD
0.1
1
3
2.2

Industrial output (YoY % change)
US
-2.0
-8.9
1.7
1.5
Japan
5.3
-20.7
1.5
5.4
Eurozone
-6.8
-12.2
1.4
5.3
China
11.0
5.7
17.4
14.7
India
11.7
-0.2
8
13.4

Interest rates (%)
US (Fed funds target)
0.00 - 0.25
0.25
4.25
5.25
Japan (12 month T-Bills)
0.13
0.249
0.581
0.618
Eurozone (refinance rates)
1
2.5
4
3.5
China (lending rate)
5.31
5.31
7.47
6.12
India (repo rate)
4.75
6.5
7.75
7.25

Money supply ( YoY % change)
US
3.7
9.6
5.6
5.4
Japan
2.2
0.7
0.7
-0.6
Eurozone
-0.3
7.5
11.6
9.9
China
27.58
17.82
16.72
16.9
India
17.2
19.6
22.84
19.33

Equity index (points) Year End
US (Dow Jones)
10428
8,776
13,265
12,463
India (Sensex)
17464
9,647
20,287
13,787

OECD indicators
OECD Total Monetary Aggr. & Comp. Broad Money Index
135.8
127.3
116.9
107.6
OECD Total Purchasing Power Index Manufacturing
N/A
113.83
106.9
103.7
OECD Total CPI OECD Groups Total Energy IPB
114.4
127.8
113.7
109.3
ISM Manufacturing Index
US auto sales ( YoY % change )
US pending home sales ( YoY % change )

2005
3.1
2.4
1.4
10.4
9
2.7

3.4
0.3
2.2
1.4
5.3
2.1

2.9
3.4
2.5
16.5
5.7

4.25
0.066
2.25
5.58
6.25

4.1
0.3
7.4
17.6
17.79

10,718
9,398

100
100
100

54.9
15.1%

32.9
-35.6%

49.1
-2.9%

52.2
-3.6%

54.9
-3.7%

9.2

5.7

-23.9

-6.3

-6.3

Source: OECD, IMF, CPM Gold Yearbook, World Bank, BSE, Dow Jones

156 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 157

Non-agricultural commodities

Copper prices

Month

Open

MCX futures price


(Rs/kg)
High
Low

Mar-10
338.15
355.50
Feb-10
310.50
344.40
Jan-10
343.95
354.20
Dec-09
324.30
347.15
Nov-09
308.80
325.45
Oct-09
297.80
315.40
Sep-09
308.00
319.20
Aug-09
276.25
317.15
Jul-09
242.50
278.00
Jun-09
229.85
256.75
May-09
228.20
241.75
Apr-09
206.50
242.75
Mar-09
173.50
209.45
Feb-09
157.05
177.30
Jan-09
155.00
174.65
Dec-08
189.05
191.45
Nov-08
207.50
214.75
Oct-08
303.50
305.00
Sep-08
327.45
328.40
Aug-08
342.85
343.80
Jul-08
365.80
387.35
Jun-08
335.10
371.65
May-08
332.80
361.20
Apr-08
335.10
355.50
Mar-08
335.80
353.90
Feb-08
286.55
342.35
Jan-08
265.95
292.95
Dec-07
279.50
280.60
Nov-07
302.80
304.25
Oct-07
317.85
327.65
Sep-07
304.55
321.30
Aug-07
322.50
322.50
Jul-07
314.75
332.05
Jun-07
305.00
315.05
May-07
333.50
345.60
Apr-07
303.05
343.15
Mar-07
272.90
305.00
Feb-07
256.70
282.80
Jan-07
285.60
286.55
Dec-06
320.15
327.40
Nov-06
336.85
338.60
Oct-06
351.55
361.50
Sep-06
358.50
375.45
Aug-06
348.40
360.05
Jul-06
343.90
383.25
Jun-06
371.50
374.00
May-06
328.40
397.85
Apr-06
242.45
343.00
Mar-06
216.40
247.95
Feb-06
216.70
229.00
Jan-06
203.50
218.50
Dec-05
193.40
209.75
Nov-05
174.30
195.00
Oct-05
167.00
183.50
Sep-05
158.30
169.50
Aug-05
156.80
174.00
Jul-05
145.60
157.90
Jun-05
139.30
156.00
May-05
136.00
139.90
Apr-05
137.25
149.30
Source: Exchanges websites, ICE, RBI

