As part of a flood management and environmental sanitation strategy, Vietnams Department of Agriculture and Rural Development has undertaken

the relocation of particularly vulnerable communities along river banks (Dun 2009). Although these relocations are often within a radius of 12 km, the potential disruption of social networks poses a risk to peoples livelihoods (Warner 2010). As the impacts of sea-level rise and tropical cyclones reduce adaptation options, the frequency of internal, temporary, and permanent migrations may increase (Warner 2010). Having lost their fisheries and agriculture-based livelihoods, people have in the past chosen to relocate to urban areas. A migrant to Phnom Penh from the Mekong River Delta explained, Flooding occurs every year at my former living place. I could not grow and harvest crops. Life therefore was very miserable. Besides, my family did not know what else we could do other than grow rice and fish. Flooding sometimes threatened our lives. So we came here to find another livelihood (Dun 2009: 17)1

Bus rapid transit (BRT) systems have been praised including by the World Bankfor their performance capability2

New cities should be well located, flexibly regulated, and efficiently connected3: same as footnote 2

Urban development decisions are long-lived. As such, they create substantial inertia in socioeconomic systems. Because the economic system reorganizes itself around infrastructure and urban plans, and because so much of current growth is in cities, this inertia can extend over centuries. A delay in greening city investments may therefore prove costly if it results in a lock-in into technologies that turn out to no longer be appropriate (because of their excessive carbon, land, or water intensity) or settlement patterns that prove vulnerable to changing climatic conditions. Developing countries, which still face a huge
1

TURN DOWN the

Political leadership was on board. Projects went forward rapidly in cities where the mayor or other political leaders had a clear vision for BRT, such as in Bogot, Curitiba, Jakarta, and Ecuadors Guayaquil. Projects were stalled, sometimes for years, in cities where were stalled, sometimes for years, in cities where no such political commitment was present. 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank PlannIng,

ConneCTIng & FInanCIng CITIesnoW

PRIoRITIesFoRCITyleadeRs
3

Political leadership was on board. Projects went forward rapidly in cities where the mayor or other political leaders had a clear vision for BRT, such as in Bogot, Curitiba, Jakarta, and Ecuadors Guayaquil. Projects were stalled, sometimes for years, in cities where were stalled, sometimes for years, in cities where no such political commitment was present. 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank PlannIng,

ConneCTIng & FInanCIng CITIesnoW

PRIoRITIesFoRCITyleadeRs

transport infrastructure gap, have the opportunity to choose their urban forms and their transport development path: low-emission transport or car-dependent transport.4 Experience suggests that demand for car ownership increases dramatically at annual household incomes of $6,000$8,000. If history repeats itself, an additional 2.3 billion cars will be added by 2050, mostly in developing countries, given expected economic growth and past patterns of motorization (Chamon, Mauro, and Okawa 2008). Without policies to encourage high-density urbanization and public transport, high reliance on individual car transport will ensue. Consequences would include high congestioncostly in energy expenditure and time lostand local pollution with significant health impacts. But if public transport is included as a major part of modal structure in urban transport, there is no conflict between a low-emission transport sector and rapid growth or high income. In fact, economies with some of the lowest ratios of energy consumption to GDP in the worldincluding Hong Kong SAR, China; Japan; and Singaporehave experienced extraordinary development over the past few decades. Curitiba and Copenhagen are two examples of where the reliance on cars is lower than average: The city of Curitiba shows that coordinating urban transport with planningto concentrate population around public transportation lines and hubsmakes it possible to maximize the share of trips done with low-energy-consumption modes (Suzuki, Cervero, and Iuchi 2013). The city of Copenhagen was designed following a transit-oriented and bike-friendly approach: starting from a finger planthe identification of few priority development areasthen investing in fiveaxis transit radials and corridors of satellite, railserved new towns (Cervero 1998). But in most world cities, the decrease in the relative price of transport by individual cardue to income growth and improved car energy efficiency has led to decreasing density, increasing sprawl, and rising dependency on individual vehicles. The consequence of the inertia in urban development is an enormous potential for regret if decisions are made without adequate consideration of how conditionssocioeconomic, environmental, and technologicalwill change over time. The potential for regret has always been a challenge for policies with long-term implications, but it has been heightened by climate change and the volatility in energy prices. Avoiding these lock-insand the corresponding regret or retrofitting costsshould be a priority for making decisions on urban planning and urban infrastructure. Of course, building better (cleaner, more resilient, or both) can be more expensive. This tradeoff raises the fear that countries faced with severe financing constraints may need to choose between building right (which may make both economic and environmental sense) and building more (which may be what is required socially). But the additional cost of building greener cities should not be overstated: in the urban sector, the additional cost to build with higher density and with lower energy building thanks to better insulation and more efficient heating systemsis limited and provides multiple cobenefits,
4

Footnote 2 mira lol lo de los buses, if governments leave aside

making this domain a priority for immediate action (Viguie and Hallegatte 2012).
Contributed by Stphane Hallegatte.