Ewgy Vol. 18, No. 12, pp. 12851295, 1993 Printed in Great Britain.

03~5442/93 $6.00 + 0.00 Pergamon Press Ltd

Evidence on the Climate Impact of Solar Variations Sallie Baliunast~l and Robert Jastrow* tHarvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and Center of Excellence in Information Systems at Tennessee State University and *Mount Wilson Institute (Received 21 April 19931 Abstract - Friis-Christensen and Lassen report a close correspondence in the last 100 years between average Northern Hemisphere temperatures and changes in the length of the solar magnetic cycle. Observations of the sun and a number of solar-type stars suggest the explanation for this correlation. They reveal that (a) changes in the length of the magnetic activity cycle are correlated with changes in the amplitude of surface magnetic activity; (b) the amplitude changes in turn are positively correlated with changes in the suns brightness. These relationships connect changes in the length of the solar cycle with solar irradiance changes. They supply a physical mechanism for the connection between terrestrial temperatures and the length of the solar cycle reported by Friis-Christensen and Iassen. Application of the same results to the history of solar surface magnetic activity since the Maunder Minimum yields the result that the change in solar irradiance from 1700 to the present could have been as small as 0.1% or as large as 0.7%. The mid-point of that range, a change in solar irradiance of 0.496, is sufficient to explain all or most of the recovery from the Little Ice Age of the 17th Century and most of the half-degree global warming observed during the last 100 years. Satellite observations of solar irradiance over the 1978-1989 period have revealed a climatically insignificant brightness change of 0.1% over that period. Other stars similar to the sun display climatically significant changes of up to 0.6% suggesting that at other times or over longer periods of time the sun may also change by larger amounts than were observed from 1978-1989.

The mean temperature of the earth has risen about 0.5% over the last century. Most of the increase occurred between 1890 and 1940, followed by a smaller decrease from the 1940s through the 1960s and a rise again in the 1970s.l These changes coincided with the accumulation of a significant amount of man-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but the pattern of the observed changes does not match the monotonic rise in temperature predicted by climate models for the greenhouse effect. However, the temperature record closely follows the major changes in solar magnetic activity over the same period. The agreement is particularly close when the comparison is made with the length of the solar cycle as an indicator of solar magnetic activity, as shown in Fig. 1.2

Author for correspondence.

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SALLIE BALIUNAS and ROBERT

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10.0

3
L: E 3 rl 3 ct;

10.5

11.0

. SOLAR ACTIVITY

-0.2

g et

P
11.5

x TEMPERATURE
-* -0.4

12.0 1660

1660

1900

1920

1940

1960

1960

2000

YEAR

Fig. 1. Comparison between Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies (x) (Ref. 2, Jones et al) and solar surface magnetic activity, measured by the length of the solar cycle(+) (Ref. 2, Friis-Christensen and Lassen). The cycle length is inversely correlated with level of surface magnetic activity. (Ref. 23.)

No evident physical mechanism would seem to connect changes in the earths climate with changes in the length of the sunspot cycle or other aspects of the solar activity cycle. The absence of a physical explanation has led to the suggestion that although striking, the correlation between temperature and solar activity may be fortuitous. This interpretation is supported by the fact that the total radiative output associated with surface magnetic activity - involving mainly ultraviolet emission, x-rays and gamma rays - is very small compared to total the solar energy flux in the visible and infrared, and cannot directly affect climate to a significant degree.
Correlation

Between Solar Magnetic Activity and Solar h-radiance

The correlation becomes physically meaningful, however, if the variations in the level of solar magnetic activity are only the surface manifestation of some deep-seated change in the solar interior which affects both the suns magnetic activity and its total energy output. This suggestion finds support in theoretical studies of the effect of changes in the configuration of the magnetic field within the solar convective zone. The theoretical estimates indicate that these changes, by influencing the efficiency of convective transport of energy to the suns surface, can produce changes of the order of (O.l-l.O)% in solar brightness.3 Observations of changes in the solar diameter are compatible with long-term variations of as much 10% in solar brightness.4 A solar change of the order of 1% would correspond to a radiative forcing of 2.4 watts/m2 and would be comparable to the radiative effect of all the greenhouse gases expected to accumulate in the atmosphere in the next 40 years.5 These theoretical estimates of changes in solar brightness are difficult to quantify and can only be regarded as suggestive. Firmer support for a connection between magnetic activity variations and brightness changes is found in observations of the sun and solar-

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type stars.V Satellite observations of the sun from 1978 to 1989 during Solar Cycle 21, combined with observations of solar surface magnetic activity, reveal that solar brightness and surface magnetic activity change are positively correlated (Fig. 2). Observations of solar-type stars, described in more detail below, indicate that this relationship between brightness and surface magnetic activity is common in stars similar to the sun.