332.55
290.90
311.10
318.10
300.60
280.80
286.50
276.20
234.70
229.85
212.65
202.15
171.50
153.15
150.85
138.55
172.50
188.50
293.30
302.40
331.55
330.80
331.15
327.05
310.40
278.15
265.35
252.35
251.65
300.10
289.60
281.30
311.55
292.05
287.55
299.65
260.75
235.00
246.60
283.20
296.65
327.65
335.65
347.00
333.90
291.00
325.00
242.45
211.80
210.50
199.90
192.55
172.10
166.95
153.40
153.25
145.60
138.30
127.65
137.25

158 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

Close
351.35
332.50
311.45
344.00
322.70
307.95
297.10
302.60
276.30
238.30
229.20
222.55
207.10
171.05
157.65
152.75
184.05
206.95
302.20
331.15
343.55
368.80
336.50
351.20
335.90
338.95
287.20
266.00
275.55
302.35
317.75
308.10
322.80
310.25
305.30
322.30
302.70
266.80
256.20
285.60
312.80
336.55
352.90
356.05
363.50
351.75
373.30
322.35
243.00
214.05
216.80
202.90
193.00
173.10
167.10
164.55
156.85
149.00
139.55
144.85

MCX spot price


(Rs/kg)
Monthly average
340.79
317.67
339.68
328.57
311.67
297.10
301.79
299.65
253.47
240.68
224.96
225.30
193.60
164.42
160.27
150.71
183.84
234.15
316.15
323.73
353.54
347.40
347.74
345.20
338.21
311.64
277.73
265.21
272.67
314.47
306.55
302.11
319.77
304.17
314.06
325.47
282.28
253.10
255.33
298.94
313.39
341.78
351.78
360.01
360.16
337.15
361.81
284.15
225.05
218.87
207.15
204.19
198.03
184.43
167.28
163.66
155.47
150.13
135.66
143.70

Open
7521.75
6755.00
7405.00
6940.00
6502.00
6180.00
6310.00
5781.00
4984.00
4819.75
4450.00
4040.00
3390.00
3224.50
3055.00
3640.00
4215.00
6395.00
7520.00
8065.00
8530.00
7945.00
8585.00
8380.00
8415.00
7299.75
6750.00
7050.00
7760.00
8025.50
7480.00
7980.25
7580.00
7455.00
7760.00
6900.00
6100.00
5760.00
6300.00
7095.00
7420.00
7602.00
7615.00
7800.00
7475.00
7915.00
7240.00
5405.00
4780.00
4830.00
4400.00
4243.00
3915.00
3790.00
3615.00
3520.00
3311.00
3045.00
3190.00
3287.00

LME futures price


(USD/tonne)

High
Low
Close
7878.00
7450.00
7796.00
7423.75
7060.00
6732.00
6530.00
6549.00
5755.00
5388.00
4848.00
4925.00
4168.00
3669.00
3610.00
3710.00
4435.00
6530.00
7520.00
8082.00
8940.00
8620.00
8625.00
8880.00
8820.00
8570.00
7450.00
7075.00
7774.75
8315.00
8155.00
7985.00
8212.00
7695.00
8335.00
8100.00
6935.00
6374.00
6344.00
7229.25
7500.25
7890.00
8110.00
8150.00
8210.00
8010.00
8800.00
7385.00
5510.25
5100.00
4865.25
4518.00
4270.00
4018.00
3835.00
3670.00
3546.00
3435.00
3225.25
3338.00

