International Influences

The Role of the External Environment on Democracy and Democratization

Cultural Diffusion of Norms and Values

n

Colonial rule (diffusion of British rule of law and democratic norms) Contemporary diffusion through mass media, international exchanges, students studying abroad, Internet, blogs

Demonstration Effects
n

Snowballing or imitation effect of other transitions. Diffusion of models, movements and techniques (e.g. people power revolutions) East Asia after the Philippines, 1986 (Korea, Taiwan, Burma) Eastern Europe, 1989

Zeitgeist (Spirit of the Times)

n

Models of government gain and lose legitimacy in part depending on the image of power and success, or decline and failure, of different prominent states Which systems are worth emulating? n U.S. , China, India, Russia, Singapore n Fascism, 1920s, 30s n Communism, 1940s, 50s, 60s n Iranian revolution, 1979

Demonstration Effects
n n n

Success of democracies (US, Europe) Travails of democracies (Japan, US, Europe) Authoritarian success? Singapore model China model?

Regional Pressures and Norms

n

n n

European Union. n Conditions for entry, Acquis Communitaire n Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria. Turkey? NATO expansion. OSCE (Organization for Security & Co-operation in Europe)

Regional Pressures and Norms

n

Organization of American States (OAS)

n n

1991: Santiago Commitment (Resolution 1080) 1992: OAS Charter amendment (ability to suspend a member state that defects from democracy) 2001: Inter-American Democratic Charter (strong democratic conditions for membership)

Regional Defense of Democracy: OAS

n

n n n

Peru 1992: Condemns autogolpe, compels restoration of a formal constitutional order with new elections Guatemala 1993: Reverses an attempted autogolpe Paraguay 1996: Preempts incipient military coup Venezuela 2000-present: failure to stem rollback of democracy

Organization of African Unity (OAU) to the African Union (AU)

n

Continued predominance of the norm of non-intervention in the internal affairs of a member state: pure sovereignty But the beginning of sanctions for punishing the overthrow of elected governments (to deter military, not civilian coups) African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM)

APRM, to meet goals of NEPAD, New Partnership for African Development

n

Peer review of individual countries that agree to be assessed, on four dimensions n Democratic governance n Corporate governance n Economic management n Socioeconomic development Emphasis on consensus rather than review, voluntary compliance, sympathetic peers

International Economic Relations

n

Economic dependence, volatility of export earnings, lack of access to markets poor or fluctuating economic performance, legitimacy problems Loss of economic sovereignty (globalization), legitimacy problems Economic assistance to low-income or struggling democracies (Costa Rica, Botswana). Egypt, Tunisia, etc. today.

Foreign Aid
n n

Positive effect of aid to democracies in need Negative effect of strategic assistance to support or stabilize friendly dictatorships
Taiwan, Korea, Thailand, 1950s-70s (but aid in these cases promoted development) n Latin American military dictatorships: Brazil, Argentina, Chile n Africa/Middle East: Zaire, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Iran (Shah) n Today: Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Jordan
n

Effort to Reorganize Foreign Aid

n

Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) n selectivity, rewards for better governance n Condition other economic benefits on democracy and good governance Millennium Challenge Corporation n www.mcc.gov Reorganization of Foreign Aid, integration into Department of State

Sanctions (and threat of sanctions)

Conditions for success: n Specific monitorable goals n Sanctions that hurt the regime more than the people (military sanctions, targeted sanctions on regime elites) n Linkage to Western democracies (economic, social, cultural, geopolitical) n Broad international participation

Sanctions (and threat of sanctions)

Levers: n Aid n Debt relief n Trade n Diplomacy n Elite travel and other benefits

Cases of sanctions
n

Moderate to significant success n South Africa, 1980s n Kenya, 1991-2002 and 2008 n Latin America, late 1970s: military sanctions

Cases of sanctions
n

Failures n Cuba, 1962-present n Burma, 1989-present n North Korea n China, Most Favored Nation status with US

Diplomacy
Mobilization of diplomatic pressure and persuasion (with possible threats of sanctions or penalties) Carter Administration (1977-81) n isolation of Argentine military n deter vote fraud in DR

Diplomacy
Mobilization of diplomatic pressure and persuasion (with possible threats of sanctions or penalties) Reagan Administration (1981-1989) n Philippines (Marcos), 1986 n South Korea (Chun Doo Hwan), 1987 n Chile (Pinochet), 1988, plebiscite n Deter military coup attempts in Bolivia, Central America, South Africa

Diplomacy
Mobilization of diplomatic pressure and persuasion (with possible threats of sanctions or penalties) Bush Administration (1989-1993) n Peaceful reunification of Germany n Support for Eastern Europe transitions n African transitions n Aid freezes, multilateral pressure

Diplomacy
Mobilization of diplomatic pressure and persuasion (with possible threats of sanctions or penalties) Clinton Administration (1993-2001) n NATO Expansion n aid to Russia n pressure on Serbian regime color revolution

Diplomacy
Mobilization of diplomatic pressure and persuasion (with possible threats of sanctions or penalties) G.W. Bush Administration (2001-2009) n democratization by force in Iraq & Afghanistan

What diplomats can do on the ground to support democracy

n

Diplomatic protection, immunity for democracy and human rights activists Pressure: Facilitate or discourage access to the diplomats home capital by host country officials Sanction: Threaten targeted sanctions (e.g. threat to freeze offshore assets of Ukrainian officials during the 2004 Orange Revolution)

What diplomats can do on the ground to support democracy

n

Public diplomacy, supporting democratic values, ideas, and techniques, informing the local public Aid: Small-grant seed money for independent media & human rights & democracy groups Convening: provide a neutral ground for different factions to dialogue, negotiate

What diplomats can do on the ground to support democracy

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Solidarity in symbolic, moral support of human rights defenders and democratic activists on trial or facing repression Reporting back to the home capital to influence foreign policy

What diplomats can do on the ground to support democracy

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Engagement and dialogue with the regime to encourage human rights progress, democratic reform Demarches: formal (private) diplomatic protests of human rights violations, warnings against new bad conduct, and appeals to remove restrictions on NGOs and pursue new political reforms