Sun 0.10 0.05

El 2 9

3h .d * 0.00 3 2 0 -0.05 3 : 2 -0.10

E E

(a) . . . . . . . . . . . .

0.20 0.10

&
2 5

ACRIM/SMM

0.00

2 (d 4 -0.10
-

=
. . . . I . .I . , . . I . , . . . . lb)

-0.20[ 1975

1980

1985 Year

1990

1995

Fig. 2 (a) Measurement of changes in the suns surface magnetic activity between 1974 and 1992, indicated by the CaII K emission lines. (Ref. 20, Livingston and White 1992) (b) ACRIM - Solar Maximum Mission satellite measurements of the changes in the solar total irradiance between 1978 and 1989. (Ref. 6, Willson and Hudson 1991.)

The change in the suns total irradiance during Solar Cycle 21 was only O.l%, which is too small in amplitude and duration to have a significant climate impact. The 0.1% variation within one solar cycle has been explained as the result of a change in the relative contribution of bright (faculae) and dark magnetic areas (sunspots) on the suns surface.8 However, no theoretical or observational evidence precludes the possibility of larger variations at other times or over longer periods than one cycle. 53 Observations of a relatively small sample of solar-type stars have already revealed brightness changes as large as 0.6% over an activity cycle.7 Before examining the evidence for climatically significant changes in solar brightness, it may be useful to place the suggestion of a sun-climate connection in the context of earlier work.

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Historical Evidence Relating to Solar Control over Global Temperatures

Historical climate records contain evidence suggesting that major climate changes are associated with changes in the suns magnetic activity over century timescales. An analysis of climate records indicates that during the last millennium, protracted periods of cold weather occurred roughly every 200 years - in the 13th, 15th, 17th and 19th centuries.10 The best known of these cold periods was the Little Ice Age of the 17th century. Temperatures in the Little Ice Age are estimated to be (0.4-0.6)% below the average over the last three centuriesll The climate changes in the last thousand years can be compared with the record of solar activity over the same interval, inferred from the abundance of radioactive isotopes, such as carbon-14, in trees. Carbon-14 is produced by cosmic rays in the earths upper atmosphere. During periods of high solar activity, magnetic fields carried into the solar system by the solar wind tend to deflect cosmic rays from the inner part of the solar system, and the production rate of Carbon-14 decreases. During periods of weak solar activity, the cosmic ray intensity increases and the production rate of Carbon-14 rises. A fraction of the Carbon-14 atoms reaches the earths surface and is incorporated into the bodies of trees. Thus, the radiocarbon record, dated by dendrochronology, yields information on changes in solar activity over time.12 Figure 3 shows the Carbon-14 record during the last thousand years.13 The figure indicates surprisingly regular cycles of solar activity, with periods of low activity at approximately 200-year intervals - midway between the 10th and 11th centuries, and in the 13th, 15th, 17th and 19th centuries. These periods of low solar activity roughly match the cold spells in the Lamb climate record for the last millennium.

14

C Production Rate

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

20
30 40 1000

I __--

1200

I _---

1400

I __--

I
1600

I
1800

I
2000

Year
Fig. 3. Changes in carbon-14 production rates (parts per mil, arbitrary scale) associated with changes in solar activity. The negative of the production rate is plotted so that periods of low solar activity appear as low points on the chart. Dates are corrected for the -5O-year residence time of carbon-14 in the atmosphere (Ref. 13.)

