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Global Global

Strategy Challenges
Executable
Solutions

2020:
:

france.houdard@exolus.com
March 2011
2011 Exolus.

2011 Exolus.

: . . .

2011 Exolus.


80%

&

17,075,400
2011 Exolus.

1/8th

10
3

:
7 (01 08) IMF 2015

GDP
( , PPP-))

3.0

IMF

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2.6

2.4

2.0
1.8

2x

2.2

1.6
1.4
1.2

2011 Exolus.

2015 f

2014 f

2013 f

2012 f

2011 f

2010 f

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1.0

: GDP
GDP:

6,200 (2009)

10,000 (2020)
2020

GDP

$10,000

2009

$8,000

$6,000

$4,000

$2,000

$0

2011 Exolus.

: ERSUSDA 5

:
6%

(/)

80,000

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000

2011 Exolus.

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

(12.9% , 2009)

12.9%

(23.7% , 2009)

23.7%

2011 Exolus.

: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 7

(19% , 2009)

19%

(10% , 2008)

10%
2011 Exolus.

: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010, British Geological Survey 8

:
(#1)

(18% , 2009)

18 %

(5.5% , 2009)

5.5%

2011 Exolus.

: U.S. Geological Survey 9

: ,
(#1)

(19% , 2009)

19%

(4% share, 2009)

5%

2011 Exolus.

: U.S. Geological Survey 10

: - GDP, ,
> 3 GDP

1+

> 3

2011 Exolus.

3 GDP (PPP)

11

2011 Exolus.

12

: , ,
/

IT

HR

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/

2011 Exolus.

13

1. /: ?

A-
S-

()

2011 Exolus.

(1999 2009)

10.3

458

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119

4.7

50

1.7

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1.1

36

0.6

33

1.1

26

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1.3

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1.4

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: 14

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S-

Isuzu
Hyundai

Chevrolet

Nissan

GAZ

Ford
FIAT

GM

Sollers

Toyota
Volvo

Great Wall

St. Petersburg

ZMA

KIA

KIA

Moscow
BMW

Lada

Renault

Kazan

ZIL
VW

Tolyatti

Ufa

Rostov

Yekaterinburg
Tata Motors
Chelyabinsk

Krasnodar

Skoda
Peugeot
Citroen
Mitsubishi

2011 Exolus.

Geely
IVECO

Paz
Hyundai

GM AVTOVAZ

Tata Motors

LADA

15

1. /: ,
(45,900 ) (41,285 )

()

(45,900 )

(41,285 )

2011 Exolus.

16

1. /: ,
-/

70 100

(45,900 )

SergievoPosadskiy

Dmitrovskiy

Klinskiy

Solnechnoaorskiy
Mitishchinskiy
Istrinskiy
Ryzskiy

Odintsovskiy

Balashikhinskiy

Lenininskiy

Ramenskiy

OrekhovoZuevskiy

Naro-Fominskiy
Eqorevskiy
Chekhovskiy
Stupinskiy

Kolomenskiy

Serpukhovskiy

2011 Exolus.

17

1. /: ,
(84,500 ) (93,030 km)

(84,500 )

()
(93,030 )

2011 Exolus.

18

1. /:
-/ 30 60

(84,500 )

Vsevolzhsky
Viyborgskiy
Primorskiy

Krasnoselskaya
Lomonosov

Koldinskiy
Kirovski

Pushkinsky

Gatchina
Tosnenski

2011 Exolus.

19

2. /:

()
GDP
(, PPP-)

A/S

()

GDP/ A/S-

> 20,000
15,000 - 20,000

10,000- 15,000
5,000 - 10,000

0 - 5,000

A-
S-

7
23
24

21

20

8
10
6
4
19
16
39

17
12
14
42 41 40
-
34
18
2
37
5
38
36

35

33

31
25
27
28
29
26
30

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

32

15

43

22

11

46

45
44

7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.

2011 Exolus.

13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18

19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.

25.
26.
27.
28
29
30.

-
-

31.
32.
33.
34.
35.
36.

37.
38.
39.
40.
41.
42.

43.
44.
45.
46.

: UNDP, National Human Development Report in the Russian Federation 2010

20

2. : /?

(1,000/)

(1,000/)

700

250

600
200
500
150

400

300

100

200
50
100

2011 Exolus.

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2050

2002

2040

2001

2030

2000

2020

1995

2010

1990

: ; Autostat, Other

21

2. : 2015
300 (2015)

(20002015f )

2000

2005

2010

2015F 9

1,500

2,620

4,410

5,240

580

650

750

1,030

170

240

480

850

170

210

390

550

110

160

340

470

110

150

320

440

68

130

280

360

67

100

240

310

63

100

220

300

62

98

210

280

2011 Exolus.

: IMF; , Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets JMCP; Monitor
Analysis; Exolus 22

2. :
21%

600

500

400

300

200

100

2003

2011 Exolus.

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

: 23

3. :

20

Cisco
Boeing

Siemens
Microsoft
Nokia
Intel

EADS
Alstom
Lukoil
Rosatom

2011 Exolus.

Novartis
Honeywell
DuPont

Google

Kodak

Schlumberger

Tata
Nokia Siemens

ABBYY

Johnson & Johnson


IM-TECH

DOW Chemicals
John Deere

: i-gorod 24

3. :
:

25%

15%

45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

2011 Exolus.

: OECD Science, Technology and Industry outlook, 2010

25

2011 Exolus.

26

14
(2009 2011)

%
60

50

40

30

20

10

2011 Exolus.

France

Poland

Mexico

Vietnam

Canada

Indonesia

Australia

Germany

U.K.

Russia

Brazil

India

United States

China

2009 - 2011

27

4,850

20114,8501999120

/GDP
2010/ GDP21%
2010GDP5.1%; 2011 4.7% and 20124.2%
2010GDP3.9 %; 20112%

20102015, 20104,00020158,000

2010201514.2%14.3%14.7%
15.5%

2011 Exolus.

: IMF ; ; ; 28

2020

2020

2020

2020

Slideshare @
http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries
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2011 Exolus.


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