7245.25
6225.00
6700.00
6762.75
6372.25
5810.00
5855.25
5765.00
4710.00
4685.00
4315.00
3960.75
3340.00
3096.00
3025.00
2817.25
3375.00
3590.00
6170.00
7120.00
7840.00
7760.00
7855.00
8160.00
7611.00
7025.00
6675.00
6317.00
6430.00
7645.00
7085.00
6730.00
7550.00
7050.00
6952.00
6807.00
5796.00
5250.00
5430.00
6250.00
6645.00
7002.00
7150.00
7180.00
7000.00
6410.00
7060.00
5390.00
4650.00
4645.00
4330.00
4240.00
3853.00
3750.00
3489.85
3454.00
3185.00
3025.00
2960.00
3110.00

7790.00
7195.00
6745.00
7375.00
6930.00
6480.00
6159.00
6475.00
5719.00
4967.00
4830.00
4431.00
4040.00
3449.00
3155.00
3070.00
3620.00
4099.00
6360.00
7510.00
8055.00
8510.00
7935.00
8549.00
8390.00
8430.00
7350.00
6675.00
7000.00
7725.00
8020.00
7460.00
8010.00
7560.00
7380.00
7761.00
6860.00
6015.00
5735.00
6330.00
7080.00
7380.00
7545.00
7700.00
7950.00
7320.00
7900.00
6990.00
5390.00
4798.00
4840.00
4395.00
4246.00
3912.00
3769.50
3603.00
3517.00
3319.00
3046.00
3215.00

LME cash
RBI Rate
(USD/tonne)
USD/INR
Monthly average
7462.83
6848.18
7386.25
6981.71
6675.60
6287.98
6196.43
6165.30
5215.54
5013.95
4568.63
4406.55
3749.75
3314.73
3220.69
3071.98
3717.00
4925.70
6990.86
7634.70
8414.04
8260.60
8382.75
8684.93
8439.29
7887.69
7061.02
6587.67
6966.70
8008.43
7648.98
7513.50
7973.91
7475.88
7682.17
7766.47
6452.48
5676.45
5669.66
6675.11
7029.18
7500.39
7602.36
7695.66
7712.10
7197.61
8045.86
6387.78
5102.85
4982.40
4734.33
4576.78
4269.34
4059.76
3857.84
3797.75
3614.21
3524.07
3249.10
3394.48

45.50
46.33
45.96
46.63
46.59
46.72
48.39
48.36
48.47
47.78
48.61
50.08
51.23
49.22
48.83
48.64
49.00
48.64
45.56
42.94
42.84
42.82
42.13
40.02
40.36
39.73
39.37
39.44
39.44
39.51
40.34
40.82
40.42
40.77
40.78
42.15
44.03
44.16
44.33
44.63
44.85
45.47
46.12
46.54
46.46
46.06
45.41
44.95
44.48
44.33
44.40
45.65
45.73
44.82
43.92
43.63
43.54
43.59
43.49
43.74

Open
60690.00
55100.00
59400.00
54350.00
50210.00
49320.00
49100.00
46920.00
40500.00
38400.00
38850.00
34450.00
28540.00
26400.00
26080.00
29350.00
32410.00
53820.00
59750.00
61650.00
63200.00
61100.00
64700.00
65450.00
68000.00
62800.00
58900.00
61180.00
64500.00
67310.00
65400.00
68030.00
63100.00
64720.00
71730.00
62900.00
57650.00
55500.00
61390.00
66610.00
69800.00
71250.00
69700.00
68120.00
64000.00
71500.00
70120.00
50200.00
46150.00
48540.00
42700.00
38290.00
37010.00
37210.00
35050.00
35530.00
33950.00
32500.00
35200.00
33630.00

SHFE futures price (Yuan/tonne)


High
Low
61400.00
58920.00
63000.00
60380.00
55000.00
51580.00
50930.00
51490.00
45520.00
43000.00
40720.00
45000.00
35810.00
30200.00
30100.00
29800.00
34200.00
53820.00
59910.00
61800.00
64800.00
63440.00
65510.00
66960.00
69880.00
69300.00
64480.00
63000.00
64560.00
67450.00
67850.00
68150.00
70340.00
66200.00
72900.00
74930.00
63300.00
59980.00
61390.00
66700.00
70200.00
72800.00
75200.00
70280.00
72100.00
72000.00
83770.00
69990.00
50990.00
50580.00
46950.00
42800.00
39400.00
38480.00
36950.00
35780.00
36090.00
35490.00
36380.00
36700.00