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The carbon-14 record of solar activity extends only to the beginning of the 19th century, because the interpretation of the carbon-14 production rates becomes less reliable after ca. 1800.14 However, sunspot records confirm relatively low average solar activity in the 19th century, followed by a rise in the 20th century to the current high level of magnetic activity. Wigley and Kelly have compiled additional evidence for the recurrence of cold periods every few centuries going back 10,000 years. 11 Their climate history is drawn from global records compiled by Riithlisberger on the advance and retreat of glaciers. The pattern of recurring cold periods reported by Wigley and Kelly on the basis of the glacial records is not as regular as Lambs records. However, the glacial data have greater validity because they are global, while the Lamb climate record is regional and may be valid only for northern Europe. Comparing the Carbon-14 record to their climate history, Wigley and Kelly found that six out of the seven most severe decreases in solar activity correspond closely to cold spells in the climate record. One of these coincidences was the Maunder Minimum, the period of very low values of sunspot numbers in the 17th Century which coincided with the Little Ice Age.16 Evidence on Recent Changes in Solar Brightness

Samuel Langley of the Smithsonian Institution initiated, and Charles Greely Abbot continued, a program of measurements of the solar constant that spanned 60 years (19021962) and relied on several measuring stations around the globe. However, the methodology used by Abbot was not adequate to reveal small changes of the order of 1% or less. Inferring changes in solar irradiance of this magnitude from the ground requires that an extremely accurate account be taken of changes in atmospheric transparency with time. The atmospheric transparency in the Abbot measurements was determined from solar spectra recorded on photographic plates, which could not have yielded sufficient accuracy to remove satisfactorily the effects of atmospheric extinction. In addition, a number of undocumented adjustments were made to the data.17 The Smithsonian data have been reanalyzed by Hoyt.18 After for trends in solar brightness over the 30-year period covered by the vations, he concluded that definite values were questionable, and the used to set an upper limit on brightness changes. Hoyt determined the 0.3% over the 30-year period of observation. examining the data Smithsonian obserdata could only be upper limit to be is

The only available direct measurements of solar brightness change that have a useful degree of precision are satellite data, for example, from ACRIM-SMM and Nimbus-7 starting in Solar Cycle 21, shown in Fig. 2ta1.6 As already noted, the change in the suns brightness over that 1Zyear period was only O.l%, but larger changes are possible over intervals of decades to centuries.

Changes in Magnetic Activity in Solar-Type Stars

Solar-type stars - stars similar to the sun in mass and age - display a cyclic magnetic activity similar to the ll-year solar cycle. 19 Changes in surface magnetic activity can be recorded for these stars (whose surface detail is unresolved because of their distance) by spectroscopic methods. On the sun, a close correspondence is observed between magnetic field strength and the strength of the singly ionized emission lines of calcium, the H (396.7 nm) and K (393.4 nm) lines.20 A substantial portion of the emission of the H and K lines results from nonthermal heating by magnetic fields. The H-K emission fluxes observed on stars provide a measure of the intensity of surface magnetic activity averaged over the disk of the star. The changes in the H-K fluxes trace the changes in surface magnetism, e.g., starspot cycles.

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Observations of the H-K fluxes of approximately 100 nearby stars have been made at Mount Wilson Observatory since 1966.19 The solar-type stars observed by this method appearto be either in a cyclic state, in a state of low and flat magnetic activity resembling the Maunder Minimum, or in a transition between the cyclic and Maunder Minimum stateS~9 Examplesof long-termvariations in the surface magnetic activity of solar-type stars are shown in Fig. 4. HD 10476(top panel) is in a cyclic state. HD 10700(bottom panel) is in
the low and relatively flat state of magnetic activity resembling the Maunder Minimum. HD 3651 appears to have been captured in a transition from a cyclic state to a Maunder Minimum state during the 25-year period of observation. Note that the apparent transition to the Maunder minimum is rapid and without warning.

Starspot Cycles 0.30 , , , , I 1 I I

# 1

1 I

ENTERINGMAUNDER MINIMUM 1

0.30

0.25 -

IN THE MAUNDER MINIMUM

0.20 -

Fig. 4. Surface magnetic activity (Ca II H and K emission lines) averaged on a monthly basis in solar-type stars (Ref 19.) The star (HD 10476) at top is in a cyclic state resembling the llyear solar cycle. The middle star (HD 3651) appears to be exiting from a cyclic state into a Maunder Minimum state. Apparently the transition can be rapid - only 10 to 15 years in this case. The bottom star (HD 10700) is in a magnetically flat and low-level state resembling the Maunder Minimum episode on the sun. The yearly gaps in each record are times when the star is above the horizon in daytime, and therefore unobservable. The seasonal spread in the data is caused by the passage of starspots and other magnetic features across the disk of the star during its rotation.