57220.00
51610.00
55500.00
53330.00
50100.00
48400.00
46000.00
45940.00
38820.00
37500.00
35100.00
34420.00
27400.00
25400.00
25900.00
23650.00
28550.00
31140.00
53850.00
57500.00
61260.00
59930.00
60130.00
63750.00
63430.00
62000.00
58000.00
54850.00
52700.00
64140.00
64060.00
61360.00
62900.00
60100.00
60320.00
62620.00
55040.00
52140.00
52150.00
59990.00
62100.00
69100.00
68340.00
65610.00
60540.00
54050.00
69920.00
50200.00
46000.00
45250.00
42600.00
37890.00
36000.00
36910.00
34860.00
33750.00
33680.00
32340.00
31500.00
33410.00

Close
60890.00
57800.00
56240.00
59440.00
54210.00
51100.00
47680.00
49860.00
45260.00
40710.00
37400.00
37280.00
34140.00
28640.00
26370.00
24610.00
29530.00
32350.00
56070.00
59920.00
61980.00
63160.00
60900.00
65210.00
66040.00
67900.00
61990.00
58730.00
59540.00
65130.00
67610.00
65240.00
67820.00
63150.00
63890.00
68980.00
62090.00
57740.00
54470.00
61090.00
66010.00
69600.00
71030.00
67630.00
67270.00
61440.00
73370.00
67430.00
50260.00
45900.00
46680.00
41930.00
37910.00
37250.00
36570.00
35250.00
35720.00
34610.00
32370.00
34830.00

CNY/INR spot
Dollar index
Monthly average
6.66
6.78
6.73
6.83
6.83
6.84
7.09
7.08
7.09
6.99
7.12
7.34
7.50
7.21
7.14
7.11
7.18
7.12
6.67
6.28
6.26
6.22
6.04
5.72
5.70
5.55
5.43
5.35
5.32
5.27
5.36
5.38
5.34
5.34
5.32
5.46
5.68
5.69
5.69
5.70
5.70
5.75
5.81
5.84
5.82
5.75
5.66
5.61
5.54
5.51
5.50
5.65
5.65
5.54
5.43
5.39
5.29
5.26
5.25
5.03

80.81
80.27
77.98
77.00
75.40
76.17
77.19
78.53
79.71
80.26
82.11
85.55
86.71
86.84
84.83
83.65
86.77
83.53
78.37
76.21
72.79
73.41
73.05
72.38
72.72
75.77
76.00
76.79
75.67
77.78
79.14
80.87
80.61
82.21
82.01
81.95
83.17
84.28
84.58
83.07
84.72
86.11
85.25
84.91
85.61
85.37
84.69
88.13
89.58
90.26
88.83
90.63
91.37
89.54
87.99
87.86
89.55
88.33
85.63
84.24

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 159

Non-agricultural commodities

Copper Mine Production 2009e


SHFE
China

USA

6%

7%

Peru

8%

Others

45%

Chile

34%

Source: USGS, Note: e estimates

Copper Consumption 2009

Others

25%

China

38%

Japan

5%

North America

12%

Europe

20%

Source: USGS

Copper Prices, Chinese Imports & Rolling correlation of LME prices Vs Inventory
9000

LME futures (USD/tonne) - LHS

8000

Chinese Wrought Copper Imports (100 tonnes) (LHS)