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Changes in Brightness in Solar-Type Stars Photometric observations of brightness changes in solar-type stars have been made at Lowell Observatory in parallel with the magnetic activity measurements over the eightyear interval 19841991. Brightness and surface magnetic activity vary in phase in these stars, as they do in the sun. However, the changes in the brightness of this group of solartype stars can be considerably greater than those observed for the sun itself in the 19781989
period.7

Figure 5 shows the changes in magnetic activity and brightness for HD 10476, a star similar to the sun and displaying a cyclic pattern of variations in surface magnetic activity similar to the 11-year sunspot cycle. As in the case of the sun, the brightness of this star varies in phase with the changes in its level of magnetic activity. However, over the period of observation the magnitude of the brightness change is 0.6%, compared to 0.1% observed for the sun in the magnetic activity cycle of the 1980s.

1.0

1,

1,

(I

I,

1066

1970

1975

1980

1990

(a)

f
l

ii

,i:&
Year

-____________ 3

Fig. 5. (a) Changes in brightness observed for the solar-type star, HD 10476, show a 0.6% drop over seven years. The dispersion of the photometric data within a years observations is caused by starspots carried across the disk of the star by rotation. (b) As in the case of the sun, the brightness varies in phase with simultaneous changes in surface magnetic activity over the same interval, shown by the dashed-line box (Ref. 21 .I

Relation Between Magnetic Activity Change & Brightness Change Figure 6 shows a more general relation between brightness changes and surface magnetic activity changes, based on observations of the sun and ten solar-type stars very close to the sun in mass and age: Surface magnetic activity in this chart is measured by the quantity RHK, which includes corrections designed to minimize the color (and hence

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SALLIEBALIUNAS and ROBERTJASTROW

mass-) dependence of observed surface magnetic activity.19 The fit to the slope from the data in Fig. 6 yields A(Brightness) (%) - (8 f 4) x lo4 A(R)&
(1)

This relationship allows an estimate of the brightness changes accompanying changes in surface magnetic activity, using the strength of the Ca II H and K lines as a proxy.

0.30

0.0

Variation

of Ca II H and K Emission

(AR&lO)

Fig. 6. Relation between changes in brightness and changes (measured by changes in RHK) for a group of solar-type regression fit to the observations (Ref. 21.)

in surface magnetic activity stars. The line is the linear

The indeterminacy in the slope, which is defined by the 95% confidence levels of the individual slopes of the solar-type stars, reflects the scatter in Fig. 6. Zhang et al state that this scatter cannot be attributed entirely to measurement error and may be due partly to time dependence.21 According to that interpretation, the slope for the sun may be larger or smaller over time than it is at present.

Application to the Determination of Solar Brightness Changes Since the Maunder Minimum
We assume that the physical processes in the convective zones of the sun and solartype stars, which lead to the relationship in Fig. 6 or Eq. (1) between changes in brightness and magnetic activity, are also valid over century timescales going back as far as the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century. This assumption is based on the fact that both intervals of time -the eight years of observations that went into Fig. 6 and the 300-odd years going back to the Maunder Minimum - are extremely short compared to the thermal relaxation time of 10s years for perturbations within the convective zone.22

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On the basis of this assumption, we apply Eq. (1) to the solar changes in RHKover the last three centuries, to obtain information on the total change in solar brightness over that interval. While direct measurements of RHK are only available for the last 20-odd years, the solar value of RHR during the Maunder Minimum can be estimated from solartype stars in the non-cyclic phase.21 Inserting the current (decade of 1980s) and Maunder-Minimum values of RHR into Eq. (11, we find that from the Maunder Minimum to the present the suns brightness increased by roughly 0.4%. Uncertainties in the estimate, mainly resulting from the indc terminacy in the slope in Fig. 6 or Eq. (11, yield a range of brightness changes ranging from 0.2% to 0.7%. This result is consistent with the estimate by Wigley and Kelly that a drop of (0.22-0.55)% in solar irradiance from the 17th century to the present can explain the cold climate of the Little Ice Age. 11 In addition, the timing of solar brightness changes over the last 350 years can be obtained from the transformation of the sunspot record to RHK values. A Relationship Between Magnetic Activity Change and Changes in Cycle Length Figure 7(a), derived from sunspot records for the last 250 years, shows the amplitude of the sunspot cycle versus the length of the cycle. The length of the magnetic cycle period is seen to be inversely related to the amplitude of surface magnetic activity changes within a cycle; the shorter the cycle, the greater the amplitude of surface magnetic activity. Figure 7(a) confirms that the length of the sunspot cycle is related to solar surface magnetic activity. F_
60 -

1750 to 1990 60 40 & Sun -,

(a)
6.0

Sunspot

1 I

Cycle Length

(years)

1 I

Solar-type Stars 1966 to 1991

0.01 I3

10

12

14

16

(116

Stellar Activity Cycle Length P,

(years)

Fig. 7. (a) Amplitude of the sunspot cycle vs. length of the cycle, for the period 1750 - 1990 (Ref. 23.) fb) Relation between magnetic cycle amplitude and length of cycle for a group of
solar-type stars (Ref. 23.) The lines are a linear regression fit to the observations.

The relationship exhibited in Fig. 7(a), combined with the observations connecting changes in the magnetic activity of the sun with changes in its brightness, leads to the con-

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SALLIE BALIUNAS and ROBERT JASTROW

elusion that short solar cycle periods are associated with larger amplitudes of solar brightness change.23 This result suggests that the observed correlation between changes in the suns cycle period and changes in global temperature observed by Friis-Christensen and Lassen is a significant physical relationship rather than a fortuitous correspondence. A similar relationship between brightness and length of cycle period can be derived from observations of these quantities for solar-type stars [Fig. 7(b)l.a The trend in Fig. 7(b) is qualitatively similar to the trend obtained for the sun [Fig. 7(a)]: When the length of the magnetic activity cycle decreases, the amplitude of the cycle increases, and from Eq. (11, the stars brightness also increases. Independent Determination of Solar Brightness Changes Since the Maunder Minimum The relationships indicated by Fig. 7 provide a second means of estimating past solar brightness changes over the 250-year interval for which records on sunspots and sunspot cycle lengths are available. The estimate may be made using either the data from the sun or the data from the group of solar-type stars. First, combining the relationship between cycle period and cycle amplitude for the sun in Fig. 7(a) with the relationship between cycle amplitude and brightness change in Fig. 6, we find an increase in solar brightness of zGO.l% from ca. 1750 to 1990. Second, using the relationship between cycle period and cycle amplitude for solar-type stars [Fig. 7(b) instead of Fig. 7(a)], we find an increase in brightness of 50.2%. These results, added to the previous range of estimates of as small as 0.2 to as large as 0.7% for the increase in the suns brightness since the Maunder Minimum, lead to an extended range of 0.1% to 0.7% for the estimated increase in brightness since that period. As noted earlier, the low end of this range would not have an appreciable climate impact. The midpoint of the range, 0.496, agrees well with climate-model estimates of the increase in solar irradiance requird to account for the recovery from the Little Ice Age. The indeterminacy in the results obtained by the three methods of estimating changes in solar brightness suggests that it is premature to accept a definitive determination of solar brightness change based on changes in the suns magnetic activity. However, the demonstration of a qualitative correlation between cycle period and brightness change for the sun and solar-type stars illuminates the result obtained by Friis-Christensen and Lassen, and is potentially of considerable interest to the climate change problem. Acknowledgments We would like to thank the Electric Power Research Institute, the Richard Lounsbery Foundation, the Mobil Foundation, and the Langley-Abbot Scholarly Studies and James Arthur Funds of the Smithsonian Institution for the support which made this research possible. We are also grateful to E.N. Parker, W. Soon and Q. Zhang for several illuminating conversations regarding the theoretical aspects of the relation connecting solar magnetic activity and brightness changes in the sun. We are indebted to O.R. White, W. Livingston, H. Hudson and R. Willson for solar data. The observations at Mount Wilson Observatory were made possible as a result of a collaborative agreement between the Carnegie Institution of Washington and the Mount Wilson Institute. REFERENCES 1. P.D. Jones, J. Clim. 1, 654 (1988); J. Hansen and S. Lebedeff, I. Geophys. Res. 92, 13,345 (1987).