7000

Rolling Correlation prices vs LME stocks - 1 Year

0.5

6000
0

5000
4000

-0.5

3000
2000

-1

1000
Apr 08

Mar 09

Jun 06

May 07

Jul 05

Aug 04

Oct 02

Sep 03

Dec 00

Nov 01

Feb 99

Jan 00

Apr 97

Mar 98

May 96

Jul 94

Jun 95

Aug 93

Oct 91

Sep 92

Dec 89

Nov 90

Feb 88

Feb 10

-1.5

0
Jan 89

Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest


Mar-10
2706875
28860
2677258
425778
9127818
387756
Feb-10
3006321
19109
2572386
414528
6443898
398950
Jan-10
2233714
26301
2267628
403863
8460164
386270
Dec-09
1840574
31609
1902413
403734
7038264
302750
Nov-09
2138686
30367
2020273
421021
7397160
357234
Oct-09
2293803
25854
2064646
408826
6620316
336118
Sep-09
2549646
24337
2032421
401290
12722510
305826
Aug-09
3130380
24446
1986494
402269
15452970
374320
Jul-09
2940752
33729
1960979
400338
19918484
448700
Jun-09
3148890
21583
2165255
401240
15306970
426042
May-09
2672464
26146
1870927
399933
13410360
404172
Apr-09
2692519
20413
2350852
406387
17493624
402338
Mar-09
2175657
18590
2284177
411286
13334674
439066
Feb-09
1877051
15178
1702722
481490
8621472
324534
Jan-09
2141842
25082
2314469
491820
6108054
266182
Dec-08
1495127
22176
1908795
486962
8676564
343614
Nov-08
1847627
11984
2546098
550760
5197084
262170
Oct-08
1694342
14105
3004252
521086
2353198
159046
Sep-08
1044217
14983
2619189
496407
3274924
205972
Aug-08
920891
9315
1863668
463749
2815716
177792
Jul-08
914542
11792
2248126
450061
1313756
128874
Jun-08
769001
16182
1828570
450316
1589422
146068
May-08
896748
10514
1724399
444647
1747730
160086
Apr-08
1032376
11164
2004746
467061
2037268
149586
Mar-08
1007753
9144
1960112
486002
3049558
154856
Feb-08
1378689
13275
2231546
497810
2665180
182148
Jan-08
1276483
12604
2335854
481440
5158030
175908
Dec-07
912928
15695
1424933
427225
5928002
183716
Nov-07
1159320
10949
2165031
430963
4227808
199102
Oct-07
1023183
16433
1735112
403830
1377392
131320
Sep-07
1007536
13682
1674178
393590
1698136
133956
Aug-07
1480144
12226
2214438
237662
3211484
138914
Jul-07
1225331
15565
1713515
243282
3896062
155206
Jun-07
1607857
13266
1739912
245422
3112020
126614
May-07
1672952
12807
1711033
250544
2181252
115830
Apr-07
1577270
10940
1661035
244262
2641610
120162
Mar-07
1280007
10035
1711176
239035
1526036
117194
Feb-07
1223224
11961
1538992
241525
734540
101622
Jan-07
1205754
22864
1751103
239883
1146412
96362
Dec-06
636579
19532
1289754
216457
610830
77744
Nov-06
871936
18552
1516229
224000
701874
75848
Oct-06
539737
11657
1320963
217759
304364
64456
Sep-06
492788
7330
1580518
223339
1015788
70904
Aug-06
572901
6606
1472340
223185
1303582
85376
Jul-06
503552
4508
1238460
217765
1191158
56888
Jun-06
660822
5323
1398156
225347
1252768
83430
May-06
517588
7216
1706156
243177
765734
86976
Apr-06
278370
6368
1785516
247115
1085446
84036
Mar-06
115344
5242
1848574
251178
1062264
108698
Feb-06
70652
2643
1708272
237243
574948
97870
Jan-06
33695
2174
1729221
227253
677818
75868
Dec-05
31556
2178
-
-
1271624
105788
Nov-05
37605
2855
-
-
1634112
134036
Oct-05
22505
2209
-
-
948686
121872
Sep-05
14942
1555
-
-
1311456
126746
Aug-05
24040
1556
-
-
1903172
155662
Jul-05
20362
2260
-
-
2103100
163288
Jun-05
25566
647
-
-
2895970
181948
May-05
5688
455
-
-
2465668
214420
Apr-05
212
11
-
-
2722214
157026

Apr 86

LME

Mar 87

Copper trading activity


Month
MCX

Source: LME, China Customs Dept.

Note: Vol and OI in lots; Aggregate volume in all contracts during the month; Cumulative open interest in all contracts at the month-end.
Source: Exchanges websites

160 | Commodity Insights Yearbook 2010

A PwC & MCX Joint Endeavour | 161

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