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2. E. Friis-Christensen and K. Lasaen, science 254,698 (1991). The temperature records are from P.D. Jones et al, 1. Cff~oZ. AppZ. Meteor. 25,161 (19861, smoothed with a 5year running mean. 3. R.L. Gilliland, Solar Radiutiw Output Variations: Proceedings of a 289-300, ed. I. Foukal (NCAR) (1987). 4. R.L. Gilliland, Astrophvs. J. 253,399 (1982). 5. T.M.L. Wigley and S.C.B. Raper, Nature 357,293 09921. It should be noted that the changes in solar irradiance at each frequency, rather than its change integrated over frequency, must be known. At present, information is limited to bolometric change in the sun, and photometric change in the visible for solar-type stars. 6. R.C. Willson and H.S. Hudson, IVntute 352, 42 0991); D-V. Hoyt, H.L. Kyle, JR. Hickey and R.H. Maschoff, J. Geep@s. Res. 97,Sl 0992).
7. R.R. Radick, G.W. Lockwood
Wodshop, pp.

and S.L. Baliunas, Science 247, 39 (1990); G.W. Lockwood, B.A. Shiff, S.L. Baliunas and RR. Radick, Nature 360,653 (1992).
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8. P. Foukal and J. Lean, Science 257, 504 (1990); K.H. Schatten, Geophys. 121 0988). 9. J. Lean, A. Skumanich and 0. White, Geop@. Res. L&s. 19, 1591 09921, 10. F. Riithlisberger, 10,000 Tahre Gletscherg&chte (1986).
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15,

de Erde, Aurau: Verlag Sauerlander

T.M.L. Wigley and P.M. Kelly, Phil. Trans. Roy. Sot. London A 330,547 (1990). H. de Vries, Proc. K. Ned. Ah-l. Wet. B61, 94 (1958); P. Damon and CP Sonett, The Sun In Time, pp. 360388, ed. C. Sonett, MS. Giampapa and M.S. Mathews, University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona (1991). ;QQQ M. Stuiver and T.F. Braziunas, S 1r n Years, pp. 245-266, ed. Stephenson and Wolfdale, Kluwer (1988).

13.

14. H.E. Suess, Science 122,415 0955). 1s. See Ref. 10. 16. J. Eddy, Science192,1189 (1976). 17. CC. Abbot, L.B. Aldrich and W.H. Hoover, Ann. Astrophys. Obs. Smifhsoniun inst. 6,85 (1942). 18. D.V. Hoyt, Rev. Gee&s. Space P&s. 17, 427 (1979). 19. O.C. Wilson, Astrophys. I., 226, 379 (1978); S-L. Baliunas, in The Sun In Time, op. cit., 809 (1991); S.L. Baliunas et al, in preparation (1993); S.L. Baliunas and R. Jastrow Nature 348,520 (1990).
20. A. Skumanich,

C. Smythe and E.N. Frazier, Asfrop~ys. 1. 200, 747 (19751; C.I. Schrijver, J. Cot& C. Zwaan and S.H. Saar, Astrophys. f. 337, 964 (1989); O.R. White, G.J. Rottman and W.C. Livingston, Geophys Res. Ltrs. 17, 575 (1990); WC. Livingston and O.R. White, personal communication (1992).

21. Q. Zhing, W. Soon, S.L. Baliunas, G.W. Lockwood, B.A. Skiff and R.R. Radick, in preparation (1993).
22. G. Newkirk, Jr., Ann. Rev. Astrop&

21, 429 (1983).

23. S.L. Baliunas, W. Soon and Q. Zhang, in preparation (1993).

24. J. Beer, U. Siegenthaler, G. Bonani, R.C. Finkel, H. Oeschger, M. Suter and W. Wolfi, Nature 331,675 (1985); J. Beer, A. Blinov and G. Bonani, Nature 347,164 (1990).